Bitcoin Forum

What do you think?

It's so funny to think that we are living a time where anyone with couple of hundreds dollars can just choose to be millionaire in a couple of years.

EDIT: And I am talking 1 million in todays dollars.

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Whenever these posts start appearing it means a crash is incoming.   ::)

Or 1 million bitcoins for one dollar. Anything is possible.

Anything is possible.
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/022/287/BILL-GATES-bsod.jpg?1255238809

Would you like to donate some money to me then to help me out? :D  I really want to be a millionaire! lol

$1000000 will be $1.52 in 5 years :D

If everyone who had 1 Bitcoin became a millionaire then the world would have far to many millionaires and that status would not be as prestigious as today. Some people have thousands of Bitcoin so do the math, its pretty much impossible.

According to Wikipedia, there are 3 trillion of USD in existence. If bitcoin becomes as big as USD, then 1 btc would be $142000. So probably couple of hundreds dollars is not enough. Maybe couple of thousands of dollars is OK. And I don't think it will take just couple of years... maybe 20 years. Not bad anyway.

some will be billionaire then  ;D

its possible if it is used the same as fiat.. that's only a 12 trillion dollar market cap, which is still far away from ~60 trillion dollars of fiat in the world.

Don't beat around the bush!  Bitcoin is so revolutionary that in 2020 the concept of 1 million dollars will be completely meaningless, and you'll have to explain what paper money was to your grandkids.

It's possible, but there are a few assumptions:

There had to be a complete redistribution of wealth to achieve that
Or are all talking about fiat inflation and in 2020 you can buy 1 bread with 1 bitcoin worth 10 million usd?  ;D

You can't meassure btc alone with fiat.
The import part is, what can you get for 1 btc.

If you can get a house (worth today 500k USD) with 1 coin, then there has to be some major redistribution. That means, we need a lot more fiat in this system, we even need all of it currently available. How likely is that? 1: 10^12 or even less.

It's like a pyramide. To increase the price, we need massive amounts of fiat.


I just ride the bitcoin train as long as it's driving, but I'm not as dellusional to believe we could even reach 1 million per bitcoin in current fiat value. That would be generation wealth out of thin air.

Well there can even theoretically be only 21 million people with 1 Bitcoin and of course the real number will be much lower because many people have much more and  all the lost coins etc. 

And today there is approximately 10 million people today with net worth more than 1 Million excluding their apartment. So your argument basically makes no sense what so ever.

Wannabe millionaires...

I don't see how it is possible. Bitcoin capitalization of 21 trillion dollars is not possible in foreseeable future. Bitcoin should be 7 times more ubiquous than US dollar to make that possible. Not going to happen within a couple of years.

Tax heaven bank accounts hold 30 trillion dollars? But there are only 3 trillion dollars in existence.

Similarly there are only 21 million bitcoins. But bitcoin banks could hold 210 million bitcoins off the block chain.

So I wouldn't compare capitalization of 21 million real bitcoins to capitalization of 30 trillion of virtual dollars.

Anyone who has thousands of bitcoins right now, isn't going to hold onto every single one of them without selling some along the way, unless they were already rich and it wouldn't have made a difference or impact to them.

A bit on the chain is worth ten in the bank?

If it works this way with USD, why wouldn't it work with BTC?

Edit: virtual BTC will debase the real ones same way as virtual USD debases paper bills, but they will probably have equal value ($100 bill has almost the same value as $100 bank deposit).

The bubble will pop.

You mean traditional banks, bitcoin rally or both? ;)

You know that dollar isn't the only currency in the world?

It will happen eventually, there will be so many millionaires, but what will they do for the good of society? They should take the role of creating job and improve the living environment of everyone :)

+1

I did a quick search and apparently around ~12 million people in the world are millionaires. It just seems disproportionate to me to think that even 5 Million people with 1 Bitcoin could become millionaires. Obviously this discounts the possibility of Bitcoin becoming the new world currency. I should add that it is Friday and I have been drinking lots of beer so I might disagree with my posts tomorrow.  :D

By the way everyone talks on here, it seems like that USD is the only currency ...

Oh, the bankers will try to fractionalize Bitcoin for sure.

The problem is in your example the banks would have 10-to-1 leverage, and at some point will have a squeeze that will turn into a run on the bank. Today this happens all the time, but the FED is able to print and backstop the banks at will, or run other special liquidity programs, which have the effect of preventing a run from ever happening, but slowing destroys the dollar. But with Bitcoin there will be no FED to provide liquidity. People will learn the hard way to not do business with leveraged banks (something that was common knowledge just 2-3 generations ago).

Any bank providing 10-to-1 leverage will get wiped out, and the end result will be that banks do not fractionalize Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is like a vacuum sucking the money wasted in the economy from a corrupt and inefficient monetary system and transferring those funds to the early adopters. It's not a zero-sum game, the number of millionaires in the world goes up. Bitcoin creates new wealth by virtue of its value as a monetary infrastructure for society.

So 30 trillion is not the sum of safe heaven usd accounts, but just an usd evaluation of deposits in all the currencies?

This is why I think $100,000 is a very high top for bitcoin.  I expect something in the 5 digit range honestly.

A bank account is not a container that "holds" currency.  When you deposit a $100 bill at your local bank, they don't take that physical bill and put it "in" your account.

Most of the "dollars" in the world are in the form of US Treasury paper.  Paper dollars are only a tiny fraction of the dollars in the world.

1- What can you buy with a 1 million $ if it happens that's what matters .

2- Many will get out on the way up at 1K 2K ... etc .

3- If it spikes to 1 million $ you wont be able to get out , it is a temp spike then back down , exchanges down ... etc .

4- We are currently in a bubble as it is yes it may spike to few Ks but that's it a spike and @ $100 again is not out of the question .

Just tell me how much million dollars a cup of tea will cost that day.

By 2020 we will be able to ride our flying cars to different countries to arbitrage localbitcoins very easily.

That's more like it! 

By 2020 You'll be able to send bitcoin (and only bitcoin) to Magrathea 2.0 to purchase custom universes.

I think $1 million by 2020 is pessimistic.

youse a crazy rabbit.

Ever noticed how several mil on the markets push the so called bitcoin market cap up by a few bil? So atm there's like 100 times less at the exhanges than the market cap. looking at future pricing and extrapolating a bit it looks like 1 trillion on the exhanges could result in 100 trillion market cap easily. Resulting in a price of over 4 mil. Imo, we'll reach a mil/btc easily.

It's quite possible for a bitcoin to be worth US$1 million without 21 million * US$1 million having being spent on buying them, or even that much fiat existing in the world.  Price is based solely on the last price bitcoin was traded for.  Maybe we will see a speculative bubble of 'investors' swapping bitcoins between themselves until the price really skyrockets.  The real test is whether even a small proportion of them can cash out without crashing the price.

As has been said, there doesn't need to be enough wealth in the world for something to be worth a certain amount. If everyone tried to sell all their bitcoins now they value would plummet to nothing almost instantly.
Supply and demand, if people want them and the supply isn't there than the value goes up.

We all need to get a drink and chill out

Some of the future visions on here are positively scary..

This. There is so little money on exchanges now, so the money on exchanges has to increase at least 1000x  :o

those comments always make me keep my Bitcoins in my wallet instead of using them :(

I hope u won't overkeep them.

i think there is about 350 000 bitcoin owners in the world. if they all became milionaires/billionaires/dagobertducks they are still nothing compared to the currently at least 12 million existing millionaires.

Not all bitcoin owners have 1 BTC. For example me.

And for the price 1 Million dollars per coin, it really doesnt matter if some have thousands of Bitcoin, or many under 1 Bitcoin, there will be only 21 Million coins total :)

To add some perspective, the ~30,000 Bitcoins seized by the FBI from silkroad would be worth $30,000,000,000 if each Bitcoin was worth $1mil.

Well, Credit Suisse does expect the number of millionaires worldwide to increase by about 18 million in the next 5 years.  :)

If they manage to find the rest of the 600,000 or so perhaps BTC would save face on some of the US deficit issues somewhat lol.

To be honest I think the US Gov would rather spend the $30,000,000,000 on a new nuclear missile or something. Doing something sensible, and for the people is not really their style.

i thought they sized 140 000 btc

I did a quick search as I was not sure and 30,000BTC was mentioned, it might have been more as the article might have been early or based on rumors.

BTC can gone in 1 sec, and fall at 1 usd, because I do not want to pay BTC above 100 usd,
just in case it BTC be recognized by all world bank, then I can pay bitcoin 1000, 5000, or 100 000 usd,
for now 100 usd is maximum.

This exchange describes a real marketplace dynamic.  However, a critical response to it illustrates some important points which most people overlook.

Firstly, given that the bitcoin appreciate, while the fiat depreciates, it would be very unwise for any of them to cash out, except in small part, as they require fiat to pay taxes or transact with atavistic counterparties.  

Secondly, it matters not to the price of bitcoin whether all the holders cash out, so long as others take their place.

Thirdly, while the dynamic addressed in the quotes above plays an important role in the price of bitcoin, it is completely irrelevant to the value of bitcoin.  The price is subject to sentiment, speculation, and imbalances of supply and demand, while the value of bitcoin derives from its monetary uses, and is described by Fisher's quantity theory of money: PQ = MV.

More interesting for society than the question of whether the price of bitcoin reaches $US2013 1mm, is the independent question of whether the monetary value of bitcoin will reach the equivalent of $US2013 1mm.  While the former is very possible, I am skeptical of the latter because bitcoin is unlikely to displace all alternative monetary applications.  Assuming 21mm bitcoin and a velocity of 6, the current global GDP priced in bitcoin implies a maximum value of about $US2013 320,000.    Now it is possible that velocity will be less when currency has better wealth storage utility, and it is possible that maximum value will be reached long before M reaches 21mm, and it is possible that global GDP will grow significantly in the interim, and if the product of these sources of increase rises to about 3, that would suffice to imply a global capacity sufficient to raise the value of bitcoin to 1mm $US2013, however I doubt that bitcoin will ever replace more than half of all monetary applications.  Even half requires a substantial stretch of the imagination.

In short, as a value investor, were bitcoin to rise to 1mm, I would definitely be a seller.  In contrast, at 100k, I might still be a buyer, depending on the prospects for growth in use.

+1

optimistic but maybe

pipe dream. other crypto currencies would pop up, which would bring down BTC value.

blockchain confirmations take too long for BTC to be ubiquitous.

Other currencies are extre,ely unlikely to see network effects adequate to bootstrap significant adoption unless there is some external force applied, creating incentives.

The technical problems with bitcoin are merely software, and can be easily fixed, if the core developer politics are not pathological.

Bitcoin is alternative to banking system so I doubt banks will adopt Bitcoin

In 2020, Chuck Norris admits that he is Satoshi.  Everything that has ever been used as currency instantly converts into bitcoins.

It was increase the libertarian ratio in the millionaire pool


yeah it's the bankers worst fear lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_hBhymFfm8

Then, it will be the real price only if all mass the merchants accept Bitcoin payments.
accepting Bitcoin payment as well as acceptance USD payment.

It will happen. But first... The Great Crash!!!!!

I say by 2018.

Well Virgin Galactic has accepted it  8)

Your right, there are only few such successfull business ventures in history where early adoption yields such high profits. Bitcoin is one of these already, and 1 Million dollars per coin by 2020 is very realistic

realistic.. in a world where our market cap grows to an equivalent of a global savings account. One step at a time..fellows

this kind of chatter is not very important because it looks too far into the future. there are too many factors in play, of which we are not able to predict.. so what's the point in speculating crazy shit like this?

for now, hitting the $1,000 is a milestone, and then maybe $10k.

Off-chain transactions could make BTC viable in the future. For now, we're no where near the point where BTC is going to be used for in person transactions. It's pretty ironic that people think that shorter confirmation times are a benefit for alt-coins. Reducing the confirmation time makes blocks less secure, and other cryptocurrencies don't have anywhere near Bitcoin's hash rate.

Or it could start getting banned in every country kind of like how online gambling got banned in the US. I highly doubt any country will allow a massive underground alternate currency to be traded w/o any kind of regulation. And that would also mean massive drug, sex, and crime trafficking because its anonymous, a lot more than there is now.

when you're paying for that $5 sandwich at subway, i doubt you as the subway (or say gas station) manager or the customer, will care that bitcoin is in theory "more secure." i think there is enough room for BTC to co-exist with LTC.

There are plenty of companies with adoption curves like bitcoin.  But the SEC regulations keep you from investing until you are already at the top of the adoption curve, so you never noticed before.

A lot of you underestimate the size of the global economy. There are hundreds of trillions of dollars which can flow into Bitcoin or the others like Bitshares, Mastercoin or Colored Coin.

1 million dollars is not as big of a deal as you all seem to think.  I think $500,000 is realistic and even $100,000, but 1 million is also realistic and its just a matter of how long it will take to reach it.

Ubiquitous and decentralized then it is impossible to ban. You cannot ban me from betting on a sporting event with my friends using my word of mouth. You cannot stop me from making any bet I want to make with my speech. Now that my speech is global and I can embed it into any electronics device you simply cannot do shit to stop me from that.

And if you stop me, the next version will be even more ubiquitous and decentralized until it's in everyone's clothes.

1 million, yeah sure even  next year when the dollar crashes and the US is dissolved? like 1 Euro is equivalent to $100,000?

or maybe you tend to believe the things you want to be true.

if BTC explodes and becomes ubiquitous, i am certain there will be other cryptocurrencies in the market.. and that would dilute the value of BTC down a bit. there are still issues with BTC that we don't know will be panned out.

hypothetically if BTC were 1 million dollars, that would be a major shift in the way the world works.

Same thing was said about bitcoin until about year ago: Small, niche, hobby currency. That external force you are talking about is simply market demand  ;) cryptocurrencies are still in its early phase, so I doubt anybody can be sure about, who will be number one in ten years. Bitcoin has currently age and networking on its side. I remeber time, when Motorola was pioneer in the emerging field of mobile phones. Where is that company today?  ;)

I would settle for this price by 2020. I would love to see a $1,000,000 but that seems pretty unlikely.

This is delusional, I dont think 6 figures are possible. 5? Sure, but not 6. The Goverment and "powers that be" are not going to let random NEET's that happened to mine and buy thousands of BTC back in the day when they were worth cents becoming the new world 1% clique, let alone people like us that clearly missed the boat and are hoping to become millonaires by owning not a couple BTC but one, lol. Not happening. Hope for a 5 figure peak at best, and keep in mind nothing stops the powers that be to simply declare Bitcoins ilegal if it ever becomes a serious threat to the status quo. Remember the fundamental value of BTC is 0.
So, at this point in time, unless you are already a millonaire that can gamble a couple millions to buy BTC NOW, then wait a bit, see if it gets higher and sell, you are not going to be a millonaire by owning 1 BTC, not in a million years (oh, and we are talking about the purchasing power of current 1MM$, aka all that matters). I hope im wrong but common sense applies to what I said. We are too late to the party. If you are wealthy in BTC, IMO, sell as soon as it gets to 5 figures but be aware of the risk you are taking by not selling now.
PS: If there is a big crash in Bitcoins before a big crash in FIAT, I dont think no one is going to take Bitcoins for real anymore.

To me the real limitation is the 21 million. Although it drives price to some degree... if businesses start accepting it on a large scale, then there may not be enough bitcoins available. Also, the govs. banks, credit card companies etc. that want to kill it only have to buy all the BTC up for sale and horde them, never releasing them again for sale. I am very bullish for the next 5 years for sure though.

You've been here since april, surely you have read enough around to know that the 21 million can be divided into mbtc, nbtc etc? Also, if anyone tries to buy all the BTC's we will get filthy rich and another crypto would take BTC's place.

Oh, I agree that us "mid-adopters" will get rich. Counting on it, actually. I don't know if another crypto could get a foothold too easily. Look at how much trouble litecoin is having. They should probably take what we all consider to be the flaws and improvements needed, and start anothe crypto now and maybe name in something indicating a relationship like Bitcoin 2.0

You cant buy all BTC because not everyone is selling cheaply. This is definitively not a way for banks, credit card companies etc. to destroy Bitcoin

I'll sell my coin for $1 mill, any takers?

Not yet.

The problem is not your coin though. It is worth $1mill. Fair price.

The problem is there are still tons of coins available that are much cheaper.. on Gox, Stamp, coinbase....

Once these are all sold you can sell yours for its real value.

The Bitcoin price in this graph should be 31 December 2011 and NOT 31 December 2012

I prefer to value my BTC in terms of how many Big Mac's at the McDonald's down the street that I can buy with one Bitcoin. It's been hovering around 190 lately, so I'm pretty happy with that, lol. The only problem is that I'm really tempted to order 190 Big Mac's.

Nope, believe it or not, that was the price less than a year ago.

No it wasn't: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig15-minzczsg2012-12-01zeg2012-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv (it was ~$13.5)

maybe. but most people wont hold their coins. so thats the problem (for the most)

Image shows $13.43.

Good luck with that then.


Thank you for playing.  You lost.  You don't appear to understand how to value money.  PQ=MV.


You are in luck:  You are wrong.  Common sense applied to what you said rejects it as erroneous emotional content, devoid of facts or logic.

Quite opposite, coins in circulation is best for Bitcoin adoption.

I noticed a few times in this thread people have said there are only $3trillion is existence... maybe printed dollar bills but far more than $3trillion dollars exist. Also, 60% of the printed dollars aren't in the US, they are held over seas as reserve currency.

The US is $17trillion dollars in debt, so there is $17trillion for a start. Then add on to that the money on the balance sheets of the banks and the money in holding over seas... there are $100's of trillion's of dollars that exist and the FED is printing an extra $85billion per month! You also need to take into consideration that the FED only prints 8% of the money in the US, 92% of the dollars that are printed, are created by the banks.

Then add into that the derivative market which is valued at $1.2quadrillion! That's Quad... with a Q!

I agree, there is so much money there, 1 million dollars per coin is not unrelistic at all. It is only question of time when big players see oppurtunity to save some value to Bitcoin

I dont know about a million dollars a coin.  Thats just ridiculous. "But"  In January when btc was $10 i would have told you its ridiculous to think btc would be approaching $1k 11 months later ..lol
 Its still ridiculous ..im just saying.

Really tho..

Maybe 32 trillion will help.. type "32 trillion" into any search engine and click enter. ( what do we have here )

http://www.levin.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/senators-introduce-bill-to-close-offshore-tax-loopholes/

Tightening noose..

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/tax-haven-closes-for-wealthy-americans/?_r=0

http://www.gggcpas.com/index.cfm/page/No-Place-to-Hide-International-Effort-Underway-to-Catch-Offshore-Tax-Evaders/cdid/11112/pid/10403

The money has got to go somewhere! For sure its not going to sit in those havens.

 
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/BF-AB921C_OFFSH_G_20111209204402.jpg

 

All the country would have to do is ban the sites that are used in Btc trading, like blockchain, mtgox, bitstamp etc. Take a look at North Korea, it can easily be done. It wouldn't completely stop people from using Btc, but it would put a huge dent in it. People will always find ways around it, like how people do in the countries that online gambling are banned in, but it will stop the majority of people from using it.

To reach that goal, devs must first solve the block size limit puzzle ::)

Yes, it would be a huge dent, but just jump on a plane with a flashdrive in your pocket and spend it in another country.
You could also get around URL bans with proxy servers like the chinese do everyday.

I think you are kidding

1mill is extremely unlikely to happen and it seems frivolous to even bandy that number about

In order for a bitcoin to be worth 1 million dollars, the value of a dollar would have to become highly depreciated. Bitcoins are like a black hole that swallows the value from fiat currencies at an ever increasing rate. One does not go up without the other going down.

Additionally, by the time bitcoins are worth 1 million in inflation adjusted terms, no one will be holding hundreds, let alone thousands. It is socio-economic certainty that the coins will disperse. Even a billionaire has bills to pay.

If you can't have both million dollar bitcoins and people who hold thousands, then it's the first that will never materialize not the second.

There will be other cryptocurrencies like Mastercoin and protoshares which could be worth much more than a Bitcoin in price. Mastercoins could go for millions of dollars each in the future.

Just because you cannot fathom the possibility it does not make the math of it incorrect. Do due diligence. Find that 1 million dollars is really not a lot of money when the market cap is in the hundreds of trillions.

You're being a delusional conspiracy theorist. The government just wants maximum tax revenue and does not give a shit about who it comes from. In fact if its Democrats in office they probably like the idea of a new 1% because thats a new tax base for their social programs.

If Bitcoin is declared illegal then people who made millions and who are starting businesses will move to a country where it's not illegal. Why not declare the Internet illegal to prevent Bill Gates from joining the 1%? Do you have any idea how stupid your argument is? If they were going to do that they'd have banned the Internet in the 1980s to prevent people from getting rich off the dot com bubble. Do you really think the government looks that far into the future?


You're not even a bear. $10,000 is just as possible as $1000 and while it's not a certainty if you look at the political climate there is nothing to stop it from reaching $10,000 next year. I don't know how long it will take for a Bitcoin to be worth $1 million and I doubt the Bitcoin will be first to reach that price. I think Mastercoin will probably reach $1 million before the Bitcoin does because it builds on top of Bitcoin but in my opinion it's only a matter of time. Block reward halving, difficulty, scarcity, utility, all work in it's favor.

I doubt 1 Million dollars per coin will happen before 2020. First Bitcoin must handle much more transactions, and official client must have no blockchain version included like Electrum. Of course big merchant support is a must and it must be easy to exchange BTC to fiat and back in every city with bank ATMs. After this, 1 Million dollars is possible

Exactly, there's boatloads of dollars, printed dollars mean absolutely nothing, so many parties can just legally create dollars out of thin air they're basically worthless. Go to any bank and ask for a loan and if they agree to lend you money, that money is created out of nothing, just the very fact that you promise to pay them 'back' 'their' money, creates that money into existence. That's how banks work, and that's the main reason I believe in bitcoins, because money printing would become impossible and wealth would theoretically be distributed more fairly.