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Title: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: topshot on November 23, 2013, 12:56:04 AM We've all sat there at night when we first realised that 'Bitcoin can take over the world! Mwhaahaaha' and imagined our 1 bitcoin turning into $1,000,000+ and perhaps someday that might happen. But here are a couple of my thoughts I've had on that:
1) To replace all money in the world, bitcoin would have to be used everywhere - and that means replacing physical paper/coin promissory notes with the equivalent for btc (i.e. I promise the bearer 1 uBTC - Issued by BOE) as we're always going to need physical money in some form for the time being. It's just easier in certain cases. Like market stalls and funfairs. 2) Lets speculate on the recent price rise and why it won't keep going at that pace: In 30 days it has quadrupled in price. Take that forward a bit at it's exponential rate: By this time next year the price would be: $3,355,443,200. The figures are correct - that's $3BILLION dollars. Another year: $562,949,953,421,312,000 - More money than the entire world by about 10,000 times. It just ain't gonna happen! Expect a crash at any time! 3) To get to prices like $10,000 is possible in the not to distant future, but for it to happen international transactions have to become the norm using BTC. For that to happen, good price stability is required. You can't make a transaction if it's going to change 10% by the time it's delivered. 4) To get to $100,000 it probably needs to deal with most internet transactions and the holdings of a large portion of peoples personal bank accounts. (Think most people with balances under $10K). I'd appreciate your comments. Am I thinking on the right track? ;D Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: fred1111 on November 23, 2013, 01:13:09 AM We've all sat there at night when we first realised that 'Bitcoin can take over the world! Mwhaahaaha' and imagined our 1 bitcoin turning into $1,000,000+ and perhaps someday that might happen. But here are a couple of my thoughts I've had on that: 1) Bitcoin won't replace all money in the world. Bicoin is a commodity and a money transfer system first. It won't be usefull as a currency before it has stabilized, which could take decades.1) To replace all money in the world, bitcoin would have to be used everywhere - and that means replacing physical paper/coin promissory notes with the equivalent for btc (i.e. I promise the bearer 1 uBTC - Issued by BOE) as we're always going to need physical money in some form for the time being. It's just easier in certain cases. Like market stalls and funfairs. 2) Lets speculate on the recent price rise and why it won't keep going at that pace: In 30 days it has quadrupled in price. Take that forward a bit at it's exponential rate: By this time next year the price would be: $3,355,443,200. The figures are correct - that's $3BILLION dollars. Another year: $562,949,953,421,312,000 - More money than the entire world by about 10,000 times. It just ain't gonna happen! Expect a crash at any time! 3) To get to prices like $10,000 is possible in the not to distant future, but for it to happen international transactions have to become the norm using BTC. For that to happen, good price stability is required. You can't make a transaction if it's going to change 10% by the time it's delivered. 4) To get to $100,000 it probably needs to deal with most internet transactions and the holdings of a large portion of peoples personal bank accounts. (Think most people with balances under $10K). I'd appreciate your comments. Am I thinking on the right track? ;D 2) Bitcoin's rise will happen quickly because when people realize what it will be worth, they don't hold off buying just to make a pretty chart. 3) Bitcoin will be stable enough for this sooner than most people think (< 5 years) 4) Money in bitcoins does not come from people's "personal bank accounts", but from a diversification of investment. Money that would go to gold, silver, stocks, etc... goes into bitcoin instead, most of it as a speculative investment as of today. Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: dasein on November 23, 2013, 01:13:34 AM We've all sat there at night when we first realised that 'Bitcoin can take over the world! Mwhaahaaha' and imagined our 1 bitcoin turning into $1,000,000+ and perhaps someday that might happen. But here are a couple of my thoughts I've had on that: 1) To replace all money in the world, bitcoin would have to be used everywhere - and that means replacing physical paper/coin promissory notes with the equivalent for btc (i.e. I promise the bearer 1 uBTC - Issued by BOE) as we're always going to need physical money in some form for the time being. It's just easier in certain cases. Like market stalls and funfairs. 2) Lets speculate on the recent price rise and why it won't keep going at that pace: In 30 days it has quadrupled in price. Take that forward a bit at it's exponential rate: By this time next year the price would be: $3,355,443,200. The figures are correct - that's $3BILLION dollars. Another year: $562,949,953,421,312,000 - More money than the entire world by about 10,000 times. It just ain't gonna happen! Expect a crash at any time! 3) To get to prices like $10,000 is possible in the not to distant future, but for it to happen international transactions have to become the norm using BTC. For that to happen, good price stability is required. You can't make a transaction if it's going to change 10% by the time it's delivered. 4) To get to $100,000 it probably needs to deal with most internet transactions and the holdings of a large portion of peoples personal bank accounts. (Think most people with balances under $10K). I'd appreciate your comments. Am I thinking on the right track? ;D 1) bitcoin is going to help the world create more wealth and grow more quickly 2) it can't go on forever, but it can be the steep part of an S-curve 3) + 4) speculation can drive it to 100K ahead of infrastructure, bitcoin's future can get "priced in" rapidly Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: utarinues on November 23, 2013, 01:16:43 AM 2) Lets speculate on the recent price rise and why it won't keep going at that pace: In 30 days it has quadrupled in price. Take that forward a bit at it's exponential rate: By this time next year the price would be: $3,355,443,200. The figures are correct - that's $3BILLION dollars. Another year: $562,949,953,421,312,000 - More money than the entire world by about 10,000 times. It just ain't gonna happen! Expect a crash at any time! You cant calculate market cap by current price*num bitcoins because you can get only the $ available at exchanges. And every BTC you sell decrease the current price a bit Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: superduh on November 23, 2013, 01:20:26 AM We've all sat there at night when we first realised that 'Bitcoin can take over the world! Mwhaahaaha' and imagined our 1 bitcoin turning into $1,000,000+ and perhaps someday that might happen. But here are a couple of my thoughts I've had on that: 1) To replace all money in the world, bitcoin would have to be used everywhere - and that means replacing physical paper/coin promissory notes with the equivalent for btc (i.e. I promise the bearer 1 uBTC - Issued by BOE) as we're always going to need physical money in some form for the time being. It's just easier in certain cases. Like market stalls and funfairs. 2) Lets speculate on the recent price rise and why it won't keep going at that pace: In 30 days it has quadrupled in price. Take that forward a bit at it's exponential rate: By this time next year the price would be: $3,355,443,200. The figures are correct - that's $3BILLION dollars. Another year: $562,949,953,421,312,000 - More money than the entire world by about 10,000 times. It just ain't gonna happen! Expect a crash at any time! 3) To get to prices like $10,000 is possible in the not to distant future, but for it to happen international transactions have to become the norm using BTC. For that to happen, good price stability is required. You can't make a transaction if it's going to change 10% by the time it's delivered. 4) To get to $100,000 it probably needs to deal with most internet transactions and the holdings of a large portion of peoples personal bank accounts. (Think most people with balances under $10K). I'd appreciate your comments. Am I thinking on the right track? ;D or just suck up golds "non intrinsic" value down to 1 trillion dollars from 7? sounds good to me :) Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: Siegfried on November 23, 2013, 02:34:22 AM 3) To get to prices like $10,000 is possible in the not to distant future, but for it to happen international transactions have to become the norm using BTC. For that to happen, good price stability is required. You can't make a transaction if it's going to change 10% by the time it's delivered. 4) To get to $100,000 it probably needs to deal with most internet transactions and the holdings of a large portion of peoples personal bank accounts. (Think most people with balances under $10K). I think 10,000 is possible on the strength of speculation and use as a store of value alone. To reach 100,000 would probably require widespread use as a global payment system. Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: windjc on November 23, 2013, 02:43:20 AM 3) To get to prices like $10,000 is possible in the not to distant future, but for it to happen international transactions have to become the norm using BTC. For that to happen, good price stability is required. You can't make a transaction if it's going to change 10% by the time it's delivered. 4) To get to $100,000 it probably needs to deal with most internet transactions and the holdings of a large portion of peoples personal bank accounts. (Think most people with balances under $10K). I think 10,000 is possible on the strength of speculation and use as a store of value alone. To reach 100,000 would probably require widespread use as a global payment system. I agree we can probably get to $10k mostly on speculation, especially Wall Street speculation. However, I don't know if bitcoin has to be a global currency. It could be used as a transmitter and as a payment system in certain niche countries and still get to 100k Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: baggage on November 23, 2013, 02:45:33 AM To reach 100,000 would probably require widespread use as a global payment system.
[/quote] Not to disagree but what would keep this from happening? Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: romerun on November 23, 2013, 03:01:51 AM from the exp chart, it should be 100,000 by Sep. 2016, hard to believe, but possible since the marketcap will be just 1.5T
Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: ablewasiereisawelba on November 23, 2013, 03:07:50 AM from the exp chart, it should be 100,000 by Sep. 2016, hard to believe, but possible since the marketcap will be just 1.5T which exponential chart?Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: dasein on November 23, 2013, 03:33:21 AM from the exp chart, it should be 100,000 by Sep. 2016, hard to believe, but possible since the marketcap will be just 1.5T which exponential chart?https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0 Title: Re: Why the price can't keep rising like a rocket today Post by: romerun on November 23, 2013, 03:44:43 AM http://imgur.com/b5m1E1O
at the current price we actually are too high for this period of time |