Bitcoin Forum

It isn't even funny anymore watching you guys lose money. Even after all the flamming and troll calling you have done.

For like 2 months I have been warning many of you that the price will fall and that you should sell your bitcoins. Even during the recent run to $8.70, I told you it would rise to maybe $11 or $12, and then fall even lower. I told you to sell during this mini-rally.

My reasons varied why I said bitcoins are not worth $30, or even $20, or even $8 dollars.

However, the main reason is that there are way too many miners dumping thousands of bitcoins on the market every single day. buyers of bitcoins are few and far between, why buy when most people mine them for free anyway. The buyers of bitcoins can not afford to pay all those thousands of miners to mine.

Just think about it logically, all these miners want to make hundreds of dollars a week, however, who the heck is going to turn around and pay them for something that has no actual use. You can't use it for anything, it is for the most part totally worthless, and now it keeps losing value like there was no tomorrow. To make it even worse, bitcoins are very unsafe to hold and store. It is a matter of time before your bitcoins are stolen in my opinion. I am sure many buyers do not feel safe taking thousands of dollars of their cash, and then holding it in bitcoins. Personally if I had any significant amount of bitcoins I would be deathly worried that they will get hacked.

The other problem you guys face is that I really do believe the big market players have pulled out already after trying to hold the market higher, and lost thousands of dollars trying to do so. There are almost no buyers on the market, except a fake build wall at $9.00 right now.

If all the bitcoins that were mined today were sold, it would push the price of bitcions all the way down below $7.00 right now, assuming that $9.00 bidwall is fake.

So stop being stupid and blind. The money miners make comes from the buyers of bitcoins, but the buyers of bitcoins don't have nearly enough money to subsidize the whole bitcoin mining industry. And with the continuous fall of bitcions over the last months, it will get even worse.

i would not eat them in a house, i would not eat them with a mouse.  i do not like green eggs and ham, i do not like them sam i am.

What are you talking about? The price doesn't have to stay high to make money. It just has to change

Put your money where your mouth(ahum, keyboard) is.

Pay me $30 per BTC (total of ~2500BTC) and I will stop mining immediately.

Show us just how much you care about us(me).

I bet U wanted to be a miner and missed out, so you're bitter.

I WANT TO BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUY!

Sorry, I won't learn my lesson until bitcoin is long dead and buried. Fool, this is not about the money. This is about an amazing technology and the awesome community that is supporting it.

Edward50, you're a moron if you think the only way to make money is by the Bitcoin gaining in value.  I've made over 40% of my stake in Bitcoins the past 3 days alone, and you had absolutely nothing to do with it.

This guy is 100% plant. He just joined forum on june 09.

This is his 1ST POST:


Its a bullshit post. He's a paid shill. If you read between the lines, you can tell he knows exactly the answers to his questions.

Then his 2nd post his SECOND POST!!!! he starts trashing bitcoin, THE NEXT DAY, after talking about building a mining rig. Every friggin' post, he trashes it up and down. NO EXECPTIONS! He doesn't mention building a mining rig again!!! And pure negative BS from that moment on, before any of the bad bitcoin mishaps started happening (except for the drop from $30).


DISINFO AGENT.

And you know if there's one, there's a hundred.

The word "troll" gets tossed around allot on these forums. You sir, are the real deal.

Aha so you are the one who was going to hack mybitcoin and sell tens of thousands of coin overnight? And you warned us but we didn't listen. You should have been more specific, should have disclosed your plans to delete bitomat's wallet too.

The way I see it is this:  There is not enough real market activity to justify the current price of bitcoins.  I am talking about commerce/trade, not daytrading, derivatives and other nonsense.  Artificial scarcity has been created by hoarders and speculators but is in a downcycle that will continue with selloff.  This volatility will continue in up and down cycles until the value of bitcoins is supported by the demand based on trade of actual goods.  This real value at the moment is low due to the inherent mistrust built into the system.  People are generally too afraid to trade because of the potential fraud.

I'm not predicting the death of bitcoins, only the eventual adjustment down to a reasonable exchange which is prabably around the 1$ level.  But I am just guessing.

2c

Yea someone gets it.

You just don't know what you're talking about do you? It takes most miners $8-9 dollars just to MAKE these coins. And we are going to give them up to you for $1?

Average cost is around $3.50 per coin, maybe more $3.00, but we can throw in extra 20% and agree on $3.50. If anyone disagrees please post your exact math for me.

If todays production cost per coin is $3.50, some of the early miners don't really care, because production cost for their early coins was considerably lower. (Example of the 10,000 coin pizza)

FlipPro you are right and wrong in what you saying. First noone ever said mining will always be profitable. Second if the production cost is $3.50, noone ever said miners will have a 300% markup for a product that right now has a very limited use.

You have to understand that prior April to June price boom, from $1 to $30, this whole community had like couple of 100 miners, who all together had 3 Th of power or about 3000 GPU they minted 4 million coins up to that point. When the $30 boom hit people started unloading left and right and this same process is still well under way.

You don't know what you are talking about, I don't pay for electricity for my mining. In the end, in about a years time most miners will have a very low electric cost or none as me. And the ROI shouldn't be just a couple of months (that is crazy returns get it), it should be more. Giving all the information I have given in other treads, this gives a fair value that is much lower than today. Where that is is exactly is very hard to say, but it is fair assumption that we have at least a couple of dollars on the downside left and my first post with my price target of 5-6 dollars looks as a good first step.

Also another thing, the one dollar target someone here said is possible is very very unlikely, it's to much of a interest in the Bitcoin economy. That would set the whole value of Bitcoins at around 7 million dollars today. That is a very low number.

$7.50 to create one bitcoin worth $9.50 here.  I won't post the maths, as I've posted it here many times before.  People paying 10c/kwh are the only ones capable of producing a bitcoin for $3.50.  Some people can do that, a lot can't.

That's the hole point, miners that can't mine with cheap electricity shouldn't, that's EASY EASY EASY (sorry for that I don't get why you guys don't get it) maths and economics. If someone else can produce something else much cheaper then you, lets say bitcoins (this works with pretty much anything), then you as a producer of bitcoins should say to your self, wait know, why should I produce bitcoins when that guy in Russia is producing it much cheaper AND are willing to sell it to the market. Then you shouldn't be a miner, you should be a SMART direct buyer at the exchanges, you should know what he pays to produce it, and you should then buy it with a small margin, that is the real world. Bitcoins, because it's so new didn't for a while work according to economic laws, but it will, and we are seeing it right now.

Don't forget about competing with someone who doesn't pay for power (they do, indirectly, but ignore the costs) and those mining with stolen power (at work, for example, where the employer pays).

Bitcoins are a commodity.  There's enough out there already that even if all miners gave up tomorrow there would be more than enough bitcoins to keep speculators happy.  It's so self evident that I don't know why more people don't get it.  Miners are no longer required and the cost of mining is irrelevant to bitcoin's price.

ThomasV, you comparing 5000 years of gold history and some well designed code from a few years ago. Gold has been tested 64634 times in its history and somehow people still trust in it. Billions of them. Bitcoins on the other hand are new. 99% of the world never heard of them. If you think this will be the last version of the decentralized e-currency for the next 5000 years then you might have a point, but I'm 99.9999% sure it won't be. There will be better versions of decentralized e-currency in the next 5 to 50 years. While there will still only be one shiny commodity called gold, easy to buy / sell and easy to store for free forever.


Now for a basic simple math of bitcoin production cost...

radeon 6690 is not the best card but lets go with that ... overclocked can get approx 800 M-hash/sec at 350 W. At current difficulty 1.88 mill we get 0.43 coins per day. We need 2.3 days for each coin approx 56 hours. 0.35 kW * 56 hours = 19.6 kW of electricity per coin. Even at 25c per kW it only cost $4.50 per coin.

If your costs are higher, you either paying extra premium electricity or your mining rig is shit. Whichever of the two is  your problem and you probably shouldn't even be mining.

Why do people keep discussing BTC generation cost on a speculation board? That's totally off-topic.

Speculators care little about anything other than the BTC influx, and that's constant. True, we may have lots of miners playing speculators, but trying to forecast their behavior as a major market indicator is really going overboard.

Difficulty will lower when miners quit.  People aren't gonna pay more just because 1000's of miners drive difficulty up. 

Wow, I am honestly surprised that I made that predicition so early during June , it is bascially holds true to this day. How can you put someone down who called the drop so early on, or right when it peaked at $30 and started to back out a little, and even as you said before all the major problems started to happen.

Some of these arguments on price to manufacture bitcoins are ridiculous.

The price will eventually fall to next to nothing. That is the true value right now.

The price of manufacture doens't mean anything. Criminals who can obtain free electricity will exploit an arbitrage opportunity and drive the price of the currency down. I'm sure they're doing it already.

So what value remains in it? Well, bitcoin has no value as a safe haven, we've seen that in recent days as its % losses were greater than the stock market. It also has huge amounts of inherent risk.

There is also no commercial value in it. Hardly any businesses accepting bitcoin and those who do are taking a huge risk and so demand a risk premium (don't tell me that those offering discounts are making a lot of money, they are not).

The value will sink ever more slowly and slowly. If only it was easier to short, I'd go all-in right now.

Off-topic? Not at all.

Supply and demand. Market dynamics are that simple. Who do you think supplies the coins?

Bitcoins were mined before they were worth 3+ dollars and they'll be mined after they fall below it again.  Miners who give up on the system will only cause the algorithm to become easier and will bring the market back to it's natural, low-speculation based price.  If this Bull has proved anything, it's that miners do have an effect on the market, but not enough to artificially inflate prices very high.  Which comforts me a great deal.

That and I'm betting all people who sold their illegal products for 30 USD/BTC rates are getting a lovely cut to their profit margins right now  :D

This does not make any sense. All miners together can not dump at any rate faster than 50 coins per 10 minutes, no matter if there are 100 or 10000 miners.

"There are too many miners" does not make any sense. Supply through mining is constant, no matter how many miners there are.

The drop that now happened was easily predictable from the obvious chart pattern that formed after the bubble, the target area around here (the minimum size of the inevitable second leg) was to be expected at or below $8. You will soon be able to observe the same kind of drop (only slower) from the same kind of post-bubble pattern in Silver when it will fall to $26/Oz and all the amateur traders will cry "manipulation!" like they do every time when they have manipulated themselves into buying an obvious bubble, totally unable to zoom out and view the complete picture.

A few key words are missing from the "too many miners" theory.  3/4 of mining capacity is new, as in less than 2 months new.  While mine & hoard releasing less than 20% to the market was the winning strategy previously that is not a winning strategy for the "new" miners.  So in effect, too many of the "wrong" kind of miners are having an effect on bitcoin.

I'm not the only one estimating the BTC mined vs sold went up from a historical 20% to 50% or even higher.  That money is leaving the trading pool and winding up as fresh hardware, booze, hookers, credit card payments to finance previous hardware purchase, whatever.  And as prices (in $) fall, the less attractive a buy & hold strategy appears.  The new winning strategy becomes dump and buy more at a lower price.

While not a primary driver I don't think you can deny mining can have a negative impact on price.

I think the price needs to drop until mining is a waste of money.  Only then will miners save their coins instead of sell them.  People need to mine either as a hobby or as a multi-year investment.

Right now people are building expensive custom chips just to mine coins.  All you people who mine, if the price climbs up, will you mine more?  No, you will mine far far less because it will be the rich folks with their super expensive mining rigs getting all the coins.  The only way you will mine more coins is when the price drops to worthless and you save them for a year before you sell them -- that's how you make money... you see people have to think it's not worth it to mine.  Right now people think mining pays off so it's not worthwhile to mine.

I'm a disinfo agent.

And a freemason.

And a lizard-person.

The tard is you. If you're right, you're wasting your time. If you're wrong, you're wasting your time.

Since this is obvious - the only reason to post your nonsense is to troll.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Or door number three:

This forum is a hobby, just like Bitcoin is a hobby.

If you're insulting our hobby as Bitcoin Forum iconoclasts, then don't we have the right to mock your hobby of being a Bitcoin supporting forum poster?

Yeah buddy, fuck you too. Fuck you real good.

yes coin generation is constant so not too many miners but not enough to do with coins.  We need more merchants and services which will make BTC desirable to have, thus more buyers, thus more demand.

The original notion of bitcoin is its backed by nothing and is only worth what people will TRADE for it.  There is not enough TRADE at this time and way WAY to MANY people obsessed with a bitcoins worth in dollars..... simples!