|
Title: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: accord01 on November 26, 2013, 08:33:34 AM what exactly is bitcoins rsi? i have no clue how to calculate it. it seems like some of the people who actually know what they are doing... their consensus is that we are seriously overbought right now and a storm is coming.
Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: Miz4r on November 26, 2013, 08:38:51 AM MtGox and btcchina are actually oversold on the 1d chart, and that usually is a signal that a rally is brewing. A storm is coming alright, but not the one you expect. :P
Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: arepo on November 26, 2013, 08:53:08 AM RSI (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzvzl) and other oscillators work best when the market cap is stable. since this is entirely not the case, the best estimate would be the RSI data transformed by a factor related to the rate of change of the market cap. this type of indicator, however, needs calibration.
that being said, the raw RSI data is hard to interpret because there has been a massive influx of money going on since we launched from <$20 last year. while capital naturally enters and exits a market with the movement of the price, the exponential gains in the price of bitcoin are due to the fact that the influx is large in proportion to the market cap. this will invariably cause the RSI to be biased in the direction of the market, hence the "overbought" interpretation. it is difficult to tell how overbought we are exactly, right now. --arepo Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: niothor on November 26, 2013, 11:07:31 AM Well , until now bitcoin doesn't give a damn about technical indicators.
So until we really hit mass adoption and price swings based on every damn news stop , indicators will be off most of the times. Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: chrsjrcj on November 26, 2013, 11:10:00 AM Forget Bitcoin being overbought, you should check out the crazy cryptocurrency boom. Novacoin, seriously? :D
Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: theecoinomist on November 26, 2013, 03:51:46 PM Forget Bitcoin being overbought, you should check out the crazy cryptocurrency boom. Novacoin, seriously? :D My 100 namecoins I bought for 0,4 USD weeks ago is certainly worth a lot more now :) Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: Sindelar1938 on November 26, 2013, 04:04:58 PM It is not overbought at all
We will look back and it will seem cheap Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: Rival on November 26, 2013, 04:20:57 PM It is not overbought at all We will look back and it will seem cheap Due to their very nature, they are always cheap. Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: troy112 on November 26, 2013, 04:25:53 PM Because of less data or less figures, its very difficult to say that. Because right now it is only moving on emotions...
Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: antoineph on November 26, 2013, 04:32:57 PM and only moving on mtgox
Title: Re: how overbought is bitcoin? Post by: gripflierGO on November 26, 2013, 04:40:39 PM it seems like some of the people who actually know what they are doing... their consensus is that we are seriously overbought right now and a storm is coming. :) It is just wishfull thinking, otherwise you wouldnt know about the storm beffore it actually happened. |