Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: OleOle on November 28, 2013, 09:24:23 PM



Title: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: OleOle on November 28, 2013, 09:24:23 PM
Worth a read:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21590901-it-looks-overvalued-even-if-digital-currency-crashes-others-will-follow-bitcoin?fsrc=nlw

Enjoy.

:)



Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: eternaluniverse on November 28, 2013, 09:33:38 PM
as more people get into crypto currency the market cap will rise and so will price, same thing will happen to litecoin if bitcoin does fall off but I don't see that happening. I see that all alt coins will go up and value and I see them coming and going floating in orbit around bitcoin.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Don007 on November 28, 2013, 09:38:07 PM
Because the price of the Bitcoin is so high at this moment, people who want to be part of this tend to buy cheaper Altcoins in stead I think.

I think that caused the huge rise of the LTC, but I think it's stabelizing a bit now.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Kreigyr on November 28, 2013, 09:40:13 PM
Because the price of the Bitcoin is so high at this moment, people who want to be part of this tend to buy cheaper Altcoins in stead I think.

I think that caused the huge rise of the LTC, but I think it's stabelizing a bit now.

I'm convinced most of the rise of altcoins is coming from the somehow more accessible dopamine high.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Don007 on November 28, 2013, 09:44:22 PM
Well, I think it's because it's a hype now. And the Bitcoin itself is too expensive to start in for most of the people, that's why they try altcoins.

And I don't blame them; there's also a golden future for most of them!


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Kreigyr on November 28, 2013, 09:48:18 PM
Well, I think it's because it's a hype now. And the Bitcoin itself is too expensive to start in for most of the people, that's why they try altcoins.

And I don't blame them; there's also a golden future for most of them!

Oh, yes; I also see some future in altcoins, just certainly not the same as Bitcoin's, necessarily. You bring up one of the hardest conceptions to disspell: For pretty obvious reasons, people just getting in seem convinced Bitcoins are indivisible, and I'm regularly told that it's "too high" and they "can't put in that much".


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: crazy_rabbit on November 28, 2013, 09:50:54 PM
Of course this is a bubble, but what part of the bubble are we in? The top? Where bitcoin will never be worth more then $1000? Does that really sound so reasonable considering the developments happening in Bitcoin? Or are we at the bottom of a much bigger bubble?

You can get out whenever you want- I would rather ride the pop at $10,000 then $1,000.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: OleOle on November 28, 2013, 10:00:19 PM
It's very interesting, that's for sure. As a trader, I'm looking for the price to weaken, for people who bought in high to get crueled and dump the unit as that's how it seems to go in most bubble-type situations. I'm trying to figure out where the main support might be if we see a sharp sell-off.

Curious how The Economist article seemed quite pessimistic on price through most of the article then softened their stance at the end saying, "it might be time to sell." Maybe they didn't want to appear too one-sided in their views and were holding back on screaming from the rooftops, "Sell! Sell!! SELL!!!" :D



Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: eternaluniverse on November 28, 2013, 10:04:16 PM
It's very interesting, that's for sure. As a trader, I'm looking for the price to weaken, for people who bought in high to get crueled and dump the unit as that's how it seems to go in most bubble-type situations. I'm trying to figure out where the main support might be if we see a sharp sell-off.

Curious how The Economist article seemed quite pessimistic on price through most of the article then softened their stance at the end saying, "it might be time to sell." Maybe they didn't want to appear too one-sided in their views and were holding back on screaming from the rooftops, "Sell! Sell!! SELL!!!" :D



Or maybe they are just covering their bases and will say later: "oh we said it might be time to sell" even though most of the article seems like it is telling people to sell their btc.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Odrec on November 28, 2013, 10:04:55 PM
Does this mean that we should start panicking now?


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Don007 on November 28, 2013, 10:06:28 PM
Hehehe. It's true, $1000 is a lot of money for most of us. But most of the Bitcoin holders saw what the price did earlier, and expect even more. Humans are greedy, and is going to cause a lot of trouble when the bubble pops and people loose much money.  

The only thing they could think about then is 'Why was I so dumb not to sell it at $1000'..         I'm a bit in between with my view, sell some (part of) Bitcoins and do something fun with that, but keep a larger part for the future.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: eternaluniverse on November 28, 2013, 10:07:48 PM
If anything, the panic will make a lot of people whom have the balls to stay in a lot of money. I'm waiting for the next big price drop to buy some more coins. You should't invest in bitcoins with money you have a problem losing obviously though.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: oda.krell on November 28, 2013, 10:10:31 PM
Kind of disappointing, coming from the Economist. It's a good paper, in my opinion, on most topics, but that's a pretty pedestrian analysis of Bitcoin.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: 4mherewego on November 28, 2013, 10:13:45 PM
Kind of disappointing, coming from the Economist. It's a good paper, in my opinion, on most topics, but that's a pretty pedestrian analysis of Bitcoin.

For me TE is just Keynesian spam and tldr version of Time magazine without the nice pictures. Imo they should start with an edition for adults. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TT81o4hL4c


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: pera on November 28, 2013, 10:19:56 PM
Quote
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, told a Senate committee on virtual currencies that the idea “may hold long-term promise”.
I keep reading this misleading quote again and again, it's getting me mad! xD
Bernanke didn't say that he thinks that Bitcoin nor other virtual currencies “may hold long-term promise”, he was quoting someone who said that and many other things back in 1995.

Fucking stupid press, why don't they read the original source instead of coping headlines from other newspapers :P

Also I'm pretty sure he knows about the assassination market very well... I really doubt he had any kind of appreciation on Bitcoin.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: pera on November 28, 2013, 10:23:40 PM
Kind of disappointing, coming from the Economist. It's a good paper, in my opinion, on most topics, but that's a pretty pedestrian analysis of Bitcoin.
The Economist always publish crappy articles about Bitcoin.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Don007 on November 28, 2013, 10:23:44 PM
<. . . > You should't invest in bitcoins with money you have a problem losing obviously though.

That's really smart, but not all humans are that smart. Regarding history, there were a lot of people even taking loans to invest in some high risk investments.. And many of them failed.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: zubelutte on November 28, 2013, 10:33:11 PM
The only thing they could think about then is 'Why was I so dumb not to sell it at $1000'..         I'm a bit in between with my view, sell some (part of) Bitcoins and do something fun with that, but keep a larger part for the future.


No big deal of not selling at $1000+ even if the price crashes...you will have oportunity to sell at $1000+ next time during next year...


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Don007 on November 28, 2013, 10:37:13 PM
I share your vision, but it's still unsure. No one can predict the future ;).

I think the price of the Bitcoin keeps rising the following years, $2000 soon isn't too far away in my opinon.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: OleOle on November 28, 2013, 10:44:48 PM
I share your vision, but it's still unsure. No one can predict the future ;).

I think the price of the Bitcoin keeps rising the following years, $2000 soon isn't too far away in my opinon.

Yes, no-one can predict the future, that is for sure.

I'm waiting to hear that whistling sound as the price drops like a stone :D

I'll be happy to buy in lower and hear the sob stories of people who bought in above $1000 and who sold out on the way down... only to hear them moan again as the price appreciates past $1000 again. It's a tough life for some folks ;)

-----

Key point: wait for the whistling sound :D



Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Hawker on November 28, 2013, 10:48:39 PM
I share your vision, but it's still unsure. No one can predict the future ;).

I think the price of the Bitcoin keeps rising the following years, $2000 soon isn't too far away in my opinon.

Yes, no-one can predict the future, that is for sure.

I'm waiting to hear that whistling sound as the price drops like a stone :D

I'll be happy to buy in lower and hear the sob stories of people who bought in above $1000 and who sold out on the way down... only to hear them moan again as the price appreciates past $1000 again. It's a tough life for some folks ;)

-----

Key point: wait for the whistling sound :D



I sold 900 at $970.  A month ago the price was $200.  I can't wait to buy back and make a killing.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: OleOle on November 28, 2013, 11:02:34 PM

I sold 900 at $970.  A month ago the price was $200.  I can't wait to buy back and make a killing.


Yeah, traders are making a killing, reminds me of the tech bubble days... good times.

Long may the gods and goddesses of volatility shine on bitcoin! :D


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Cryddit on November 28, 2013, 11:14:59 PM
To the trader who wants to get in. 

Free advice is worth every penny.  But here's what I think.

Put a buy order somewhere around $900.  That's still in the volatility band, I think.

In a couple weeks it may dip that low or lower momentarily and then continue gaining. It may go to $1500 before it does though. 

Then again, it might dip that low and keep falling.  If that happens put in more buys at $800, $600, and $500, if you can get them in before the price goes down that far. 

And finally, it might never get down to $900 again, but I kinda doubt it.  If that happens, your buy order does nothing harmful to you except you lose the opportunity if it dips to $925 and goes right back up.

I'm thinking in the long run it will continue to go up.  But it'll lose 50% of its value and gain it back a few more times along the way. In the past it's lost 80% or more once or twice, 50% a half-dozen times. 

You don't have to be crazy to trade Bitcoin, but it helps. It also helps if you make faint clanging noises when you walk. The line between the two is hazy at times though. 


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: oda.krell on November 28, 2013, 11:30:13 PM
Quote
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, told a Senate committee on virtual currencies that the idea “may hold long-term promise”.
I keep reading this misleading quote again and again, it's getting me mad! xD
Bernanke didn't say that he thinks that Bitcoin nor other virtual currencies “may hold long-term promise”, he was quoting someone who said that and many other things back in 1995.

Fucking stupid press, why don't they read the original source instead of coping headlines from other newspapers :P

Also I'm pretty sure he knows about the assassination market very well... I really doubt he had any kind of appreciation on Bitcoin.

You're such a clown. Go buy back at a loss already. I have nothing against bears, but you're so obviously driven by an agenda (probably because you'd prefer *not* to buy back at a loss, but at the price at which you foolishly sold), it's not even funny anymore...

Here's the paragraph from the letter in question:

Quote
For example, in 1995, the U.S. House of Representatives held hearings on “the future of money” at which early versions of virtual currencies and other innovations were discussed. Vice Chairman Alan Blinder’s testimony at that time made the key point that while these types of innovations may pose risks related to law enforcement and supervisory matters, there are also areas in which they may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system.

You get that this is Bernanke's letter reply to the question: "Yo Berni baby, what do you think of this Bitcoin thing?" So anything he writes in there, whether it's a quote or not, is probably carefully chosen, not just some random collection of words. So this line, about innovations and long-term promise, is one of the few statements that are not completely noncommittal (like the part about how the Fed can't regulate shit because btc isn't issued by a bank). He's quoting somebody else, sure, but the key word here is 'key point'. This is, in the clandestine way of phrasing shit that politicians, diplomats and CEOs like to employ, *exactly* what the press has called it: a cautious endorsement by Bernanke (emphasis on cautious), followed by a big honking "and it's not my business anyway".


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: zachcope on November 28, 2013, 11:45:46 PM
Legacy financial system, legacy financial journalists meh.
Don't expect much different.



Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: pera on November 29, 2013, 01:06:53 AM
callate juan ;) o alex? :D


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Dafar on November 29, 2013, 01:17:34 AM
Kind of disappointing, coming from the Economist. It's a good paper, in my opinion, on most topics, but that's a pretty pedestrian analysis of Bitcoin.

Came here to post this.




Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: SheHadMANHands on November 29, 2013, 03:03:52 AM
Quote
It may be time to sell.

Thank you for this genius, hedged insight The Economist.  


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: Logik on November 29, 2013, 04:48:08 AM
I might sound like a grumpy old man but I can't stand listening or watching the media at the moment - articles about Bitcoin just make me roll my eyes or cringe excessively.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: aminorex on November 29, 2013, 04:55:43 AM
The quality of the reasoning in the Economist has been on a severe downtrend over the past 6 months or so, and this is no exception, perhaps a local nadir.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: aideed on November 29, 2013, 06:59:14 AM
Kind of disappointing, coming from the Economist. It's a good paper, in my opinion, on most topics, but that's a pretty pedestrian analysis of Bitcoin.

For me TE is just Keynesian spam and tldr version of Time magazine without the nice pictures. Imo they should start with an edition for adults. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TT81o4hL4c

its not just you, everything they write is tilted that way.


Title: Re: [The Economist] The Bitcoin Bubble
Post by: sickpig on November 29, 2013, 08:24:21 AM
I might sound like a grumpy old man but I can't stand listening or watching the media at the moment - articles about Bitcoin just make me roll my eyes or cringe excessively.

I am a grumpy old man, and I could never stand listening to or watching the media. Articles about anything make me roll my eyes and cringe excessively, most times accompanied by vomit.

I'm grumpy and old myself ...

@Holliday is my memory playing tricks on me or is your post/activity value fluctuating more than btc those days?