Bitcoin Forum

Nope.  No one did.  TA is a sham.

There were some people who called it without any solid reasoning other than a feeling, but no one was able to make the prediction based on technical analysis.  Why do we listen to these con-artists?

TA is not intended to predict unique, low probability events. It's intended to predict what's likely to happen based on predictable interactions. Whether that makes TA valuable or worthless is another question.

Sounds pointless to me.

TA?

Also, I read many good threads that speculated that the price would float up when it hit it's natural floor.  Speculation was general towards a dollar but ranged in most cases to six dollars.  Nobody could estimate how many investors involved with the speculation bubble were serious about adopting bitcoin, or how many would lose faith in the BTC.

I've been saying to expect a "long, slow slide" since the bubble popped.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=750&r=60

It looks like we're returning to the slide trend.  There was a two week period of stability in mid-July followed by a big drop, adding up to the expected long, slow slide. All upward moves were brief, no more than a day or two.  Figure on a decline of about 30% a month.

I did via non-technical analysis https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34978.0

And we're back up to nearly 8 again

Here's more of my non-technical analysis: plateau at 4-5$ USD by the middle to end of next week.

That chart has held up decent considering the nonstop weekly news imo

yeah mine did, I sold when it was around 14 and never looked back

we outlined in our subscriber newsletters that "a break below the meak or break trendline (running between 12.3-12.5 ee expect a drop to 5 - 5.8.

5.74 was the low then.

senseless, if you tell us afterwards...
tell before or shut up please
thx

He told the subscribers before.

cloon spend 5BTC for the subscription and know beforehand. i.e. subscribe or shut up please :)

So your wealthy subscribers accelerated the panic by reading into your prophecy? (Not complaining, the more panicers wiped out the better.)

No, if they followed his recommendations, they sold at 12, bought at 5 and more than doubled their money. 

It's not that TA is a sham, but that there are too many unpredictable variables:

1) Someone steals 75,000 btc from mybitcoin and takes the market for a ride. (replace with mtgox getting hacked, allinvain getting robbed, etc)

2) An early adopter just got his driver's licence and really, REALLY, wants to go and buy that Porsche.

3) Satoshi doesn't like the way in which Wall Street speculators are flooding into the btc market and decides to use one tenth of his holdings to send it into a downward spiral.

Add dark pools, back-deals and a few other goodies and you'll soon realise any kind of predictive analysis will go out the window... except for a monkey with a ouija board :-)

Cloon, that was public information on 3 August. I donated 5% of my gains to S3052. Chodpaba also predicted the drop, although only after the price was dropping from $10 on the 6th.

For the last time (hopefully):

If someone can predict the expectation value of price, he will NOT tell others about it, but get insanely rich instead by trading himself. Technical analysis is for risk management, it is NOT a magical tool for infinite money! There is usually no simple, well-known way to get rich, duh!

This should be common sense really.

I know the thing about the Subscribers, but there's no sense telling after, that his prediction was true... i know he's one of the best on this forum, i respect his theories!

i only dont like "i told you so"   :D

i can also tell: "I bought at 6.2, exactly how my personal analysis resolved and it was right!" and you'll not care ;)

thx for you understanding

do you read these forums or just post? Scroll up, there have been numerous people who predicted for FREE days in advance. Sure others predicted badly. Ultimately, you play at your own risk!

(Not directed at you)

Why? Read the book Animal Spirits

Sham? Yes, read the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street

People who believe in TA have failed all statistics classes they've ever been in, if they've taken any.

If enough people believe a particular pattern produces a predictable pattern, then they will collectively make it happen. If due to publicly visible tea leaves I believe the price will drop, then I will sell as will many others who are also watching the same tea leaves. Whether or not the tea leaves have any correlation to the asset is irrelevant if the tea leaves influence behavior and behavior IS the market. You may choose to bet against the herd, but you would be ill advised to ignore the herd nor ignore what the herd is watching.

Poker is also a game of chance. But statistics and psychology help not a little.

I agree. A quick course in Psychology beats everything ever written on TA.

(That's why I suggested Animal Spirits, which is all about psychology and herd mentality in economics)

A Random Walk .. is the book that conclusively proves TA has no predictive power.

The above is quite correct, with two caveats:

1) Collective behaviour will take you so far, but past that point there are forces that are much stronger.

2) There are still hidden variables in this game. In poker, you at least know how many cards in a deck... things like the mybitcoin fiasco (and bitomat, and mtgox a few weeks back, and so on) are the equivalent of adding two extra aces to the deck... or removing two, depending on which side you're on.

In the case of bitcoin, the hacks have set the whole experiment back quite a bit. But it will still move in the direction it would have moved without them. And perhaps, like a relationship that was destined to fail, it's better that these events happened now, early on in bitcoin's history, as opposed to three or four years from now.

I can almost bet that much more serious events will happen in the 3-4 years timeframe. The higher the stakes in the BTC project, the more sophisticated attacks will become. Right now, the problems we had were mostly caused by stupidity, and no serious attempts to disrupt the network have been done. We have seen nothing yet.

Before last drop here was calculated long-term stable price of BTC (http://chasinggoogle.blogspot.com/2011/08/bitcoin-mining-calculate-difficulty.html).

Is this fact or opinion?

We'll see.  I hope you're right since it'd be nice to pick some more up.