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Title: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: sgk on December 04, 2013, 06:33:30 AM Take any leading ASIC miners hardware manufacturer an you'll notice at least 4-6 months of waiting period on their state-of-the-art hardware pre-orders. They say the devices in question are under development and there is no guarantee they'll be available within certain period of time.
This got me into thinking: how would you know if they haven't completed the development of the hardware and have started mining Bitcoins themselves? If you think of the profits, it all makes sense. For the sake of an example, let's consider the 600 GH/s card from Butterfly Labs (http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/). They're accepting pre-orders for $4680. Now assume the card has already been developed and they've started mining Bitcoin themselves. With current difficulty, they'll mine at least 12 Bitcoins per month - which at the current rate, is equal to $12600. So why would they dispatch it to you for $4680 right now? What makes sense for them is: 1 --> Take pre-orders for a 600 GH/s card and take your money 2 --> Develop the card and start mining for themselves 3 --> Tell people the hardware is still under development 4 --> Mine as many Bitcoins as possible with state-of-the-are hardware, until there is a significant difficulty rise 5 --> When the difficulty reaches at the point when mining with 600 GH/s takes several months to break-even, start dispatching the device to customers 6 --> Start pre-orders on 1200 GH/s hardware! Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: sushi on December 04, 2013, 06:47:58 AM Not all companies are like that! It usually takes at least a few months to have the chips in their hands. If they are behind the schedule for over 6 months, your speclation could be possible
The king of ASIC, KnC shipped sooooo many of them and now you can see the hashing power on the network shooting up to the moon :o Take any leading ASIC miners hardware manufacturer an you'll notice at least 4-6 months of waiting period on their state-of-the-art hardware pre-orders. They say the devices in question are under development and there is no guarantee they'll be available within certain period of time. This got me into thinking: how would you know if they haven't completed the development of the hardware and have started mining Bitcoins themselves? If you think of the profits, it all makes sense. For the sake of an example, let's consider the 600 GH/s card from Butterfly Labs (http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/). They're accepting pre-orders for $4680. Now assume the card has already been developed and they've started mining Bitcoin themselves. With current difficulty, they'll mine at least 12 Bitcoins per month - which at the current rate, is equal to $12600. So why would they dispatch it to you for $4680 right now? What makes sense for them is: 1 --> Take pre-orders for a 600 GH/s card and take your money 2 --> Develop the card and start mining for themselves 3 --> Tell people the hardware is still under development 4 --> Mine as many Bitcoins as possible with state-of-the-are hardware, until there is a significant difficulty rise 5 --> When the difficulty reaches at the point when mining with 600 GH/s takes several months to break-even, start dispatching the device to customers 6 --> Start pre-orders on 1200 GH/s hardware! Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: medUSA on December 04, 2013, 06:51:08 AM Put yourself in their shoes...
You've managed to design, manufacture and beta test a new product. Now, you need to mass produce this new product. What do you need? Capital! So in my view, when manufactures offer pre-orders, it's just cheaper and lower risk than borrow from bank or using cash out of their own pockets. And, it lowers the demand for competitors' products. Mind you, mining with sold units will come later when they "quality check" their freshly manufactured units. Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: Biffa on December 04, 2013, 09:08:00 AM This conspiracy theory is so last week/month/year ::)
Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: philipma1957 on December 04, 2013, 12:31:52 PM This conspiracy theory is so last week/month/year ::) this Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: CMMPro on December 04, 2013, 02:14:56 PM This conspiracy theory is so last week/month/year ::) You're right...this is exactly what Avalon did, lol. Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: CoinGeneral on December 04, 2013, 03:56:57 PM This conspiracy theory is so last week/month/year ::) You're right...this is exactly what Avalon did, lol. You guys do understand that the company AsicMiner which sold its asic usb block erupters for .95 BTC each back in the day now has the world's largest mining farm right? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=346134.0 They profitted so much from all their asic block erupter sales that they were able to produce so much more... Also this guy sums up the conspiracy theory very well: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=346037.msg3712424#msg3712424 Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: cdog on December 04, 2013, 10:16:54 PM This got me into thinking: how would you know if they haven't completed the development of the hardware and have started mining Bitcoins themselves? If you think of the profits, it all makes sense. Welcome to BTC Talk circa April 2013 Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: zimmah on December 04, 2013, 10:52:48 PM This conspiracy theory is so last week/month/year ::) You're right...this is exactly what Avalon did, lol. BFL... Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: bitlite on January 29, 2014, 11:58:19 AM Take any leading ASIC miners hardware manufacturer an you'll notice at least 4-6 months of waiting period on their state-of-the-art hardware pre-orders. They say the devices in question are under development and there is no guarantee they'll be available within certain period of time. This got me into thinking: how would you know if they haven't completed the development of the hardware and have started mining Bitcoins themselves? If you think of the profits, it all makes sense. For the sake of an example, let's consider the 600 GH/s card from Butterfly Labs (http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/). They're accepting pre-orders for $4680. Now assume the card has already been developed and they've started mining Bitcoin themselves. With current difficulty, they'll mine at least 12 Bitcoins per month - which at the current rate, is equal to $12600. So why would they dispatch it to you for $4680 right now? What makes sense for them is: 1 --> Take pre-orders for a 600 GH/s card and take your money 2 --> Develop the card and start mining for themselves 3 --> Tell people the hardware is still under development 4 --> Mine as many Bitcoins as possible with state-of-the-are hardware, until there is a significant difficulty rise 5 --> When the difficulty reaches at the point when mining with 600 GH/s takes several months to break-even, start dispatching the device to customers 6 --> Start pre-orders on 1200 GH/s hardware! Paying someone big bucks for something that hasn't even been built yet, and then! they expect you to wait 6 Months before send it to you really?... A lot of stupid people also fell for the Nigerian SCAMs. Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: Gator-hex on January 29, 2014, 07:51:44 PM but.. but.. they'd have to make room for the new 28nm stuff by selling their old 65nm stuff first... oh...
https://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage/250-gh-s-rack-mount-bitcoin-miner.html we make the market, you cannot blame anyone but yourself, if you buy pre-orders! One dollar, one vote! You bought it, you voted for it! Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: S4VV4S on January 30, 2014, 11:59:22 AM What I think about the 2TH pre-orders is that the buyers should rest assure that their machines will be delivered at some point and they will be in perfect working condition....
Here a small hint: http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1Nbq2XZaRsKknf5fcT2wTXvBS31PaUWSeX EDIT: I have been monitoring this address for a couple of weeks now. Two weeks from now it was only 252TH, about 2 days ago went over 520TH and now has dropped to around 490TH. Did anyone get their 2TH machine? maybe they started shipping ;) Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: alubadu on March 04, 2014, 04:09:38 AM I have been reading about this new machines that I guess there should be somewhere ready now?
Anyway... what will happen to CPU users that mine when all of this power comes out in the next 2-4 months??? I have read that the difficulty will go up 10 times or so... which will make those machines almost "normal" CPU (like the ones today).... so there will not be much new bleeding edge. in the reffered address. Quote Estimated Earnings Your approximate maximum potential earnings at the current network difficulty of 3,815,723,798.81 and maintaining your 3-hour average hash rate of 898.78 Th/s is 118.45998459 BTC per day. Title: Re: What I Think Is Going On With Miner Pre-Orders Post by: Wanesst on March 04, 2014, 08:21:28 AM If the difficulty go up 10 times in near future it will make those machines not so cool
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