Bitcoin Forum

How good are we as a collective at guessing the price.

$20±1.23

Can we go a week without major drama?

Considering, 16th is my birthday, i'd say make it go higher. Would be the perfect present.

A guess is a guess, I guess :)

But my prediction on a tangent of the actual question is that you'll get high guesses from those holding "expensive" coins and low guesses from people trying to get "cheap" coins... and then there are those that, like me, can only wish as I have no clue of what the market will do, it being so small and easy to manipulate by a small few.

That, and I feel that your two bounds $2 and $15 are insufficient... you should add a "below" and "above" open ended option set.

That really would be a new beginning for bitcoin I think. One of these days, these "hackers" are going to sit there and think "Damn, everything's already been done!" and hopefully leave the scene.

I know, wishful thinking.

PS. $5 seems to be the cost that most miners will still make a somewhat noticeable profit, so that's my guess.

On 16th August I predict $3.9/BTC, this will be on the way back up from the $2.8/BTC low which is happening within the next 9 days.

Somewhere between 9 and 10.
Actually, if you take the job of browse my older posts, when that thing with MtGox came out I said BTC would go down up to 7, where it should be at the "rollback" time without the bubble, now it just went down to its right price and will trend up slowly. Unless Gawker folks figure a way to buy "I don't know what" on Silk Road and another bubble comes out.

$15±14.00

Now that may be the future ???

Can't see anyway to change my vote and I want to vote $13 just because no one else has.

$1600.15

I was rather hoping to see a "normal distribution" (gaussian curve) of votes. This dosn't work well as a means of estimation, unless the answer is going to be $10.

There's, one towards the pessimist scenario, another towards the optimistic scenario.

I doubt the hackers will ever say that, but they JUST might realize that bitcoin is THEIR currency, and their hacking attempts are the equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot.

My guess is you're right: the poll results look bimodal, with median peaks at $5 and $10, and these peaks represent those holding cash on the exchanges & those holding bitcoins, respectively.  Since there are more guesses of 10, I think there are more speculation forum members that are holding bitcoins.

Also interesting for just how wide the spread is.  What it says to me is that no one has a clue what bitcoins are worth, and this poll is for just a week from now!

There's only one thing we can conclude with confidence: at least 80% of all guessers are wrong, with the top vote getter at 17.5% right now (assuming the price is just a single value, of course).

Yup.

Why can't I go back in time?  :o

this thread is very long time 5 year later
in 2011 bitcoin price only 2 dollar this now bitcoin price is amazing

BTCUSD 16th August 2011:
High: 11.35
Low: 10.80

Damn, my prediction (9~10) failed that time.  ;D

You were far closer than me

That's all makes me regret I didn't join to bitcoin that time. Apparently I would be a millionaire today. :'(

Past is past ,better to move on. Even some members wants to go back in time where bitcoin price is  only 100$.. even i would definitely buy a lot of.btc and  bring with me into this day.  If i have only a time machine.

I would just go there to slap myself to not sell anything at that price.  ;D

I predicted that the prices in August later in the over $2.000. take a look at it now, the price looks very fantastic and has gone up to $100 in 6 days.

Hello there Mr. Gravedigger. You certainly can't go back in time but the current price of bitcoin i.e., $1000 might become equivalent to $10 of 2011 in few decades, so you better gather some bitcoin now, so you don't post this same thing 10-15 years later.