Bitcoin Forum

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1129898/btcusd-h4-distel-enterprise

I was playing around with some charts trying to find the rate of growth for this current boom cycle. What I saw was that price has been doubling every 13 days or so since mid/late october. we started at around $125, reached the $250 level on Nov 7, $500 around Nov 20, then $1000 yesterday Dec 3. I'm not saying these dates are the exact time price hit those levels, just that if one were to draw the exponential curve on the chart the line would be at the price levels specified around the time specified. On the chart in the link, i marked these areas and its interesting to note that the last two fall around major areas of price correction. If the current rate of growth continues it would seem that price will reach $2000 around Dec 16.

Now my question/ concern is will this growth continue. Is new money coming in fast enough to get price that high in less than 2 weeks? I would expect a major correction near the $2000 level, which would likely be the major crash some of us are expecting(one similar to April) once this happens i would expect price to fall to around $500 and oscillate around the $1000 level where price would level out for a while before the next boom cycle(if it happens)

Furthermore, do you think this current growth rate could continue until January, allowing us to reach $4000? According to my chart, this would happen around Dec 29.

I have a hunch that we will see a crash like in April which left us at an order of magnitude higher than where it started( starting roughly at $10 reaching 250 or so and crashing to $50 then leveling out around $100.) If this current trend follows the same pattern, we might see prices as high as $2500 before correcting to the $1000 level which is an order of magnitude higher than where we started in october.

Since we didn't see an April like correction at the $1000 level, I think there is enough interest in the market to support $1000 bitcoins, but my gut tells me $2000+ is to high when one considers more long term rates of growth.

Right now i think i might set a sell order around $1900(Although that seems a little greedy) and try to buy back in at $750. Price might go lower but i think that would be a fair price when one considers long term growth.

I feel like there's more to say but I'm curious what others think.

In the previous bubbles, daily growth in the final two days reached 20%. So either market will reach the top sooner or bubble will be even bigger (3-4k/BTC?) and pop around holidays.

EDIT: Yes, you are completely right. 2000 this month is wayyy higher, than is reasonable. Even considering exponential growth curve.

With the current backlogs of 1 month to get verified at most exchanges I would say it is anybody guess.
All that incoming money is going to be used to obtain a position....newbies tend to market buy as soon as they are able.

That's not true, only if you assume all newly mined coins are also liquidated each day.

Its interesting to note that during the April bubble we saw around 2500% increase in price(if one assumes that the bubble started around $10) before having a major correction. i think its definitely possible for us to see $2500, and $2000 wouldn't really surprise me. however these levels terrify me because i just don't think they're realistic for the time they would be reached.

If price doesn't have a major correction this month or next, I wont know what to think.

Most miners are in it for the radically new capabilities this technology offers, not so they can cash out for fiat when the price is high enough.

Are you aware, that especially around Christmas the amount needed may be much, MUCH higher. Some miners have social lives too. Others may have been waiting for ROI on their new mining rigs.

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.

Most miners are not dumb, they will sell at January instead because they will have to pay tax one year later...

I'm not so sure that we wont see a -75% crash, in fact im pretty sure we will. however i think that when this happens price will reach equilibrium around 1k, not bad by any means

I'm a miner myself, and I'm not selling my coins and I also don't consider myself a speculator. Many miners like myself have paid a big number of bitcoins for their miners and they want to mine those coins back and hold most of them for the long term.

LOL @ 75% never again. wait to see how high/fast this rally goes before thinking that. LOL at > 33%. L oh fucking L

so far youve been right? youve been here 1 month and started posting in the middle of current rally

LOL

"So far" since when? Since april? We have seen 50% swing as late as three weeks ago and that was merely a correction.

However I completely agree, that people, especially new ones will buy more coins, than is mined right now. Otherwise end game and bubble pop wouldn´t be possible so soon ;)

as far as i know, the april crash was coupled with mt gox having serious problems with deposit and withdrawals, which fueled the crash even more. So altough the market will likely have a normal correction after a boom, it will probably not react as heavily as in april. On the other hand the new guys may not know yet that mt gox has huge waiting times for deposits and withdrawals and verification (really they should use kraken), and they may become worried even if it's normal for mt gox to be so slow. So it may result in a similar panic like in april.

either way, I hope i'll respond in time and in the right way to double or triple up my bitcoins.

I've been here since April.  Lurking.

My post is there.  Quote it.  I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if I am.

It wouldn't be bitcointalk without the "I've been here since..." dick measuring contests.
Carry on  :D

unsheathe your sword and we shall battle to the death. my sword is certified from november of this year.

Not to mention lot's of miners (like me) are not selling anything they mine.

Expand your graph to estimate the price 3 months from now and i think that you 'll get your answer  :P

i think its safe to assume it wont. but I wonder what price will be once this rate exhausts itself. once buyers run out of steam, sellers will take over driving price down in the same exponential fashion. i've been reading about damped oscillatory patterns because i see them everywhere on bitcoin charts. I'm not exactly sure of all the factors that drive these patterns but its interesting to think about none the less.

Agree, Price is following the hashrate! harder it is to mine the longer miners need to hold onto there coins to sell for a profit. Those who control the supply, Control the price! Who do you think owns all the diamond mines. They burn diamonds to to keep the price up!

Also you may want to run your numbers again, this time taking in account the recent news from china  :P
I think talking about 2000$ suddenly looks way more distant...