Bitcoin Forum

Seems like I'm reliving the first bitcoin bubble which I was very active in.

I got into it when bitcoin first rose up to around $30 in 2010 or 2011, I forget now. I wanted to buy and I was in the forums listening to all the euphoric people. I slowly watched it lose steam, regain steam, and slowly look weaker and weaker.

To me right now bitcoin just looks weak and I think it will be going much lower during the next few weeks.

Just like in 2011, I told everybody while the price was still over $20 that they were crazy to not take profits and cash out at that time. Wasn't a few months it was at $2.00. Call me stupid but I did call $1.00 bitcoins at that time for a long time even though people thought it was crazy and flamed me to hell, I missed my $1.00 range to buy in as it hit $2.01. I was close enough. Same stupid mistake was I predicted oil would hit $20 a barrel in around 2008, it hit like $30, my plan to buy in big at $20 and I missed that opportunity.

While I don't hit my marks, at least I predict big downfalls, contrary to what most people believe.

I'm going to say to everybody that if you are not unloading a large portion of your bitcoins over $1000, you are simply crazy as a $1000 bitcoin is just not sustainable, and is outright ludicrous at this time. I am going to even say further that you are ridiculously stupid if you don't cash out a sizeable amount at over $1000, especially if your bitcoins were bought below $100.

The reason why bitcoin hit around $30 the first time, and over $1000 this time is that their are big players or manipulators, I like to call them. They pump the price up high, get people euphoric and get interest into the coin, then slowly dump the coin to make profits. Pump and dump I guess you can call the strategy.

This strategy simply works, it almost gets me (probably the most frugal person in the world) to buy bitcoins during the first bubble at $30, and even now at $1000. Because I am the most frugal person around I just can't get myself to buy at ridiculously stupid price points. I wait to buy at what you would consider my stupid price points, which get close but never hit. My point is that if these manipulators get frugal people like me to consider buying at these insane prices, it gets a lot of normal people to pump money into the system in which they profit from.

My last point is, don't be stupid and greedy and take money from these rich manipulators. They will soon be letting the price fall very soon and doing a controlled drop while cashing out all the coins they accumulated when bitcoin was much cheaper.

Flame away, but I will stick to my position.

Thanks for tipoff, just sold everything.

Don't think you will ever get coins for ~700 again, sorry to burst your bubble duder.

LOL, moron.

Why not? Bitcoin is entirely driven by speculators and as such there is no limit on the downside.

Yup..slowly cashing out (and losing money) on up to 70% of coins mostly bought with Btc at +$1000 price.....bought some at stages on the most recent correction....and have more on order at sub $840 prices down to $700.

Bitcoin is not inspiring me with confidence at the moment....If it can get to the end of this week holding at not much below where it is, but with a great big dirty red candle on the weekly chart, then it may appeal again to some investors...but until then, there is a real chance of this sucker going down.

Apparently the only way to keep people around is price doubling every month or so ...  ::)

That's obviously sarcasm is it not? There's enough bears around believe you me.

Of course there is, they are mostly those that invested week, two or three weeks ago and shitting their pants as soon as BTC dips 20$. To prove this just browse through speculation forums. Beside few permabears who enjoy being contrary cunts at 50/100/500/1000, no matter what, 99% of other bears that are openly shitting their pants are guys with 10-80 activity, newcomers that invested at higher points and can't sleep now thinking about their investment being wiped out.

Been there, been like that.

The bad thing for them is that those that invested earlier are usually much more loaded and are ready to slaughter them as they have experience to know that BTC always comes back and only government ban could stop it. Since most important Government basically gave a green light to crypto currencies 2 weeks ago they are pretty relaxed and know that despite inevitable dips, flash crashes or bear markets, there is only one mid-term/long-term direction. Up.

There always have been.  Every day there is a doom and gloom post by someone here.  This 1000 level takes us back to around the end of November.  That's a week and a half ago.  Let me repeat that: a week and a half ago.  A drop can reflect more accurate price information or it can be pure speculation.  Shrug.  People are getting shaken out.  Bye bye.  If you think it's a good technology, throw some money at it and buckle up.  This forum is rife with carpetbagger shills who troll just to get a rise out of people, influence the price, whatever.  Sure, the China news has rattled a lot of people.  I suppose people simply expected China to leave it unregulated forever.  This is foolish.  If Bitcoin becomes useless in China, so be it (although I doubt that will be the case).  Those who cannot use Bitcoin will be hurt in the short term and long term.  Bitcoin may take a hit in the short term.  Bitcoin will continue to be useful elsewhere, as will other alt currencies.  If Chinese acceptance is the benchmark for new technology, then I shudder at what the future holds.

Haha .. "contrary cunts" .. I love it.

let them sell, like most retards buy without research. sell because someone tells you, you should sell

Although you correctly predicted the fall from $30 in 2011, you made a worse error in put $1 bids and miss the train forever compared with those holding their $20 bitcoins.

For bitcoin, just predicting the fall is not enough. If you cannot find a good position to buy them all back, you are much worse than just holding them. Ask those who sold most holding at $30 in 2011 and $266 at April. Are they happy now because they sold exactly at the top that time?

All I have ever used Bitcoin to actually buy has been substance purchases on Silk Road probably way before most people on this forum even knew what Bitcoin was.

But until the day comes when I can put petrol in my car or buy a house with Bitcoin, I am primarily interested in increasing the amount of Fiat that I have.

To my understanding, the value of Bitcoin has rapidly outgrown its real world uses and its value is largely hoarding and speculator driven. Now, I thought this as Bitcoin soared past $100. A price level that would be unthinkable today, and I never got involved. Indeed, I have only shifted a sizeable portion of my capital over to Bitcoin since mid November 2013, having spent a very long time on the sidelines, thinking that surely the price cannot keep rising.

Based on my rational of being wrong all the way up from $100 to $1000, I have now entered at top of market and done quite well, although am losing now and selling at lower prices than I paid to limit damage. Perhaps Bitcoin could go all the way to $10'000, and I will always be willing to take a punt on it when the going looks good. But in the short term, Bitcoin could also go to $500 or even less. Right now, it is looking far more likely to head south in the next few days than head north. Long gone are the days when Bitcoin could be seen as a Anarchist Kid on the Block...something that the little man concerned with freedom should support. These days, Bitcoin is the ultimate speculative bubble, with the potential to deliver great riches, but also to suck wealth dry.

I don't plan on having my real wealth sucked dry. Right now, I have far too many Bitcoins and 70% of them are getting sold.

I will keep my fiat.

New entrants to the market represent the money that has most recently drove the price up. It stands to reason that newer money is going to be a whole lot more nervous and sensitive than old money. Those lucky enough to have properly invested even 1 or two months ago need to shtfu and stop bitching when those of us who have paid high prices for most of our BTC start getting twitchy.

Buying back in at sub $800 and all the way down to $500....if it goes down that far.

 

If you're strapped for cash, by all means cash out.  You'll drive yourself crazy watching the price ticker every day.  I completely agree that the price of a Bitcoin has outstripped its point of sale adoption.  I guess I just never saw Bitcoin as the answer for point of sale.  History may prove me wrong.  I see Bitcoin as a replacement for the global banking system.  I also see it as a sort of electronic precious metal.  That's just me.  You may see it as a currency for purchasing goods.  Cool.  I still prefer credit cards with a chargeback.

Remember - gold is pretty useless as a point of sale currency as well.  Just because you don't see people accepting gold, titanium, or megawatt-hours at Walmart doesn't mean it isn't valuable.

One thing I've learned is that betting against Bitcoin is generally unwise.  You think you have a pulse on the market and - bam, you wake up and it's taken a 180.  The truth is nobody really knows.

This lol you are talking like people who didn't listen to you and didnt sold at 20$ or whatever lost a big opportunity... lol, they are millionnaire now if they had a for 20 000$+. Maybe you predict the bubbles well, but you forget that long term it's still increasing like crazy, more than anything. You only make sense if you tell those people to sell in order to buy lower and increase their stash. Which I don't do, too much stress and like I said it's been growing since day 1 some I just hold.  But that's not what you seem to suggest. You seem to suggest straight get fiat for you bitcoins ASAP it will fall. Just like you did at 20$, which doesnt make sense.
And lol at you setting insanely low targets, if you wanna make money buy some for a few more dollars more than your target. It may go a bit lower but who cares. When I hear you missed the train at 2$ because you wanted them to be 1$ lower.. damn, you must hate yourself.

Right now, the bull is cowering behind a brick wall.

It is still intact, but shitting a brick.


Having bought a lot of coins recently at around 1000 - 1040 mark, I am now taking loss selling in order to minimise financial damages....have more ordered lined up for the possibly imminent slide down the greasy pole and as ever, am likely to change my outlook in a flash should more positive signs arise.

Bitcoin has been struggling around the $1k for various reasons.  Sunday was brutal .. blatant market manipulation combined with a hack on these forums.  Yesterday was brutal because people panicked over the Chinese intentions to regulate.  Today, people are just waiting for the next round of good news.  It did not come.  Just another day at the office.  I agree that the next few days will probably be "bleak", meaning well off of the ATH (but still incredible, almost unbelievable in the grand scheme of things).

'
 

You act like the world is crime free. I don't even wanna bring up how much fraud of credit and debit cards goes on.. your just spewing pure bs. You don't think multi billionaires horde oil, food, pm etc ? l

I'd rather take my mothers call of a re-tracement from 900 to 650 then whatever the hell your spewing for cheap coins, cause it was probably her first call out of the blue and followed the logic of we ran up really quick on smaller volume and were due for a selloff.

 And clearly if you thought it was going to 1 dollar and didn't buy at 10, 5,  2.50 .. then its just plain shameful and probably a lie. Go play in the btc-e troll box kthx.

Looking weak? It just had a record day on almost every exchange and is still greater than $1000. Plus it could be argued that it's in the process of putting in a solid double bottom.

I just don't think we are in a sustained bubble.

I think we'll see a 'crash' but I don't see prices going lower than $600 anymore.  And if it falls to $600 I personally don't think that's much of a crash, considering less than 60 days earlier we were at what, around $175.

It isn't a one-trick (gox) pony show anymore. I don't think we'll see a nose-dive this time around, even though I think BTC is over-valued right now.

Oh man I considered you to be smarter than that. You just never sell bitcoin cheaper than you bought it, because every dip is a temporary retrace. Your panic mode for bitcoin should mean "stop buying" and then when you think it stopped falling you start buying again. Any other way - and you are just robbing yourself. Can't stop you, of course, but sad to see.

He is precisely the sort of investor who feeds whales :/

You have to understand my decisions during that time were sound decisions. Bitcoin just months before sold for pennies, $30.00 was just a ridiculous price. Just like $1000 is totally insane and ridiculous.

When dealing with single digits, a swing from $5.00 to $1.00 is a 500% swing. That is huge, and is the same as going from $100 to $500.

So everything has to be taken into context with the time and the past historical values. Also, bitcoin is much older now and should be worth more than it was during that time. However, not $1000.00.

being a bear at $9 left a lot of room to scoop up much more coins

agreed.... no need to call tops and bottoms, though. there is a sentiment on this board that bears are always wrong, but the fact is, it pays off very well sometimes

A swing from $0.01 to $0.05 happened though, and $0.10 to $0.50, $1.00 to $5.00, $10 to $50, $100 to $500, and of course, $1000 must be where it stops.

yeah, um, acting like your opinion is absolute and calling someone stupid for thinking BTC's value is higher than $1k.. this sounds like a troll post to me.

Trying to predict which way the price is going is useless unless you're holding thousands and thousands of coins... it's honestly just gambling.

Either get out, or hold.  8)

Go to google type in bitcoin news and theres some bad sounding headlines. There is nothing particularly revealing in them tho.

Plus we had a huge run up, people need to get comfortable with four digit prices, before we go up again.

May as well just type in FUD.

 ;D

Could you give us a link to that old prediction?

Maybe they already got a huge bitcoin deposit yesterday, and today they want to sell their own stash before others do.

It's one thing to know when to sell. It's even more important to know when to buy back!

Did you buy back at, say $5? Sorry for being so harsh, but if you didn't then your advice is useless.

Selling at $20 and buying back at $50 is much worse than doing nothing at all... (unless of course you want to exit the bitcoin economy altogether?)

Added to the list of examples of how not to do it.

-MatTheCat (this thread)
-joburgtaxi (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=358584.0)

First they buy, then price drops, so they sell in order to 'limit damage'. Then when its going up again, and its 'proved' that it is now on an upward trajectory (after having climbed quite a way), they buy back in. This buy high sell low strategy is not a good way to make money.

I do very much agree to this. Everybody owning bitcoin is sitting on paper profits. A lot of people feel filthy rich ! But paper profits are nothing until you realize these. Has anyone ever thought what would happen if just 1% of all investors cash out. (or if everyone just sells 1% of his holding to buy X-mas gifts). This would be 120.000 coins coming to the market. The orderbooks do not look like as they would be able to cope with that without bringing the price significantly down. This does not include other people selling in panic.

The current small dips we have seen lately give an impression what could happen. If you compare the volume on these dips to the previous crashes, they are minor. This is just the beginning. I have seen 2000 coins moving the market by 10%. I know some people who have much more than that and hold tight, once they start selling.

This all went to fast and the smart investor will cash out at some point and I believe the point is coming closer. My personal target is the old peak of USD 266... I might be wrong and we might go much deeper.

Flame away...

Barring your past predictions/inaccuracy, what would you say the bottom will be this time?

From what I've learned about bubbles and bitcoin, I'd say your sentiment is spot on. Considering we were at $100 not that long ago, and looking at the current bitcoin mania, a >$1000 bitcoin will eventually lose steam.

My (speculative) math is showing USD 296, so I'm betting on 350, but the extraordinary thing about bitcoin, is that it will most likely recover, and shoot even further in a very short time span.

Just compare the April 2013 bubble to the NASDAQ (IXIC) 2000 bubble. Bitcoin went through the same motions in a single month instead of 5 years. Incredible.

Interesting, thanks for sharing. For those who believe in Chartanalysis, we have broken the daily 200 sma are failing to re-break for further upside. And the weekend is near....

No flame intended, but you'll have to forgive me if I decide not to take your advice.  Your arguments are less than compelling.

Arguments like "the price is ludicrous" and "you're crazy if you don't take profits now" without any sound logical reasoning behind them are not very convincing, and have the tone of someone who is nervous about losing whatever profits they could take right now.  And reasoning like "I've successfully called the crash before!" also doesn't hold water if your reasoning behind calling the last plunge was also emotional.  Inflammatory language like "stupid" and "crazy" tends to distance people from your argument, as does bullying your audience.

When you say "To me right now bitcoin just looks weak" without any logical arguments behind that conclusion, your argument appears strictly emotional.

One thing your post does tell me is that there are people in the market that are getting nervous and are about to sell for emotional reasons, and that once the price does dip a bit those emotional traders will panic and sell.  In a way, your prediction is self-fulfilling.

As for me, I have very little fiat in the market, but that value has grown quite a lot.  I plan to keep holding.  If Bitcoin continues to rise, or rises again after your predicted dip, I'm good.  If it ever crashes to 0, I'm not out much money.

I disagree that the current price is due to "rich" manipulators.  If people are doing anything in the market, they're taking advantage of panic sells in order to gain more profits, and you may be playing into their hands.

I am no expert, and have very little experience in these kinds of things.  These are simply my observations.

$250 in April was a lot different because the price had moved up there very quickly with no corrections and no price history. We were at $265 with a daily EMA of $115 and a weekly EMA of $50. Now we are at $1050 with a daily EMA of $910 and a weekly EMA of $400.

The part where we 'flashcrash' back to EMAs is already over. Any drop now is a slow capitulation grind, with a lowest possible target of $400.

With this kind of prediction you're going to make people sell, which will make the prices go down, which might make other people sell. Then at one point someone will say "The price is going up now" and people will buy, which makes the prices go up, which might make even more people buy.

Kind of like this:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vKTJwLxkY0o/TjpzzOeoyzI/AAAAAAAAAAY/NgFr8y9FPKQ/s1600/book-buy-sell-sell-sm.jpg

Self-fulfilling prophecy

This part I agree with. We simply will not be able to sustain such a low price indefinitely.

this thread all of a sudden has a little more relevance.

!!!SMACK DOWN!!!



May I just say, thank fk I know better than to listens to nutters like you!

Yes sir, I will keep my money and am looking forward to owning much more btc than I had, at yet lower prices.

I think what he is saying is instead of buying at $1000, selling at $900, then rebuying at $800, you are better off to continue to hold those $1000 coins, and still buy at $800.  That way, when the price returns to $1000+ you are more ahead than if you sold for a loss.

If we break $850 on Gox today (that seemed to be the floor in the past couple of days), we may see a nose dive to $600 level.

Scary day nonetheless, strap your seat belts!

Exactly what I had in mind, in the midst of all this sound advice telling me that I shouldn't sell $1100 coins for $1000, when the price looks certain to be going south of $800!

Great bunch of guys on this forum.....

Too late, we're already below $1000 $900.

last chance to take profits above USD 900...  :o

It's your money and your way to lose them :) We'll talk again once you buy at 1300.

Why should he buy at 1300 ? he will be able to buy around USD 600 soon...

look at the 1 day chart talkjing about DOUBLE TOP, look out down below!!! :P

Gow low hit 916 this time. Do you think we'll see more attempts to break 900 this weekend?

NorbyTheGreek gets it.

EDIT: Note that if you successfully sell at $900 and rebuy at $800, you would be better off than just holding what you bought at $1000 and buying more at $800. The reason for not selling at $900 is to hedge against the possibility that price doesn't make it to $800, and instead goes back up to over $1000. Buying back after this leads to a loss.

Maybe or maybe not. I would say yes, on this occasion, there is a good chance of going that low. But the only predictable thing about short term swings is that they are mostly unpredictable. Very easy to lose money trying to pick tops and bottoms. Instead, figure out your long term projection of price, and then devise your strategy to eliminate the risk of short term volatility.

Buy and hold is the simplest way to do this.

@MatTheCat: I hope we do go below $800, and you get to buy your cheap coins. Out of interest, if we recover from here, and go above $1000 again, do you have a price at which you will buy back in, if it continues to climb?

I'm gonna get more money to cavirtex this week in preparation...
I'm actually hoping for a 2 to 3 month consolidation before the bubble that makes bitcoins a viable worldwide barter ledger

LOL.
 
Can I ask a question?

How silly are you feeling right now?

Here sir, is downwards bidding plan:

OPEN ORDERS
Order type   Date and time   BTC amount   Bitcoin price      
Buy   Dec. 6, 2013, 1:48 a.m.   5.00000000   $720.00   $3,600.00   
Buy   Dec. 6, 2013, 8:19 a.m.   2.80000000   $680.00   $1,904.00   
Buy   Dec. 6, 2013, 4:57 p.m.   3.00000000   $640.00   $1,920.00   
Buy   Dec. 6, 2013, 7:01 p.m.   5.00000000   $620.00   $3,100.00   

Bitstamp prices.

Now, I just hope that the CRASH isn't so brutal that I am the one who is left feeling very silly.

Good plan, get that fiat ready. There will be good buys within the next week.

GoxLooping™

My first buy in is set at around......$720 I think.....then I stage it all the way down to $600 to the tune of 10k

Even with this, I feel I am taking a risk. If however it doesn't get as far down as my buy in plan, then I start buying back in when I see some kind of stability emerge out of all this at whatever price that comes at, but come it will.

Have to commend OP on the fact that he actually predicted the market is going down, few hours below it actually happened.

Agree with the OP, this is the time to take BTC off the table.

At current price (~$800), you may have missed out on getting $1000+ , but believe me and him, this price is going lower and there is still a good opportunity to offload your coins and take a nice profit - if you were in at $100, $200 or less - or a small loss, if you were in around $1000.

I don't agree its because of a single manipulator - it could be , of course - but I think its because of the bubble syndrome. Too many weak hands in USA, Europe and China - bought in too quickly.

Also , bitcoin does not need such a high value - it is simply because of the media frenzy that has driven the price.

I also agree that , given the risks inherent with bitcoin , the current valuation seems ridiculous.

You guys need to be aware that this price can drop 75% from it's high. It's totally possible and we haven't seen it since the price reached $1000. Also , after a big crash there is not necessarily going to be a reason for it to "recover" quickly.

People predict it every single day. Like waking up every day shouting "this is the day I die".

This was pretty good advice...

I'm a huge bitcoin fan, and believe in it long term, but understand it has a lot of volatility.

Based on this advice, I sold all coins, then took a short position. 

Thanks for the advice, it made me think about the best way to invest in bitcoin for both short and long term.

Can't wait to buy more at the bottom..

sad but true at least for the past few hours. what's the bottom projection? 600's been going around and we're there...  :-\

I have some limits placed around 120 to 150, but would not rule out double digits

After the 265 peak, the lowest we saw was 65, or ~25% of peak. A little below the average 30% for tech bubbles crashes.

GoxUSD peaked at $1240, so a crash to 25% would be ~$300. I'm not sure we'll ever see double digits again, until bitcoin is displaced.

this thread turned out quite interestingly accurate.  :P we're going 570 right now and lower..

Edward50 we need you! Would love it if could predict the bottom of this crash and the approx date.

I sense the same need right now. Edward50, hes quite good at predictions!

The timing of this thread is what makes it exceptional. It's been quite a drop since then. Hard to say when or if a bottom's been reached. There's been a nice bounce at around 600 and it almost looks safe to buy back in (If you hadn't been buying the slide already) but then again, it could just be another bump on a slow, agonizing, downslope the likes of which we have not seen since the first time from 30 down to 2.

I don't even try to time this kind of crap. I'll leave that to the mentats like Edward50  ;)

You're talking out of your ass so much perhaps you should let your bot take over your comments altogether

My two satoshis for people who strike out like that: spread out your orders, don't bet everything on a single price point. I like to distribute my orders on a bell-shaped curve centered on my main prediction, for example.

I LOL at all the people who were like "It's not going to crash, you're an idiot!"

I think all those comments were deleted now, everyone knows they're wrong and that OP was right.

Not feeling silly at all, I just don't take such risks as bidding against a long-term trend and you do, this time it worked for you, grats, but as I said, we will talk when you buy at 1300, this day will be soon :) It's just a delay and a good (welcome) opportunity to buy, for me as well, but I don't feel safe being out of more than 20% of my BTC position - it's always smarter to just increase it a little at the dips after they happen, rather than try to time them and get out completely and risk decreasing your position alot. Sometimes taking a risk pays off, I give you that, but I don't like gambling with alot of money :)

I like slowly building my position at opportunities. Bought 20 at 650, and plan to do the same if, for some reason, the dip goes to 550 and 450 etc. It still could, does not mean I would be selling anything, trying to predict where bitcoin would go tomorrow :) It is impossible. There is only one thing you should know - where it's headed in a year.

I said from the start that it probably won't go below 700. It did, briefly, but it's back over the 750 mark already. And looks to be rising. Don't think it will go much lower from here if at all, and another week or so should see us back near 1k.

I wouldn't even call this a crash, it's normal and expected for these events to happen. A crash to me is where b&h turns out to be a bad investment over more than at least a few weeks. Hasn't happened.

266 to 50.

also, a bottom like that only lasts a minute, and is due to momentum. We already bottomed out.

576.