Bitcoin Forum

Yes, those who get scared they will lose their millions and dump 10000+ or more at the market, starting an avalanche. I'm convinced that pump and dump has been going on for a long time, the question is, when will they overdo it to kill it all.

according to mt gox it only takes one market dump of 87,000 btc to take price back down to $50 yip yip

Actually i think that is fairly inevitable since bitcoin is far too overvalued currently.
A drop to more sane levels and trending steadily upwards afterwards via organic growth instead of speculation would be a lot healthier imho.

Is this amount based on real life evidence or just speculation?


Overvalued in what way? It's only value is in what people are prepared to pay, Sounds like you just want to catch a cheap ride on the bitcoin train back up.

+1

On the contrary, i´m selling as fast as my asic will mine. I dont trust this bubble. No idea when it will crash or far it will still rise before then.

What makes you think it's a bubble? It's gone from over 1000-ish to 9000-ish a few times the past couple of weeks and always bounced back. Seems silly to sell now imo, unless you're doing day trades.

like anyone who has even 10,000 BTC would kill his own wealth by dumping.

Compare the current price to the price a year ago. And now tell me what has changed since. What?
The number of transactions has only gone up by about 70% since. It isnt even used twice as much as last year, but the price has climbed nearly hundred fold.
So, what has happened? Is bitcoin more usefull than last year? The only thing that has changed since is awareness, it has been been in the press a lot, sure.
The value as a transaction medium hasnt increased significantly, but the price has skyrocketed.
So, i think it should rather ask you what makes you think this isnt a bubble?

and to think about that one single entity holds well over a million coins, or more than 10% of all the coins in circulation? can you even imagine that in fiat money terms? who would trust that kind of money, especially since you dont even know who the boss is.

This isn't a well-known fact, but once it gets out, this thing is gone. no sane investor would take the risk knowing the above. And I'm thinking of the Chinese.

if they panic in the face of losing a couple million, why wouldnt they? would you care if others are hurt if you can cash your 10 million dollars out today without the risk of losing all of it due to some Chinese regulation? Or would you hold on to it in the hope that one day it will be even more? I would dump. and then cash out in CNY.

this volatility is clearly not due to the regular investor, rather those with thousands of coins playing the market every day and making more and more.

He's talking about a market order, not converting into fiat in an attempt to preserve wealth (a limit order).

This would require literally throwing away millions with the intent of driving the price down.

If someone is stupid enough to dump a big stash all at once and not get a good price for their coins by selling in smaller chunks, let them do so. The coins will be more evenly distributed among bitcoin population, good for all in the long run.

they could just dump in order to drive the price down and then buy some back. and then repeat. pretty sure that's been going on since the beginning. look at all the other funny coins, same thing.

Well, to this I'd reply, if someone is stupid enough to dump when they see the dumping is already happening, then they either don't believe in the fundamentals, or too chicken to play this game. They better be out of it anyway. So it's all for the good in the long run. In the long run, if you believe in the fundamentals, you hold, no matter what games are going on around you, and only offload when the price goes up, never when the price goes down.

What's the exact source?
I can't trust this. there are many wallets with over 10k bitcoins out there...

Simply go here (http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/). Type in 87001 in the box and copy ´n paste the dollar value into a calculator. Next Type 87000 into the sell box and subtract the dolar value from the first value.
Currently the difference is $30, not $50. So selling 87k BTC would drop the price at Gox to $30 even.

I don't think that you can find people that are more hardcore hoarders than early adopters. Most of them just hoard and wait for the price to hit 100k or 1m $.  ::)

they have been pumping and dumping and making millions from that alone. when they feel the market can't bear more, why not dump and abandon all? what does it matter to those who have made a hundred million already?

You are talking about speculators. I can hardly find any speculators among the early adopters.

Price can't go to $50 unless a catastrophic news, period.


Please provide some facts.

Redistribution of wealth.  Once more people have these coins things will be better. And less radical. 

Do you think the early adopters are naive? They will only withdraw on different peak instances. And considering AML regulations, they can't at this time cash out more than BTC10 at a time.

I can't because you quoted something that another guy said under my name  ::)
fix it please  :P

It's true that those holding a large amount of coins could bring down Bitcoin, however this would be temporary. Bitcoin users would need a concrete reason abandon Bitcoin, a load us would just buy from all the idiot panic sellers and reap the rewards. The only way Bitcoin is going down long term is if it gets outlawed or some kind of regulations prohibit its use on a global scale. Only bears should be fearful of this.  ;D

Losing your temper and calling panic sellers idiots doesn't look like you believe to much on what you say.
Just saying  ::)

do you think they didnt speculate on becoming rich? do you think they would tell you when and how much they are selling?

if anything, i think bitcoin will be destroyed by fear mongers or unrealistic bulls. please fall somewhere in between those two extremes.

Dictionary

The term "panic sellers" refers to someone who irrationally sells without any rational reason, basically without using common sense so I would refer to them as idiots, or at least ignorant as I can understand newbies selling without considering all the factors. Also I am not losing my temper either way, I am having fun building a game with some beers, while wishing I had my FIAT to buy some cheap coins.  ;D

This is what makes markets function.... buyers and sellers..... moving from weak hands to stronger hands with a higher cost basis.

It all really boils down to long term fundamentals. There are no P/E ratios to look at EBITA or book value. The PRIME factors of future price are:
(1) Adoption rate and reach, and;
(2) Government acceptance or tolerance

Everything else is background noise.

If more and more merchants accept bitcoin.. and if more and more people USE (not just hoard) bitcoin, it will trade at a higher price in the future.

Until then.... if you are a believer but don't have a position, keep accumulating and use the power of dollar cost averaging.

If you are not a believer but a big holder, sell on strength... Simple.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong. LOL

SQ

so.... what I said may just have happened.

Outside of "destroyed" and "early adopters," yeah, I'd say you were.

I find it more interesting to look statswise when possible early adopters spent their BTC (https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed) (note that this is not a indication of BTC being turned into cash, you can see a spike where the silk road closure happened). While they manage to sell before it crashes/corrects/"insert your preferred term here", most of the value fluctuation seems to be caused by... short-term speculators trading virtually.

And from what I heard about early adopters, most of them sell their BTC in batches rather than their whole amount.

If anything, Bitcoin has proven its resiliency through speculative bubbles and crashes. The real threat is if there is a vulnerability or flaw in the protocol or from government crackdown.

Obviously. Anyone with half a brain and lots of BTC would see "Hmm, if i sell x BTC i get y USD, but if i sell 10*x BTC i would get 2*y USD" ...

1) Early adopters got scared long ago, several big bubbles ago. If they didn't sell big then, they'll sell even less now.

2) Dishoarding rates for early adopters are probably around 17% per doubling of the price. It's delusional to imagine there are all these people with middle-class fiat net worth and millions and millions in Bitcoin who never thought to sell it in pieces on the way up. You're about two years too late in worrying about this.

Though what you say may look logical, this logic is still rather questionable. Overvalued means a bubble here, very simple to grasp really. Bubble means there is no real demand for Bitcoin, just speculative one. We can take a real estate bubble as an evident example where people would buy houses to only sell further at higher price, not for the sake of living in. It may actually turn out that 90% of Bitcoin price is pure speculation...

Well, people are still buying things with it. In fact, in the longrun I think you could probably argue that it is undervalued. The more and more merchants start accepting it the more valuable it will become. All it'll take is one big company to start accepting it and boom. Gradual or quick mainstream acceptance will push the price up vastly. Let's see what the price of 1BTC is and what it can get you in a years time. Only time will tell on this one. I'm looking forward to the ride.

No, it is not undervalued if the merchants don't accept it right now. Such mode of "reasoning" is called wishful thinking - "an attitude or belief that something you want to happen will happen though it may not happen or unlikely to happen at all". With such volatility I doubt strongly it will occur any time soon if ever ("one big company to start accepting it and boom")...

Well , I didn't get destroyed and it wont.
It's the early adopters that have the least desire to destroy this coins. As for the dump and pump scheme , it can happen even without them.

But merchants do accept it. Such mode of "reasoning" is more optimism than wishful thinking. As I said, only time will tell and I'm enjoying the ride.

Their numbers are minuscule at best. And the "merchants" you're talking about come primarily from gambling industry and bitcoin mining equipment production. I'm not taking into account somebody selling a Tesla car here or buying a house there for bitcoins. These cases are sporadic and far in between...

Why are you putting merchants in brackets? There's more than you think and more are popping up every day. There's quite a few big developments happening here in the UK already. I reckon the rate of businesses accepting bitcoins next year will be increasing quite dramatically. It's early days for Bitcoin/crypotcurrencies, but it's obviously making waves.

I've heard that more than half of bitcoin transactions come from some gambling site, don't quite remember its name (maybe SatoshiDice?). It is not the number of transactions that actually counts but rather volume transacted, but still it is no more than idle talk really unless we have accurate figures at our disposal...

You are assuming that the early adopters have any say in whether Bitcoin lives or dies.

Bitcoin simply cannot be controlled.  Anyone who tries will fail...period.

So, you are saying the people with the majority of stakes in this game have nothing to say?
And as for controlling, do you think China will fail because of limiting the use in their country?

People without Bitcoin will simply move to a different currency making Bitcoin worthless...its that simple.

even the guy holding 10% of all the coins? you cant be serious. there are 5 people holding at least 20-30% of all coins. they could do it any time.

You can't destroy bitcoin with the price , end , point , end.
Even if they control 10% each time they pull a stunt like that they lose a few of their coins , things can't go like that forever.

This has been debated since 2011 but yet it never happened.

Early adopters with tens of k's of BTC are strong hands. They already witnessed a crash that made BTC lose 96% of its value (2011 - $32 to $2) and they didn't blink. Those who wanted to cash out hundred of thousands of BTC (Like Sirius or Druid) already did it.

They are mostly nerds, geeks and visionaries - not the average joe who invested in BTC his life savings.

Plus, everybody with such holdings knows they cannot just have $100MM on Gox or Bitstamp and have them wired to their personal account. That just cannot happen and they know it.

And FYI: they are already "cashing out". Slowly and gradually. And even if they go crazy and want to cash out in a single big dump, they won't be able to. Maybe you don't know it, but somebody already dumped half a million coins on Gox in 2011, taking the price to $0.01. Do you know what happened? Gox halted trading and then rolled back that order.

You implicitly assume here that they can only sell their stash. Why would they? It would be logical for them as the earliest adoptors to protect their advantage and competitive edge and at the same time make use of an opportunity to raise some money whenever possible...

Bitcoin is already at the point where I don't want to use it as a currency and am thinking of moving to litecoin.

In order for Bitcoin to be usable I need to be able to buy a bunch without breaking the bank and not be afraid to spend them.

If the price of Bitcoin is too high it does 2 things:
1. Forces me to buy small amounts of BTC for a price that I simply can't afford.  Buying "what I can afford" kills me in exchange fees.
2. Makes me feel like its too valuable to spend.

Contrary to what some people think, some people want to use BTC as it was intended...to buy and sell shit.

With that being said, everyone who engages in BTC needs to put their speculation hat on once in awile because of it's volatility.

And you're safe buying 1000$ worth of LTC and not 1000$ of BTC.
This is a bit amazing considering we're talking about a difference of 1/6 market cap.

You'll have a far more influence in price swings when buying 1000$ worth of LTC than btc.

it would be obvious, and people will move to another coin, they'd lose all their money if they even tried, noone would be stupid enough to do it, and if they would, they'd be the only victims of their own greed.

the stupidity, it hurts.....

you don't have to buy whole bitcoins. if you have $500 to invest, buy ~0.7 bitcoins, if you have $5 to invest, buy ~0.007 bitcoins. if you have $0.05 to invest, buy a few satoshi.

Litecoin is not better than bitcoin in any way, and in my opinion litecoin is only used by daytraders and people who are too stupid to realize litecoin does not have any advantages over bitcoin and is just a cheap ripoff.

Bitcoin too valuable to spent? of course not, you can spent 0.005BTC bitcoin to buy a coffee, who cares? In a few year you may pay 0.000005BTC for a coffee, no big deal.

If you can afford to buy it in dollars, you can afford to buy it in bitcoins.

If you can't afford it in bitcoins, you can't afford it in dollar either. It doesn't matter if a bitcoin is worth $10,000,000 or $0.10

listen to me good, all this talk of early adopters and strong hands. everybody has a price and real life circumstances. each person knows what there btc wallet is worth and also what it can buy in the real world. when their desire for the real world things overcomes their love for bitcoin, at that point, no more strong hands baby!

why are you using MM instead of just M?

Just because it is the standard abbreviation i see in most of the financial media as per Financial Times or The Economist.

Why? Well, I didn't know until you asked, but google Is my friend: http://www.ask.com/question/does-mm-stand-for-million-or-thousand

From Mt.GOX

You can do bank transfers to our bank in Japan in the following currencies:
 USD, GBP, EUR, CAD, CHF, SEK, DKK, NOK, AUD , NZD, HKD, SGD.  Any fee charged by your bank or an intermediate bank will be deducted.  Our bank charges a 1,500 Yen receiving fee. 

MM is a wrong and confusing abbreviation.

use k (kilo) for 1000 and M (Mega) for million.

i have never seen MM before.


yeah so? the fee is the same no matter what. it doesn't make bitcoin more expensive.

Your right...it doesn't make Bitcoin itself more expensive however it makes it more expensive to exchange fiat for BTC that's all.

For normal people with limited resources, dumping $1200 into 1BTC when all you need is .10BTC can be difficult.

Zimmah: if you have never seen MM probably you don't read financial newspapers. It is a standard abbreviation for millions used in specialized media - M is the latin for thousand, MM = thousand of thousands.

If you think it is confusing you could start writing a letter to the economist, yahoo finance or zerohedge, as they (and many more) use MM quite a lot. Examples:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-confirms-t-f1-rtg-171300750.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-18/mf-global-admits-liability-will-pay-12bn-restitution-100mm-penalty

You could ask them to use only M from now on.

Dictionary of acronyms and abbreviations: http://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/MM

Anyhow, this is irrelevant. M or MM are both correct, and no one is confusing because the context makes pretty clear that we are speaking of millions.

How to convert bitcoin to dollars in U.S when It is the forbidden ?
Why people from U.S buying bitcoin when it can not convert to USD ?

This is a conspiracy U.S  (the largest buyers of U.S) 
U.S want to steal money from Chinese people !!!

Bitcoin transaction maps in real time: http://fiatleak.com/

Bitcoin is a super secret project of the U.S. and that have understood in time, China, France, Russia.
This project serves to rob people from other countries.

Russia has never had any bitcoin exchange because he knew about that. BTC-e not Russian exchange its Europe,


Now more and more countries this will understand.

U.S give most BTC to China and takes most real money of the Chinese people. Give nothing for real money !!!
It is tactical general impoverishment of China.

http://fiatleak.com/

CNY is the best and safest investment out there today. if you have a lot of money you can go to HK and open a CNY account there. of course you can also go to china.

hmm.... is it too early to say 'I told you so'?

Most of the comments in this thread are missing one key issue... mining difficulty.
 
Sure, BTC has gone up and down in the past and was near $100 USD/BTC for most of 2013, but for most of 2013 you could mine profitably at $100/BTC.  If BTC drops down to $100 USD/BTC, it will kill Bitcoin because no one will mine and there is no sufficient adoption sans mining.  Even if difficulty drops, difficulty will still be an order of magnitude above what it was in 2013 because of the improvement in ASIC's. 

I disagree, most the hashing power comes from SHA256 ASICs, what will people use their ASICs for? Nothing..
Why not leave it on to mine, even if you barely make any profits.

Get what I mean?

you have no understanding of economics whatsoever.

Guess what happens if a bunch of miners become unprofitable? The difficulty declines. And then? Well some become profitable again. Ect ect.

Yea and also, even if the price declines and the difficulty stays same, why wouldn't people mine it, I mean what else can you do with ASICs?

Turning off the money-burning machines seems like an attractive option.

Mine a different SHA256 coin like Peercoin that's what.

Kills me how everything thinks Bitcoin is the only coin out there.