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Title: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: lacedwithkerosene on August 09, 2011, 07:16:38 PM The markets tend to go up the day after heavy news and search traffic. I had noticed a week-long trend of increased searches but the market had been staying even, so it was to be expected that it would make a strong move. If you were following search trends during the last couple of weeks where price was very stable but drained a few cents every day, search volume for bitcoin was remarkably flat.
http://imgur.com/jqQEV.jpg http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0 Title: Re: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: ribuck on August 09, 2011, 07:20:27 PM 1. Buy some bitcoins.
2. Do something newsworthy so that Google Trends will rise. 3. Sell bitcoins. 4. Profit! Title: Re: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: bb on August 09, 2011, 07:32:30 PM Well, it was by me at least :D http://imgur.com/jqQEV.jpg http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0 This would also have made you buy on Aug 03, losing money. Title: Re: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: lacedwithkerosene on August 09, 2011, 07:55:25 PM This would also have made you buy on Aug 03, losing money. This is a search volume graph, not a financial graph. The market lags a day behind heavy news and search traffic. Price may shoot up on a day that search volume falls. Do you have historical daily prices saved somewhere? I do not recall if btc price fell significantly on the 4th. Title: Re: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: bb on August 09, 2011, 08:41:08 PM It's not exactly easy to extract dates from these charts: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig5-minzvztgSzbgBza1gWMAzm1g2za2gWMAzm2g5zxzi1gVolzi2gUO (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig5-minzvztgSzbgBza1gWMAzm1g2za2gWMAzm2g5zxzi1gVolzi2gUO)
Title: Re: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: Tasty Champa on August 10, 2011, 02:06:02 AM This would also have made you buy on Aug 03, losing money. This is a search volume graph, not a financial graph. The market lags a day behind heavy news and search traffic. Price may shoot up on a day that search volume falls. Do you have historical daily prices saved somewhere? I do not recall if btc price fell significantly on the 4th. fell on the 4th and fell significantly on the 5th: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zczsg2011-07-04zeg2011-07-06zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 Title: Re: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: lacedwithkerosene on August 10, 2011, 02:16:07 AM fell on the 4th and fell significantly on the 5th: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zczsg2011-07-04zeg2011-07-06zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 You selected July, not August. August 3rd: Search volume goes up (as price happens to fall) August 4th: Price rises (as search volume happens to fall) Again, the day after higher search volume, the market seems to have reacted. https://i.imgur.com/77KVv.jpg Title: Re: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends. Post by: wumpus on August 10, 2011, 08:26:50 AM All the crystal ball gazers were too busy predicting a further decline to even think about the possibility of a rally :)
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