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Title: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: AnonyMint on December 07, 2013, 03:51:51 AM Just woke and ready to convert to pesos, but the price is $770. Any one willing to offer a trading opinion? Should I rush to convert now or wait it out? Googling Bitcoin price, shows Greenspace said something (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-04/greenspan-says-bitcoin-a-bubble-without-intrinsic-currency-value.html) about it being a bubble and no intrinsic value. Does this remove some resolve of the bulls or should I just wait for them to scoop up the panic sells of the weak hands? I guess we should pay attention to the volume on the exchanges? If volume slows down that would be a sign of declining number of panic sellers? Technical analysis traders please comment. Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: superduh on December 07, 2013, 04:01:06 AM why would anyone listen to anything greenspan says now. his track record sucks badly
Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: testerx on December 07, 2013, 04:05:31 AM Where are the other choices...I think it'll crash to somewhat above the pre-bubble price, of course this bubble started in the mid $100's so there's a lot of room here as to what that means. I'm guessing like $300ish-450 before eventually going back up and becoming even more valuable than it is now. That'll likely take some time though, but this is probably good-bitcoin is now out there and much more seriously taken and we just have to work on getting more countries to openly accept it. Korea is a good start but losing China is a big, big hit. We need like, Chinese lobbyists for Bitcoin basically.
Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: AnonyMint on December 07, 2013, 04:07:57 AM right now the news is bad so until we can get the Chinese government to change their mind it's going to be a huge drag on the largest driver of growth. Already Baidu had to stop accepting BTC. Please explain. I thought Baidu was only accepting it for security products, not on their entire site. And I thought the Chinese ruling said Bitcoin was legal, just regulated the exchanges and disallowed financial institutions from doing certain activities with Bitcoins. This seemed to me to be acceptance of Bitcoin more than they did for QQQ. It actually scared me because it appears the governments want to nurture Bitcoin (because I have a very negative view of Bitcoin as being a tool of the government to bring about a fiat electronic currency). Sell the erroneous rumor (China embracing BTC two weeks ago), buy (the wrong interpretation of the) news in this case (China against Bitcoin)? It really peaked out at $1200. Twin peaks. And the giddy rush in about China (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=360664.msg3860304#msg3860304). I think that pretty much sucked the greater fools for the time being. Probably headed below $500 and take a while to rebuild the moment again. My 2 cents. Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: t1000 on December 07, 2013, 04:10:41 AM "You really have to stretch your imagination to infer what the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is. I haven't been able to do it."
For many years, Greenspan was paid to stretch his imagination to infer the intrinsic value of debt based money. Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: testerx on December 07, 2013, 04:15:17 AM right now the news is bad so until we can get the Chinese government to change their mind it's going to be a huge drag on the largest driver of growth. Already Baidu had to stop accepting BTC. Please explain. I thought Baidu was only accepting it for security products, not on their entire site. And I thought the Chinese ruling said Bitcoin was legal, just regulated the exchanges and disallowed financial institutions from doing certain activities with Bitcoins. This seemed to me to be acceptance of Bitcoin more than they did for QQQ. It actually scared me because it appears the governments want to nurture Bitcoin (because I have a very negative view of Bitcoin as being a tool of the government to bring about a fiat electronic currency). Sell the erroneous rumor (China embracing BTC two weeks ago), buy (the wrong interpretation of the) news in this case (China against Bitcoin)? But the problem is that even though Baidu barely used it, they had to stop using it because of the new rules. The rules state that 1) financial companies are not allowed to exchange BTC into Yuan anymore (which means BTC China is gonna be screwed real soon), and there are also rules that BTC cannot be treated as a real currency-you cannot price anything in Bitcoins. You are still free to speculate and buy bitcoins but with these restrictions it's going to be near impossible to use. It's actually really curious how BTC China will deal with this-the government literally just said that financial institutions CANNOT change between CNY and BTC and that's basically ALL that BTC China does. Without an exchange how long do you think Bitcoin will last in China? Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: AnonyMint on December 07, 2013, 04:17:10 AM The rules state that 1) financial companies are not allowed to exchange BTC into Yuan anymore (which means BTC China is gonna be screwed real soon), and there are also rules that BTC cannot be treated as a real currency-you cannot price anything in Bitcoins. Okay that is pretty bad. That blows the bubble of "China is coming". Without use as a currency, Bitcoin is dead in China. Are you sure of your interpretation? Why didn't Mike Lee say this, seemed I read he had positive things to say about the ruling? Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: AnonyMint on December 07, 2013, 05:01:29 AM Can anyone confirm whether everyone in BTC China won't be able to cash out? That seems to be a ludicrous assertion. How could the central bank say that they allow exchanges but then no one can buy or sell for CNY. That doesn't make any sense to me.
Rather I am thinking they only banned the financial institutions from trading in Bitcoin. What would all the current BTC China holders do if they can't cash out in CNY? Cash out in another currency abroad? http://www.coindesk.com/baidu-stops-bitcoin-price-slumps-again/ Quote Earlier this week, China’s central bank along with four government ministries released a statement effectively outlawing banks to use bitcoin (http://www.coindesk.com/price-crashes-china-outlaws-bitcoin-financial-institutions/), which could cause problems for any business that might exchange BTC for the Chinese Yuan. That doesn't appear to say that BTC China can't have a bank account in CNY. Or does that mean BTC China would have to take physical CNY and be its own bank? Ludicrous. Some say this: And we can cash in/out freely . Did China really make it illegal for merchants to accept Bitcoin? Thus they killed any chance for it to be used a currency? Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: pjviitas on December 07, 2013, 05:35:35 AM Ya Greenspan sucks...I wouldn't get him to balance my cheque-book.
If you looked up the definition of "spineless shill for the banks" his name would be there. Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: Argwai96 on December 07, 2013, 05:47:39 AM not much impact from greenspan. i think the announcement from Chinese regulators prohibiting financial institutions from dealing in bitcoin ruffled more feathers.
Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: AnonyMint on December 07, 2013, 06:12:45 AM Okay I agree Greenspan wasn't the main factor. And I found the answer regarding the correct interpretation of the recent China news.
Very bullish. I am changing my vote to the most bullish one. However, general public may trade bitcoin on the internet by taking their own risk. How is that not uber-bullish?Because if merchants aren't allowed to accept it as currency then that is a major blow for bitcoin adoption in China. However it's not clear to me if that is the case. From the 'human translation' on reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1s5hzl/my_human_translation_of_the_china_regulation/ "Bitcoin is a specified virtual commodity, it does not have equal legal status with Note the important correction. That could be interpreted to mean that any Chinese business should not treat bitcoin as My father is a former West Coast division head attorney for Exxon. I appear to have inherited some of his high IQ ability to interpret the law. I can't find anything in this document that specifically bans the bolded assumption. This document is merely stating that Bitcoin will not be allowed to circulate widely as a currency to compete with RMB, because all volatility risk will remain outside the financial sector in the private parties and exchanges. It is very free market way of saying Bitcoin will not be backed by the government's system. There is nothing stopping businesses from accepting it, and converting it to RMB via a registered exchange. The government will not likely clamp down on small scale acceptance, as it presents no credible threat to RMB. As we all see now, businesses are forced to convert to fiat immediately if they have significant expenses in fiat, i.e. Bitcoin presents no threat to fiat at the moment because of its volatility and the need for businesses to have fiat to pay their employees and operating expenses, etc.. Note small scale in China is big scale relative to current Bitcoin market size given the large population. Bitcoin is only in the tens of $billion range of market cap. Fiat finance is in the hundreds of $trillions. Bitcoin can grow immensely while still being small scale relative to fiat finance market size. Whereas, (small) businesses could keep their profits in BTC, as easydns did (PenAndPaper username). Of course big businesses can't because the Bitcoin market cap is too small any way, besides big businesses are not into such risk. The document is saying that non-financial entities must accept risk of holding BTC. So this does not to stop the trajectory of Bitcoin in China. Exchanges can still operate and are not prevented from having a bank account to operate with. The document only bans financial institutions (and payment providers) from being market makers, underwriting, insurance, etc. In other words, all the risk and market making must be done by individuals and exchanges. What they have done is simply kept Bitcoin in the free market-- the wild west. This is an extremely bullish outcome. They have clarified that Bitcoin is legal for its small scale free market functions. The Baidu thing is very suspicious. They accepted for a very small portion of their business which was misunderstood and caused a euphoria, then they dump when people misunderstand the ruling above, in order to create panic. Looks like some manipulators are getting rich on BTC pump & dump & rebuy on the dump. Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: beetcoin on December 07, 2013, 06:17:21 AM do you really think people base their decisions on what alan greenspan says? i mean, i'm not even sure if he's that well respected. since when do bitcoiners enshrine federal reserve chairmen? we hate bernanke and him as much as anyone.
Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: Gimmelfarb on December 07, 2013, 06:23:15 AM i dont think the people who buy bitcoins would be influenced by him. but i do think people generally would be to some extent.
Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: AnonyMint on December 07, 2013, 06:58:38 AM I created a poll (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=360763.0) to ask if my interpretation of the recent China news is correct.
Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: monkeybars on December 07, 2013, 07:20:18 AM This poll is ridiculous. The bewildered comments of a senile octogenarian have no effect whatsoever on the price of Bitcoin.
Title: Re: Impact of Greenspan's comments? Post by: porc on December 07, 2013, 03:33:41 PM I dont think Greenspans comment had any impact.
I believe the price of bitcoins will collapse as it wont be used as a medium of exchange or store of value. |