Bitcoin Forum

This is my first post on this forum, but I've been warning people on other sites and Twitter that at this time BTC is in a bubble, but no one wanted to listen.  I was attacked ferociously for my short term bearish view.  That is one of the SUREST signs that a bubble is about to pop.  The "true believers" attack any opposing view as ridiculous.

Look at this chart showing the stages of a bubble.  Bitcoin believers defending this drop as no big deal, buying opportunity, from weak hands to strong hands etc. etc.  THIS IS THE DENIAL STAGE.  Long way to go before believers hit DESPONDENCY.

https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/409383193796550656/photo/1 (https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/409383193796550656/photo/1)

I assume you are another person who panic sold at $500. Get over it.

You assume wrong.  I have never owned one CENT of btc.  I am NOT short and I don't plan on ever shorting btc.

And btw it hasn't hit $500...yet.  The low was on Mt. Gox was $576.

Things that fluctuate as much as 50% daily do not have that many significant digits. As for your commitment, put your money where your mouth is. For your information, you will be disappointed if you think threads like this can affect the price.

There is ZERO chance that my posts will influence the price.  I am not delusional.  I am just someone who has experienced first hand the implosion of the dot com bubble and the real estate/credit bubble.  I just call 'em as I see 'em.

Just trying to tell people that "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

As for putting my money where my mouth is, anything that moves 50% in 1 day, in either direction, is untradeable.  I know that so why would I short btc?  No thanks.  I'll let idiots try that.

Exactly^ the price fluctuates so much every single day. Your whole chart on what you think is happening is horrible. It dis the same thing around the 20th of November and came right back up..

My chart is not horrible because it is just a reflection of every single bubble that has popped in human history.  Tulip, South Sea bubble, U.S. railroad bubbles in the 1800's, stock market bubble of 1920's, dot com bubble, real estate/credit bubble.  

The emotions on the chart were repeated in every single one of those bubbles.  Its just a chart showing the stages of emotion, not a prediction.

Again, I am getting attacked by the true believers in btc that my warnings and charts are worthless, horrible, stupid, laughable etc. etc.  That is the denial/anger stage.  Just watch it will play out like it always does.

As for what happened Nov. 20th, its not the same b/c after Nov. 20 btc went on to new highs / higher than the Nov. 19 high.  The diff this time is that btc is making low highs and lower lows.  That means the trend for now is down until btc can reverse the downtrend and start making higher lows and higher highs again.

I think the real question is where the bottom is? I don't think we've reached it yet, but I'm not sure if the price will go to what it was before the China run-up.

I appreciate that you try to educate us, but you will not convince anyone if you do not put your money where your mouth is. What about taking a bet on whether BTC will reach $500 or $900 first on any major exchange?

Wonderful!  We'll finally return to the norm.

No one can predict the exact bottom.  I won't even try.  But as with all bubbles that implode, they usually return to the flat part of the chart before the parabolic rise began.  Look at this chart of the nasdaq bubble as an example.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^IXIC#symbol=^ixic;range=19950103,20020903;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined; (http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^IXIC#symbol=^ixic;range=19950103,20020903;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;)

So looking at the btc chart, the parabolic rise started around $150-$200

I'm not trying to "convince" anyone of anything.  As someone who has experienced 2 bubbles firsthand (I worked at a dot com in San Francisco from 1998-2000 until it went bust, and I owned a condo in San Diego from 2004-2006, luckily I sold it bef the market crashed), I am just pointing out that its never diff this time.  All speculative bubbles play out the same.

As I said in another reply, I have no idea where the bottom will be and I won't even try to make a prediction.  I learned that the hard way while trading stocks.

Besides, the costs and fees of shorting btc are ridiculous.  Its not like stocks where you just borrow and short so easily.

Also, I read all these posts of how ppl can't get their btc's or money out of exchanges or websites etc.  Way too risky to trust my money with any of those sites, long or short.

It is a very normal behavior by now that BTC would drop 30% to 50% at least once every 4 months as much as it has became a normal behavior to raise double or triple every 3 to 4 months.

Lone Wolf, if you have no "skin in the game" (as the sayin goes), why do you think your opinion about BTC matters? You think because you worked at a .com and owned a condo that you're some kind of authority on "bubbles"?

If you ain't willing to play the game, don't waste people's time trying to call it.

You have an idea, but are not willing to take the risk to invest in it. What does that say about the idea? Did you correctly predict that the April bubble would be followed by a steady growth to the same level and beyond?

The idea that all speculative bubbles implode is not "my idea".  I don't claim to be that smart.  After getting burned in the .com bubble I read books like

A Short History of Financial Euphoria

Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds Financial Panics and Manias

and History of Greed: Financial Fraud from Tulip Mania to Bernie Madoff

FYI, I did not predict the April bubble b/c I was not watching btc back then.  I started watching it in early Nov. when they started talking about it every hour on CNBC.  That's when I knew that bubble was forming.  I call it the CNBC indicator.  And like I said, I don't make specific price predictions whether going up or down.  No one can call the exact top or bottom.

And I refuse to go long or short now b/c I don't trust these btc exchanges or sites.  I see so many posts about ppl having a hard time getting their dollars or btc's out of sites like Mt. Gox or other shady sites. 

Btc is too speculative and volatile for me to invest at the moment in time.  I also won't go short b/c when you short something your potential loss is infinity, whereas if you go long you can only lose what you put in.  I stopped trying to short things a long time ago.  You make a lot more money long vs short and its a helluva lot less stressful.

I never said in any of my posts that I was an "authority" on bubbles.  And I never said my opinion on btc matters.  If everyone ignores my posts then its no skin off my back (as the sayin goes).

I haven't called anything.  I don't make price predictions on btc, stocks, real estate prices etc.  That is above my pay grade.  And investing or trading your hard earned money is not a "game".  I don't take things like that lightly.

What about the "real" currency bubble? Are you not as concerned with the Federal Reserve issuing debt that will not be (cannot possibly be) paid? I would rather invest in BTC now before that one bubble pops, which in my opinion, will.

Do what you will with your hard-earned paper, and let others invest in what they may.

For the 20th time, I'm not trying to tell others to buy or sell, I'm not predicting prices, I'm not trying to convince anyone, scare anyone or influence anyone's decisions.  I am simply putting the info out there that every speculative bubble in human history has ended the same.  People can take it or leave it.

As far as what I think of the Fed and U.S. gov't debt, that is a whole nother can of worms that I have no interest in getting into.  Its way too long of a topic and off topic for this forum as far as I'm concerned.

Point taken. There are many independent factors that could abruptly change the btc market any given day, so it is a risky investment for sure, but it has come a long way in just a few years, and that makes it very interesting to follow. 

You understand that there was very specific news that caused the price to collapse right?  ::)

Agreed on all points.

There were 2 right?  China banning banks from dealing in btc's and both Baidu and China Telecom stopped accepting btc's.

Bitcoin recovered quite nicely today. Do you still believe your theory is correct?

Well of course there is a bubble and of course prices will eventually hit a low much lower than where it is now. That's easy to see just from the extreme growth that we've had recently.

Here's the thing though: that information is both obvious and useless unless you can tell when the bubble will pop and from what level of value and to what level. It is possible that $1200 was the peak, but there is also a fair chance that it will soar beyond $1500 or even beyond $2000 before it comes tumbling down. It is possible that it will ultimately bottom out at $600, $500, $400, $300... Who knows. And if you don't know, you can't make use of the information.

Last bubble in April I sold 6 hours before panic set in, but then I waited too long to buy back in and only made a 50% gain in BTC instead of a 400% gain that it would have been had I bought back in at just the right time.

We all would be rich if it was easy to predict Bitcoin price. As you told, noone knows the tommorow or next year Bitcoin price

I'm not saying that you're wrong, but your "argument" consists of anecdotes and a chart. I do not find that to be a very convincing, and I'm one of the few that actually believes there could be a crash (although I am starting to believe that this last dip was the "crash" that I was expecting, I just thought it would be a lot worse).

3 days does not a bubble burst make.  I actually didn't think the bubble would burst so soon after I came to my conclusion that it was in a bubble.  Remember I only started watching in early Nov.  I figured since the speculation is pushing up the stock market that it could also continue to push up btc.  I though it could easily reach $1500 and maybe even $2000.

Also one thing about bubbles is they can go on much longer than most think.  So as for shorting btc, a wise man once said "the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent".

So owlbear might be right it could hit $1500-2000 bef the bubble bursts or i could be right and this could be the beginning of the burst.  Only time will tell.

Maybe looking at Bitcoin fundamentals, not only price and speculation, could convince OP Bitcoin is not pyramid scheme and crash to 0 is unlikely to happen...

Those "anecdotes" are not just quaint little sayings that someone just made up.  They are conclusions of ppl who have been thrr previous bubbles going back to the railroad bubbles of the 1800's.  ppl who were professional investors smarter than you and i.

As for the chart of emotions, that is just a chart of emotions that bubble investors go thru.  It does not predict a bubble.  I didn't come to the conclusion that btc is in a bubble b/c of that chart.  I came to the conclusion by looking at the price chart of btc and the speed at which it rose in such a short time and the parabolic nature of that rise.

Also comparing the recent btc chart to charts of other bubble like the nasdaq bubble of 1996-2000.  As you can see here the nasdaq also went parabolic starting the week of oct. 25, 1999 thru mar. 6, 2000.  also a very fast rise.

bubbles usually start to implode after going parabolic and the greatest gains in a bubble are at the very end of said bubble.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^IXIC#symbol=^ixic;range=19950103,20020903;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined; (http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^IXIC#symbol=^ixic;range=19950103,20020903;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;)

So you never got any BTC, yet you are trying to bring terror upon the civilized bitcoin holders.
BTW, It's 900$ USD on MT.GOX at the moment.

if you look at the nasdaq chart, the implosion of that bubble last from mar. 2000 until sept. 2002.

oh dear god.  did you read all of my previous posts?  for the 50th time, i am not short btc b/c shorting something that is this volatile is impossible.  also i don't short things anymore after getting burned in the stock mkt.  i am much better at going long than shorting.  also see the above quote about mkts staying irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

also i'm not trying to "bring terror" to "civilized" btc holders (whatever that means).  any negative emotions you feel such as terror, anger or denial are coming from within you.

i simply came to the conclusion that btc is in a speculative bubble and this may be the beginning of the bubble bursting.  you don't need to be long or short btc to have an opinion on its price action and short term outlook.  i share that opinion on this message board.  that is what message boards are for right, sharing opinions on a given topic whether good or bad  if no one listens to or considers my opinion that is fine with me.

i came to the conclusion based on experiencing previous bubbles and learning from them.  also as a former stock trader i looked at the btc price charts and read the charts using what's called technical analysis.  not showing off here, google it, its a real thing that stock traders use.

as for btc being at $900, when a stock is making lower lows and lower highs than previously, then the uptrend has reversed and it is iin a downtrend.  btc made what's called a "double top" at $1240ish in late nov. and early dec.  it then made a lower low at $576 than the previous 2 lows of $840 and $870.  in order to reverse the downtrend it needs to put either a higher low than $576 or a higher high than $1242.

I got two cents:   Looks like btc is pushing 900 at this time.  I think Bubble does not mean the end of the world for btc, it basically means a Correction; and some people will get hurt in the short term and will not be able to weather the storm, lose faith, need money, or whatever and sell out in fear; all in all, a natural phenomenon.

Btc can end up 5,000 in a couple years, who knows.  The fact is a very tiny tiny percentage of the world uses btc, but if it continues on for a few years - and Ripple XRP may help that occur - and becomes accepted nearly as govt fiat money is, then it could go several hundred percent higher from this price --- but the risk isn't worth it because at this time there is more btc purchased at a lower price then those who bought at a high price and when they feel wealthy enough after such a successful speculation, they will dump which I think is happening.  What I'm saying is there must be many corrections before it stops bouncing and finds a fair price, then build from there and continue growing but probably more slowly, the ride to the Moon is over.
What about Ripples?  How does one buy Ripples for USD online?

wow, macncheese has posted the most rational comment i've seen on here.  a stock/commodity/currency going parabolic then crashing then bouncing around to its true value is called price discovery.  nothing goes to the moon and keeps going up forever.

never in any of my posts did i say btc was done forever and would go to zero and everyone would lose all their money.  i just said i am short term bearish and i felt that recent parabolic rise would crash.

i suggest you read these books.  you'll learn a lot about bubbles and manias.

A Short History of Financial Euphoria

Irrational Exuberance

The Great Crash 1929

Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

I've been reading the news and watching the developments of the progress of bitcoin and other alt coins.

I don't generally agree with Alan Greenspan's comments about bitcoin that it requires someone to back the currency. This is based upon the assumption that you are exposed to counterparty risk, which is possible to avoid with bitcoin.

The one thing I agree with Greenspan though is that how can anyone calculate the intrinsic value of bitcoin to say it is overvalued or undervalued? Is bitcoin in a speculative bubble? Of course. Like all bubbles it will correct and move to it's intrinsic value. The problem is no one knows what that is.

It doesn't mean that you can't make money out of it though.... Like all things, you have to manage your risk.

another rational and spot on comment!  no one person can say with certainty what btc (or any stock/commodity/currency) is worth.  it is worth what the market determines it is worth at any one time. 

and anyone who makes crazy predictions that btc is worth $100,000 (2 analysts at wedbush securities) or $1 million (hugh hendry at eclectica asset management) is either a fool, a liar or someone who is long and wants to pump up the item so they can realize a huge profit and dump their holdings on the latecomers.

I believe BTC will go back to 1000 plus in a few days, and then back down, thats how its been working lately

Seems very likely, I wouldnt buy now, too risky after last weekend drop to $600

It is very interesting to see the market flow up and down like this.  Also there are a lot of different exchanges, some of which the technology works and others of which it doesn’t.  It definitely a rollercoaster ride!

I look forward to the pop. I'll once again buy more coins when it hits low then sit on them and wait for it to rise again ;-)

that's the idea.  buy low, sell high.

The idea is to fool everyone into thinking low is high.

Here's a very good review on Amazon of the book A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith.  Only 128 pages and a good read for young people who think they have it all figured out and that this bubble is different from all the rest. 

"Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it" is not some quaint cliche that doesn't apply anymore.

Collective hysteria, June 19, 2013

By eqtbooks - See all my reviews

This review is from: A Short History of Financial Euphoria (Penguin business) (Paperback)

In 1954 the Canadian-born, Keynesian celebrity economist, serial author, academic enfant terrible and producer of timeless quotations - Ken Galbraith published his now classic The Great Crash of 1929. It's never been out of print since. A Short History of Financial Euphoria is a compendious later day sequel, with a broader scope as it tries to establish a framework for how to analyze financial bubbles. It is a short, witty book with superb, sometimes cynical language. It's a pleasure to read.

The general framework in itself is penned down in two initial chapters and in the concluding ending chapter, in total 30 pages. In between these chapters the author exemplifies with a chapter each on the Dutch 17th century tulip mania, the almost contemporary British South Sea bubble, the issuance of un-backed regional US fiat money at the time of the American revolution (which on the one hand paid the US military forces and won the country its independence but on the other hand lead to a long speculative period, inflation and the inevitable crash) and finally the stock market disasters of 1929 to 1932 and of October 1987.

Galbraith presents a number of factors underlying financial euphoria. First there is the combination of a person's private profit motive - a wish to get rich without effort - and group psychology that blocks all doubts. Further the "extreme brevity of financial memory" makes sure that we don't learn from previous bubbles (a new and risk seeking generation is always ready to enter the market) plus a naïve perceived association between wealth and intelligence. Finally, all financial bubbles include the creation of debt in some form. Financial innovation is seldom anything else than leverage. "The world of finance hails the invention of the wheel over and over again, often in a slightly more unstable version." Galbraith notes that the booms and busts to a large extent seem to have endogenous origins. Much like MIT's Andrew Lo would argue today.

The anatomy of the bubble is often predictable. At first there is some profitable opportunity that captures the mind of a group. Second, the price goes up. Third, this leads to a self-feeding positive loop as the increased prices draw further investors which creates further price increases. There are two groups that participate in the bubble. On the one hand those who are believers and are convinced that a new world of immediate wealth has been born, on the other hand those who think that the price rises are unsustainable but intend to ride the wave and exit when the crash approaches. The speculative period is prolonged by the fact that those participating psychologically must justify what has made them rich and has given them a feeling of being successful and intelligent persons. ANY DOUBTERS ARE PERCEIVED AS ATTACKING THEIR VERY PERSON. "Speculation buys up, in a very practical way, the intelligence of those involved."

Finally something, unimportant what, triggers a reversal. Those who thought that they could exit in time find the emergency exits overcrowded and those who believed in a new world turn into mourners. When the mass hysteria ends there will be new regulation that takes no notice of the fact that the speculative human psyche is ill suited for regulation. "Nothing is more remarkable than this: in the aftermath of speculation, the reality will be all but ignored." Galbraith is of the opinion that it isn't possible to avoid speculative bubbles by means of regulation. The only thing that helps is the understanding of the mass hysteria that creates them. This however, will not be the media's, the public's and the regulator's view. Since so many has participated in the mania it's much easier to search for scapegoats than to admit one's own stupidity.

It's a great shame that the orthodoxy of neoclassical economics for such a long time excluded psychology from mainstream financial thought. Galbraith, as Hyman Minsky, draws extensively on John Maynard Keynes concept of "animal spirits" when he views financial markets. This might be a short book but it's up there with Gustave LeBon's The Crowd when it comes to best picturing the madness of mobs.

What exactly is your interest in this forum? Advertising products, spreading misinformation, or something even wilier?

This.

'Rigged Money' by Lee Munson

advertising products???  in case you didn't notice i didn't write that book.

what misinformation have i spread?  please enlighten me.

this is a forum to talk about btc right ?  i can have an opinion on btc can i not?  last time i checked its a free country and we have freedom of speech.

"ANY DOUBTERS ARE PERCEIVED AS ATTACKING THEIR VERY PERSON."  still don't get it huh?

Was the Internet a bubble? Possibly in the beginning, yet today's market value of all Internet-related assets is higher than ever.

the internet wasn't a bubble.  that's impossible, it can't be traded for a profit/loss.  internet *stocks* were a HUGE bubble in 1997-2000.

how old were you during that time?

If you're referring to the Dot-com bubble, it was a bubble:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

You can't compare current market fundamentals and apply it to market prices at the time when the bubble burst. At the time the bubble burst the fundamentals did not support the market valuations.

I cannot tell which affiliations you have with the publisher of the book, nor with the agenda it represents. Your theory has been unable to predict the future in cryptocurrencies so far (including the recent correction to $950); ergo, is it not unreasonable to describe it as misinformative. Your attempt to change topic to personal rights does not strengthen your thesis.

I agree with the idea that many of the current Bitcoin-related ventures will not make it to the future. However, I take the opportunity to ignore the personal aspect of this discussion.

No, the Internet was never a bubble. Related companies were overvalued at the time, yes, but not the concept of the Internet. Cryptocurrencies constitute another breakthrough in technology, but many of the related ventures may as well go bankrupt.

ahaha! "I cannot tell which affiliations you have with the publisher of the book" you are a hoot!  yes, b/c i'm going to make SO MUCH money off a book that none of the young ppl like you (who think this time is different from every other time in history) think is worth reading and therefore will never buy or download off bittorrent.  and books are such a good moneymaker these days!

besides i'm simply a working joe who used to trade stocks and dabbles in technical analysis.

"the agenda it represents" omg.  its a historical book that was written in 1954.  too bad b/c galbraith can't profit off showing that every bubble in history has burst.  b/c he's DEAD.

you can take off your tinfoil hat now.  don't worry i'm not a part of the great conspiracy by the powers that be to bring down btc.

here we go again, its not my theory.  i didn't make any prediction of the future of cryptocurrencies.  i simply expect the speculative bubble that btc is currently in to burst.  its an opinion.  take it or leave it.  

don't take yourself so seriously.  you'll live longer.

this is going to be my new sig

"ANY DOUBTERS ARE PERCEIVED BY THE TRUE BELIEVERS AS ATTACKING THEIR VERY PERSON."

First of all, Bitcoin is not a bubble, it's like TVs, cell phones, the internet or Facebook, it's a disruptive technology that responds to a need.
What we are experiencing is called exponential growth.

Secondly and a bit off topic, I don't see why Lone Wolf's advice should be discarded because he does not own any BTCs.
I agree with all those who think that Bitcoin is a risky investment and that's why I understand Lone Wolf's choice.

This post for example, is completely ridiculous:

Anyway, maybe we are simply not talking about bubbles at the same scale.
Of course Bitcoin is only 5 years old and we will see tons of bubbles on the way to the moon.
But right now we just kinda took off. And the whole Bitcoin thing is not a bubble, it's there to stay.
I'm not delusional though, there is always an end and it could arrive in a hundred years as well as tomorrow.
But it won't be because "it's a bubble". There will be a reason, like a ban or a technical issue.

just to clarify i don't think btc *itself* is a bubble.  i said its price or value is currently in a speculative bubble.  big difference.

I think the waves being completes a signature to prices above $10k. Hundreds of
dollars of movement then will be ok and will provide plenty if liquidity to end waves... larger crashes may be 20% and next up $100k depending on news.

dont think so.

great for my first post here...

Two factors
1) Bitcoins although are being mined, are finite, therefore the price will go high as is more and more difficult to mine, and as more people start to use it.

2) Being part of a highly (HIGHLY) controlled economy (I can only have the equivalent to 400 USD a year for internet and if I travel as much as 2000$ anything else is illegal), bitcoins for a lt of people that have to fight with these controlled economies see the bitcoins as a form of liberation.

Relating to the second point, the last "crash", that can be somehow related with countries like China saying no to bitcoin as it means to loss part of the control over their finances (many restrictive governments will do the same), will only encourage people to use it, as long as you can access the internet, now you will not only have some freedom about the knowledge you acquire and the opinions you express (something that as I say can only be expressed in the somewhat anonymity of the web) but you are now able to use this as an economic liberation.

Maybe the boom of news about bitcoins make it go faster in its value increase, but, that value is in no way artificially going up, it will continue to go up, and ironically this countries that want to execrate it and prohibit it are the big responsible of its grown.

The only true danger to bitcoins is the security, not only in the crypto currency itself, that for a good deal of years seems secure, but the security of wallets, as much of the online wallet services and others where you have your btc are not as safe as respectable bank, I strongly believe that this should be a priority, and hope its like that since the input.io downfall

BTW I live in Venezuela

For now I think Bitcoin will continue to rise and possibly reach $1500 by late January due to the massive amounts of
mainstream media attention (both good and bad). After that I think there will be a big drop down to settle around $300 for a few months.

Ultimately I would expect Bitcoin to reach $10,000 in the future whenever it becomes much easier to purchase them with debit / credit cards and as it becomes stabler more and more online retailers will start accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment

I really don't think so. Not for a long while anyway.

   Panic-mongers always will be :D

Then I totally agree with you.
But right now the buying power is still strong.

Hey OP the link to the chart is not working anymore.
Can you put up an alternative link?

https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/410326529634103296/photo/1 (https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/410326529634103296/photo/1)

draw your own conclusions

Already above $900, I see no signs of crash for this bubble, there may be another correction but I believe in 2014, around $1000 will be fair price without possibility to cash much more, like price around $2000 with possible cash to $900

bull trap just about to complete. sell off incoming!!! :-*

Crash?
200USD/BTC is good enough. But currently is much more :-)
Regards

When it gets back to $2 I'll call it a crash.

Haha, it seems every single moment another person spreading FUD pops up. Please stop trying to scare everyone else, we haven't crashed and remained at that level since the initial rise from ~$150,an there really isn't anything to suggest we're going to see a crash soon.

I don't think there will be any crash in the future, this week due to the China restriction, the btc went down to 500, look at the price now, its 900...

People who think bitcoin has no value just missed the whole thing, missed that bitcoin is a protocol and a network infrastructure. The protocol is a 1 billion genius idea, like email, or www. The network infrastructure is much cheaper than the actual branded financial networks. Generally people who is freaking out, even in academic circles, are those who even can't explain how blockchains works. :D

 

I am not 100% sure. Since BitcoinBTC is not hardly correlated to any other index. Its quite vulnerable to "news sentiment" and speculation.

up 1000% then crash 50%; then 1000%......fine to me :)

But behaves a little like gold :-)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/12/05/bank-of-america-analysts-say-bitcoins-value-is-1300/

If it gets ever gets to $2, i'm buying in large! :P

It's not a speculative bubble. The only thing capable of damaging bitcoin's value is government laws and network flaws (I doubt the latter will happen). Otherwise it will only go up simply because they are limited. Bitcoins are pretty much not very well known at all and they are already almost 1000 dollars per 1 bitcoin... think about that.

It's not a crash until the price drops by at least 50% compared to the peak (the peak is currently about $1250) and we enter a long-term bear market. Of course by Bitcoin standards anything longer than a few weeks is long-term. It is possible that we are on our way into that bear market now but that remains to be seen.

I bought back in at $720 at a 2% profit in BTC since the bubble began. I have since sold 10% of my BTC and am holding on to the remaining 90%. It's not easy to decide whether to sell more now or to wait.

I suspect that is what the OP hope ultimatly is...

To get coins on the cheep.

If you don't have any Bitcoins, and you've never owned them, why do you care and why would you even bother making this topic?

Yes, this is obvious, hardly anyone I know heard about Bitcoin yet. But a lot need to be improved to make buy and sell of Bitcoins much easier for average person first

This will be about the 3rd "crash" then.

look at the chart:
June 2011 - raising to 30+$ and crashing to ~5$

April 2013 - raising to 250+$ and crashing to ~50$

Dec 2013 - raising to 1200+$ and crashing to ~ 600$
yet, maybe a little more, but anyway...
my further prediction will be:

somewhere in 2014:
raising to ~6000$ and crashing to ~1000$

somewhere in 2015 or earlier:
raising to ~30000$ and crashing to ~5000$

and so on... up to about half a million, what's it's real wearth...

I welcome your decision to smear the involved participants rather than their interests, not everyone is capable of accepting defeat (even with an obscured white flag). Now that your mission is forsaken, you should go and have some fun, get a bitcoin and see what you can do with it. Of course, your apparent lack of financial muscles makes the endeavour more difficult to realize, but you could still try, you will not regret it.

So , how did things turned up two days after your predicament?
Should I also write in Bold? That the bubble didn't pop?

Any new prediction?
How do you see how things have evolved and how will they in the future?

This is the problem with using the "coin" or "currency" metaphor with bitcoin.  People start thinking of it like a collectible or a tulip or some tangible thing.  Bitcoin will always have value, because of it's UTILITY.  It's a technology that is globally useful.  The speculation is irrelevant in the long term, it's just proving that the tech can handle it.

The reaction of China to limit activity with crypto currencies is just another setback for bitcoin, there is probably some way to go before a major correction occurs, bitcoin is more vulnerable to software flows than governement policies.

Hi

Does anyone anticipate it will go down to 500 or 600 in the next few days.

If it gets to $2 for a good reason you might still not want to buy.
But I don't see it ever going bellow $100 even for a really bad news. Too many people will simply see it as an opportunity to get cheap coins.

WOW, this topic really helps me on catching up BTC status :o

If there is a bad news, yes, definitely (imo, the market is recovering but remains fragile).
If not, then I don't see any reason why.

it will not happen

Is it possible that it can drop to around like on Monday? 700 or so.

Well, if you compare with April's correction, and if you believe the same thing will happen, then we could be at $800 by Friday.
I took the risk and sold at $960, I intend to buy back at $800 (and below).

Edit: looks like we already made it...

bump.  compare your emotions to the chart at this time.  then draw your own conclusions.

https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/410326529634103296/photo/1 (https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/410326529634103296/photo/1)

Hmm that's interesting, but only time will show us what's up, personally I don't think its a big deal.

Of course every bubble bursts. But BTC has already made 3 complete bubbles. The biggest catalyst for BTC will be another crysis and fund confiscation. As BTC is compared to gold, when stock market crashes BTC will skyrocket even without China. And that QE will stop one day and interest rates will rise causing stock market to crash is very probable to happen during next 5 years. I think the best place to buy will be around $250 but current $500 is not a bad place either for long term holders which are late to the party

Late adopter here (bought in at 900+)

Like some other posts mention, these swings are very normal and have happened before. Gotta admit though, it takes a little getting used to.

Hold..its the end of the year, profit booking and festive gifting affect all markets, At least, that's what one may keep telling themselves to not panic sell.

Hold...this ship isn't sinking yet.

You really haven't said anything with your post. You've just added more noise to the space, without much sound reasoning. Tell us something profound and intuitive, something no one else has said yet. Maybe you might have more support if you do so next time.

Not trying to sound adversarial. If you have an apt macro view that applies to the micro actions of buyers and sellers, then your post will be valuable and help a lot of people either make money, or not lose it. But this post is nothing more than "China said this" and "Bitcoin has no real value because of that." If that's all that's been put up, then these arguments have been addressed before.

when people was buying tullips for 100000 times the intrinsic value i am sure they didn't though it was a bouble, the intrinsic value of bitcoin is likely to be belove $10, the rest is pure speculation similar to the art overprices.

It's still too early to tell a crash. And what, this happened a couple of times throughout bitcoin's lifespan? When the prices plummet, they slowly rose back up. Pure speculation.

It certainly does not look like a crash has begun. The decline appears to have been a one-time correction.

Yes，We'll finally return to the norm.

Can't take anybody who was burned in the dotcom bubble seriously.  You were a standard idiot then.  You can't be a genius now. 

Anyway, currencies do not operate like stocks.  Even if they did, obvious shorts like Tesla and FB have blown away your bubble theory.  You are naive to how young currencies behave, most of us are, and you have no basis to make a call. 

Bubbles occur when too much money is chasing too few assets, causing both good assets and bad assets to appreciate excessively beyond their fundamentals to an unsustainable level.

My Opinion:  "BitCoin can not play on both sides of the railroad tracks.  BitCoin is a singular asset and can not be devalued through a monatary debt structure.  Lending on BitCoin simply can not work in this fashion.  To few coins ensures its strength.  You either have them or you do not.  A clear line between fiat currency and BitCoin needs to be drawn.  View BitCoin for what it is, it is simply a BitCoin.  Nothing more nothing less.  In this juncture most see the BitCoin purchase power as fiat currency.  In the beginning this is needed, but down the line the transformation needs to occur and then fiat currency will no longer matter".

Once this occurs the term Bubble will be dead.  Deflation will ensure this.

Lol at op and his foil hat  ;)

I made so much money off this crash and now it is going back slowly where it should be, one step closer to my dream!

Sorry, that page doesn’t exist!

I think it might crrash, but when so much people with over 1000 BTC want to sell it, because almost would much happy with 800k $ then 1k BTC

I consider the first bubble popped after it hit 1200$ a while ago. This really marked a very high bar for the future, but it has also shown that bitcoin is far beyond it's original value of under 100USD...

Over Xmas and NewYear we hung around 700$ish and that seemed to be both due to lower trades but also has proven to be a little supporting base that has been established there.

It certainly ain't over yet - and in my opinion, bitcoins are really going to leave a permanent impression on us as well as the financial markets.

Just my 5 cents
Cheers
Florian

LOL, how you come to true intrinsic value of bitcoin about $10 ?  :D

You sell when that negative coworker/family member/friend who vowed to never buy bitcoin because its "stupid" and in "thin air" buys. Or when your grandma buys.

Hi,

Crashes in the crytpo market have and will occur. The long-term value of crypto currencies is unknown but I am pretty sure that they are here to stay. It's all about picking the good ones with a high adoption rate and a growing following. In my opinion, the majority of the altcoins will disappear in time....they are pure speculation with minimal added value. I  think that btc and ltc are going to be a successful. 

This is actually quite convenient. You can save some transaction costs and third party trust problems by directly selling to your grandma.

we did not crash hehe

Btc isn't gonna crash.. Permanently...

You have to sell when you dont need to sell anymore - so you spend your Bitcoins instead

This is my mandatory first post, by the way.

I don't know whether or not bitcoin is in a bubble.   But I have a vested interest in that not being the case, and I cast my bets in anticipation of what I think the future value will be.  Right now, I think it will continue to increase in value, and I have assets on the line to give weight to my opinion.

There is one, pretty big reason that I think it will succeed in the long run.  Cryptocurrency is the most trustless form of non-commodity money that has ever been created.  It requires no trust in government institutions or other authority figures, and this is a powerful idea.  And right now, due to network effects and first-mover advantage, bitcoin is likely to continue to appreciate in value while other altcoins either follow its lead or get lost in the dust.

If I'm wrong, well then, I guess I'm wrong, and I'll suffer for it.

I am a newbie but I was under the impression that this bubble was nothing more than a pump and dump by the early power players? It was enough to get my attention and when prices started coming down I decided to buy in. I thought it was just natural market forces but really now I think it's all manipulation. Either way I think it was enough to secure bitcoin's permanence. Now we just need to diffuse the wealth and power so we aren't all forced to live in some kind of dystopia ruled by one megalomaniac.

tulips bubbled when people realised they could grow their own
this is not the same with BTC .. why do people keep comparing the two

We are still in down going trendline, but not for long. 7+ days before potential bottom.

BTCI like turtles.