Bitcoin Forum

Looks to me like we have the start of a bear trend forming on the longer term 4 hour chart.

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6281/fjc2.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/543/fjc2.png/)

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This would seem reasonable to me, as Bitcoin has shot up very very fast, we have had a double top, and now a strong correction from a recovery that fell well short of the top, and a bounce from that which looks to be falling well short of the recovery target of around $980 on Bitstamp.

Perhaps we are entering another 'traders market' for the next few months, as seen post April 2013?

Agreed.
And the today's recent selloff broke the support provided by 2-, 5-, 10- and 14-day EMAs again.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Me4SMk5B/

Yup, it is looking very weak for bitcoin right now.

It never made sense to me that it rose back up to $1000 so fast. It should really be sub-500.

This recent recovery was a very weak low volume recovery.

Too many people are cashing out and they do it slowly to make sure the exchanges don't rob their bitcoins. There is no way that the demand for $1000 bitcoins is there to cash out all these people.

Think about it $1000 bitcoins, crazy.

Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now?  I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream.  Now that seems cheap.  The same thing will happen to $1000. 

I think more along the lines off:

"Perhaps if the average price of Bitcoins being held in wallets is less than $100, then now that the surge of buying power has clearly subsided, it is going to become more and more clear to holders of BTC that now is the time to cash out."

This is not the end of Bitcoin, far from it, but definitely looks to me like a period of consolidation at best, and bear trending at worst. Perhaps the low (currently $546) is actually not yet in?

I have been bearish since the start of this month. Buying in the crashes, of course; but maybe selling a bit too quickly. Catching the top and bottom is always much tougher than spotting trends.

Just because something has happened earlier doesn't mean it will keep happening.

I do believe we will break the current ATH, but not as soon as most hear think it would be. There is also that doom-and-gloom scenario predicted by EWT worshippers (which I am quite skeptical about, more out of greed than anything, tbh).

We are in a bear market. The volume above 1000 was thin. Lots of people are sitting on paper profits. Bulls at this current level will learn the same lesson as the bulls did in the previous two crashes. I don´t believe that 546 was the low. Sorry, but greed is not selling to protect profits, it is sitting on massive profits and being greedy for more.

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Tax? January?

My tax year runs from April to April m8.

I am not sure when the Chinese (by far the main market for Btc these days) pay their taxes either.

that´s only iin the uk m8.... most other counties tax years go from jan till dec.

Yeah, I can only speculate from the US side, where the tax year runs Jan to Dec. The USD volume in BTC is still about 50%, combined Gox and Bitstamp. I'd say that's pretty equal with the Chinese, even though BTCChina has the single largest exchange.

m8, folks from all across the world are buying and selling BTC in US dollars because that is the currency of the main exchanges, not because we all have to pay taxes to the US government.

Ah, good point. :)

You, Sir, are violating a very important rule on this forum  ;D

http://s30.postimg.org/61sqwg8pd/Weak_BTC.jpg

You will learn that after "crash", you have at least same amount of Bitcoin if no more and not only half. :-)

Sell now, buy back in at inevitably lower prices like I am doing.

Hope that helps clear things up for you.

Not one China chart? Cool analysis bros.

Hooray for the 'buy in at any price crowd'.

Afterall, there has got to be someone to buy out our bad bets.

Now if you don't mind, I will place you on ignore. you haven't insulted me or anything like that, its just that I figure that if I can slowly block out all the brain damage merchants polluting this place, this forum section might just be a place where one can glean insight and good advice.

I find it best to block everyone that doesn't share my world view, lest it hurts my fragile ego ...

Pot, meet kettle.

I guess it really depends where you live.

In Germany Bitcoin profits are tax free after one year and I do cash out via Bitcoin.de, where people send the money directly to my bank account....

So basically after the crash you sit on a pile of Fiat (which you need at some stage anyway for food, rent, gas....) and the same amount of bitcoins, maybe more. Don´t see anything wrong with that. No train to be missed at these prices...
Even if it is less Bitcoins, I would not really care...

I always wondered how do you prove to German tax authorities that you've hold your BTC for one year??

i put in a strong wall at $700.  lets see if it gets filled.

Easy, just show them your transaction history. Of course you need to download and save it once in a while

Mate, I got a family of 5 to feed, no time for ideological feelings. If I want to believe I go to church... I would guess most people are here for the same reason.

No ma'am, that is hardly why.

I certainly do understand you !

No, no trouble to feed them, but I want to work less, to spend more time with them. Not possible with a second job. Let´s say I have been speculating in 2011 and not afterwards...

I'm putting it at 800.

The same to you mate ! Let´s see how it is going to turn out....

don't compare it  to april because  there are some very important differences
- lack of early adopters
-  much lower fold in respect to floor ( 10 -> 266, 100 -> 1300 )
- and what most important China effect
Did  anyone here  noticed a huge volume in general  when  you add all exchanges. I can risk statement that we are "in summer" now when you look at this factor.
Changes are more rapid, back then a crash  needed 6 months  to unload. Now  the same  job is done within  days.
And it wasn't really  comparable  crash in magnitude and overall reception.
In my opinion someone is  simply  probing how strong  support is  and  its why  we are  falling. but  believe me or not sentiment is  still positive and  we  have  room to  go  up.
Only  thing I fear  at this point  is some formal preventive action against bitcoin ecosystem, with  this  exception  I am  bullish  as  never

I have my lowest buys at $650 since I seriously doubt we get anywhere lower than that. More like some wide swings in the 700-1200 region until an ATH is made. Speculation paradise!

+1
I can see a lot of positive reactions to btc. People just sell around $1000 because it seems a lot for an electronic coin. It's going to take some time before they get used to price staying above $800 and then we'll go up again.

That's if it stays above $800. Looks weak and low volume. 

Yup....looking weak. If the price is going to go shooting in any direction any time soon, then that direction certainly won't be ^UP^

Here is my buy in ladder:

Order type   Date and time   BTC amount   Bitcoin price   Order value   Order status   
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   4.00000000   $580.00   $2,320.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   5.00000000   $540.00   $2,700.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   6.00000000   $500.00   $3,000.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   6.00000000   $480.00   $2,880.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:25 p.m.   4.50000000   $440.00   $1,980.00   Open   Cancel

Just hope it doesn't go too much lower than the $400....perhaps I will take out the $580 and put in a $400 tranche....hrmmm?

My last buy in was pretty good...lowest buy in tranche was at $600, it went to $545. Will see how this one goes. I don't expect to get it imminently, but then I never expected to get my last one so soon (sold 75% of what I bought), but I ended up getting it basically the following day....was the weekend though.....Friday evening, nobody watching, not new money getting into exchanges..etc.

It's not a typical stock. If the Greek/Cyprian crysis hits another country or a big company enters the market we might have an instant rally. Right now we are slowing down because, since last weekend, there was no spark to ignite the fuel. The only thing you can be quite sure with BTC is that it's going up in the long run, so this spark will eventually come. If it's soon then the price won't fall much, if not we might even see that 500 you're waiting for ;)

This.  This is the advice I followed when people said the same thing in early June 2011.





Haha, jk.

Maybe we'll go that way?
https://i.imgur.com/AJuhbWpl.png (http://imgur.com/AJuhbWp)

What's the difference between the bubble in 2011 and now?

Because I fear repeating the 2011 bubble, I sold 35% of my Bitcoins.

This convinces me that it can indeed repeat 2011 - not enough fear - true fear would mean 100% bitcoins sold.

I don't just fear a lower low (then $545), I am expecting it and betting on it.

I have sold 75% of my Bitcoins, mind you, being a Johnny come lately to the BTC speculation game, that isn't a whole lot of coins (22 to be precise and I am keeping just 6). In the fullness of time, I am one of those who believe that Bitcoin can go right to $10K and beyond, but in the near term, I think we will see the $300s before we see the $1000s again.