Bitcoin Forum

It looks like bitcoin is trying to resume its recovery. It has broken through it's down-trendline, and with some umph, which is a great sign. It still has some hurdles to overcome, but it's late, NY is shut down, and Asia is just beginning to stir. So fingers crossed, it will resume it's trend.

News is positive with more investment talk, and bitcoin as a currency. So much so that the physical bitcoin vendor has been shut down in the United States (a little silly, but goes to show it's visible to more than a few enthusiasts.) These are all positive signs for the future.

Stay safe, control your risk, and the weekend is near   :  )

cj

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/Bitcoin121213.png

Good analysis! I enjoyed reading and studying it.

Nice work but a bit confused though. You rightly say that technical indicators are basically down so bots / traders are basically in sell mode so the price is likely to go down further yet. Yet your first sentence is "bitcoin is trying to resume its recovery".

How do you reconcile the two statements?

Thanks for all the compliments!

Unfortunately the Confluence (that confusing part) took over, and fizzled the attempted recovery.

Basically, Confluence is a measure of tons of technical indicators. These are the things technical traders like to watch. So no matter what technical traders are watching, when the majority of those indicators are pointing down, that means there are lots of traders who are thinking down.

So when most of traders are looking at screens saying "down", that's definite pressure on bitcoin.

That's why it's important to be aware of what's going on around you before you take a trade, or make an investment. Lack of situational awareness is always a killer.

: )

cj

Yeah I understand what confluence is and how traders watch technical indicators. My question was really how the "attempted recovery" was fitting into that scenario. If the technicals are mixed or down, surely the price is looking down rather than up? Not trying to split hairs here, just gain an understanding of the situation as you saw it. I suppose the question boils down to "what were the signs of an attempted recovery" you saw?

@empoweoqwj -- I see what you're saying.

Bitcoin was adhering to it's downtrendline. Then it broke above it with umph. Not just crawled above it, there was strong buying pushing it through it's downtrendline. That was a sign of attempting to recover. I had messaged our traders earlier that day to look for a break "with umph". And bitcoin did it = attempted recovery.

[Sorry I didn't make that clearer in my original post.]

But then the overwriting caution that confluence was negative. So despite the attempting recovery, be cautious.

So I got a signal that happened along with the trendline break. Because it happened with the trendline break, I took it. But with confluence being negative, I didn't expect it to go far (hence the caution.) So I took a quick profit off it (about $40), instead of letting it ride.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/30mtrade.png

I enjoy your TrueTrend Analytics and note that breaks above and below on short term charts often indicate overbought and oversold conditions. Happy to see the price violated that down trend line but as someone who bought to hold I'm prepared for a few months consolidation of price in the triple digits based on US$.

How many traders "follow" you? Do you publish a track record of trades you have recommended?

I ask because I'm looking to do some trading myself but I'm not experienced enough to do it all myself. I need some kind of mentor. But someone that actually makes bitcoins for clients, not just claims he knows how to read charts. There are plenty of them to go around  ;)

@Empoweoqwj, I apologize, but I'm not the mentoring sort. Way, way too busy. Probably unhealthily so, but I'm always happy to answer any questions you might have.

Seriously, just ask   :  )

cj

Sorry not to be clear. By mentoring, I didn't mean one-on-one, I just meant how do I join your group of traders that you "mentor"?