Bitcoin Forum

Following news of complete RMB to Btc ban in china, it looks like btcs are now stabilising around RMB 2,800.

IMHO, the spec/hoarders that made up 75% of Btc china market has mostly exited.

Please comment with your insights.

Bitstamp is pretty close to breaking 500, once that happens prepare for a dip to below 260....

also all the people with coins on btcchina will be transferring to other exchanges to cash out at higher prices.... so it is looking bad for awhile.

I think your post is way, way too premature.  It takes the market time to digest big news like this.  The same thing happened for other negative China press.  That drop you saw a few hours ago were the lucky ones cashing out because they had easy access to their stash.  There will likely be several waves of sell-offs over the next few days.  I think this will make Bitcoin stronger in the long term, however.  Just guessing here .. because that's all we can do .. $300-400 is a reasonable place to start buying heavy.  Until the next wave of bad news  :P

Efficient bitcoin markets seem to be stabilising already. The speculators/hoarders may have been flushed out.

oh STFU! Seriously.

People around here are losing enough money already.

I see three green candles so in my book it looks like an uptrend is coming, hope it pulls through.

I want to shout this again "TO DA MOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" :D

Yeah, it may bounce a little higher....for now, but it will be temporary.

China is clearly winding up any open dealing of Bitcoins. BTC China was the last time I checked responsible for 44% of the entire Bitcoin trade volume. There are still lots of Bitcoins in China and these people need to cash out.

Nothing could be more clear regarding Bitcoins near term future and could well be remembered as a near death experience.

"TO DA FKN BASEMENT!!!!!!!!" :D

The bounce to 600 dollar is hilarious :D How people can seriously believe that we should only be down about 100dollar from last night after this is beyond me. Just to remind people..more than half the market is gone! Wake up and face reality.

China exchanges had such high trading volume only becasue fee was 0% there

No need to be rude about it. With all your negativity, people would surely feel even more negative. Seriously, I really think the hoarders are flushed out.

I honestly can't see why Btc china cannot restart in HK or Macau? Anybody want to chime in with some inside info?

Meh, I'd say the Chinese saw a small opening before the PRC Government would step in and decided to grab as many as they could. I had my suspicions early on that something like this would happen, to be honest.

china people aren't retarded
even if their country ban bitcoin completely they will not sell 3 millions of BTC in one go. The most probable scenario is that their bitcoin will slowly flow back to east, selling pressure will be gradual from this direction.
Completely different metter  will be impact of such news on the market, this may be really devastating it will undermine trust of potential investors and  effectively pin down price for long months. Personally I just  hope that  there will be no complete ban  but only bunch of restrictions

All the way down from $1000, it has appeared patently obvious to me that this sucker was going down. And this was before the China issue emerged as serious as it has turned out to be.

Yet all the way down, I have had to tolerate fools telling me and everyone else sh1t like:

$900 OMG CHEAP COINS BUY BUY BUY....

DONT COME CRYING TO ME WHEN U ARE BUYING BACK IN AT $1500!

$850 is time to buy, not to sell! This is nothing to do with China, this is to do with Fed taperin fears.

$800. Bitcoin has flushed out da weak hands, and will stabilise around here etc etc

$750. Hope ya all picked up em cheap coins and are ready for the ride up

Indeed, I am wondering whether the level of 'optimism' in the face of common sense has influenced my buy-in decisions. Until yesterday, I was buying in between $400 - $500, but I thought better of it thinking it may not sink that low all at once, and changed this to $500 - $560. I sold at $490. I have to take responsibility for any decisions that I take, but I also understand the human mind, no matter what mind it is, is subconsciously open to the power of persuasion. This is why things kitsch fast food advertisements or tacky car adverts work.

Now, we have a situation where China has made clear Bitcoin trading will be completely wound up within their borders by the end of Jan 2014. BTC China accounted for 44% of total Bitcoin trading. I would say the writing is on the fkn wall, and in light of the sheer remaining volume of yet more unfathomable 'optimism in the face of common sense', I see myself as carrying out a public duty, outright abusing people who are still trying to tell people, that Bitcoin going 2 da moon!


and it might do.....one day....but right now, Bitcoin divin in2 da cesspit!

Mat the Cat is, without a doubt, one of the most eloquent expounders on this forum, despite some of the vulgarities.

What we are witnessing right now is panic buying in response to panic selling.

Despite all indications of severe instability, hundreds of thousands of coins are being bought on the grounds that they are "cheap coins" and that when the price goes "to da moon," bitcoin holders will be rich.

It all sounds very well...but I fear this is the beginning of our woes and if China unloads all of its bitcoins, the price will drop below $100.00.

This, of course, assumes no new bad news out of the EU, which may place bank restrictions to exchanges and bitcoins. Then the price will be in double digits.

You are both fairly new here so it's understandable. There is a hardcore number of people here who are so utterly brainwashed that any drop is ALWAYS met with shouts of CHEAP COINS.Your mistake is believing these fuckwits know what they are talking about, they don't.

Unfortunately MatTheCat has gone full-retard and turned into the exact opposite of these fuckwits and he is now ironically doing the EXACT SAME THING.

The truth is somewhere in the middle. There is nothing to be gained by either of these two extremes.

I feel your pain brother but we don't have to be overly pessimistic about china because trading in china will probably still occur via Macau or HK.

One question:  How did China get back to $500?

I'll answer your question with a question: Why did it ever get so low to begin with?

So you answer a question that makes people think with one that's obvious to everyone?  What's the point of that?

I think at this point, anyone who didn't panic sell on BTC China has a nice opportunity to arbitrage.  They are likely buying coins in China, with whatever RMB they have left on the site, and bringing it over to other exchanges.  Also, others may be depositing BTC onto the exchange assuming that the price will tank.  By having an RMB balance, you could buy coins later @ a very discounted rate.

It's not obvious to everyone, it's not obvious at all. Bitcoin will become more scarce within the country, it's still not outright banned, and it can still be used for remittances very easily. Who wants to sell it $200 cheaper than other exchanges? Idiots, that's who.

This is a good point. People are starting to realise they don't have to necessarily convert to RMB. We should expect to see arb opportunities narrow.

Ok..I have checked your post history.....

Your last posts before today were 22nd June 2013, so you can't have been one of those who have been 'lol-ing' me all the way down from $1000, when I first stated that I was selling at a loss because I believed the market was going lower....much lower.

Last brutal correction, I caught sweetly. This one, I badly mistimed.

I am pissed off, and will reassess my position to Bitcoin when my mood straightens out. That Stochastic indicator in the image I posted however, is something I have had my eye on for a long time, back 24 hours even, when everything was still running to plan, my plan, of much lower prices to come, with me taking advantage of the bounces. That long term RSI is pointed vetically towards the floor. Sure it might pick up, but in light of everything that is surrounding Bitcoin at the moment; if there was ever a time that it was destined to hit the floor, which it has done many times before and with exceptional rigour right after a boom/bust, then that time lies straight ahead.

If it doesn't come to pass, I miss out on a little bit of upside and re-enter market at stabilisation point (lets face it, btc aint going 2 da moon again for quite some time). If it does come to pass, I miss out on a whole lot of downside and get presented with much sweeter buy-in opportunities.

I had 14000rmb on btc china (wish I'd had more) - I bought some bitcoins.
Why do I need to sell them suddenly?
Bitcoins are a rare commodity now in China - Chinese people are excluded from a world wide phenomenon.
My Bitcoins are worth more now in China than they are in the rest of the world.
If anyone wants them then they will need to pay a premium (off exchange obviously)

Yes, I can see Argentina scenario playing out in china. Btc will eventually trade at a premium compared to ROW.

In btc world, there is always a panic buying after a panic selling

Just one problem with that.

U can't spend em in China. U soon won't be able to exchange them for money in China. Which means that if you want to 'cash out', you will have to do so on a foreign exchange. Great, if you don't live in China, not so great if you do, as I hear that China is not an easy economy for the average Joe to get fiat in and out off.

Why can't I spend them?
'these carrots look lovely - will you accept bitcoin? - yes I will'
easy

(I do live in China)

My gut is, China is f*cking with everyone and purposely driving the price down so that day-traders and speculators get out, so that they can turn around and scoop up BTC for ridiculous low amounts and then drive the price back up.

I don't participate that much but I do read this forum on a regular basis.

And nothing is black and white. Selling out at $1000 was a great move. I didn't go with my first instinct and I waited and I ended up getting out around $900.

You do realize that China is the #1 foreign country that is buying up land left and right in countries like the US and all over Europe, yes?

Mr. Wong wants to buy a house in Seattle.
Buy BTC in China for $300k. Transfer BTC to US. Convert in US. Buy house.

BIT-ZILLA!!!!!

You mean China exchange or China government ?

Chinese Govt + Banks + Big Business.

Don't trust the Chinese. They aren't stupid. They are great at deception and manipulation.

“Deception is an integral element of Chinese strategic culture”

Agree, the naivety on this forum is disturbing. If all participants in the global economy are working towards peace and harmony for the greater good then nobody has anything to worry about. If (and I would tend towards this) govts are competing then the gravest error would be to underestimate the opposition. That way lies certain ruin.

In pool playing parlance they call it being hustled.

In poker, if you don't know who the fish at the table is...

etc etc

The volatility over the past few days is certainly uncomfortable but I can't see that this is a trust issue. This is the Chinese government shutting down a massive loophole in its financial system.

Let's avoid making Btc price drops a personal matter. It's a market with a diverse range of views.

Given that china is still trading at a discount, there could be some further selling pressure in china. However, given lower volumes, this indicates that some Btc holders are resigned to the fact they have been caught out and are now converting to long term holding.

Please add your insights.

Sorry for not being clear, I was anthropomorphising nations through their government policies, not suggesting that any individuals are the suckers.

If that is the case I don't understand why they haven't outlawed it entirely? Or do you think that is still to come?

Given that Btc china sits in the shanghai free trading zone, it should be protected as if it was an exchange in HK or Macau. Therefore, it cannot be made illegal else the free trading zone concept is dead.

However, the Chinese government is absolutely shutting down all RMB flows out of china via btcs by banning third party processors and bank to bank transfers.

I suspect in future, Chinese people wanting btcs must purchase it via cash deposits in HK, Macau and maybe the shanghai free trading zone. Plus person to person local btcs of course.

Eventually, an Argentina scenario should emerge. Btcs in china should trade higher than ROW. Just not right now as there is still some selling pressure.

And yet you think they will want to get rid of their bitcoins, which makes it incredibly easy to move one's money around?

love it.

Shouldn't be long now before China BTC trades at a premium to the other exchanges.   All the early speculators are either out or buying back in.  

I believe people trying to shift RMBs out of China will be looking for BTCs within China.  This should be the Argentina scenario replayed but on a bigger scale.

Because it doesn't help mainlanders.  Hong Kong and Macau are basically foreign countries (you need a type of passport to visit them) and you cannot freely transfer fiat to them.

Soon, withdrawals will be removed as well.  If BTC China remains open, but has no withdrawals / deposits, will anybody trade on it?

Last I checked, gambling revenue in Macau was still rising.  Also, I see plenty of rich Chinese hanging around HK and Singapore.

I see at least two possible outcomes (and there are many more I'm sure):

1. Cash transactions with BTC China directly in Shanghai, which means BTC China might have to setup a network of branches in the big cities, or do a deal with someone to setup branch networks.
2. Decentralised P2P or B2B exchanges being developed.

Sure but the rich Chinese in HK and Singapore dont need BTCC.  They already have access to international markets.  BTCC gives access to the middle class (dont get me wrong - there is no shortage of whales on there but I do wonder how many of the whales are actually Westerners in disguise).  

I cannot get my head around how a decentralised exchange would work - you still need to interact with fiat at some point. (And no, localbitcoins is not an exchange).  The Ripple trust model just looks a shambles to me.

This is a good point.  But my point is that the money between China and these trading zones can be quite porous.  But you're right, middle class access will be hammered, which is why I think BTCs in China will eventually trade at a premium relative to ROW.

Two Goxii in the east?


Holy Batman.

Roughly (and I might be explaining something you already know): you'll have a third party escrow type service who sits as a mediator.  The contract is done online. The fiat transaction is done via bank to bank wire at minimal cost.  Evidence of transfer is provided to third party, who releases BTCs to party providing evidence.  

Yes, it will add to expense.  But over time, reputations will be built.  Kind of like a credit history.

The oracle / escrow agent only can only block the bitcoin transaction (if it is a double public key transaction).  They can't block the flow of fiat funds.   So the escrow agent provides nil protection to the person sending the fiat.  Unless I am missing something.

Person sending fiat provides irrefutable evidence that fiat was transferred. Btc then gets released to them.

There are issues if the fiat sent is fraudulent and gets clawed back.

Ok understand. Doesn't help avoid capital controls though. If you can't wire from mainland China to Hong Long due to capital controls that model you just described doesn't help.  It only works for cross border where international wire transfers are allowed.