Bitcoin Forum

I read this a couple of weeks ago and it seem to be exactly what is happening.

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2013/11/20/bitcoin-hype-cycle/

Yeah, this is a very common theory that people have posted about time and time again, this one has just tried to put it in literal bitcoin market terms.

and the last three times this is what happened too, right?

This is what happen's at least three times a year.

So it looks like we're going through these steps right now then:

Step 9. Noobs see value plummeting, panic, and sell (often at a loss)
Step 10. Price bottoms out, but not below where it started
Step 11. Veterans hike down into the crater and buy, buy, buy.
Step 12. Price stabilizes a little bit; noobs think “I’m an idiot”; feel burned and get out of Bitcoin. But some stay.

Yes but this time it was allot more hype

Each hype is bigger than the previous. The first one was up to 32, the second to 170, this to 1200. Can't wait to see where the next will lead to!

In percentage terms, the crash of April '13 was smaller than the slide down from the '11 high. IIRC, the very bottom was still about twice as high as it would have needed to go to go as deep as in '11, as a percentage of the peak.

Now, in April, the bottom on Bitstamp was, if my data is right, about 17% of the peak. That means that if we stay above 197 USD or so this time, the crash will have been less deep again. We're about to get another data point on the idea that free markets will stabilize themselves.

Edit: Incidentally, the current low of 382ish is again about twice as high as the low would be, were this crash to go as deep as the April one did.

Next one can only be 10K then!

But it won't be. Too much speculation. How many times can you re-inflate the same used condom?

As many times as it takes for people to stop thinking it'll protect you against anything.

actually, about infinity

This time some people seriously got hurt.  That's what is bad about the bulls hyping things up.  People proposed selling the house, getting loans, etc to buy bitcoins... That is just ridiculous and could potentially ruin the lives of those that depend on them.

Most say here: never invest money you cant loose.
I hope all follow this advice

Never invest money you can't afford to wait 2 years for.

In the good old days that's what you did for a long time. And you kept it in a special box.

Unfortunately I did see some posts about: should I invest my life savings in BTC now or wait for a dip?  and you do get "bulls" who just say buy buy buy no matter what, in all circumstances, mainly for their own profit.

It's always a bit odd seeking advice from people in a competitive market...like seriously, how can you trust anyone?

Nah, it's only competitive for traders. It's co-op for investors :)

this is happening all the time.

Yes, bitcoin is volatile, but it's also very predictable.

Yup, only a few weeks ago people were proposing loans from banks or their 401k and -- to their credit -- many of the posters on here advised against it. But it was frightening to see how many actually urged them on like it was a good idea. At the time, it was treated around here as a given that we'd see a price of $2,000 USD minimum by the end of December. Of course, no one will fess up to this now, but you all know who you are  ;)

In Bitcoin right now has always been the best time to buy.

After every crash is good time to buy. Dont know if right under $400 was the bottom though

Dude, no-one know what "after a crash" is until after the fact. Therefore "right now" is ALWAYS the best time to buy.

How about just buying bitcoin because they're awesome?