Bitcoin Forum

Just for fun, because… who knows, really?

Poll closes on New Year's Eve. Answers can be changed until then.

The reward for being right is that you know when to buy in during 2014. ;D (Unless someone wants to offer other rewards.)

It's interesting how four people think that we will hit $1200 this year so hard that we won't bounce below it—on any of the exchanges—in the beginning of next year. Even I am not that bullish.

Hodling, though.

Equally bizarre are the 4 people who think it will be worth <$1.

1222$  ;D

Still a lot of time to stabilize price till next year, so between $200 and $400 I guess

I do. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53949.msg644802#msg644802)

Between $50 and $200.

To be fair, I'd include the case where there are no exchanges left, nobody is mining anymore, and nobody will want to have anything to do with your bitcoins at any price. While I don't think that's exactly likely, it's probably more likely than MtGox trading at sub-dollar prices.

30-ish hours left to vote.

Between $200 and $400.

Haha! Followed that, expecting to see a bear's argument, but I see you are long-term bullish and have estimated $50 - $200 as the absolute minimum price based on fundamentals. Someone should maybe explain to Krugman that the real things aren't actually being destroyed for fake money; the real things are preserved in a different form.

And all money is fake, even gold. Gold has value for electrical properties etc but that's around 1/1000th its trade value, perhaps less. The value of money is its moneyness, and will always be so, for as long as humans conduct trade the way we do. Therefore, a more perfect money is always going to be valuable. And gold will never be less than its value for making conductors. Bitcoin will never be less than (possibly) your figure. Good reasoning, in any case. How are you calculating? Blockchain's electricity figures are so far off...

Bitcoin is binary.  It is either going to the moon or to zero.  It is a good choice.  But 2014 is probably too short a time frame to know. 

~300 if the China ban escalates, but the rest of the world continues using bitcoin. High probability.

~100 if a major Western entity (e.g. US, EU - US more likely than EU) go a similar path as China. Low probability.

Anything could happen, but I don't think it's going to be as bad as some people try to make out.

What exchange?

Money, in whatever form, is only as valuable as the buying power behind it; ie: what people are willing to trade you for X amount of whatever form of money it is you're trying to barter with.

Interesting poll from the beginning of the year.
Actually, people predicted quite well. Only 60% predicted an all year low higher than the actual band (unless it crashes over the next two weeks, of course).
This poll provides some positive news on the levels of awareness of risk.