Bitcoin Forum

so in wikipedia there is an article for the chart look of a classic bubble stage, it is from Jean-Paul Rodrigue source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Rodrigue

I hate to admit that as much as I hate watching the "stage of a bubble chart", it seems so F%&$/!? accurate, Is Bitcoin a different story ?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Stages_of_a_bubble.png


from bitcoinwisdon 1d zoom out

https://i.imgur.com/NpCeV7s.jpg



Looks familiar ?

.....
....
Fucking kill me.

Awesome. :D

HODL me  :'(

I hate this thing.

But, I can't think of a more accurate description of "New Paradigm" than "we need to call it mBTC"

You've been here long enough to know that picture gets posted every crash.

Exactly.

yes but no one ever zoomed out, we are watching the whole year at this picture, I dont want to believe the content, I want to believe that Bitcoin is something different but watching it scare me all the time :(

This is what, the fifth bubble bitcoin had? Boring.

HODL on I know this chart .... where have I seen it before  ??? Ow wait in every topic posted  :P


EDIT: Inb4 we're in the first selloff

Wasn't that posted when we went over $8? 

sigh btc isnt your traditional commodity. to try and characterize crypto whould def need an extended chart and much more then a couple years of speculation. This drop is strictly due to China pulling back. To try and say it was foresaw via a chart s ridiculous. 

If the chart is right we should see a drop to like $150. I think our mean is about $270 right now.

And $30 and $100 and $200...lol

not so ridiculous... note the "return to normal" reference.  This rise was played out.  If it hadn't been the China news it would have been something else.

This time it looks very convincing to me...

Usually I find that picture misleading, but now it looks uncanny...
Maybe more important is that the 1d MACD has now turned negative after a long time.

The graph is actually quite accurate.

Except in EVERY bitcoin bubble so far, the after-bubble price has been much higher than the incoming price.

In other words, the grey "mean" line at the bottom should be sloping much steeper upwards.

Exactly what I was about to say, I was here in April and the chart looked exactly the same, but the mean line wasnt all the way down.

Yeah it's still such a new market, and more and more people are becoming convinced of bitcoins true, combined with a very small percentage of total coins actually on the market at any one time, mean the "mean" is going to be very hard to penetrate.

I've found an up to date depiction of the bubble


https://images.weserv.nl/?url=i.imgur.com%2Feup4OKl.jpg


source: http://coinmarketcap.com/

Glad i went all in to dogecoin last week.

Much profit
wow

Naaaaaaah


https://i.imgur.com/6OPHd0H.jpg

thereisnobubble.jpeg

Yeah, this is the daily picture, but just because the last day endet at 600 - but it was down to 380 in the middle of this day -> so this would be a lot lower on the graph.

The fit is nice so far, but shouldnt next data have to be uncertain (otherwise it would be too easy to make pofits by everyone if we know tommorow price)

one can only hodl crypto. no hodling around with fiat, dude.

I like this one. It clearly shows that Bitcoin is going to drop to below zero values, in the near future. Not only would it be worthless, but people would actually be paying money to get rid of their bitcoins. Maybe I should open a bitcoin disposal service, or something.

yeah, thats exactly what that chart shows  ::)

Nah This is the updated version.
https://i.imgur.com/tmZlBpQ.jpg

Wow such moon.

That fucking doge meme is one of the most stupid things to come from the internet.  Its right up there with "rage comics" or whatever the hell that 4chan abortion is called.

Yeah, I said the same thing when I heard about it, And when other people show me it I still go "Ugh", But for some reason its addictive, I don't know why. Anyways, Isn't like Justin Bieber a worse thing to come out of the internet? He started on Youtube.

https://i.imgur.com/s4x1zVk.png?1

This is from first of January, log scale, do you feel any better?

This chart may be relevant in a decade or three.

You can't see that the chart is reusable for any major bubble?

This chart will be relevant for all bubbles.

It's happened 4 times now at different magnitudes.

I think we're still in this "return to normal" phase now because everyone is still following the movements of btcchina while forgetting and denying to themselves that is a sinking ship. Every recovery is led by btcchina still.

Yes, without a doubt it's going to go down again.

What goat said.

Every rise/fall/correction this chart gets pulled out... of course it looks accurate but it has no time scale...you can zoom in/out pretty much any stock and get it to fit into this pattern...that's because crowds follow the same patterns, which is essentially Elliot wave theory - when any stock rises suddenly it tends to fall in this pattern.

Just hodl and enjoy your holidays.

Exaclty, that's why im holding on more than 80% of my BTC and still spend some whatever the fiat ratio is..

Log chart = more realistic

Interesting years are to come.. the past years were just an introduction...

THIS

+1

That's why im currently buying :)

HODL GUYS, we are going to fly without China :)


I was buying all the way, I am out of FIAT, as much as that Chart is scary but I think Bitcoin is a whole different story....

+1

The log chart looks less scary, but I believe the bubble graph typical example is intended for no log scale

That's why it's not applicable.

From this chart can is it safe to say yesterdays low of $380 won't be seen again?

Anymore dips below $500 before Christmas?

I have no Idea, Bitcoin is unpredictable, we are just speculating, so if there will be no more bad news and if the trend will continue this way, I think we are recovering slowly, if I think there will be new lows ?  the best thing is to spread the risks, you buy some now , you open some low orders just in case and you keep some fiat in standby for fast reaction, at least this is what I've done lately....

That's what I did yesterday as it dipped. Miss the $400 mark but got in at $500 and kept a little fiat in the event it goes to or below $450 again.
Right now I don't see that happening but I've got my fingers crossed for Sunday to Tuesday, I'm thinking Christmas slows things down enough it dips again.

I dont know what you mean by "how", I made it out of speculation....

MS Paint :D

I'm going to guess and say bitcoinwisdom.com and photoshop/mspaint.

greenshot, it is an open source and free program you can download, it is cool you can edit and upload directly to imgur ;)

You have to be really stupid to believe that a log chart shows different information than a linear chart.

this:
https://i.imgur.com/lYnYvDF.png

is exactly the same as this:

https://i.imgur.com/vheamU5.png


They show the EXACT SAME information. All the crowing about log charts on this forum is asinine.

That aside, if you actually believe that bitcoin has not had several bubbles, and is not at the tail end of one that just popped, you are either extremely naive or downright mentally retarded. 

Nailed it.

dude forbes just posted that fucking stupid ass chart again too

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/

holy shit, did he just copy my thread ?   I feel guilty now :(

Wow that’s some lazy ass journalism.  Even if Bitcoin returns to $100, perhaps they would like to name a fund, stock, asset or anything else that has had a better ROI in the last 12 months.  This may be the start of the end, but it is way too early to make that call yet.

That’s why I personally like the log chart. It better reflects the reality of what is happening.  Even if you bought at $1200 there is an exceedingly good chance that we will be past that in 12 months in my opinion.  I have been trying to find an example of something else that has behaved with so much volatility with spikes, dips and rapid recoveries, but I am not having much luck so far. 

As overwhelmingly compelling the bubble chart and reality is...  ^^^THAT is a contrarian indicator IMO.

What I do not get is that there have been so many times where bitcoins were crashing and this "bubble chart" was not applying and now that we did not even know if we are in the "popping bubble" phase, everyone is quick to fit that chart.

Looks like a sort of investor's fallacy here but of course, if people believe that, they should sell.