Bitcoin Forum

Hi,
does anybody know how long it takes to get a refund for the Neptune? Does anybody have experience or even claimed the refund?

That would be one of the black swan predictions for 2014. What happens if BTC crashes and everyone wants to refund their neptune orders...

In case you did the refund please let the community know if you manage to do it.

Well I thought the same, what if everybody claims the refund? I mean I paid around 15 btc for around 15000$ and with a btc price of 560$ now I would rather buy btcs now than mine bitcoin at some point in the future? If everybody would do the same KNC would be broke or not? (I sure don´t want this to happen!!!)

Buy back twice what you spent in bitcoin now. As the price goes back up, you will have received your Neptune for free. How do people not get this!

they will close down if everyone wants a refund. KNC shuts down? something unimaginable...

At current btc price roi in fiat questionable. Gonna be interesting.

Refund is obviously the best move now. there is no way you're going to mine 20-25 bitcoin with your Neptune, even with the most optimistic projections.

Because it's wrong - as the price goes back up, you won't have received a Neptune at all.

I'm frigging delighted I ordered & paid for my Neptune as the currency was peaking relative to USD.  It cost me a lot less coin than if they announced it today (and I might not have been able to afford it if they did)

Sure, you'll have your coins, and you might cash one in from time to time, or you might not, but at least you'll have them, right?

Whereas if you have an actual Neptune, as the price goes back up, not only will you have received your Neptune for free, but you'll ALSO get a significant income on top of it, for a while anyhow.  How do people not get this?

Really? That's what you get for slacking off in math class I guess.

Now i understand why knc sold hardware and not just mined them self,but they might have big big problems if people want refunds now and they used that money to buy supplys with.

Well show me your projections then.  an optimistic one for me is 20% increase per difficulty change and early march delivery. A pessimist one is 30% increase and june delivery and in both case you wont mine 20 bitcoins with the neptune.

lol, even at a difficulty of 2.75billion a 3th machine will bring in over .5btc a day. that's a very pessimistic increase in difficulty and you are telling me a neptune wont mine 20btc? what math did you fail?

Not wanting to go too much off topic here but a diff of 2.75 B should be easily hit long before March. If not I invite you to bet heavily on the no side of this bet:

http://bitbet.us/bet/619/bitcoin-difficulty-at-or-above-2b-before-feb/

Notice it states 2B before February.  Thanks!



Also, this is my favorite calculator:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php

I think I should promote it seeing that there are a lot of new people using calculators with diff increases by the year and so on.

And that's your failure. The difficulty isn't going to cap at 2.75B. It's going far beyond that before even a single Neptune ever turns on.

The difficulty doesn't freeze the day you get your miner. .5 a day becomes .4, .3 .2. 1 , .05, etc very quickly. With so many TH miner offerings coming out in Q1/Q2 the projections of exponential difficulty rises continuing is very probable.

Oups, i calculated for April, not March. So a early april delivery and 20% increase might get you 30-35 btc. A more realistic projections of 30% increase and march delivery will get you 12-16 btc. A June delivery and 30% increase will get you 2-4 btc..

If the price of btc tanks and knc gets flooded with refund requests, knc will simply change their refund policy and start denying refunds. Also, keep in mind that it takes 5-10 business days for a requested refund to reach your bank account, do by the time the money gets to your account the price of btc may have changed dramatically.

interesting calculator. thanks (i think)

+1 This is what I use and it's really good

The difficulty cannot keep going up 20-30% every 10 days. It will eventually level out because it is impossible to add that much hash power to the network that quickly once the difficulty is sky high. Exponential difficulty increases cannot continue forever.

I suspect the difficulty will begin to level out around March of next year after most of the existing pre-orders are delivered, and the mining hardware situation stabilizes. Quite a few hardware manufacturers will likely fail before then.

People keep saying that but that parabola keeps going vertical.

No it won't be 30% forever but it will be for at least the next 6 months if not more. You realize that the Neptunes order only (2400 units) add 7200 TH/s to the network? that almost the actual hashrate.

By the time Neptunes hit the network, the difficulty will be a lot higher.

What do you expect the price of btc to be when the neptunes hit?

No clue, probably higher but it doesn't matter. If you buy mining equipment you should always look at your ROI in btc. If you want to speculate on btc just buy some.

Never ever calculate a shipping date as arriving early. The only thing KnC will deliver in March are more Jupiters. Even June is optimistic for Neptunes.

just like the price can't keep flying up like some believe..
  @ $1000 per btc, and ~3600 btc produced daily, that is a boatload of new money needed to justify the total valuation.


 all the new red tape pretty much snuffed that out short term at least

How much do You want for this preorder? 1 Neptune or 2? Batch 1? Order #?

It won't keep doing it forever but I think it will continue for quite a while.  It might slow down a bit in March but then all the manufacturers that are running behind schedule will hit and push it higher.

At least over the next 3 months it's going to be murder because the difficulty is already rising very rapidly with existing hardware being delivered (antminer, avalon 2, asicminer, Bitfury etc.) and now Hashfast and Cointerra as well as Bitmine are about to start dumping chips left and right and this is without counting the multiple Chinese ASIC manufacturers that are about to release their chips.  Then guys like Black Arrow will come online, etc.

I would honestly use something like 8 billion to estimate what difficulty will be by the time you get the Neptune, assuming there's no crazy issues with 20nm that make it super delayed (which is possible, and issues with 20nm take longer to fix).  Then you have to take a guess as to where BTC will be at that point, which is something that almost nobody can answer at this point, but all I can say is that it'd be insane to just assume it'll be worth more than 600 when it's tanking in front of us.  If you use something like $300 a BTC and 8 billion difficulty then ROI starts to look difficult.  If you are an optimist and use something like 5 billion difficulty and $400 a BTC it might eventually ROI but it's not going to be the quick money people are hoping for.

This is why I felt $10K was too much.  $14K one month later for 2nd batch ppl hurts.

I guess if all you care about is fiat and the price rebounds, then hurray.  The golden days of mining hundreds upon hundreds of BTC is gone.  People selling off their ability to mine now so they could get machines later seemed silly to me unless you are having luck selling pre-orders to suckers on ebay.

What a bunch of wishy-washy fraidycats!  Grow some balls and tough it out.  Or better yet, quit mining and go "speculate" on the exchanges.  Good luck with that!  Leave the mining to those of us who aren't going to crap our pants every time there's a price dip.

Oh by the way, the current price is up almost $200 over yesterday's low.

If you payed with BTC, you used bitpay. That means that KNC never saw your bitcoins.
You give your BTC to Bitpay and Bitpay gives $/€ to KNC.

If you ask for a refund, they don't even have to accept it, as nothing is specified in their terms and conditions : https://www.kncminer.com/pages/tandc
If they do, because they never saw your BTC, the refund would be in $/€.

At 20nm this machine is built for the future if the power consumption to hash rate falls in line. I bought one of these hoping that it will remain profitable for a longer period of time, keeping me in the game for longer.

https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners


It would be very bad if they started refusing refunds at this time.

Lol, it sure quieted down in here since BTC rebounded nicely over the past 2 days.  See, the mass panic was all-for-naught.

But be prepared for the next "crash" and the next "rebound" followed by the next "bubble"... ad infinitum.  But for god's sake, don't PANIC!

They already said the refund will be in US$ when you agreed on the purchase. So nothing new there.

I think a lot of you should refund your Neptune order.

I agreed. People who want to get involve with BTC need to have more balls. Or just buy bitcoin.

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

is it me or is that line getting even more vertical?

A great big steep exponential curve is what Bitcoinorama calls, "plateauing". LOL.

And it's barely started.  It's gonna go FULL FUCKING RETARD for the next few months while all this 28nm pre-order shit eventually rolls out.

Is plateau a synonym for vertical line?

Hilarious post. In the hashfast thread everyone was freaking out that they were going to pay the $ value of orders back on refunds made instead of giving the bitcoins back. Here people are hoping they can get the dollar value back instead of their btc so they can buy more coin. As usual, you paid a price in $$. You will receive a refund in $$. Knc has used bitpay, which means your btc payment was sent to them immediately in fiat and any refunds would be in that form. Why you want a refund on an order from two weeks ago with a 6minth timeframe is beyond me. If that was your last dollar, you really shouldn't have been buying a speculative machine with it. On a big dip like this you should have been buying more coin like so many did.

big talk once it is back to 700..  you might want to revisit the posts during the time it was $400 and see how many people were saying 'buying more'

but hey that is the 20/20 hindsight bs that this forum is known for...


my stance has been to just sell the coins as I mine them...  i may trade with the proceeds from time to time, but I rather not hoard and hope like most

I was saying "buy more" and so were a lot of people I know :P Actually I was buying on the way down, trading these huge dips, and doing quite well.

Selling the coins as you mine them? So you have zero faith or interest in the success of Bitcoin. Nothing you say has any relevance to these discussions, because you don't believe in it.

wow you like to go digital quick on an issue...   I do have faith in bitcoin's utility and use it but to think you should just hold forever like some gold hoarder shows your fallacy as well right?

So when is the time to ever sell bitcoin?? never?? only wait till the world stops using fiat and only uses bitcoin?  is that your stance?  I probably bought more things than you have with bitcoins (don't include miners)

to be clear, since you will leap if I don't spell it out, I don't mind buying bitcoins to use no matter the price but don't really think hoarding is the answer in utility.  
That is why I put gambit in my sig, since that is a wonderful use for bitcoin and have a bunch in there so I guess I am 'holding' btc while they are in there.

Explain how a group of hoarders will help spread the utility of bitcoin?  paint yourself in a corner now have we?  And you say you trade as well so that means you are just in it for the speculation 'belief'

I didn't say hold forever, I've been trading them hard. These big volatile movements are huge opportunities. Selling them directly from mining however, that would have made it so I couldn't buy a bunch of jupiters from the mining income of a few gpus! The more I get at a lower price, the more I can spend on other things, be it mining hardware or other goods. Right now we are at the beginning of this thing, holding some for a long term investment is a good risk.

stay nimble

and remember that promoting the use of bitcoin will increase the base value that gets amplified by scarcity/hoarding

it doesn't work the other way around.  10000000x of nothing mineaswell be called CNC