Bitcoin Forum

The Chinese govt will either ban Btc outright soon or lose the war.

What will happen next?

I think they will continue to be treated as commodities.

They effectively banned it. I glad china drove us so high but we can now forget about china.

Slight poll edit, feel free to change your vote.

Next step is banning cash withdrawals from exchanges.  Remember the Dec. 5 press release barred financial institutions from involvement in Bitcoins.  They have already stopped cash deposits on exchanges.  Soon, a cash withdrawal deadline will be announced.  IMHO

They can't kill bitcoin,

and you have to understand the economics.

Money WANTS to LEAVE China. The Chinese government doesn't want this. Sadly for them, with todays technology like bitcoin, they can't stop it, they can only slow it (and if theyre not careful the extra attention can make it happen faster)

It has already been announced.  People keep forgetting or didn't read the second announcement properly. Spring Festival January 31 all withdrawals banned.  Bobby Lee is just trying to keep up morale at this point.  Mt Gox has proved you can run an exchange without fiat withdrawals.  Running an exchange without fiat deposits is still possible (BTC) but have my doubts about how attractive it would be.

I personally think that Chinese intelligence agencies either know something horrible about bitcoin and are planning to completely kill it (e.g. it was designed by the NSA), or they are working together with the Americans (NSA/CIA) and were ordered to temporarily halt bitcoin's growth in China so globalist corporate entities can still buy them at low prices. I don't buy the whole story that the Chinese government is afraid of money laundering/capital flight.

The fact that there is a USD50,000 limit per person annual withdrawal limit from China (which is enforced) indicates that they are scared of capital flight.  

That's what they want the world to think, but what's going on behind the scene is a completely different story.

Of course the rich can get around it that's nothing new (most Hong Kong companies are just laundering mainland money) but that's not the point.  Laws and rules are for the middle class to obey not the rich one percent and that holds true in the USA as well.  

They don't want the middle class to have access to capital flight because there are a lot of them.

LOL. Seriously. Stop talking. This isn't a conspiracy theory forum, it's economic speculation, not cart blanch to come up with your own ridiculous theories.

Hows that ridiculous? I think there's a high probability it's true.

If you are highly dellusional and bought @ 1000$, then yes  ;D
Love that speculation forum.

See you in a few months when either one of those two predictions come out true. :)

Which one?

1. The Chinese intelligence agencies know something 'horrible' about bitcoin. We don't know what kind of horror but he provides an example. Eg. Designed by NSA.

2. The Chinese agencies are working alongside the NSA/CIA and the Americans ordered the Chinese to halt growth, so the big global corporates can buy in at a low price.

If you go through each scenario it gets increasingly obviously to any sane human that the probability of either of these things being true is pretty low. Starting with the NSA designing Bitcoin and ending with the USA ordering China to halt progress so that global corporations can buy in cheap. Let me know when that big buy UP occurs.....

at this point hard to say
They have already undermined trust in China, there is no need for further actions, at least right now

I voted for the third option but I think in the near future China will relax the current legislation (?) after a better analysis.
I think they did it to stop an overgrowing bubble, they won't ban it, it would be very stupid for any modern economy

Where is the answer "Bitcoin causes a civil revolt in China and the country is thrown into anarchy whilst fighting for a full democracy"  ;)

Perhaps, but I would suggest that there is something very shifty going on. China at first were all open arms towards Bitcoin with pro-Bitcoin documentaries going out on state television, and now they are pulling the plug on it, with the obvious consequences on price in both directions.

To suggest that someone or some people 'in the know' is going to be picking up a lot of filthy cheap coins at a point where even the most ardent 'HOLD NO MATTER WHAT' btc investors are panicked into dumping, isn't so much a conspiracy theory, as something which is looking almost probable at this point in time. Who knows what the scale of this China thing might be. If we would be at around $150-$200 without China, and since crashes always overshoot the mean just imagine the panic there would be if we took a dip back into the double figures. BTC @ $40?

Of course, most here don't really like to consider the realistic implications of a China market wind out as it conflicts too much with their rosy paradigms. The Chinese government may yet decide to do a U-turn on their Bitcoin stance for whatever reasons, in which case this worst case scenario may never come to pass (providing they do their U-turn on it before the event and not after), but a Bitcoin investor at this present time has to ask himself, "what is looking like the most likely outcome in China?"

Good point. Duly added.

The true situation is not reflected in the poll.  That makes the poll rather ludicrous.  Bitcoin is being traded in China, and will continue to be traded in China.  The PBOC has determined that it is to be treated pari paribus with other commodities such as copper, oil, or rice.   Exchanges are a high growth business.  Whenever there is a high growth business in China, well-connected family members of powerful government figures muscle in.  That's why okcoin and btcchina has their deposits cut off.  Those businesses will either fail, or be converted to the follow the norms for commodity exchanges in China.

I think it's wishful thinking to think China will recover.  I think it is game over in China.  I've been here 4 years now and have a decent idea the way the government operates. 

First, they seemed open and friendly to Bitcoin.  A tactic only, while behind the scenes they viewed it as a threat and tried to determine how to move against it.

Second, they released a vague and general statement through the PBOC banning financial institutions from involvement in Bitcoin, while still stating individuals are free to own it.  Again, on the surface appearing accepting of Bitcoin, but those that understand how government works here, reading between the lines as a warning shot to get the hell out.  My Chinese girlfriend actually read the press release and warned me in advance that Bitcoin was now being taken seriously by government.

Not long after, a secret meeting was held with payment processors to stop all funding of exchanges.  Again, moving in the direction of a complete Ban, but still leaving the door open for individuals to trade bitcoin and withdraw back to CNY.

Next step???  I believe they will set a time banning financial institutions from allowing CNY withdrawal.  The government is just corralling the herd.  Once this happens, a stampede to get money off chinese exchanges happens.  Price falls dramatically.

Result:  Bitcoin still legal to hold and trade just as the government initially had said.  However, essentially worthless for the average Chinese without a foreign bank account.

You could be right but for now I can't imagine china allowing a freely convertible currency. That could be devastating for the housing bubble there.

China's out for the foreseeable future.  It's fairly obvious why they would not allow Bitcoin.  They have tons of currency controls, Bitcoin bypasses them.  If they wanted these controls to be bypassed, they could create their own system, and earn money/have complete control over it.  No need to use Bitcoin. 

We also cannot say 100% who created Bitcoin.  Although the NSA theory is at the moment simply a conspiracy theory, do not rule such a thing out.  There is no other organization with more research into cryptography / wealth transfer worldwide.  If the NSA believed such a payment system would catch on, they would have no problem launching it.  As we can see with alt-coins, there is a huge first-mover advantage in crypto-currency.  BTC has nearly 20x the market cap of next currency (LTC), and is the only crypto with true utility beyond speculation.

Despite the persistence of underground markets to use BTC for transactions (Silk Road et al), the government seems content with Bitcoin.  We must ask ourselves why?  They shut down e-Gold and LR simply for the fact that people were using it to conduct illicit activity.  With these shutdowns, it was quite obvious that centralized payment systems were prone to government intervention.  One could safely assume that these shutdowns would have led new thinkers towards a decentralized method of exchange. 

If the NSA believed that a decentralized currency was eventually going to hit the landscape, what other choice would they have but to make their own?  A true decentralized currency would be very difficult to shut down, even with an outright ban in the USA.  The ban works well against people like you and me speculating on prices, or buying a baseball cap through Bitpay, but really does nothing to prevent illegal activity.  For those willing to take all the measures required to transact on dark markets, what's the stretch in buying your bitcoins through a localbitcoin-type of exchange (AKA decentralized).

Long story short, if the NSA came up with the idea for crypto-currency, they would have every incentive to create a crypto-currency.  Am I saying this hypothetical situation is correct?  Of course not.  But this is a conspiracy theory which is always worth thinking about.

The poll indicates most people believe Btcs will survive via "well connected" exchanges or cash only exchanges. Based on the above, for me, btcs will most likely survive in china. This could imply economic volatility in china down the track as people observe continued Btc trading in china. IMHO, investors in china will eventually pile into btcs as a store of value once again.