Bitcoin Forum

I just like most others when first hearing of Bitcoins was excited, confused and intrigued. Now that I know a little bit more  (my knowledge is still minimal respectively to others on this forum) I feel that Bitcoin is currently undergoing a power struggle. Between the speculators and the believers.

My understanding of the Bitcoin was a decentralised currency giving the people the control. A currency which was controlled through the consumers demand and not the governmental supply. I'm sure many others see the Bitcoin in a similar light, yet at the moment the Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculators dream.

It's ironic that statements from a governmental organisation can inflate and deflate the value of the Bitcoin so greatly when the whole point of the Bitcoin is it decentralisation. You see the way I see it, the Bitcoin is nothing more than a traders tool at the moment. It's current purchasing power is fairly weak and it's extremely volatile. Ofcourse this is expected at the current Supply level, yet it's not helped by the speculators not trusting in the technology and vision of the Bitcoin and hoarding there coins away when governments issue statements.

From a businesses point of view how could I accept a currency that could potentially be worth 40% of what it was worth upon accepting it. Currently a lot of people pin the value of the USD to the Bitcoin. However to truly fuel the biteconomy we need to spend the BTC we have and covert them into USD (and yes we need to volatility to settle). 

The way I see it for the coin to succeed we need the right users behind it. Because ultimately it is only worth what we make of it.

You do realise this has been repeated constantly on the Bitcointalk forums since Bitcoin was trading for $50 right? Perhaps even earlier because I wasn't around before then, speculators will always be a part of economies and that's just a fact of life, blaming them for volatility isn't going to change anything, more and more people now are accepting Bitcoin for their businesses or as payments so eventually what will happen is the volume will spread out and then the price should start to settle down.

Now that isn't to say there won't be jumps or price spikes in the future or that the currency won't continue to rise and make paper money look like the devalued, hyperinflated mess that it is or there won't be a crash or two but that's just how economies work. You see, this is happening precisely because Bitcoin is unregulated or rather self-regulating, there's a mathematical limit to everything, how many can be traded how many can be created out of thin air and the prices are simply honestly reflecting that, you don't have a central bank here desperately trying to keep it at a fixed rate by pumping it any time it falls or selling off the moment it rises.

Global economics was a fixed game before, now it isn't so it's better to just get used to it rather than witch hunting speculators.

p.s. If you don't like how Bitcoin works I don't understand why people don't just go out and make their own coin if they know better, welcome to the wonderful world of open source :P

Trust builds over time. There is no way to force this or speed this process up. For each year that bitcoin weathers the storm, people will consider it stronger.

It's hard to trust a system that has only existed a few years and can (in the eyes of many users) disappear at any time. So that makes especially new users understandably twitchy.

This is all part of the process to adoption. its something bitcoin has to survive to grow. Its also commonly agreed upon that speculation will help it get from where it was to where its going.

its price has to rise over time. For anything with a rising price, its going to attract speculation. this is especially true because regardless of bitcoins ups and downs it always ends up higher. This is vary attractive to speculators. i dont think it can be helped and it also helps bitcoin find its price.

to many points to correct no one except those that bought in the last two months have watched the price drop and that's a pretty shallow time frame

I am not arguing that the speculators are not important or useful to the Bitcoin economy. Yet currently the speculators are probably out weighing the actual users of the currency.

There are a lot of speculators, if not, the majority of people holding bitcoins are speculators as opposed to real users.

This is not necessary a bad thing though.

Bitcoin still has to mature a lot to be used more in real world transactions, and the speculators are what will help keep it alive until it has time to grow to this stage.

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Except that no other kind of money swings 50-200% a day and at this volatility why would merchants even bother with such a "currency"? And if regular people don't use it as a currency, then the only use of Bitcoin remains in it's anonimity (drugs, tax evasion) and volatility (speculators) - both niche markets, meaning it will NEVER grow to the point where the price might become stable on the size alone.

Not probably they are.... but it's also true that very few places overall actually accept bitcoin currently. So that makes a lot of sense.

Ultimately though the market will decide what bitcoin should become..... a currency, a commodity you invest in,  or a combination of both.

Bitcoin is still so early in it's infancy there's not much point in stressing out about things like too much speculation. The worth noting is that more and more merchants are signing up to accept bitcoin, so long as that continues to happen the likelyhood of bitcoin becoming more of a "currency" is more likely to happen.

As far as I know the issue of volatility is negated by merchants using payment providers like coinbase and bitpay.  Also it's worth pointing out that even if only a small % of customers pay with bitcoin a merchant is still saving money by not paying more expensive credit card fee's on those same transactions and the cost of accepting bitcoin is 0 once you have a phone with an app already set up so there isn't any loss in accepting bitcoin even if only a few people use it.

Anyways the issue of volatility should smooth out in coming years more , any small market is going to be victim to huge swings.

Good points. But, as my old retail boss told a customer once who was complaining about her local store - well madam, if its not to your liking, then there are other things you could do with your time.

That was a bit low, even for him. But Bitcoin is not the only coin on the block, you could try another coin or start your own.

I'm a big believer in Bitcoin, both as a currency and for what it can potentially stand for and how it could possibly revolutionise the banking system, and it's because of this that I'm holding my coins and speculating on the future price. If you think Bitcoin is going to keep growing, then it's wise to hold on to your coins as the value is likely to increase in many multiples. There's nothing much I'd like to buy with Bitcoin at the moment so I don't just want to fritter them away on crap, but I would be more than happy to spend my coins when it's possible to do so on the highstreet and in many online retailers for stuff I actually want. I may spend some coins if I come across an establishment accepting them as I'd like to do my bit, but I can do my part in other ways by promoting Bitcoin and spreading the word etc.


I don't see what the problem of that would be, but what figures do you have to back this up? Any comment on the number of spenders vs hoarders seems to be based entirely on assumption at the minute.

Just to add my two cents to the conversation.... I don't know if there are any exact hard numbers on something like that.  There was an interesting article/interview I read the other day on coindesk though. The researcher talks about in their findings the majority of bitcoins aren't moving although it's impossible to know if that's because the are being hoarded, lost, or in cold storage (obviously it's a combination of all 3 but knowing what %'s each make up is probably not possible).

I would also argue though that it's just common sense...... it's dangerous to talk about only people you know and apply it to everyone, but all the bitcoin enthusiasts I know personally aren't spending many bitcoins and if they are it's a lot less than they were a 6 months to a year ago.  Also this isn't any sort of scentific data but I think just following the forums on here gives a trending picture of people wanting to hold bitcoin and wanting to buy as the price goes down, but not as many peopel talking about going out and buying things with them.

Again, none of what I just said is hard facts and data and you're right it's in assumption but IMO it's a pretty safe bet/assumption.  Of course I've been wrong before in life, but only once or twice  :)


edit:  sorry forgot the coindesk link , great article imo.... http://www.coindesk.com/researcher-tracks-bitcoin-movements-anonymity/

To be honest, it makes sense not to spend right now. In the grand scheme ot things there's not much to spend your coins on, and BTC is at a low at the moment and is essentially half what it was worth at its peak. So if you bought in at $1000-ish, it'd be silly to spend now as you'll be losing money, hold for a couple of months and you'll probably be back in profit.

I don't think it's right to say 'users' are at fault.

People have the right to do as they please with their BTC.

Although this is constantly debated I believe that we should let people enjoy Bitcoin as they so wish.

I agree with this. As a currency it is up to the people to decide what they do with it. Spend it or save it, buy legal or illegal goods, all are valid options.

What a nightmare for the inflation based world economy  ;) How can I buy more crap if I must wait for the value to rise? And how can i afford to buy crap if the value rise to fast? I think the value must settle in order to work.

I'm pretty sure that there's a lot of people out there who are both speculators and users. I am currently more speculator than user, but as soon as bitcoin starts to become accepted in places I spend Stirling, I'll become a user. You can't bash people for not using something that they're unable to use. I'll be really excited to buy my first bitcoin pint!

It will most likely settle eventually. Remember, BTC is still its early stages, and as with any new currency there's going to be wild swings as it gains its footing.


I'm sure there's a pub somewhere that accepts BTC. There's a pub in Oxford that takes FTC.

Yes I agree, in a lot of sceniros currently it doesnt make much sence to spend bitcoin. And that's why right now bitcoin is more of a commodity/investment than it is a practicle currency. If you bought high you might be wanting for the price to hopefully come back if youre going to spend, if you bought low you might want to watch your money increase.  The drastic swings in value makes it pretty unrealistic for most people to want to use btc as a curency. Using something as a currency you tend to need the value to stay consistent, otherwise people are left with regret one way or another (could've made money or they lost money.

Anyway, volatilty should decrease as the market gets larger. With the market being so small it doesn't take much for a big price swing to occur.

And you're right, with not many places accepting bitcoin still (although it's growing at a nice rate) it makes more sense to hold onto your bitcoins and wait for more adoption.

Your exactly right, no other money swings 50-200% a day, I can't possibly think of another currency currently in existence that has as much volatility as Bitcoin does.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD

I mean, you can't just for instance check all this paper based currency and see all the volatility there on many charts can you? And there certainly couldn't be a whole market out there that is dedicated to trading on this volatility right? :D

The Zimbabwean Dollar

I actually see it being more of an image issue.

Majority of people out there have heard that bitcoin is used for lots of illegal activities, if not that, then its loved by the anarchocapitalists and ultra libertarians who want to take down the government.

While these may have been some of the founding principles, like any rebellious teenager, bitcoin will need to, and is stepping into adulthood.
 

Yes

But the fixers have already taken steps to consolidate control, by concentrating on the "regulated" exchanges.

It is what they do.  It is who they are.

Surely believers can also be speculators.

I feel that this is a key point. The image of Bitcoin. A lot of people have stated that the Bitcoin with stabilise as it becomes more accepted however if the image is one that shows it as a trading commodity then new people leaning about the Botcoin will probably be attracted to this side of the Bitcoin. Yes an increase in Bitcoins supply will increase stability however if the rate of speculators also increase then it will remain unstable.

Going back to the image point. The possibilities of the Bitcoin are truly endless and the community is formed of an array of intelligence. For the new comers we should glamourise innovation instead of speculation. Because at the moment from a newbies perspective it's probably seems more beneficial to trade your Bitcoins rather than trading your goods.

Those are bad things?  :D And I think Bitcoin only has an image issue to those who are ignorant and naive.

Bitcoin is used a lot in trade. Just see the last reports from bitpay. They can also take care of volatility risks.