Bitcoin Forum

I won't be using a lot of TA.  Not an expert and it is not as effective with low vol markets like btc.  I have been able to stay above water trading BTCs, which is better than I'd say 90% of people that try to trade BTCs.  I will be making 3 analyses:

Bearish-bullish spectrum spans from -10 to 10, with 0 being neutral, 10 being full blow parabolic, -10 being crash to oblivion.

Price forecast

And news/ta analysis


12/27 - 12/29:

Current price: 720 btsp

Sentiment: -3

forecast: 780-550

-India's central bank taking early precaution to denounce bitcoin is bad news even if it is expected.

-Market has been a bit oversold last few days with China volume picking up.

-Could not break resistance of higher 700s... support could get pulled back near 700 and if broken flash crash may ocurr.

https://i.imgur.com/O3m2Zoq.png

This trend developing plus some setbacks may cause a longer decline.  Late January is critical time as China will be more focused on bitcoin.  Like I said though, all the exchanges are still following China.  This is sad, a fake exchange could be playing everyone like a fiddle, and though I hope is not true, it could send bitcoin back to 100s.  Though I doubt btcchina is faking it... their actual vol was very inflated bc of 0 fees and the influence of the fake exchanges.

I don't believe a word you say. Didn't you say a few days ago that "it's getting ugly on mtgox," predicting imminent crash? Well, it turned out that mtgox price ROSE up instead. You have no credibility with me.

Hey look I drew two lines and made a forcast ....  :P

Anyone can draw a few lines and make any forecast they want.
Anyway bitcoin isn't a stock and is volatile to bad or good news.
I don't see technical analysis working for bitcoin at the moment.

You are being result oriented.  I said it was getting ugly on Gox because of several triggers such as 1k wall coming down plus btcchina following GOX and stamp not all that bullish.  I showed the proof, and I was wrong.

In fact I want you to not only discredit me, but to make me look like shit.

Thats a very short-term chart.

In the longer term, the downtrend is losing steam. Dont forget also, that pre-christmas money can tend to be tight. My experience in business has always been that business slows to a crawl pre-christmas but picks up late January the following year, gaining momentum mid-January.

12/31 - 1/02:

Current price: 727 btsp

market strength sentiment: -3

forecast: 740-550

-not too many good news.  lots of desperate news such as such rich guy invests in bitcoin.  Well no shit, if I had a lot of money i'd invest a little in bitcoin too.

-low volume is what scares me.  Needs to consistently with high volume reach over 800 for new trend to start.  Current trend is just coasting along.  With the Jan 31 deadline looming, things aren't looking too promising.

Needs to break 780-800 with high volume for trend to break.

I think you will be surprised again!

Not in the short term.  Btsp doesn't process payments tomorrow and its actually going sideways and market is very bearish.

Cool, subscribed.

Cheers

i vehemently disagree (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=392713.msg4247429#msg4247429).

--arepo

I was told there was a chance that the price could increase but that there was also a chance that it could decrease.

1/4-1/6

forecast 740-900

sentiment -1

Not much happening.  Some new years rallying but still no high volume.

you've been a bear for most of this rally... i'm sure the forum would appreciate some accountability. what went wrong in your models?

I don't believe we are in total consolidation yet.  I think consolidation comes at around start of february.  I think towards end of Jan we will see the blunt of consolidation and China deadline closes.  Be prepared for a major run after that as we head into spring. 

Though I am not a full blown bear, I am atleast going 50/50 on coins/fiat right now.

1/16-1/31

300-999.. sentiment: -3

February will be better month for bitcoin as china is far behind.

Not too much exciting going on right now.  Bitcoin still a little overbought.

You must be joking!  :D That's too wide a margin you are giving yourself there in any situation. Also I believe you might want to up the high price at least to the ATH. In the last few days before 31 January when everyone sees that there is no sell-off the opposite will begin to happen.

The -3 sentiment has been holding steady.  Really is pretty bearish.  500-600 should be point of stability.

ALERT-  Late JAN early FEB could be boom or disaster.  Why?  Well, during many conference calls for NASDAQ companies, in the middle of an expected event, stocks would GO DOWN.  Well, it is my opinion that the China event where people should cash out before Jan 31 is similar.

I would definitely expect some fireworks around 29-FEB 1

how low do we go in your bear scenario

Well, I put down 999-300 when it was around 800.  I was very sure it wasn't going to go over 999 and I did do well when it hit around there.  But 300 was just a very low number i put down.

It most likely won't go below 500, even on 31st of Jan when China is exit rules are enforced. 

I don't believe my sentiment has ever been higher than -1... for the last month and half.

This has been working well for me, as it has yet to break over 1000 on bitstamp for awhile. 

double top @ 1200, and double top @ 1000 on stamp, makes the current sentiment -4. 

this is valid until Feb 3

thanks for this, I guess...
Did you factor in any of the China FUD? (31/01)

Yes, I factor in news and the effect of price on what news gets bloated and vice versa, as well as some technical analysis. 

The bearish/negative sentiment has been holding true and is shaping up on the charts.  This is short term though, and could end as soon as Feb 1-14.

He already said he didn't know a lot about technical analysis, makes me wonder why he's drawing lines on graphs then ....

Wow, this forecast was pretty spot on... lol i profited a bit from this!!!