Bitcoin Forum

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear.  also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k.  miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

It kinda feels like it, but somehow it is quicker, i dont expect a prolonged decline as back in 2014. Interest is higher now, there are more miners and profit margin for them is high, so i do not expect to see 2000 or 3000 btc as it woud be required to be equal as 2014. decline.

don't give up too soon, bitcoin had at least 3 more bubbles like these two in the past. the 2013 one is the most obvious one that you know without even looking at the charts.

when you start a topic like this first thing you need to do is to do some research first. right now i feel like you are repeating the same FUDs like a parrot. first with the lack of knowledge about previous bubbles but you claim you have "Studied the charts" now this.
you claim miners are already leaving (by the way there is no GPU miner, it is ASIC) if you take a look at the hashrate you can clearly see that it has been rising meaning more miners are coming in and right now it is at its highest hashrate of all time or ATH
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

although i had a different opinion about this, but i am starting to change my mind.

altcoins will continued to get dumped because they were pumped extremely thanks to all the last year bitcoin rallies.
but there will be other coins and more importantly newer coins which will come and get bigger pumps. so "difficulty" won't be on all of them.

altcoins rarely die. they will endure. of course you can define "death" as going down to less than 1 satoshi but they will still exist and be traded and be pumped an dumped even if they are worth 0.01 satoshi (1 e-10 bitcoin)

i wouldn't jump to make any bottom speculations because the drop is not normal and when it is not normal you can't predict what will happen.

I think that you can only partially agree with your arguments. You conducted a good study of the bitcoin course in previous years. However, one must take into account that our world has never developed in a circle, its development is spiraling. We are returning to the original position, but at a new, qualitative level. Therefore, it is not necessary that after taking off in price in the previous year, this year for bitcoin will be practically stagnant. Butcoin is already on a different level. Let's hope that bitcoin stagnation this year will not happen.

This is the reason why professional traders are always checking the chart history because in trading more often history repeats itself.
Also this is the reason why most people who invested in Bitcoin are always still positive/believes that Bitcoin will recover and will rise again.

I don't think so.
Now that the bull market has arrived, there is no need to do anything, all that needs to be done is to hold.

I agree, in fact I think it's a win for Bitcoin if this year maintains the consolidation and holds it's price at $6,000 - $8,000. This can prove to the world financial press that 2017 wasn't a farce or a fad, that Bitcoin is here to stay. It also proves to the next wave of investors that Bitcoin is worthy of their attention.

I am 80% agree with you OP. I feel the same pressure wayback 4years ago. Consensus and other supposed to be a good crypto stories should make the price go up. But it doesnt help. We cannot help Bitcoin to go up as it faithfully follows its previous charts. What we can do now is HOLD or hedge to USDT. Comparing bit by bit the BTC price of 2014 to 2018 theres a huge similarity. If you believe, be careful of making buy position with margins.

Yes, it kinda feels like 2014 again. We get a 2 year slump after a ATH and I think we might be in that correction or slump phase now. The price history is not a guaranteed indicator of what will happen in the future, but it explains the price behaviour we have now.

People who came in during 2017 will not understand this, so they will probably exit after a year of poor price performance <Weak hands>, but the old timers will ride this like a Pro Suffer and profit BIG in the end. ^smile^

It is almost the same as 2014 but the increasing and the decreasing stake are faster now than before. Bitcoin price drops fast and sometimes increase fast and we can't control it and no one will control it because that's bitcoin how it works. It is base on the buyer and the seller of it, I guess, the more we buy the more bitcoin will increase its price and the more we sell bitcoin then the more bitcoin it will drop.

to be honest, no!
things are not at all similar to the last bitcoin bubble. this time it wasn't a fake manipulation by one exchange like it was back in 2013, this was a large amount of real money coming in. you can't ignore all the adoption and we have already had the huge  correction that was needed after the bubble.


never ever in a million years do this!
USDT is one of the riskiest coins because it is centralized to a shady company that can be hacked or scam and run away like all the other exchanges did in the past (the same company runs Bitfinex).

So whats the moral of this story at all?

Are we going to sink to 4K USD or if we try to resist then we will be going back to ATH? What exactly everything has got to do with this scenario. I mean isn't that this year is already different than the others as we have the biggest dump in prices form ATH 19K USD which was never seen in the past at all.

I believe (referring to your statements) if network difficulty is falling then 101% more miners will jump in and then again they will help BTC to mine at increased hashing power. This cycle will keep repeating and there is no such thing "miners leaving the crypto". I guess it only points to imaginative specs nothing else.

it's not fud on the mining. i'm looking at current difficulty and current price/electricity/maintence. i'm sure there are now a lot of miners as #1 they were extremely profitable for the past year and #2 they have them. the number of new s9's being sold i would imagine is much lower. at 11 cents kwh an s9 is making around $3 a day. who is spending $1200 on a miner for $3 a day?

we also have the unresolved bitfinex / spoofing / tether situation and how much effect it had in 2017

alt coins have been following bitcoin so again my comment on gpu mining looks a lot like what i just said about the s9. an alt coin that suffers a 98-99% loss from today's price is dead. without funds how will the project further develop and be competitive? they become a gamblers coin at that point. there are what? 1500 alt coins or so? by the time you get to #100 on just marketcap you start getting into some shady projects. even popular penny coins like electronium. dude. they can't even make their phone app work correctly and this today is ranked at #100. it's also not any any of the major exchanges. there are 1400 worse than this

there is no moral. it was more of a thought out question. does it feel like 2014 again?

we also are no where near the biggest dump in prices. not even close. 2014 had an 80% retrace. the only thing that is "largest" is the sheer number of dollars per coin but that is kind of meaningless.

as i mentioned above, an s9 is making about $3 a day at 11kwh which is a standard price in the US. profits are pretty terrible right now if you're mining.

yea that's the thing. 2013 had the marcus and willey situation but 2017 had bitfinex and the spoofing, wash trading, tether etc.

i completely agree on adoption. i mean you have people from all walks of life interested in crypto right now

also agree on the correction. we had a 70% peak to trough on this one which is only 10 points shy of 2013 which was a MUCH bigger rally with a MUCH crazier nuclear blow up.

so really...i was spit balling with this question. what do people actually think of this year and even the current situation with good/great news being sold fairly hard. we still haven't reclaimed the 200SMA. we also are tracing out a wedge pattern if the 6k low holds. if it does and we keep making these lower highs you eventually get to the tip of a wedge which almost always equals a breakout one way or another. if the 6k low is broke then you have a decline situation with lower highs and lower lows. if 6 goes the 2014 situation starts looking reasonably likely. chart patterns often repeat themselves. we have already had a 70% retrace. 2014 was 80% that's how close things already are.

basically in my opinion it doesn't matter whether this looks or feels like 2014 or not. in the end the circumstances are different and the result will be different. just because some certain trend happened before it doesn't mean it can and will happen again. price may continue to go down even when you think it should stop because it is like previous time or it may stop here and reverse up and start the rise.

You also need to factor in the trustee selling thousands of coins in the 3rd week of December that also placed a huge selling pressure on the market. After this was done, many traders also followed suit, which resulted into a heavy crash from Dec-Jan. Kinda like a chain reaction, and that's one of the biggest reasons I see why we never really see the light of $20k.



The last part of this statement somewhat feels very unlikely today. Multiple times we have tried to go lower than $6000 but it seems that the market wouldn't permit such, though I'll admit there's still room of such a huge crash anytime. If the parabolic movement replicates 2014 and 2017, it could be another year or two of accumulation and quietness in the market. Many would surely let go and cause yet another crash but those who are silently accumulating will continue to do so and cause another hype for people to come back in.
 

I don't really see bitcoin crossing the $10k mark even within the end of this year. Many are too optimistic but don't understand that it's not possible yet given the market conditions. I'm expecting another stagnant year with many pullbacks and short-lived rises.

mmm

yeah...i'm with you on that

1. did that mt gox attorney seriously unload on an exchange? i mean...why? i'm relatively new but do have a background in securities and there is NO WAY i would ever unload hard if i was given thousands of bitcoins. if i do all the damn bots will follow me into the ground. oh no, especially considering he has quite a few more left. call the winklevoss twins. hell call anyone on the crypto top 10 list and make a deal OTC. even if you give them 10 points off spot it's a better deal than you will get on an exchange when all the bots start going to town on the technical pattern you single handedly create. the media says he has like 160,000 coins left. if 8k coins made this kind of impact it will take him years to unload at that rate. hell even a firesale at 30 points off spot solves his problem, pays all the creditors and a lot is left over. if that guy walked into consensus and said BTC for sale. 30% off gdax if you buy 50 million usd or more i bet quite a few hands would go up. seriously, what is he thinking ?

2. if 2014 does play out the majority of the fall is already over, next is the drift and if the 80% 2014 correction were to ring true again 4k would be the target with  4500-5000 being more likely as everyone would buy as we approach that number. a lot of BTC traders are very technically superstitious. like i have never met a group who puts more weight in elliot waves and fibs than crypto traders.

3. i'm mixed on the 10k comment you made. here's why. the 200sma. the longer we consolidate the easier it is to get on the right side of that. this market also has a thing for 3s. anyone else notice this in the patterns? we have had 2 failed 10k attempts in current history. if 7700 holds right now and we get a breakout a push through 10k has a strong possibility. last time the 200SMA was right at 10k and we bounced off both. if the next rally is a few weeks to a month out and we get on the right side of it one of two major hurdles is already out of the way. clearing 10 however is only a major accomplishment if it holds as support. if we run to 11,700 and get turned around which is highly likely on attempt one everyone will be watching to see if 10k holds or if we run back down under it to a support level in the 8s or 9s

That's what's up..


"Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

Yeah, that's what I tell people I talk to about crypto so it's not my fault if they lose all of their money..

Not in all cases right, like AUR.. Not gonna happen again..

But BTC.. The freaking chart is like a heartbeat under ever increasing magnification.. I definitely believe it will happen again..

How long? Don't know..
His heartbeat is at somewhat irregular intervals..

There was an article which I read yesterday which stated some technical calculation based on the graphs. Im not techie one to understand that but they clearly mentioned if bitcoin is going to drop below 8K USD (which is about to) then it could happen that we will run into the bearish trend and might hit the low rates of 6-7K USD.

However, they analysed the further data with 4 hours scale and stated that if we do cross exactly 8,600 USD rates then we will turn the trend into bull run.

Now either your post which is based on hypothesis of 2014 data OR this article based on fresh data of 2018 is going to be true. The question is which one is true and on what we should rely on.

if seen from the graph it is the current conditions the same as in the year 2104, but no one will know what the price at the end of year.jika seen from the volume and level of population then the end of this year will be stronger than 2014.

from a tech analyst point of view that's almost right on. the lower channel is about 7700usd though not 8k exactly. a drop on volume through 7700 would be seen as bearish with a first major target around 7k. people would then be watching to see if support holds or we drift or we break. as long as the price doesn't get close to 6k it's not  a major concern. if it does, especially on volume this being the 3rd visit of 6k makes penetration likely. under that who knows? 4k would be the 2014 correction numbers which honestly seems a bit ridiculous. this market isn't nearly as bad and 2017 didn't have nearly the run up 2013 did

on the bull side we ideally want to see something like a double bottom trace out and move up to 8200-8400 and from that point have a hard move that goes through 8900 which is the 100 day moving average, a move through 8600 which is the near term resistance almost guarantees 8900-9000. the 200 currently is at 10,200 but it falls everyday we are under it. if this sideways situation traces out for another 60 days it will be much easier to get on the right side of it for a run at 10

lastly. tinfoil hat time....which might not be that heavy of tinfoil. next gen miners are being developed. we all know bitmain is a major and i mean MAJOR player. it's in their interest to keep the price reasonable which keeps people away and the difficulty from rising too quickly. do i need to review the difficulty increase in the 2nd half of 2017? once they have mined a lot and sold a lot of the new miners price can be inflated which not only raises the cost of the miners but starts drawing people in. more and more people come in buying more and more coins and miners. bitmain and the other major players can sell into this strength AND sell their products for higher prices. this cycle can continue as long as they have the funds to manipulate price. it gets even more likely if you envision a syndicate or cartel of major players. remember....unregulated market here

Feels very much like it. Thanks to TS for sharing his views. Seems like it has some proven ground and not only speculation. Would give you a merit if only I had one)

yes it can be said today's crypto market situation is similar to 2014, but what needs to be seen is, the lowest crypto price this year especially bitcoin is still far above the average of 2014. It can be said that this is a form of polarization and tendency every year, that crypto early in the beginning year will always decline, but at the end of the year the price touched new records.

I was thinking the same thing. I have noticed that Bitcoin is moving completely in a cycle. and at the end of this cycle is drawing a similar graphics to the previous one.

2014 was a very unique year for Bitcoin and the community learned a lot from it. Saying that it feels like 2014 again is fake news. The power of Bitcoin now is better than ever. If it goes below 1000 then maybe it really feels like 2014.But we all know thaf it is not. The charts are always wrong.

Theoretically you may be correct in your analysis however practically I don't find it sound. Bitcoins has defied logic time and time again there is nothing as specified as you're liking to believe. Reason is bitcoins is more of a demand and supply and takes to lot of external cues to decide for self so don't really agree that this year might just be a consolidation year, bitcoins has always knows to race ahead in the latter half of the year so I think it'll race in the coming months, I'm really positive it shall race and reward everyone.

it is somewhat similar yet very different from 2014 in my opinion.
we have the big rise followed by a lot of hype and followed by a huge rise. and then we have the fall which was also huge (nearly 70% drop)  and then we have the consolidation phase. but the 2013-4 one took a much shorter time to have that rise then it took a much longer time to have that fall! so things aren't exactly the same.

I can understand that people feel like that, but if a similar scenario unfolds, then use it as the best possible opportunity you'll ever get to buy as many coins as possible.

The thing is that there aren't that many coins left to buy for the general public, and in case the market happens to decrease significantly (which I don't think will happen), large pockets will buy up even more coins.

Direct result is that with less coins in circulation, the market is far easier to increase. See it as a shakeout of weak hands before the next rally comes up. People shouldn't sell any of their coins.

Selling coins is like rewarding large players for their manipulation attempts. Instead, use it to buy more coins as I said, which is exactly what I'm doing.

I don't think you can make such an estimation using data of such a short period of time.

it's falling down :( reality is real :(

I agree with you, that might be same with 2014 but things move on very fast now compared to those years, this is maybe why bitcoin is so strong this year despite lots of bad news.

your study of graphics is pretty good, but I do not think bitcoin prices will go back to 2014, I do not want bitcoin prices to suffer a prolonged decline. And I think the miners have gained a lot of profits so I guess the miners will not never leave the y spelling.

same here

even if my original question does play out.....i'm anything but long term bearish. i see it more as an opportunity.

there is substantial evidence 2013 was absolutely manipulated and 2017 also was but the extent is much harder to measure with the bitfinex/tether fiasco.

the one thing that seems certain is larger players want to accumulate as many coins as possible and the reason why is blatantly obvious. there are only so many left and the total supply is likely to only be around 16m with so many having been lost over time. if satoshi was indeed Hal which is a very likely scenario that treasure trove is likely also lost, you know, the huge stash of coins that never moved.. the strong hands want to control the majority because at that point the price can be inflated to quite large sums allowing them to trickle sell a few coins at a time into the strength and having more money than any person in recorded history ever has.

oh there is no possible way we are returning to 2014 prices unless it's going to zero. when i said 2014 prices i was referring to peak to trough percentage decline. in 2013 we made a 1000 usd high and fell to a 220usd low. it's worth noting 2013 began at 20usd so even the lowest low was 11x higher than the start of that year. that equaled an 80% decline which would be BTC $4000 usd today which i personally don't think is likely because of the situation i have already mentioned. mostly. 2017 was no where near as bad as 2013 and neither was the price gain. 2013 over doubled the gain we saw in 2017 as measured by percentage. i cautiously think the 6k low we already have made is the actual low which is a 70% retrace from the 19,500 high we had in dec-2017. i find no evidence in the recorded history of crypto to argue an 80% matching decline would be likely besides the chart repeating itself. to me that's 5-10% odds of a direct 2014 repeat. it does however explain why some people speak of 4k btc as if it is going to happen. they are purely technical analysts who expect the chart to always repeat itself.....they are also wrong quite a lot

I also feel the same way it looks like it will happen like 2014 in the past ,will it stay that way in the next few months or it will be different ,I have not seen any news or good trends to be optimistic my feelings

there is a reasonable argument for it being different. the crypto recession of 2014 lasted about 18 months before the uptrend clearly resumed. it also took like a year to find the bottom.

this time the fall was MUCH faster and we not only have a more mature market, we simply have more people invested and adoption is far more widespread. back then mt gox was the main exchange. it would be similar to coinbase and gemini both blowing up today at the same time. nothing remotely close to that happened in 2017. we should know within the next 3-4 months if 6k was the bottom and if it was we #1 won't break it and #2 will likely begin an uptrend within 6 months if history is any example.

the mood as you point out is also quite bearish which is also quite often found at bottoms. people throw in the towel with despair and run. this is more times than not a good time to cost average in

It is good to make analysis from technical chart reading, but it is not always a case that price action is determined by only charts. As you specified MT gox, fundamental analysis might be the cause of the bull market you see on your chart.

Yes this is almost the same as 2014 but it is increasing and the decrease of pegs is now faster than before. Bitcoin prices go down quickly and sometimes increase quickly and you can not control it and no one will control it because that's how Bitcoin works. You can not ignore all adoptions and you already have the big corrections needed after the bubble.

I agree on you because as we can see that the bitcoin price frome the start is very much changes and now that it still in a lowest price, but i am going to hold it until i saw the price will become back to highest value.

That's what I'm thinking as well.

A lot of people have been saying that bitcoin will make its all time high in this year, which to me is just not possible. Bitcoin has had an extremely strong growth year last year, and as part of the cycle, this year will simply be mostly consolidating without much upwards momentum.

Bitcoin is not some kind of magical investment. It's a currency, and an asset. And any currency/asset will have its cycles, including bitcoin. If you observe carefully, usually bitcoin moves upwards in value drastically a year or so after halving, and then the bull market cools down after a few months to a year which is where we are right now. As I said, BTC's value has been cyclic in nature so far, and will probably continue to repeat its cycles.

Yes, it is somewhat similar to the situation as compared to that of 2014 but the dynamics have changed dramatically in last 4 years. The year 2017 was the year when Bitcoin and blockchain technology went mainstream and now the reason for the market fall is far different from that of 2014. However, I believe that it will help Bitcoin to recover faster in the coming months.

The values and the price depend on the popularity so we can't compare the values and popularity with the past we need to move on from that it is the best way for a bitcoin users.

History has the property of repeating itself

However, 2018 is not a repeat of 2015. This is a new, unexpected year for the entire crypto community