Bitcoin Forum

This is just speculation but it might well actually be happening.

As new money is being prepared by hedge funds they don't want to pay the prices Bitcoin is heading to. The very first money is definately in already - we know that. So someone might be trying to hold things steady with a wall.

But how long can they hold out against the persistent swell of interest?

Thoughts...  ;)

Huge spike in BDD on 12/22/2013: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

So yeah, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.  This could be extremely, extremely bullish news.

I'm starting to think this is more likely...

Someone is attempting to hold the price steady and keep it from going up.

That`s a good Chance to buy "cheap" and then HODL

@T.Stuart
could you explain how that
  works,please.

And its not happening on Stamp.

That's why Stamp has been pushing ahead now and again. Gox is holding Stamp up.

At the moment we do not have the arguably excessive (for that moment in time) interest in Bitcoin that led to the "bubble" a few weeks back (yes sorry to use the word bubble to those who disagree but you know what I mean).

But we do have persistent regular positive interest from Joe public nonetheless, with large scale investors getting ready according to recent news.

If someone wanted to hold the price up while they get their millions or even billions ready they would leave a big wall of Bitcoins for sale (because they already bought in with smaller money, which we know one or two hedge fund managers did do) close to the current market price. The thousands of Joe public buys are chipping away at the wall, but it's a wall and to bring it down will take time. Time during which the big money is being made ready to be used to purchase Bitcoins.

If the wall wasn't there the price would keep going up and the big investor would be annoyed at having to pay easily over $1000 say, when they could have got in at $800.

But history has shown that walls will come down. Think of the Berlin Wall etc. I digress of course, but I do feel a short "history of walls" thread brewing for the weekend.  ;)

Anyway, that's how it could work in principle.

So the price at the exchanges is kept down. To be able to do low priced off exchange deals, makes sense.

Needless to say hodling would make sense in this scenario.

Hodling makes sense any situation, when it comes to btc.

Thanks,T.Stuart

Yes this is possible.  Honestly I think the big money players manipulate markets more than the media lets on.  Supervision has gone down the tubes as the regulators are in bed with the big players.

So, wait...
How do we "know" hedge funds are already invested?
Maybe I missed a piece of news confirming this, the last I knew was that they were looking to get invested. Not that they already are.

Edit:
I guess you must be talking about Second market and the possibility of FIG entering  :-\

Very sorry to not be able to remember all the details but here is one example.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5e972afe-3cce-11e3-a8c4-00144feab7de.html#axzz2pFo2Kt00

Of course if you had a personal position in Bitcoin and you also managed a hedge fund, you might be tempted, say in an unregulated environment for example, to use your position to your advantage.  ;)

I would think the latest news about Fortress would start getting many people on Wall Street to personally invest in BTC regardless of what the fund is doing yet.  I guess I am surprised the price did not spike even more than it has.  The idea of a wall being put up to keep prices "stable" seems logical but it can only last so long.  I give it a couple weeks.  There will be more press that will come and as more people figure out that the price will indeed be going up they will jump in as soon as they can and we will see another big rally.  My prediction will that it will surpass the last one.

If a large fund is looking to take a long term position in Bitcoin will the fund managers be most likey to:

a) Enter the market Honest John style, buying the dips but with their large purchasing power invariably pushing the price increasingly higher, causing sell-off events that enriches Joe Public at the funds short term epxense.

b) Use their present Bitcoin position to facilitate a panic selling price crash, perhaps timing their dump to hit a low volume market on a bad news day, but culminating in them scooping up large volumes of cut price coins.

c) None of the above. Large funds won't seek to take a mammoth Bitcoin position via the exchanges, but rather arrange an OTC style private transaction(s).

@T.Stuart,
first I thought I got it (the wall issue)
but: who and how will someone profit from keeping the price at a certain Level? (besides Joe public who get "nice" prices)

One who wants to buy large quantities of coins in off exchange deals (I think they will agree on exchange price, which they are suppressing).

Thanks,what a rapid Response!
it makes sense
The only Explanation ?

Ahhh.  Why have I never thought of that?  It makes total sense.

Hopefully at some point all of the coins that are being sold off of the exchanges are sold. ;)  That is when we will really see some crazy things happen.

I would think that the miners, or whoever else is selling coins off of the exchanges, would at some point run out of them, or if they are still mining, the demand will outpace the mining process. 

Yeah I mentioned something similar a couple of weeks ago. If I had $1m in bitcoin and wanted another $10m, I'd use my bitcoins to prevent the price from rising too fast.

I hope it carries on for another week at the very least, I only have about 1/3 of the amount I want to be holding. But I feel a choo choo coming  :(

Gox volume: 5267
Stamp volume: 7494

How can you conclude that there is a "wall up" or anything like that with such low volumes? Of course it's not going anywhere with such low volume.

if anything, the visible bid side on gox has increased greatly lately to 42m USD, while asks reduced to 28k BTC. Ratio was about 35m / 35k just couple of weeks ago. the ratio is 1.9 now, it hits 2 and the steam will blow the top off that wall.

The shape was quite different 12 hours ago. Much more daunting ask side.

b + c.  Get the price down on the exchanges using questionable moves and then buy off exchange using the deflated exchange price as a negotiating tactic.

That's because you're not evil enough babe. 

So your advice is to get more evil? ;)

He is always hoping I will be more "naughty."  What was he thinking marrying a "nice" girl?  ;)

I do have a hard time understanding people or companies that manipulate others.  It is not in my nature, thankfully.  Hence why I just "buy and hold."  Perhaps only manipulators can understand how to speculate successfully.

This is a one-in-a-lifetime chance to get in ahead of the hedge funds, who are just starting to get in, with more lining up.

Hm you are right. Extra 40k BTC on the ask side now, for a 62k total. That is quite a wall there, somebody really needs the price to be below 1k :)

Do you know, is somebody plotting bid/ask ratio over time? Might be very interesting to look at.