Bitcoin Forum

Earlier this month Fundstrat Global Advisors made the prediction that the Consensus conference would generate a price spike for Bitcoin. Well, Tom Lee and crew were wrong...again.

The Consensus conference occurred for this week and was marked by a notable decline in the price of Bitcoin.

Maybe the false hype from Fundstrats merry pranksters caused a run up leading to the conference which could only fall apart once the big week arrived. It feels like every thing Tom Lee touches turns to fiat, at least he's consistent.

How can a conference boost the bitcoin price?I wasn`t even aware, that there`s  going to be a Consensus conference.I guess that no important decisions were made about the crypto future,during that meeting.
Tom Lee should move to another job.He is a horrible investment advisor.

It is hard to be a raging bull in a market full of stubborn bears. Also Tom Lee might already have filled his wallet and his clients' wallets very full or on leverage hehehe.

why do you think everyone agrees that it is impossible to make an accurate prediction when it comes to bitcoin? it is not about rise or fall, you can never predict bitcoin. so when you say it will rise or when you say it will drop you are basically making a weak prediction and when it comes to this current market where things are stranger than any other time and not clear which way it will go, then the predictions become even less meaningful.

Well, for me no matter how literate and experience you are in the cryptocurrency you can never trust fully any predictions coming from the experts you csn make references into it but you dont have to fully believe everything thay they tell will happen just because they call themselves experts. Actually nobody is an expert in the cryptocurrency world there are only pioneers and experienced people who have been in this industry since the beggining but even that is not a guarantee that they can predict what will happened in the future.  So the best thing to do is just listen and learn and be wise in you crypto investments.

Well Tom Lee is also just a human being and not some kind of a magician with a crystal ball who knows everything. So his prediction was wrong. I couldn't care less to be honest.
And where did his announcement from may 7th caused a run up?
We started dropping from 9950 already two days before his prediction. And after that the price decline continued. So Lee wasn't responsible for anything.
He was just wrong. That's it.

Yeah, no cryptocurrency or even other comodity is predictable.
So if you are buying and selling based on predictions go ask some gipsy fortuneteller :)

Some people think they have a crystal ball to foresee the future. They base their prediction on the basis of what they expect rather than what the actual facts are. Whether they were right once in the past, it doesn’t mean they will be in the future, especially when accurate timing is the point.

being wrong is not a new thing when it comes to speculating about bitcoin price in near future. being unreasonably wrong is another thing though and I wouldn't call this speculation an unreasonable one. it was actually a safe speculation saying that this consensus conference could possibly lead to a rally even a small one and he was not the only one with this speculation. it is not like he speculated bitcoin is going to $1 million because of it this or drop to $1000 like so many others are doing...

It was an assumption that the price would rally during the consensus conference and i really hoped to see a small rally but the market went the opposite direction, there are many positives that happened, we will have an alternative to the shady tether and there wont be any negative intervention from the SEC in the development of the market, i am not bullish in the short term but i expect a good rally by the end of this year.

Price of BTC is always depending on bad/good news, nothing new in that - but this time that did not work. Personally, I did not expect nothing spectacular regarding price, and by what Lee is saying after his prediction is go wrong, that main reason for that is : "Lee said the crypto industry still needs more clarity from regulators like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as increased adoption by traditional companies."

So there is nothing new he say and we do not know, his prediction was based on growth in attendance, new interest and media. It is not so easy to move market up these days, even with a such big crypto event. I think it is not good to look serious at such speculations, especially on those short-terms.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/crypto-bull-tom-lee-owns-up-after-bitcoin-prediction-goes-awry

Not surprising, especially coming from Tom Lee and Fundstrat. I've said it before, Tom Lee and his crew release those kind of bullish statements every now and then to keep their clients happy and to get people into FOMO mode because of X or Y reason, this time they did it before an event that ended up being nothing more than a networking conference instead of an actual event that matters to the cryptocurrency world. So yeah, once again the Wall Street experts failed at predicting the market movements, nothing new.

With so much predictions came from fundstrat, they are pushy with the price and that's how they encourage investors. But still they failed, most of the predictions are failing and the fuds are the ones emerging.
They are not losing anything when the fundstrat army predicts but only their credibility.  :-\

There was a lot of hype for the conference. My #1 buyer last week was hinging on it. I am also betting all-in on a rally this summer.

If you toss a coin to make a prediction, you probably would get it right more number of times. It is really difficult to get a grip on Bitcoin's price jumping around in the short-term.
These conferences are in case for the believers. They might generate a little bit of hype and media attention, but I do not think it is enough to get more investors in and trigger a rally.

Ha, exactly!

On the face of it, I can see some logic in a major conference bringing positive press and therefore new attention and interest to bitcoin as an investment, but for it to happen it requires a lot of additional things to happen.

First, the conference has to be the forum for some incredible new news to be to released.

Second, the mainstream press has to be around to cover the news and highlight it in their publications.

Third, the general public has to care about these new developments...and it has to expand beyond the group of people that are already invested in bitcoin.

Tom Lee can't predict that any of things would happen, therefore his predictions are baseless or, in more technical terms...full of shit.

Which just goes to prove what we've been saying over and over again: these experts and analysts can only do so much to use what they think they've learnt from traditional markets and apply them to Bitcoin. You can predict all you want, but the fact is, Bitcoin's only consistencies have been its volatilities and its inexplicable reactions or lack thereof to events, threats and opportunities. It's still an extremely immature market yet to reach true adoption, and is still vulnerable to manipulations by the few.

But that doesn't mean he should lose his job. Neither does it mean people who got it right should get promotions. It's simply further evidence that you can't predict where Bitcoin is headed with any certainty.

Really? Was there any news about it or are you talking about hype within the four walls of the conference building? I've seen zero news on the 2 day conference.

I'd love to hear about the latest and greatest talk coming out of the conference but if the crypto news media isn't interested in covering it, why would the mainstream financial news care to cover it!?


Actually, if you toss a coin to make a prediction you'll be right 50% of the time, not "more number of times".

Wrong or not he is getting the word about crypto currency to the people out there. It is a plus to have people like him.
I like some of his analysis on crypto scene.

Well, this is why I don't believe in an expert about the price of btC or any other cryptocurrency . Most times, they say the prediction that might feels and result in a hustle decision like rushing to selling off when thr price is low. Now, its not as if all expert are not good but with what they are doing. It seems that the  idea may talk about investing in yiu.

I like how this market doesn't care about anyone's perspective, and it has been like that since the very beginning. Long term speaking it's a more than an easy bet to predict that there will be growth, but short term speaking there is nothing that you can hold on to. It's just you guessing that something might happen, where at the end you're either right or wrong. That unpredictability of this market is something that makes you as noob just as smart as a knowledgeable investor in the very short term -- it's actually gambling, but people seem to like it so it's all good I guess....

Most expert predictions are really not worth it. They are good at predicting the price of. Cryptocurrency and it fall,  we end up seeing that the price is not really same as  predicted. Some experts have end up making people loss their savings or to miss their investment opportunities. It's not that one shouldn't listen to bitcoin experts but you need to be carefull in trusting them.  

it's just a prediction, we as users do not trust this kind of thing. predictions are just predictions, can be accurate and misses. believe in your own stance.

It's difficult to predict the movement of bitcoin as the price is high enough to manipulate. Although some bad news could distract the mood of every investors but in a due time it will bounce back. Investors nowadays are now more mature and knows the importance of being patient.

Will Tom Lee become a case of the boy who cried wolf? I reckon his next bullish prediction might be ignored or assumed wrong again, but by that time it might it be the real one hehehe.

Honestly, the impact on price that these specific events hold on bitcoin pricing is extremely overrated. Just like the time when Tom Lee said something similar about Tax Day. Even though there the price of BTC may change in the positive direction on that particular day, it may be completely due to something else, or simply due to hype that will last very few days.

I didn't see much that would have come into fruition just because a major conference is held, without any prior knowledge of what would happen during the conference. If major news came out of it, then yeah, prices can be positively impacted, but again, only temporarily.

I wonder if Tom Lee is going long on bitcoin on margin, then using his public voice to hype up the markets in order to gain rewards. Just like how the opposite happens with shorters.

I can also predict the future price, why should I believe in someone predictions about the future price of bitcoin? I will invest according to my own well. I don’t believe in predictions. Many predictors do not have knowledge about the market and people trend and gave their statement about the future price which are always false and against the going facts.

At least he can see the results of his speculation now, hehe
Tom Lee is just too dedicated on the charts so too confident to conclude that BTC will go up now, the fact is not.

yes that's right which never assume it will happen 'cause it's just predictions and it's still depends on our selves if we want to rely on it , so to prevent such issue we must build our own predictions as well , or keep monitoring the marke instead to avoid regrets and blaming others 'cause no one's perfect guys.  

Well more often than not these predictions go well off target and it's happened over and over so many times already that i don't even try to try think about where people base them. I guess i prefer to stand by my own target to avoid regret and disappointment

Yeah and I think that all prediction from August 2017 till date are wrong and no one predicted the right or the nearest price. I never believe in predictions because I found these opposite of the currency situation of bitcoin. Therefore I suggest that one should keen observe the market and study the market trend and then invest their money to avoid such loses.

I wonder why you guys even listen to all these bullshit predictors. This is bitcoin market and using all those fundamentals to think that bitcoin would just start increasing all of a sudden like that is absurd. They are always trying to use their position to want to generate some hype, hoping they may actually get to see the market hit some pretty huge level. They are always going to be wrong with their baseless predictions as far as I am concerned.

Yeah, as they are apparently looking for a rally that would make them to sell off and generate some good profit for them. Bunch of guys who are just here for the sake of the profit they want to make anyway and not because they actually care about if the industry ends up growing or not.

People like that always end up wrong anyway. Nevertheless, this is bitcoin and even TA does not give you a good prediction let alone, FA! The market is just there doing its thing.