Bitcoin Forum

Midterm Downtrend - January will possibly be a rather flat / slightly declining month given historical precedent with patterns very closely repeating themselves and the Chinese New Year introducing a very high level of uncertainty at the end.  :-\

http://oi39.tinypic.com/2uf6kab.jpg

full image link here: http://postimg.org/image/ks84th8j3/

i really doubt we will go down again, or if you can compare it this easily with april. Everyone was expecting an drop at regular newyear and is expecting the chinese newyear, so dont think it will be this big of an event.
Besides, there is alot of good news atm with more companies accepting bitcoins, which boosts the price.

+1 Those who base everything on last summer are not factoring in what is happening right now. Sounds obvious but it's true.

So...we are in the middle of the upswings...when we could buy cheap coins?

OP, sorry, really, but that's some of the sloppiest TA I've seen in here for a while. And that's saying something, considering that drawing a line through a log price chart is considered sophisticated around here...

Your point is basically that we have a price/average crossover similar to April/May, and a vague resemblance of the price chart, which you get by eyeballing... yeah, that's not good enough I'm afraid.

Just from the top of my head: the post crash consolidation phase is already lasting 50% longer than in April/May (then: ~2 weeks before the decline, now ~3 weeks). We have 3 green weekly candles atm, in fact. Another obvious difference: speed of the "recovery" -- significantly more controlled/slower right now, which I take as a good sign.

In any case, I'm personally undecided whether I think the correction is over or not, but your argument above is comparably weak.

I am not sleeping in BTC until the China thing is sorted out.

Just riding small daily waves in the meantime.

Bwahhhhh!

This isn't what I want to happen to Bitcoin in the Midterm, therefore this is the worst TA I have ever seen and the OP is making the mistake of confusing the past with the present. Things have changed....the Winklevoss, Wall Street, Overstock..... I don't want to see a drop off in the value of my BTC holdings, therefore Bitcoin can only go up midterm, anyone who says otherwise is an idiot.

 ::)


Me also! Still turning what is quite frankly by most peoples measures, a bloody good wage trading Bitcoin but no way am I ever going to sleep with any coin in my wallet. Even if only a small proportion of Chinese held BTC ends up hitting the market, it will still count as a significant sell-off event. Either Bitcoin continues in China in some officially permitted capacity or another sell-off event will occur.

I think the scenario of the OP is possible:
Think about it: most big whales who were looking to sell some did not had enough time to do so.
If we look at the number of days BTC was above 1000 USD, it is not much. The number is below 10 (5 full days at bitstamp for example)

Now we see slower growth in the price, but there will be a downwards pressure when we are reaching >950. Maybe we wil go above 1000, but it will generate a lot of people selling some BTC who were to greedy in november/december.

(Also do not forget a lot of people are short on cash after the holidays)

I think a downtrend is possible to go to 500 maybe 400 in a few months time.

Believe me, the really big whales who became so due to being the early adopters and those who have been working on the tech and are in because they love it, are in for the long term - and I'm willing to wager that the ones who want to be are all rich in dollars already thanks to Bitcoin.

Do you think that people with a lot of Bitcoins just dump them all at once? Again, I'll wager that the majority actually take the time to consider not crashing the market when they make some dollars, and they sell Bitcoins in smaller lumps.

Of course one or two might actually want to crash the market. But I believe these kind of traders are becoming worried that their tactics might not have the desired effect (due to the resilience and experience of so many Bitcoin enthusiasts) and therefore they lose money if they get it wrong. There are also bigger whales looking to prey on smaller ones!

I just don't buy the "watch out for all those whales dumping" panic stories at all. In any case, if everyone thought like that the market would never evolve.

PS but of course there is the Whale Temple there if you wish to communicate with them directly!  :D

Where do I say dumping?
I say selling, downwards pressure. I do not expect a crash, just a slow downtrend...

Please excuse me. You are right. You did not say dumping. My mistake.

But 1000s and 1000s of Bitcoins are being sold in the current price range every day.

And if you look at what is happening over the past couple of weeks, new fiat money is coming in and now that the holidays are over and banks and exchanges are properly back to business, I believe this will increase quite significantly in the weeks to come.

We will see how the dynamic plays out!

Sorry again for leaping to conclusions about what you were saying!  :)

no problem mate :)

I just think, now the hype is a little less, the new money will slow down and there will be a downwards pressure when we approache the previous ATH.

Let wait and see what will happen :) I will sell some when I see signs of this new downtrend, but not much, maybe 10%-20% of my stash.


edit: and try to buy back in at a lower price off cource! ;)

You really do come away with some quite rosy glittering generalisations. At least when they serve a bullish or refute a bullish case.

Go back to 2010, 2011, 2012 even, anyone with a modest amount of money could have become a Bitcoin whale.




In the past month, I have traded bucketloads of Bitcoins, with several hundred thousand USD worth of trade volume, yet my total balance on Bitstamp is never much more than $20K.

You do realise that most Bitcoin trade is just that...trade. Passing coins backwards and forwards as people try to ride waves up and avoid waves down.

Yeah but how many random people really did become whales eh? And how many of these people are completely irresponsible with they way they cash out their Bitcoins? These are indeed good questions and I have thought about them. Do you know what keeps coming back to me? If it was really such a big problem the market would have crashed out of existence by now. But that has not happened, and Bitcoin is proving itself one tough old bird (or young chick perhaps  :) ). I think this says something about the combined psychology of those involved. Bitcoin is getting bigger and bigger than any one player.


Fine, but I'm just saying that IMO (and it's not hard to see) the trend is up. That's why you are on board now isn't it?  ;)

comparing the general shapes of these two patterns is far more insightful than you probably realize, but your actual analysis and conclusions are definitely too sloppy to be rigorous.

--arepo

You hit it right on the head dude! Nice analysis and TA!

give him a break :P he saw the fractal, he just didn't pay enough attention to mark the right reference points...