Bitcoin Forum

Here is what might happen with China, their goverment and the implications on Bitcoins longterm survivability:

On Jan. 31st BTCChina has the withdraw deadline for money on the exchange, and there are signs that they are trying to circumvent that using Voucher auctions.
They officials are probably right now keeping a close eye on the companies exchanges and if they take the actions required of them. So far none of them seem to take it serious enough and they seem to go double down.
The Govt will then probably not only close any other accounts associated (like this Hunobi CEOs private bank account) but also seize the assets.
Next on the list are Bitcoin payment processors, like Bitpay, which given recent statement are a prime candidate for not only a forbidden business but also the great firewall. E-commerce using Bitcoin becomes next to impossible in China at this point.

This then sets the precedent for much more goverment intervention into Bitcoin, and once the chair-poopers get wind of how interconnected the Bitcoin infrastructure really is, how easy it is to set up a money laundering operation mining Bitcoins commercail Bitcoin miners are next, as well as ASIC producers.
The winners of this venture will be companies like BFL which based in the USA are out of reach from China, but given their attitude and past history they might decide to just run with the money gained from their quasi monopoly.
And after a fraud of this magnitude nobody will touch Bitcoin again with a long stick, even in the US.
But also without some chain reaction of this sort Chinese legislation is taken not nearly serious enough. The risk associated with Chinese exchanges trying to operate in this kind of legal gray area is tremendous.

The point is, it is a reckless gamble made because of the greed and pride of the exchange operators on behalf of every other Bitcoiner.

Nothing is going to happen or if happens anything china will be losing their tax and even there money will be laundered to other country to invest in bitcoin.

I might be wrong, but isn't BFL as well as KNC have their chips printed in China too? Though it is extremely far fetched that chinese would dare to ban something in the chip industry - this precedent will have destructive effects on the real multi-billion semiconductor economy - so no, ASIC producers are fine. As for bank regulations, no idea, but I think HongKong would happily pick up every ball that China drops. We'll see soon. Right now, China's semi-ban and India's complete ban are both factored in and don't affect price anymore, so China has to come up with something very crazy to move the price again.

Seriously, WTF are you talking about!?

CNY transactions still account for more than half of all Bitcoin exchange volume. Apparently, BTC is being kept going in China by legal grey area practices such as 'vouchers' or depositing money direct into exchange CEO's bank account.

If the Chinese government are serious about restricting Bitcoin in their economy, do you think that come the 31st January 2014, they are just going to stand around with their fingers in their mouths saying, "durrrrrh, we never thought of vouchers or private bank deposits, oh well, we have been outsmarted, it's a fair cop"!?

Who knows what is to happen with China. If it were 100% set in stone, then CNY BTC would be a tiny proportion of the Bitcoin market and there wouldn't be any need for pompous self-reassuring remarks from the likes of yourself, telling us all that China has already been priced into market.

But I am here to tell you that it hasn't, and that there exists still a lot of uncertainty about which way things are going to go, not least of all in China, otherwise why the hell are they still all trading a commodity that there government has meant to have just given a death sentence to?

 

I really wish I could give a death sentence to all news about China but I guess that is just not realistic.  :)

Here is the REAL worst case scenario for China:

- All deposits / withdrawals disabled to exchanges
- People must trade bitcoins in the black market

At this point I'd say it's unlikely, but still a possibility.  Considering the swift action taken against third party processors, it seems that the government is okay with the current deposit methods being used by Huobi / Fxbtc / etc.  Interestingly, the new deposits are nearly instantaneous in the daytime, and very slow at night.  This is a big improvement from 2 weeks ago, when deposits took up to 24 hours.

We'll see what happens.  The PBOC has announced that they do not wish bitcoins purchased in China to leave the country, which is completely impossible to enforce.  It could be that they are experimenting right now with regulation, but if they determine through these experiments that their goals are impossible to accomplish, they could quite easily just decide to pull the plug.  China's government has no obvious vested interest in Bitcoin. 

I think that this could go either way, but that prices might fluctuate quite wildly the last week of january.

-Either the chineese flock to BTC before it's regulated as a storage of wealth or to gamble, -or they pull out to be safe. The biggest players are likely to be the ones who have most to benefit from showing loyalty to the party by getting out of BTC. (They are more likely to have orther ventures that requires goodwill, while BTC is only one lost opertunity.)

I think the most likely end result is a (possibly big) drop close to the 31'st and then a rebound to a higher and somewhat stable level as the dust settles.

What is your source for this?

But forget about the China ban. People will continue to trade person to person and/or keep their bitcoins.

Omg i dont like these posts... so you think when china really bans bitcoin that there would be enough people trading BTC in the black market that could sustain current demand?

I really dont think so... realize please people already that bitcoin are not drugs, and when some gov. really BANs bitcoin and starts lawfully and little bit agressively persuading this BAN, then majority of population would simply fuck bitcoin off, because its not worth the trouble... (!). Really do you live in the real world, or in a stupid world of your twisted ideals?

Are you serious?

If you are trading or investing in Bitcoins, u must surely know plentiful sources for this  ???

Right?

and you, what do you think? That all chinese are waiting to take action only on the last week of january ?

So show us some proof that chinese transactions are still more than half of all bitcoins. A lot of people saying that but no one proves it.

NO, why don't you show the source??? Don't tell me that your source is fiatleak.com data

I wish that as well. The China whining goes on and on for over 3 weeks now, go read some old topics instead of making new ones, OP.

It probably is, what else can you check?
Oh wait, secret (and manipulated) exchanges data!
Sure he has access to that

www.btckan.com/price

LOLOLOL

hahahaha

 ;D :D ;) :)

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h

This list is based on trust that the exchanges are telling the truth about their trade volumes. So it's not proof.

the whole bitcoin market depends on the numbers presented (and fulfilled) by the exchanges. if you dont trust their numbers, what kind of proof are you looking for?

is there a special reason to doubt the exchanges on their volume (and maybe a proof)?

He can go to Bitcoinwisdom and check the trades and volumes on the main CNY exchanges as they are happening. Is that good enough for y'all?

And if the likes of OKCoin and Huobi are manipulating trades or trade data then that would be an even bigger fkn horror story for those interested in a high Bitcoin prices, cos that would mean the price has been getting pushed up on the back of fraudulent transactions. If that came out, the market would have to admit that everyone has been tricked into paying well over the odds for their Bitcoins.

That would be like the reverse effect of the bullion banks admitting they only ever have around 4% of the physical gold to back the paper certificates that they issued.

Oh yeah, and I don't give a damn what anyone says about USD trading having decoupled from China, cos everytime I check, China still seems to be leading the way, especially when some kind of meaningful move is concerned.

No because this can also be manipulated. In the end there's no way to prove.


Bitcoin doesn't depend on what the chinese government say.. It's much bigger than that

You can ask one simple question:

Can their numbers be manipulated? Yes or No?

If the answer is Yes, then their numbers can't never be proof.

The same "Yes" answer is the proof you asked to doubt the exchanges on their volume data. Something that can be manipulated results in doubt right?

Can you point us to some statistics in the Bitcoin world which you are 100% sure are not manipulated?

its very clear to anyone not in euphoria that the chinese are pumping BTC to unload it on you guys soon

you will be the last bagholders of BTC

anyone who is risking more than they can afford to lose should get out now

Incredible figure of state believers here. State terror was the bitcoin booster from the beginning, and now it should be its death?
That is the strange logic of the 'prohibition-works!'-believers.

Chinese exchanges are FOLLOWING the leads of the Western exchanges. Their volume is quite low too compared to MtGox, BitStamp, BTC-E. So, I really don't think they are in any shape or form to have to ability to pump and dump. The rise in bitcoin price is an organic nature: market is anticipating the Wallstreet entry, the Christmas Syndrome (where bitcoiners tell their aunts, uncles, nephews/nieces/whatnots and they all to buy in), etc... China syndrome is over, they may have led the world to where bitcoin is now but their time is past, it's back to the US and the Europeans to lead.

Agree 100%

That said, the biggest problem facing the Bitcoin community outside China is psychological. As a Chinese contributor said the other day, if the Chinese get excited again and the price rises too quickly, the government might get twitchy. But as far as I can tell everyone is getting excited! This could mean further steps to dampen Bitcoin in China.

The key thing to remember and to explain to others is that at this stage the effect outside China is purely psychological, not realistic. But I am optimistic. I think we will soon break the previous ATH, strongly associated with China, and at this point it will become more and more clear that Bitcoin does not need China for plenty of growth in the foreseeable future.

How do you get that Chinese exchange's volumes are low compared to gox, stamp, etc?

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h
http://btckan.com/price