Bitcoin Forum

does anyone notice there are generally less coins to sell due to mass hodl and more people entering all the time?

Yep, coin hodlers are more and more like
http://www.alchemyengland.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Gollum-Ring.jpg

The number of coins available on the exchanges has been decreasing for over a year now. Also, the few coins that are left are spread over more exchanges.

Also, larger BTC holders looking to sell will get a better price when selling off the markets to funds like the BIT, this will happen more and more.

Overall I'd guess the supply that's for sale has gotten slimmer, but it's harder to determine the supply than in the past and it will keep getting harder than in the past.

also a crunch in one exchange will make the dumb bots (not all are dumb) move in others roughly proportionally

one of the dumb bots is coinbase though...  soon they will have to keep wide spreads all the time for protection (not just when it triggers)

The price will have to rise many many times over if people want my coins.

The Chinese government will soon make them shit their pants and panic sell.

I think your typical chinese investor already knows which way the wind is blowing. Maybe some of them are looking to profit before it's too late, but I believe many of them are going to stay in whatever the gov says. Loyalty to the Party only goes so far.

Last crash (18 dec) most of the panic selling was Western instigated and the peak of the fall was when Europe started trading. On bitcoin.de you could have even caught a coin for about 125 usd at the time.

but its fallen and risen now so many times except the rise ends up 5 ~ 10 x the high before the last crash. Eventually people are going to get inured to this.

My Precious! O my Precious!

That's exactly the point of hodling. Prices rise due to higher demand than supply.

Classic.  But so true.  Newer investors are generally holders, not users or traders.  Especially with the new trusts being set up, they have mandatory holding periods, so once you're in you're in for several months at the min

you forgot the whole NEED part

hodling amplifies the price but the base value comes from its usability

This rally is certainly being fueled by a lack of supply on exchanges rather than any particularly strong demand/volume on the exchanges. If you were to see this type of depth/volume last year, it would be a joke and you'd know for sure a crash was coming. However the system is different now. It remains to be determined whether this is simply due to us holding or whether its due to large acculumation off-exchange by hedge funds, businesses, and such. With all those bit coin days destroyed one could theorize a huge purchase of XXX,XXX coins occurred by fortress or something which averted an entire bear market worth of coins on exchanges. However, there is no proof and nobody knows for sure. It could all be psychology and a self fulfilling prophecy.

Not selling until we're at least $40k / BTC.... anyone want to make an offer?

With very low volume on exchange, the price movements become very erratic.

That is probably due to the fact that the price has gone up around 100x in the past year.

In early 2013 when coins were around $10 if you wanted to trade lets say $50K you would need 5,000 BTC. But now that coins are around $1000 to trade $50K you only would need about 50 BTC.

The exchanges are used for active trading, not long term storage. Long term coins withdrawn out of the exchanges. So it makes sense that as the price goes up the market needs less BTC for trading purposes. That said the dollar value in the exchanges has definitely gone up....

There is no incentive for anyone to sell, why would anyone sell Bitcoin when it's about to witness it's greatest year ever ? The fear of Bitcoin dying/failing has gone, people have never been as confident about Bitcoin as ever before.

I'm noticing a trend where every time there is a crash, some agency sneaks in, accumulates a ton of coins and never sells. After the crash, this leaves the books having even  more USD and less btc than before the crash. This trend started with silk road.

This!

Keep with this hodl bullshit and you are sure to have no fiat when you'll need it.

well yes but as long as you properly populate the the attributes of its usability, being able to send, $136 million, or some other large amount, to any one anytime for well in that case free, across any border, oh and buy a coffee if you want. These attributes allow it to replace at least half of all banks, now add up the value of just that. Infrastructure, IT, wages, property etc etc. You have your x Trillion right there....alone

why many of "we" only invest what we can loose?


I can buy goods and services in BTC. It just means Hodl from fiat.

Nobody sane will pay more for BTC off exchange. Whales, funds, etc. especially
Selling = using = adoption = greatest year ever.
Hodling = not using = modest adoption = same or little better than last year (at best), but with even more volatility (and that's bad longterm)

I'm not so sure it its BTC has capital "S" store of value (PeerCoin is likely better at this though). This does not rely on adoption of coffee shops.

Also volatility is not bad neither are speculators.

+1

Didn't that huge spike coincide with 400k oldish coins moving from a single address? What makes you think a single holder would dump 400k coins on exchanges? Maybe I am misinterpreting.

Volatility is real bad. At least for regular people and businesses. But hey, that's not important, like future of btc depends on them...

Volatility is bad for merchants wanting to use everyday in their coffee shops, bookstores, etc.  Volatility is bad for someone wanting to use this online purchases, ie, Overstock.com.  Will they be adjusting the price daily?  Hourly?  Etc.

Is it great for speculators though.

Volatility is part of the system. An intended part of the system. Get over it. No, excuse me. Get the fuck over it already.

(also nobody who accepts bitcoin as payment cares thanks to bitpay so really, shut up)

lololol. Bitpay.

I can get over it cause i'm trader, but others won't. And that'll probably kill btc (as a currency and something revolutionary).
Btw. if it's intended part of the system, it's a bug, not feature

Ideally, I think, merchants accepting bitcoin ≠ merchants dumping bitcoin for fiat.

I don't disagree. To say it will kill bitcoin is retarded though.

And who said it will kill btc?!

You do know that btc now isn't really a currency (and revolutionary, yet, but has potential), but store of value?!

I don't remember  400k except some transfer someone pointed out from 2011 to scare people. What we deduced was based on the days destroyed, it would have to be at least 96,000 coins.

Whatever the amount is, it could be some ASIC mining firm that wanted to cash out their investment or pay invoices on equipment parts. Who knows.

These are the same.

When adoption is massive, it won't move much.  By then, it will be stable enough for business use.

It already is revolutionary. You haven't seen anything like this before, have you? If it's a good store of value then it is also a good currency. I use bitcoin to buy shit all the time. Any merchant that can hold for just a while will most likely be happy with their returns.


Or the Fortress fund?

Holding = less bitcoin available = use of smaller BTC denomination (like mBTC) = purchase power of bitcoin going up

When there are enough merchants who adopt bitcoin and give discounts people will use it because it's simple and much easier. It has value as a payment system, that's one of the reasons people are adopting. Holding will not negate the value.

Oh yeah, I remembered wrong. Apparently I was remembering the 400k from here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381045.msg4092625#msg4092625

No it's not. Concept is revolutionary, but usage isn't. It's nowhere near it's potential.
Also gold and diamonds are good store of value, and you can buy shit with it, but it's not currency...

Denomination doesn't matter, hodling is bad for bitcoin (longterm, and good for hodlers, short to midterm).

yes but fiat currency isn't really currency either.

???  Wouldn't there be MORE coins to sell if everyone was hodling?? In my opinion, there's less coins to BUY because no one wants to give them up.

bitpay is great but if everyone hitches the future adoption on these payment middlemen the big boys of visa/mastercard can just lower their rates to the same or a few cents more and adapt.. is bitcoin just going to be a napster that creates an iTunes?

the real killer app is if we do not need bitpay but are stronger because it is an option not a requirement

No, fiat is a currency but it's not (good) store of value (same goes for Fiat cars ;D)

No, fiat looks like  a currency, but it has absolute protectionism and absolute abuse by the state issuers (at least until hyperinflation) until BTC and CC's came along.

when you have open competition of currencies, i.e. by any entity, then you have currency.

It's a necessary intermediate stage.  If people feel comfortable that they can use their bitcoins everywhere, this will increase usage and the market cap, which should dampen volatility.  After that, some salaries and supply chains might get paid in bitcoin, which I think will have the greatest stabilizing effect.

Indeed, it's a chain effect that has already started.

All these VC backed Bitcoin that pay everything in BTC are the first link. But once BTC becomes even more scarce, the acceleration will only be faster.

People talk about the past but it is very, very important to understand it correctly.

The shape of the bubbles gives an indication, but understand the whole picture.

The bubbles are moving closer together becuase confidence has been growing. This is leading to the S-curve or whatever you want to call it - when confidence becomes a loop alongside new users, new wallets, new adoption, etc.

Think about it. Comparing each last bubble to this one individually without seeing the bigger trend is insane. How many essentially chance events changed things in the past? Things were far, far less certain for BTC than they are now. Silk Road, hacks, forks, dodgy exchanges (still are a few but many are rushing to get their acts together :D)... a year or two ago America was talking about BANNING BTC!!! What's happening now???  :)

It is easy to see that confidence is taking a quantum leap forward in comparison with the past. Think about it. It will do you much more good than much of the half-baked geometry you get pushed into your face on this forum!  :)

while the rest of your post was surprisingly good, besides a few (citation needed) moments, i just want to let you know that no one with a background in physics will ever take you seriously so long as you use this phrase :P

http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTc4ODQ0MTE5NV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwODEyNzEzMQ@@._V1_SY317_CR10,0,214,317_.jpg
Sounds like we're going way beyond the moon. We're going to travel through time.

 :D ! lol

It is a figure of speech. Arepo I think coming down to meet the common man might help you more in the weeks and months to come!

I have question for all anti-hodl crowd. If you think that people should not hold coins, then please explain me where these coins should go so nobody will hold them. To your pockets maybe? Because I fail to imagine any other place.

haha i do appreciate the perspective -- but look! even the "common man" is teasing you for it  :P

I think they are talking about velocity of money

If they want to encourage people to spend them, then it's better to just say so because now I don't understand what they really want. Besides I believe most people like me are holding until they will be able to spend this coins on things they want to buy. For example yesterday I was looking for a way to buy World of Tanks gold officially but only solution I found was to convert btc for paypal with very bad ratio on localbitcoins which also is not safe. I think as long as we won't be able to buy everything online with bitcoins or some kind of gift card talking about holding is pointless.

did you ask them?   the more people that request to use bitcoins the more places will look to accept it

this is one of those goofy things that completely zeroes out. if more coins are used as a medium of exchange instead of a store of value, then they gain utility at exactly the same rate that they lose value due to an effective increase in supply. it's Keynesian hooey. Hoarders are savers and almost all productivity gains are achieved by capital formation A.K.A. savings A.K.A. hoarding. Spending is good too, because there's no point in saving if you never spend eventually. it zeroes out. no mommy government guidance needed. No central bankster adjustments required. These people are useless at best and harmful at worst. mainstream economists are the high priests of the fiat cult. They will fade to irrelevance or meet their just deserts at the end of a rope. our grandchildren will read about them the way we read about medieval "doctors" who used leeches and phrenology. 

+1,

And you put it politely.

These socialist/communist central planners should be hanged.

Lost all my coins to scammers, nothing to hold  >:(

I am asking everybody if they will accept bitcoin when I want to buy something. But for now I have negative answer or no answer at all.

+1 That's why it's an unusually positive market. Because the bears are actually bulls! Bulls trying to feed off others' panic! That can't last forever and as it fades away the fading will contribute to the S-curve.