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Alternate cryptocurrencies => Mining (Altcoins) => Topic started by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 06:40:33 AM



Title: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT] - closed
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 06:40:33 AM
Welcome to first NXT pool. Our address is: http://nxtpool.com/

• Forging is performed by one wallet. So it's important to make deposit from your personal wallet we can identify you.
• When block is found, each participant receives a share of the fee equal to the ratio of NXT amounts of the participant and the pool, minus pool commission.
• During the promotional period the pool commission is 0%.
• At the end of the promotional period, the commission pool will be 1-2%.
• All users who have made deposits of 10.000 NXT or more during the promotional period will have reduced commission after the promotional period.
• Currently all contributions and withdrawals are processed manually.
• Commission for withdrawal is one NXT.
• Pool wallet is running on dedicated server, works 24/7 and is stable. Forging wallet is automatically restarted every 3 hours for stability.

In order to start using the pool you need to register on the website by specifying your NXT wallet and send NXT to the pool wallet: deleted

Pooling gives an obvious advantage of more stable income. But besides that, after analyzing the forging code I found that the probability of generating a block depends on the number of coins not in a linear way (mathematical justification of this fact will posted here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406331.msg4545539#msg4545539). Therefore, participating in the pool also gives higher incentive for participant than he would get by forging alone.



--------------------------
Total blocks found: 55
Total reward: 127 NXT


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: EmoneyRu on January 09, 2014, 06:47:02 AM
Forging wallet is restarted every 8 hours for stability.
How? Manually?


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: CoinBuzz on January 09, 2014, 06:50:28 AM
how we can trust you?


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 07:06:15 AM
Forging wallet is restarted every 8 hours for stability.
How? Manually?
Now manually. We work on automatic restart.
Upd: Automatic restart implemented.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 07:12:33 AM
how we can trust you?
Nohow of course.

The only thing I can say that I have created that pool because my 50 000 NXT have not generated any blocks yet and
Therefore, participating in the pool also gives higher incentive for participant than he would get by forging alone.
and I want a part of that "higher incentive".

I do not plan to kill the goose that will lay the golden egg.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Noitev on January 09, 2014, 07:15:46 AM
I think the risk reward for this is extremely lopsided. you might get lucky to get 200 nxt a day with 10 million nxt, and 10 million NXT is an awful lot of nxt to trust someone with...


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 07:19:18 AM
I think the risk reward for this is extremely lopsided. you might get lucky to get 200 nxt a day with 10 million nxt, and 10 million NXT is an awful lot of nxt to trust someone with...
If you have 10 millions you do not need a pool :)


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: relm9 on January 09, 2014, 07:27:30 AM
Quote
Pool wallet is running on dedicated server, works 24/7 and is stable. Forging wallet is restarted every 8 hours for stability.

Is the wallet running on the same server you host the site? If so that is extremely dangerous. Even if the site itself is 100% secure, never rule out internal sabotage from your host. It can happen when lots of money is at stake- slush encountered this with OVH on his Bitcoin pool awhile back.

I hope you are keeping the wallet open on an isolated machine that is ONLY used for NXT.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 07:42:05 AM
Quote
Pool wallet is running on dedicated server, works 24/7 and is stable. Forging wallet is restarted every 8 hours for stability.

Is the wallet running on the same server you host the site? If so that is extremely dangerous. Even if the site itself is 100% secure, never rule out internal sabotage from your host. It can happen when lots of money is at stake- slush encountered this with OVH on his Bitcoin pool awhile back.

I hope you are keeping the wallet open on an isolated machine that is ONLY used for NXT.
Separate server.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: User705 on January 09, 2014, 07:46:40 AM
how we can trust you?
Nohow of course.

The only thing I can say that I have created that pool because my 50 000 NXT have not generated any blocks yet and
Therefore, participating in the pool also gives higher incentive for participant than he would get by forging alone.
and I want a part of that "higher incentive".

I do not plan to kill the goose that will lay the golden egg.
But the proverbial golden egg in this instance is the large amount of Nxt you will hold on trust versus the tiny fees that will be generated of which your share will be even tinier.   ???  The only way a pool would work is if you'd be willing to escrow an amount that equals the Nxt received but then of course that would still be subject to exchange rate risk.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 08:27:43 AM
But the proverbial golden egg in this instance is the large amount of Nxt you will hold on trust versus the tiny fees that will be generated of which your share will be even tinier.

My plan is following. When NXT become popular we will have about 1400 blocks a day, each block will have about 250 transactions, and about 2500 NXT of fee. Pool will forge about 20% and I will take about 1% of it as pool owner. It's about 7000 NXT a day. Not so tiny I think.

The only way a pool would work is if you'd be willing to escrow an amount that equals the Nxt received but then of course that would still be subject to exchange rate risk.
For example I have money to escrow all pools NXT. What for I need that pool? I can just buy NXT on that money and forge by myself.
So I may do that but only for a starting period of the project.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Noitev on January 09, 2014, 08:43:31 AM
I think the risk reward for this is extremely lopsided. you might get lucky to get 200 nxt a day with 10 million nxt, and 10 million NXT is an awful lot of nxt to trust someone with...
If you have 10 millions you do not need a pool :)


That's not the point. I'm saying if I had $100 of nxt and you (some anonymous forum user) are basically are saying you'll give me 1 cent a week to borrow it, I wouldn't take you up on the offer...


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: superresistant on January 09, 2014, 08:51:51 AM
I really need a pool but I still cannot trust anyone with my NXT.
The gain for me would be a little more stable forging income but the risk would be loosing all my NXT.
Pool forging is not pool mining. The risk is damn high.

Do you have a reputation thread or something ? If not, could you give collateral ?


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Noitev on January 09, 2014, 09:03:36 AM
I wish there was some way to do some sort of pooled forging with my coins. I have a lot and dont mind parting with the coins i forge, but idk if there's a way to do that.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: starik69 on January 09, 2014, 09:08:36 AM
My plan is following. When NXT become popular we will have about 1400 blocks a day, each block will have about 250 transactions, and about 2500 NXT of fee. Pool will forge about 20% and I will take about 1% of it as pool owner. It's about 7000 NXT a day. Not so tiny I think.
I think this is overestimation. At that time fees will become 0.01 or ever 0.001, so calculate your profit more realistically.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 09:50:32 AM
That's not the point. I'm saying if I had $100 of nxt and you (some anonymous forum user) are basically are saying you'll give me 1 cent a week to borrow it, I wouldn't take you up on the offer...
Your point is clear.

Do you have a reputation thread or something ? If not, could you give collateral ?
No I have not reputation thread. The only thing I can say that I have registered March 22, 2011.

If not, could you give collateral ?
Do you mean escrow BTC?

I think this is overestimation. At that time fees will become 0.01 or ever 0.001, so calculate your profit more realistically.

I do not talk about now. I understand that now project will be unprofitable. But I think I should start now to have reputation and profit in a couple of years.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: superresistant on January 09, 2014, 10:55:21 AM
Do you have a reputation thread or something ? If not, could you give collateral ?
No I have not reputation thread. The only thing I can say that I have registered March 22, 2011.

Did you manage something similar before ? Did you trade through the forum ?

If not, could you give collateral ?
Do you mean escrow BTC?

Yes or any other form of wealth as a guaranty.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: Dervish on January 09, 2014, 11:23:07 AM
Did you manage something similar before ?
It was before bitcoin.

Did you trade through the forum ?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238044.msg2518968#msg2518968
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=75299.0

Yes or any other form of wealth as a guaranty.
May be I should ask BCNext if he ready to be an escrow...
But as I say before, If I had money to cover all of the deposits, I would not need to start this pool.


Title: Re: [NXT] NxtPool - first forging NXT pool
Post by: BitAddict on January 09, 2014, 03:40:55 PM
Guys, is no point using pools.

With 100,000 NxT you will get about 1NxT/24h , and with this quantity is better you forge alone.

With 10,000 NxT you will get 0.1NxT/24h, you will need just 20 days to pay 2NxT fee to go and return. And you're risking your whole NxT stack to gain 3.1 NxT/month , that's a 0.36% anual ROI by risking all your NxT...

With 1,000 NxT you will get 0.01NxT/24h, you will need 200 days to pay 2NxT fee to go and return.

Really, no point using this.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [97 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 12, 2014, 07:18:11 AM
1. Today I have complete domain transfer. Now pool can be accessed by http://nxtpool.com/
2. Implemented automatically wallet restarting system.
3. Pool power 97,743 NXT


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [97 KNXT]
Post by: superresistant on January 12, 2014, 09:49:12 AM
Post the mining ratio (efficiency) of your pool so we can compare with solo mining.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [97 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 12, 2014, 03:02:20 PM
Post the mining ratio (efficiency) of your pool so we can compare with solo mining.
Still searching for first block :(


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [97 KNXT]
Post by: D.Khaled on January 14, 2014, 05:52:24 AM
Sent 44 NXT test. We'll see how this goes.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [97 KNXT]
Post by: Coinsy on January 14, 2014, 05:56:10 AM
You're not doing much to facilitate trust here. You're coming off as though we should trust you before you give us reason not to. That's not a good approach to take. I've seen it taken with Visacoin. We should not trust you until you give us reason to. Be skeptical of this guy everyone.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [97 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 14, 2014, 03:34:56 PM
You're not doing much to facilitate trust here. You're coming off as though we should trust you before you give us reason not to. That's not a good approach to take. I've seen it taken with Visacoin. We should not trust you until you give us reason to. Be skeptical of this guy everyone.
Time works on me :)


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 15, 2014, 09:54:12 AM
Today we generate two blocks!


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: sniksen on January 15, 2014, 10:59:50 AM
I am interested, but I can't allow myself to send away my coins :(


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: User705 on January 15, 2014, 09:22:46 PM
Today we generate two blocks!
Were they empty of with fees?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 16, 2014, 03:16:08 AM
Today we generate two blocks!
Were they empty of with fees?
Each has 1 NXT fee.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 16, 2014, 03:24:05 AM
Welcome to first NXT pool. Our address is: http://nxtpool.com/

• Forging is performed by one wallet.
• When block is found, each participant receives a share of the fee equal to the ratio of NXT amounts of the participant and the pool, minus pool commission.
• During the promotional period the pool commission is 0%.
• At the end of the promotional period, the commission pool will be 1-2%.
• All users who have made deposits of 10.000 NXT or more during the promotional period will have reduced commission after the promotional period.
• Currently all contributions and withdrawals are processed manually.
• Commission for withdrawal is one NXT.
• Pool wallet is running on dedicated server, works 24/7 and is stable. Forging wallet is automatically restarted every 3 hours for stability.

In order to start using the pool you need to register on the website by specifying your NXT wallet and send NXT to the pool wallet: 17093633478753342904

Pooling gives an obvious advantage of more stable income. But besides that, after analyzing the forging code I found that the probability of generating a block depends on the number of coins not in a linear way (mathematical justification of this fact will be posted later). Therefore, participating in the pool also gives higher incentive for participant than he would get by forging alone.


--------------------------
Our funds: 161,595 NXT
Total blocks found: 2

Join a pool does not improve your forging income, but has a huge risk to lose all your Nxt. Why not just keep your own computer/VPS on? Therefore, apparently no one will join a pool like this. It's completely different from PoW pool mining where you don't need to risk anything other than the hashing power for one day or even just one hour.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 16, 2014, 11:41:34 AM
Join a pool does not improve your forging income, but has a huge risk to lose all your Nxt. Why not just keep your own computer/VPS on? Therefore, apparently no one will join a pool like this. It's completely different from PoW pool mining where you don't need to risk anything other than the hashing power for one day or even just one hour.

The algorithm of forging is constructed such way so:
p=P-1/4*P2
Where P - is probability to forge block with some amount and p - is probability to forge block with the same amount but split to 2 wallet.
For the small amount different is very small. But for big it's not so small.
For example if we have wallet with about 200 000 000 NXT it's change of forge about 20%. If we split amount for two wallets with 100 000 000 NXT on each our chance became 19%
p = 0,2 - 1/4*0,04 = 0,19
Converse statement is also true. If we union two wallets with individual chance 9,5% of forge we increase their total chance. It became 20%. We can continue.
First column number of wallets we store NXT. Second - total chance to forge block. Third chance of each wallet to forge block.
120,0000%20,0000%
219,0000%9,5000%
418,0975%4,5244%
817,2787%2,1598%
1616,5323%1,0333%
3215,8490%0,4953%
6415,2210%0,2378%
12814,6418%0,1144%
25614,1059%0,0551%
51213,6084%0,0266%
102413,1455%0,0128%

So if we has 1000 persons with 200 000 NXT each, when they unite to the pool they increase their income by a half!
But here we look in to very big pool. If pool power will bee 50 000 000 NXT. It will increase income of member with 50 000 NXT about 12%


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: Souldream on January 16, 2014, 12:01:11 PM
Yes but for each transaction you will lost @minimal 1 NxT .... for transaction.

So for 1 Nxt sent , you use 1..... pool for NxT by grouping all account doesn't worth .... and too risky , if your wallet get hacked ... you will refund all users back ?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 16, 2014, 02:08:55 PM
Lets add some math:

We will consider the algorithm for generating units in the system NXT.
The algorithm is as follows :
For each  wallet hash function hit is calculated with value range from 0 to 264 ( denoted by 264 of N). By the cryptographic properties of hit its value can be regarded as a random variable x with a uniform distribution on the interval [0 , N]. Value of the function is recalculated when a new block appears.
On the function hit value time t is calculated in seconds by the formula:
t = x / (A * b) [1]
where x - is a random variable whose value hit, A - base target ratio is recalculated each unit in order to maintain the required rate of generation units ( performs the same function as the complexity of the system Bitcoin ), b - the balance of the wallet (coins). Wallet for which the value of t is the minimal generates the next block.
Consider two situations : 1) All of our available funds belong to the one wallet 2) Funds split into 2 wallet with equals sum.
Lets find out in which case the probability to generate a new block is higher.

1 ) Let wallets except our involved in the generation unit K1, ..., Kn; their balances b1, ..., bn. Here we make assumption that each bi > 0. Then the time to generate a block for each of them
tk = xk / (A * bk); [2]
Denote tm = min (t1, ..., tn). In order that our wallet would generate block the following condition must be satisfied t0 <tm where t0 time of block generation by our wallet. After substituting [1] we get x / (A * b0) <tm where b0 is the number of coins in our wallet , transform and obtain the condition for the random variable x
x <tm * A * b0
taking into account the uniformity of x the probability P is
P = min{1, (tm * A * b0) / N} [3]
Here we make assumption that 1 > (tm * A * b0) / N then
P = (tm * A * b0) / N [3.1]

2) The situation is the same but we have to balance two wallets b0 / 2 on each of them. Probability that t01 <tm by the formula [3] is
p1 = (tm * A * b0 / 2 ) / N = (tm * A * b0) / 2N
And substituting the value of [3.1], we obtain
p1 = P/2
and for the second wallet
p2 = (tm * A * b0 / 2 ) / N = (tm * A * b0) / 2N = P/2
the probability that our first wallet will not generate block
q1 = 1-p1 = 1 - P/2
and also for the second wallet
q2 =1-p2 = 1 - P/2
probability that neither the first nor the second wallet will not generate block is
q = q1 * q2 = (2-P) 2 / 4
the probability that either the first or the second wallet block is generate
p = 1-q = 1 - (2-P) 2 / 4 = (4-(2-P) 2 ) / 4 = (4P-P2 ) / 4 = P-P2 / 4
so the final value
p = P-P2 / 4 [4]
Ie probability to generate a block in the event of a less than half of funds in the case of storage facilities on one wallet to the square of this probability.

And simple example to illustrate what we talking about:
1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion
2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion

2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3
but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4
http://s12.postimg.org/4vxmgb2jh/image.png

Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win.

P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (tm * A * b0) / N for each possible tm is not true. It's became true for P<1/2.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 02:03:46 AM
Join a pool does not improve your forging income, but has a huge risk to lose all your Nxt. Why not just keep your own computer/VPS on? Therefore, apparently no one will join a pool like this. It's completely different from PoW pool mining where you don't need to risk anything other than the hashing power for one day or even just one hour.

The algorithm of forging is constructed such way so:
p=P-1/4*P2
Where P - is probability to forge block with some amount and p - is probability to forge block with the same amount but split to 2 wallet.
For the small amount different is very small. But for big it's not so small.
For example if we have wallet with about 200 000 000 NXT it's change of forge about 20%. If we split amount for two wallets with 100 000 000 NXT on each our chance became 19%
p = 0,2 - 1/4*0,04 = 0,19
Converse statement is also true. If we union two wallets with individual chance 9,5% of forge we increase their total chance. It became 20%. We can continue.
First column number of wallets we store NXT. Second - total chance to forge block. Third chance of each wallet to forge block.
120,0000%20,0000%
219,0000%9,5000%
418,0975%4,5244%
817,2787%2,1598%
1616,5323%1,0333%
3215,8490%0,4953%
6415,2210%0,2378%
12814,6418%0,1144%
25614,1059%0,0551%
51213,6084%0,0266%
102413,1455%0,0128%

So if we has 1000 persons with 200 000 NXT each, when they unite to the pool they increase their income by a half!
But here we look in to very big pool. If pool power will bee 50 000 000 NXT. It will increase income of member with 50 000 NXT about 12%


If what you said is true, then either Nxt should fix this or it will worth nothing due to this unbelievable unfairness to prefer the large holders.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 04:57:15 AM
We generate two more blocks :) but they was empty :(
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=15008136651107453394
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=2778462017552493231


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 05:03:55 AM
If what you said is true, then either Nxt should fix this or it will worth nothing due to this unbelievable unfairness to the large holders.
I sure that it can not be fixed easily.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 05:18:22 AM
Join a pool does not improve your forging income, but has a huge risk to lose all your Nxt. Why not just keep your own computer/VPS on? Therefore, apparently no one will join a pool like this. It's completely different from PoW pool mining where you don't need to risk anything other than the hashing power for one day or even just one hour.

The algorithm of forging is constructed such way so:
p=P-1/4*P2
Where P - is probability to forge block with some amount and p - is probability to forge block with the same amount but split to 2 wallet.
For the small amount different is very small. But for big it's not so small.
For example if we have wallet with about 200 000 000 NXT it's change of forge about 20%. If we split amount for two wallets with 100 000 000 NXT on each our chance became 19%
p = 0,2 - 1/4*0,04 = 0,19
Converse statement is also true. If we union two wallets with individual chance 9,5% of forge we increase their total chance. It became 20%. We can continue.
First column number of wallets we store NXT. Second - total chance to forge block. Third chance of each wallet to forge block.
120,0000%20,0000%
219,0000%9,5000%
418,0975%4,5244%
817,2787%2,1598%
1616,5323%1,0333%
3215,8490%0,4953%
6415,2210%0,2378%
12814,6418%0,1144%
25614,1059%0,0551%
51213,6084%0,0266%
102413,1455%0,0128%

So if we has 1000 persons with 200 000 NXT each, when they unite to the pool they increase their income by a half!
But here we look in to very big pool. If pool power will bee 50 000 000 NXT. It will increase income of member with 50 000 NXT about 12%


If what you said is true, then either Nxt should fix this or it will worth nothing due to this unbelievable unfairness to the large holders.

This is not true. We already discussed this with Dervish in Russian. The fact that he continues to spread incorrect information makes me to suspect that he is going to conduct a scam.

This is his post, use Google Translate plz:

Дa я пoтepялв paccчётax кoэффицeнт. :(
Bыгoдa нecкoлькo мeньшe чeм я oжидaл.
Для 1 миллиoнa пpи oднoм дpoблeнии paзницa paвнa 0.03%.
Для 50 миллиoнoв пpи oднoм дpoблeнии paзницa paвнa 1.27%.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 05:29:49 AM
This is not true. We already discussed this with Dervish in Russian. The fact that he continues to spread incorrect information makes me to suspect that he is going to conduct a scam.

This is his post, use Google Translate plz:

Дa я пoтepялв paccчётax кoэффицeнт. :(
Bыгoдa нecкoлькo мeньшe чeм я oжидaл.
Для 1 миллиoнa пpи oднoм дpoблeнии paзницa paвнa 0.03%.
Для 50 миллиoнoв пpи oднoм дpoблeнии paзницa paвнa 1.27%.

I said that my coefficient was incorrect, but not whole idea.

Дa я пoтepялв paccчётax кoэффицeнт. :(
Bыгoдa нecкoлькo мeньшe чeм я oжидaл.
Для 1 миллиoнa пpи oднoм дpoблeнии paзницa paвнa 0.03%.
Для 50 миллиoнoв пpи oднoм дpoблeнии paзницa paвнa 1.27%.

It means:

Yes I have lost coefficient calculation. :(
Benefit somewhat less than I expected.
For 1 million in a single splitting the difference is 0.03% (and here I quoted Come-from-Beyond)
For 50 millions in a single splitting the difference is 1.27%

And now I say that for 200 millions (20%) in a single splitting the difference is 5.26% (20%/19%)

Where is the lie?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 05:46:39 AM
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)

for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 05:51:24 AM
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)

for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%
Do you have any reference of p = P-P2/4?

Say if I have all the Nxts, my probability is certainly 1. Then I divide all my coins to two accounts, the probability of one account is (1 - 1/4) / 2 = 3/8 and the sum of my two accounts becomes 3/4? Does that mean there's 1/4 chance no forge in a round?

If I further divide them to 4 accounts, then the forge probability further decreases? So there're more empty rounds? Seems quite hard for me to understand.


EDIT:

What I said was not true.



Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 06:00:37 AM
It means:

Yes I have lost coefficient calculation. :(
Benefit somewhat less than I expected.
For 1 million in a single splitting the difference is 0.03% (and here I quoted Come-from-Beyond)
For 50 millions in a single splitting the difference is 1.27%

And now I say that for 200 millions (20%) in a single splitting the difference is 5.26% (20%/19%)

Where is the lie?

Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.001 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.001 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.0005) * (1 - 0.0005) = 0.9995 * 0.9995 = 0.99900025
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.99900025 = 0.00099975

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.001 / 0.00099975 = 1.000250062515629

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.000250062515629 - 1 = 0.0003 = 0.03%

Max value of advantage quotient can be reached if Bob splits all his coins among very big number of accounts. It will be close to 0.05% in this case.

PS: 0.05% advantage is compensated by dispersion and can work only in very long run which doesn't make sense coz currency where stakeholders don't spend coins will die much earlier.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 06:15:32 AM
It means:

Yes I have lost coefficient calculation. :(
Benefit somewhat less than I expected.
For 1 million in a single splitting the difference is 0.03% (and here I quoted Come-from-Beyond)
For 50 millions in a single splitting the difference is 1.27%

And now I say that for 200 millions (20%) in a single splitting the difference is 5.26% (20%/19%)

Where is the lie?

Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.001 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.001 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.0005) * (1 - 0.0005) = 0.9995 * 0.9995 = 0.99900025
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.99900025 = 0.00099975

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.001 / 0.00099975 = 1.000250062515629

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.000250062515629 - 1 = 0.0003 = 0.03%

Max value of advantage quotient can be reached if Bob splits all his coins among very big number of accounts. It will be close to 0.05% in this case.

PS: 0.05% advantage is compensated by dispersion and can work only in very long run which doesn't make sense coz currency where stakeholders don't spend coins will die much earlier.

Ok, Now I understand better.
After split to two equal parts, p = 1 - (1 - P/2) * (1 - P/2) = 1 - (1 - P + P^2/4) = P - (P^2) / 4

So the equation Dervish used was correct.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [173 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 06:17:50 AM
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)

for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%
Do you have any reference of p = P-P2/4?

Say if I have all the Nxts, my probability is certainly 1. Then I divide all my coins to two accounts, the probability of one account is (1 - 1/4) / 2 = 3/8 and the sum of my two accounts becomes 3/4? Does that mean there's 1/4 chance no forge in a round?

If I further divide them to 4 accounts, then the forge probability further decreases? So there're more empty rounds? Seems quite hard for me to understand.

Here we make assumption that each bi > 0.

We need another wallets with non zero balance to consider the way I does and get this equation.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 06:18:40 AM
Ok, Now I understand better.
After split to two equal parts, p = 1 - (1 - P/2) * (1 - P/2) = 1 - (1 - P + P^2/4) = P - (P^2) / 4

So what Dervish said was correct.

Dervish overlooked that forging is a Poisson process. That's why he got insane numbers.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 06:21:27 AM
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)

for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%
Do you assume the total coins join forging is 100 millions?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 06:23:04 AM
It means:

Yes I have lost coefficient calculation. :(
Benefit somewhat less than I expected.
For 1 million in a single splitting the difference is 0.03% (and here I quoted Come-from-Beyond)
For 50 millions in a single splitting the difference is 1.27%

And now I say that for 200 millions (20%) in a single splitting the difference is 5.26% (20%/19%)

Where is the lie?

Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.001 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.001 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.0005) * (1 - 0.0005) = 0.9995 * 0.9995 = 0.99900025
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.99900025 = 0.00099975

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.001 / 0.00099975 = 1.000250062515629

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.000250062515629 - 1 = 0.0003 = 0.03%

Max value of advantage quotient can be reached if Bob splits all his coins among very big number of accounts. It will be close to 0.05% in this case.

PS: 0.05% advantage is compensated by dispersion and can work only in very long run which doesn't make sense coz currency where stakeholders don't spend coins will die much earlier.

Can you please repeat your calculations with 20% but not 0,1% or just say that there is no lie in my words.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 06:24:38 AM
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)

for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%
Do you assume the total coins join forging is 100 millions?
Sorry mistake. It should be read

for 0,1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (50 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (200 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%

Here I wrote correct numbers:
So if we has 1000 persons with 200 000 NXT each, when they unite to the pool they increase their income by a half!
But here we look in to very big pool. If pool power will bee 50 000 000 NXT. It will increase income of member with 50 000 NXT about 12%


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 06:28:05 AM
It means:

Yes I have lost coefficient calculation. :(
Benefit somewhat less than I expected.
For 1 million in a single splitting the difference is 0.03% (and here I quoted Come-from-Beyond)
For 50 millions in a single splitting the difference is 1.27%

And now I say that for 200 millions (20%) in a single splitting the difference is 5.26% (20%/19%)

Where is the lie?

Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.001 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.001 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.0005) * (1 - 0.0005) = 0.9995 * 0.9995 = 0.99900025
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.99900025 = 0.00099975

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.001 / 0.00099975 = 1.000250062515629

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.000250062515629 - 1 = 0.0003 = 0.03%

Max value of advantage quotient can be reached if Bob splits all his coins among very big number of accounts. It will be close to 0.05% in this case.

PS: 0.05% advantage is compensated by dispersion and can work only in very long run which doesn't make sense coz currency where stakeholders don't spend coins will die much earlier.

Can you please repeat your calculations with 20% but not 0,1% or just say that there is no lie in my words.
I will try for CFB


Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%


I also find out the reason why split reduces the chance. It's because these two accounts do not exchange information so they cannot avoid duplicate work.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 06:29:14 AM
Can you please repeat your calculations with 20% but not 0,1% or just say that there is no lie in my words.

Ok. Let's do it step by step.



Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?

Edit: Maybe u don't lie but just confused. I don't state that u spread incorrect information intentionally.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 06:30:07 AM
Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%

I marked incorrect assumption with red.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 06:54:16 AM
Thank you for your attention to my math. I agree that my words may be confusing, but they correct. And I also agree that in small amounts phenomenon is negligible.

And I want to remember that when I first point out that paradox I even has no idea to make a pool. I just study NXT forging algorithm. And then you answer:

Этo знaчит, чтo фopжить oднoй бoльшoй кyчeй выгoднee, чeм нecкoлькими мaлeнькими.
Дyмaeшь нaдo дeлaть пyл? B пpинципe, eгo вce paвнo нaдo дeлaть, пoтoмy чтo тe, y кoгo мaлo мoнeт cфopжaт блoк тoлькo чepeз тыcячy лeт. Ecли ктo-тo пpидyмaeт бeзoпacный cпocoб этo cдeлaть (чepeз мyльтиcигнaтypы или eщe кaк-тo), тo я бы взялcя зa peaлизaцию.

Do you think it is necessary to do a pool? you said.
And I think. Hm... He is right! And start to make pool. Spent about ten days for it on winter holidays. And now make final steps with codding.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 06:57:38 AM
Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%

I marked incorrect assumption with red.
Why?

The probability is 0.2 if he has 20% of Nxt, right?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 07:00:40 AM
Can you please repeat your calculations with 20% but not 0,1% or just say that there is no lie in my words.

Ok. Let's do it step by step.



Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?

Edit: Maybe u don't lie but just confused. I don't state that u spread incorrect information intentionally.

Now I think, if one of them split it to (100, 100), all other four actually may have a little bit more probability due to that one's loss. That only makes the difference larger.

I believe that actually the large holder does have a considerable advantage in forging, although it may be not that important anyway. As I always think the forging profit is negligible.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:01:39 AM
Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%

I marked incorrect assumption with red.
Why?

The probability is 0.2 if he has 20% of Nxt, right?

No, the point is that if base target == 100%, then guy with 200M can hit the target within 1 minute only with 0.1 probability. If someone starts playing with probabilities the system will just raise difficulty lowering advantage of combined stake.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:03:39 AM
Can you please repeat your calculations with 20% but not 0,1% or just say that there is no lie in my words.

Ok. Let's do it step by step.



Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?

Edit: Maybe u don't lie but just confused. I don't state that u spread incorrect information intentionally.

Now I think, if one of them split it to (100, 100), all other four actually may have a little bit more probability due to that one's loss. That only makes the difference larger.

I believe that actually the large holder does have a considerable advantage in forging, although it may be not that important anyway. As I always think the forging profit is negligible.

Let's discuss situation when 2 guys combine 200 and 200 into 400. What total forging power will be in this case?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:10:45 AM
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
What do you mean when saying "Total forging power"?

Why don't we imaging 3 people with each of them owns 333,333333M?
I have already solve that task.

And simple example to illustrate what we talking about:
1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion
2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion

2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3
but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4
http://s12.postimg.org/4vxmgb2jh/image.png

Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win.

P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (tm * A * b0) / N for each possible tm is not true. It's became true for P<1/2.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 07:12:13 AM
Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%

I marked incorrect assumption with red.
Why?

The probability is 0.2 if he has 20% of Nxt, right?

No, the point is that if base target == 100%, then guy with 200M can hit the target within 1 minute only with 0.1 probability. If someone starts playing with probabilities the system will just raise difficulty lowering advantage of combined stake.
Ok, I got a little bit more.

In your example, 5 people have equally 200M, does the system adjust the difficulty so that the expected interval is 1 min. Therefore the probability of none of the 5 people to hit the target (P0) needs to be around 50%? (What's the value in your algorithm?). P0 = (1 - P) ^ 5. If P = 0.2, then P0 = 0.32, a little bit too high. If P = 0.1, then P0 = 0.59, almost. Seems P should be around 0.125.

Therefore, this is a WRONG argument:
"If I have p percent of the total Nxt, I have p percent of chance to hit the target in 1 min."
But this is true
"If A account has twice Nxt as B, A have twice as much chance to hit the target in 1 min."

In other words,
If we add up all the probability of hit the target in 1 min of all accounts, it is NOT 1.



Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 07:17:59 AM
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
What do you mean when saying "Total forging power"?

Why don't we imaging 3 people with each of them owns 333,333333M?
I have already solve that task.

And simple example to illustrate what we talking about:
1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion
2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion

2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3
but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4
http://s12.postimg.org/4vxmgb2jh/image.png

Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win.

P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (tm * A * b0) / N for each possible tm is not true. It's became true for P<1/2.
Yes, you are correct in this. You mistake is, as CFB has pointed out, assuming P(200M) = 0.2. This is wrong.
Make it simpler, suppose there's only one account, P(1000M) != 1. It should be around 0.5, so that the average interval is around 1 min. If the probability of hit target in 1 min is 1, then the average interval is definitely smaller than 1 min (maybe only 0.5 min depends on the distribution).


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: notsoshifty on January 17, 2014, 07:28:37 AM
Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%

I marked incorrect assumption with red.

Isn't the part highlighted in blue also incorrect? "My first account forges" and "my second account forges" are not independent events.



Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:30:39 AM
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
What do you mean when saying "Total forging power"?

Each coin is like a mining rig. So we could use "forging power" to describe possibility to forge a block.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:33:14 AM
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
What do you mean when saying "Total forging power"?

Why don't we imaging 3 people with each of them owns 333,333333M?
I have already solve that task.

And simple example to illustrate what we talking about:
1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion
2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion

2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3
but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4
http://s12.postimg.org/4vxmgb2jh/image.png

Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win.

P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (tm * A * b0) / N for each possible tm is not true. It's became true for P<1/2.
Yes, you are correct in this. You mistake is, as CFB has pointed out, assuming P(200M) = 0.2. This is wrong.
Make it simpler, suppose there's only one account, P(1000M) != 1. It should be around 0.5, so that the average interval is around 1 min. If the probability of hit target in 1 min is 1, then the average interval is definitely smaller than 1 min (maybe only 0.5 min depends on the distribution).
Ok P(200M) = 0.2 is incorrect but it was not my main point. In my main math post I have not such assumption. And even if I have mistaken in 2 times (do not considered retargeting), the idea is still correct.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:34:29 AM
Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%

I marked incorrect assumption with red.

Isn't the part highlighted in blue also incorrect? "My first account forges" and "my second account forges" are not independent events.

In my post I study another events:
Event A - time that wallet #1 need to generate block less that time other wallets except ours need to generate block.
Event B - time that wallet #2 need to generate block less that time other wallets except ours need to generate block.
And this events are not mutual exclusive.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:35:22 AM
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
Why don't we imaging 3 people with each of them owns 333,333333M?
I have already solve that task.

And simple example to illustrate what we talking about:
1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion
2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion

2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3
but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4
http://s12.postimg.org/4vxmgb2jh/image.png

Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win.

P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (tm * A * b0) / N for each possible tm is not true. It's became true for P<1/2.

I don't get why u rely on this graph. U don't take into account that base target will be adjusted. This is what I call "Poisson process". Every account can forge is block, this is a Poisson process. But there is also another Poisson process that determines changes of forging difficulty (a process of a higher level). U don't take it into account, that's why u get wrong numbers.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 07:37:41 AM
Anyway, Could we reach a conclusion that "The large holder does have an advantage in forging. If some large account be divided into many small accounts, they lose this advantage and will give the rest large holders a little bit more forging advantage. Nonetheless, the difference is not so high so it will not jeopardize the system."

An extreme case:

suppose there's an account with 500M Nxt, and other 5000 users with 100K Nxt. To be fair, the large account should forge 50% of the coins, but actually at least one user in the 5000 hits the target in 1 min is 1 - (1 - p/5000)^5000. If p = 0.2, then 1 - (1 - p/5000) = 0.181. Which means the large holder actually can mine around 52.5% of the coins. The sums of small accounts can mine around 47.5%, but when they all combine to one account together, they can mine 50% (not 52.5%) and the advantage of the large holder goes away too. (The exact value of p here does not matter, it could be 0.3 or 0.18. The conclusion is that the advantage exists but not so large).


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:38:25 AM
Therefore, this is a WRONG argument:
"If I have p percent of the total Nxt, I have p percent of chance to hit the target in 1 min."
But this is true
"If A account has twice Nxt as B, A have twice as much chance to hit the target in 1 min."

In other words,
If we add up all the probability of hit the target in 1 min of all accounts, it is NOT 1.

U should understand that forging process is unfair from point of view of pure math, but it is fair from point of view of statistics, coz advantage of larger stake lays within the dispersion.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:38:31 AM
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
What do you mean when saying "Total forging power"?

Each coin is like a mining rig. So we could use "forging power" to describe possibility to forge a block.

But "forging power" of coin in different size wallet is different. How can sum them?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:41:02 AM
And even if I have mistaken in 2 times (do not considered retargeting), the idea is still correct.

It's correct. But the numbers r not. Already answered in that russian thread and here:

U should understand that forging process is unfair from point of view of pure math, but it is fair from point of view of statistics, coz advantage of larger stake lays within the dispersion.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 07:42:19 AM
Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N).

Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.2 probability):

Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.2 * N/2 / N)
Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.81 = 0.19

Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage:

Alice / Bob = 0.2 / 0.19 = 1.0526

Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.0526 - 1 = 0.0526 = 5.26%

I marked incorrect assumption with red.

Isn't the part highlighted in blue also incorrect? "My first account forges" and "my second account forges" are not independent events.


Why? I think the account does not know who the owner is. There's no communication between your two accounts. Therefore, they are just like any two accounts in the world.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:43:03 AM
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
Why don't we imaging 3 people with each of them owns 333,333333M?
I have already solve that task.

And simple example to illustrate what we talking about:
1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion
2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion

2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3
but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4
http://s12.postimg.org/4vxmgb2jh/image.png

Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win.

P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (tm * A * b0) / N for each possible tm is not true. It's became true for P<1/2.

I don't get why u rely on this graph. U don't take into account that base target will be adjusted. This is what I call "Poisson process". Every account can forge is block, this is a Poisson process. But there is also another Poisson process that determines changes of forging difficulty (a process of a higher level). U don't take it into account, that's why u get wrong numbers.
Ok. Just answer the question "We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion what probability that we find a block?"
Poisson process is about different time moments, not about probability in current time moment.



Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: notsoshifty on January 17, 2014, 07:45:32 AM
In my post I study another events:
Event A - time that wallet #1 need to generate block less that time other wallets except ours need to generate block.
Event B - time that wallet #2 need to generate block less that time other wallets except ours need to generate block.
And this events are not mutual exclusive.

But are they independent?

Isn't it simpler if you ignore time and just consider who forges blocks N, (N+1), (N+2), etc?

Suppose:
 - I have 400,000nxt in account A1 and it is actively forging
 - You have 400,000nxt which is split into 2 accounts A2 and A3 (200,000 per account), both of which are actively forging
 - The other 200,000nxt is either held by other people, but is constantly being involved in transactions and so never actually forging, or is destroyed nxt sent to the genesis block

My assumption is:
 - If account A has X nxt, and a total of Y nxt is forging across the whole network, then P(account A forges next block)=X/Y.
Is that assumption correct?

For block N, chance of each account A1,A2,A3 forging:

P(A1 forges block N)=0.5
P(A2 forges block N)=0.25
P(A3 forges block N)=0.25

i.e.:
P(I forge block N) = P(you forge block N) = 0.5

Difficulty can go up and down, and time taken to forge a block may vary, but the calculations above are independent of this.

Or where did I go wrong?






Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:45:56 AM
But "forging power" of coin in different size wallet is different. How can sum them?

We can sum them coz forging power of 1M == forging power of 0.5M + 0.5M + epsilon, where epsilon is small if compared to 1M.

Even more, due to orphaned blocks 1 single pool will lose more than get, we already saw this in early days when were DDoSed.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 07:47:55 AM
In my post I study another events:
Event A - time that wallet #1 need to generate block less that time other wallets except ours need to generate block.
Event B - time that wallet #2 need to generate block less that time other wallets except ours need to generate block.
And this events are not mutual exclusive.

But are they independent?

Isn't it simpler if you ignore time and just consider who forges blocks N, (N+1), (N+2), etc?

Suppose:
 - I have 400,000nxt in account A1 and it is actively forging
 - You have 400,000nxt which is split into 2 accounts A2 and A3 (200,000 per account), both of which are actively forging
 - The other 200,000nxt is either held by other people, but is constantly being involved in transactions and so never actually forging, or is destroyed nxt sent to the genesis block

My assumption is:
 - If account A has X nxt, and a total of Y nxt is forging across the whole network, then P(account A forges next block)=X/Y.
Is that assumption correct?

For block N, chance of each account A1,A2,A3 forging:

P(A1 forges block N)=0.5
P(A2 forges block N)=0.25
P(A3 forges block N)=0.25

i.e.:
P(I forge block N) = P(you forge block N) = 0.5

Difficulty can go up and down, and time taken to forge a block may vary, but the calculations above are independent of this.

Or where did I go wrong?





No, the probability cannot be simply added together, so that assumption is also not correct.  
Moreover, we can only use probability to forge one block in 1 minute.
P(A1 forges block N)=0.25
P(A2 forges block N)=0.125
P(A3 forges block N)=0.125
P(you forge block N) = 1 - (0.875) * (0.875) = 0.234375.

So before splitting, the probability to forge one block in 1 minute is 0.5, but after splitting 0.484375, the difficulty may be adjusted in following rounds.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:48:48 AM
Ok. Just answer the question "We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion what probability that we find a block?"
Poisson process is about different time moments, not about probability in current time moment.

U'll find ~ 2001 blocks of 3000 ones.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:50:43 AM
Ok. Just answer the question "We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion what probability that we find a block?"
Poisson process is about different time moments, not about probability in current time moment.

U'll find ~ 2001 blocks of 3000 ones.
Can you prove it?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 07:51:29 AM
Ok. Just answer the question "We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion what probability that we find a block?"
Poisson process is about different time moments, not about probability in current time moment.

U'll find ~ 2001 blocks of 3000 ones.
Can you prove it?

Already proved upthread.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:57:59 AM
Ok. Just answer the question "We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion what probability that we find a block?"
Poisson process is about different time moments, not about probability in current time moment.

U'll find ~ 2001 blocks of 3000 ones.
Can you prove it?

Already proved upthread.

This is not a proof. You prove that epsilon is small making assumption that epsilon is small. Some situation with ddos is also is non a prof.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 17, 2014, 07:58:58 AM
As I say
Poisson process is about different time moments, not about probability in the current time moment.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 08:01:28 AM
As I say
Poisson process is about different time moments, not about probability in the current time moment.

There are TWO Poisson processes. I'm talking about higher-level one. Ur math doesn't take into account BASE TARGET. This is why ur numbers r INCORRECT.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: BitThink on January 17, 2014, 08:02:30 AM
Dervish, why not to discuss with CFB a getwork like of pool. Your pool will be more attractive if people don't need to send Nxt to you. I guess it's doable by distributing work to multiple clients if there's some support from the client code?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Come-from-Beyond on January 17, 2014, 08:06:11 AM
Dervish, why not to discuss with CFB a getwork like of pool. Your pool will be more attractive if people don't need to send Nxt to you. I guess it's doable by distributing work to multiple clients if there's some support from the client code?

When we implement Account Control users will be able to lease forging power instead of transfering real coins. No need in getwork.

Actually we should be getting used to use pools, they r necessary in later stages of TF. Their official name is "hubs" though (time to reserve good domains in advance ;)).


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: notsoshifty on January 17, 2014, 08:34:08 AM
My assumption is:
 - If account A has X nxt, and a total of Y nxt is forging across the whole network, then P(account A forges next block)=X/Y.
Is that assumption correct?
No, the probability cannot be simply added together, so that assumption is also not correct.  

Ok - I agree the assumption is not correct, and that large forging pools have an advantage (although not necessarily a significant one).


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [174 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 19, 2014, 01:27:10 PM
Found an empty block:
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=6230879150822305049


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [177 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 21, 2014, 08:18:49 AM
Found block with 52 NXT fee!
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=5718908617635827598


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [177 KNXT]
Post by: klee on January 22, 2014, 09:49:32 AM
Found block with 52 NXT fee!
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=5718908617635827598
Kudos!


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [177 KNXT]
Post by: wing_hk on January 24, 2014, 07:57:11 AM
Why the pool report page is blank? Or I need buy share to view that page?

I hope I can check pool result before join.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [177 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 28, 2014, 05:53:08 AM
Why the pool report page is blank? Or I need buy share to view that page?
I hope I can check pool result before join.
On report page you can see only blocks founded later than your have been registered.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [216 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 28, 2014, 05:56:50 AM
Pool works for 20 days and we have found 10 blocks:
1 with 52 NXT reward,
3 with 1 NXT reward and
6 empty blocks.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [221 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on January 28, 2014, 11:54:51 AM
One more:
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=11598068148172595097


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [221 KNXT]
Post by: coinfinder on February 05, 2014, 06:29:27 PM
im deposit some nxt then find some block and see some nxt reward after that im send some nxt and my reward is gone away. why?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [221 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on February 06, 2014, 03:11:15 AM
Please PM me your email or wallet, and I'll check it.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [238 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on February 06, 2014, 06:14:43 PM
Ok. Now I understand.

When version 0.5.9 of client come out pool found a couple of blocks in obsolete fork. When we update client theirs gone.

Last two blocks founded by the pool are:
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=3817219428846416162 - today
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=11598068148172595097 -height 52254 (28.01.2014)

You can use request http://lopcalhost:7874/nxt?requestType=getAccountBlockIds&account=17093633478753342904&timestamp=1
to check ids of the blocks founded by the pool.




Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [238 KNXT]
Post by: BitZCoin on February 13, 2014, 11:18:04 PM
I spent 7758 NXT to your Pool, but it still shows me a 0 NXT in my fund?
Where are my NXT? ^^


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [238 KNXT]
Post by: larfinfool on February 14, 2014, 12:35:32 AM
hi our forum has just gone live and  if your looking to promote your pool feel free to come over and check us out !

Our site is nearly ready but until then publish your pool on our board and and we will add you to our pool directory ,

http://larfinfool.com/forums (http://larfinfool.com/forums)


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [238 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on February 14, 2014, 02:03:15 AM
I spent 7758 NXT to your Pool, but it still shows me a 0 NXT in my fund?
Where are my NXT? ^^
We add funds manually. Sorry for delay.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [238 KNXT]
Post by: BitZCoin on February 14, 2014, 03:09:50 AM
Ok, thanks saw it :)
Sry. for the bad add. Have to say it's all here :)


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [188 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on February 18, 2014, 02:17:01 AM
One more block:
http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=17783817433037423107


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [188 KNXT]
Post by: WhiteyZ on February 26, 2014, 01:44:06 PM
Im in with 2259 Nxt! Hope the Pool rocks the blocks and found a lot!!


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [188 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on February 26, 2014, 02:01:04 PM
You are welcome.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [181 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on March 03, 2014, 05:12:27 AM
Found empty block - http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=11642355869349621241
Found block with 2 NXT fee - http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=4804259970638733656


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [181 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on March 06, 2014, 04:43:49 AM
Found block with 2 NXT fee - http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=5778656998176917312


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [181 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on March 26, 2014, 05:22:50 AM
Found block with 4 NXT fee - http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=1000&blk=13858147043818572255


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on May 12, 2014, 11:53:13 AM
Last 2 blocks was good:
22 NXT fee - http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=3000&acc=5123470827004189135 (04/05/2014)
27 NXT fee - http://87.230.14.1/nxt/nxt.cgi?action=3000&acc=2779417649952402043 (11/05/2014)


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: DLXS on May 19, 2014, 02:36:45 AM
sorry missclick =/


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: soupalognon on May 24, 2014, 04:21:20 AM
I sent 1000 ntx and after a day my balance is still @ 0

NTX Address: 6564225689312079988




Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on May 24, 2014, 01:50:31 PM
I have updated your balance. Sorry for delay.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: roadies on May 26, 2014, 01:05:19 AM
Does this pool allow for leasing NXT?


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on May 27, 2014, 03:36:21 AM
Yes. But you should register on the website first.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on June 05, 2014, 04:03:23 AM
I have decided to close pool. Please request your deposits back.


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT] - closed
Post by: Dervish on July 02, 2014, 11:19:39 AM
Request to all who have made use of the pool. Please leave feedback:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=6964


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: devish on December 06, 2017, 09:22:03 PM
I have decided to close pool. Please request your deposits back.
Hello Dervish

I request my deposit back which i sended to nxtpool.com
My Account: "NXT-S5NA-X99X-NL3Y-HPWPD"

Devish


Title: Re: [NXT] nxtpool.com - first forging NXT pool [161 KNXT]
Post by: Dervish on December 06, 2017, 11:22:40 PM
I have decided to close pool. Please request your deposits back.
Hello Dervish

I request my deposit back which i sended to nxtpool.com
My Account: "NXT-S5NA-X99X-NL3Y-HPWPD"

Devish
What do you mean? Your account is blank. You have not send NXT to anybody:
https://www.mynxt.info/account/NXT-S5NA-X99X-NL3Y-HPWPD
If you insist  - provide info about your deposit.