Bitcoin Forum

I was about to purchase a KNC neptune until I ran over the math.

https://www.kncminer.com/products/neptune-second-batch

If there not shipping till May - June why would anyone purchase these when the difficulty of bit coin will rise so high?

When it would arrive you would only make 2 Bitcoins in your first month.. Less the one in the second then half again the next?  With the price at over 12$k with VAT wouldn't you be losing a a lot of cash?

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

5-1 – 5-31 (136 days)    15042 M    2.094    2.052    25.14
6-1 – 6-30 (166 days)    33047 M    0.9941    0.9743    26.11
7-1 – 7-31 (197 days)    55850 M    0.4926    0.4827    26.6
8-1 – 8-31 (228 days)    122 G    0.1973    0.1933    26.79
9-1 – 9-30 (258 days)    207 G    0.05148    0.05045    26.84

Am I getting something wrong or have people over looked these facts?

yes, with neptune is not possible earn profit. Is like when there were pre-orders of cointerra in august. The only way to earn profit is that btc price raise so never pay it by btc. pay cash

because people are dumb :)

Reality is that all vendors can't keep their promises. 

Reality is that another meme-esque coin COULD, though unlikely, come along or a coin like ppc could gain enough attention to give miners an incentive to hop algorithms which would cause a bit of a pause in difficulty.  I'm debating purchasing one if the btc price skyrockets again - the thing is that I've decided to rather put my "money I'm willing to lose" on hardware that is available right now.  When people say - you'll never make anything back, these same folks will attribute to things like "its obvious, its common sense!"  I've spoken to people that bought hardware then got antsy last minute and backed out and now they're feeling left out because that hardware isn't available anywhere (remember we bought hardware and mined btc so now we have the btc again to drop on resold hardware to keep pace with the network difficulty).  If you choose to refuse playing the preorder game, you will be left out or you will be paying entirely too much for hardware - think buying bfl jalapenos NOW when they are the equivalent to .0022 btc earned per day IF overclocked to 6.3 GH/s, buy one now and you're paying 450 dollars, couldve just preordered it and you wouldve been able to possibly mine 50-100x more coin if you were willing to wait in line and play the preorder game.  Rather than asking why buy a neptune, ask, why buy and hold bitcoins?  Because if you're buying bitcoins on the hope of a speculative gain, you're doing what all other foreign exchange traders are doing - you're speculating. 

Buying and holding bitcoins keeps you at a constant rate - you could choose to trade on the swings of the market - but that is just the same as speculating the same.  If you do decide to rather buy and hold bitcoin then also consider holding alt coins too, I choose to rather opt for hardware with a slight positive ROI - ive bought second hand stuff that shows a yield of about 12% over cost including electricity using, yep you guessed it, mining.thegenesisblock.com so far with an avalon unit and two antminers. 


Do you really think I can't sell my hardware if bitcoin difficulty becomes 50 billion BUT bitcoin price is 2-5X the price?  Seems the prevailing trend isn't firesale price but it is in fact almost always 100%+ premium on the original price I paid for the hardware.  The exception to this rule is my FPGAs which I took a colossal loss on by buying them late. 

It makes sense to mine for the next three months, but after that, it doesn't make sense to mine with any amount of hashing speed because in May / June things fall off fast...from looking at the calculators at least. Are these calculators based on solo mining? Pool mining? Am I looking at this wrong?

You need to factor in selling the hardware on ebay or CL after a few months. Holding mining hardware forever doesn't usually work out too well.

yeap once you're done mining with it, sell it off to regain part of your investment.

On Ebay someone will "buy" it from you and then issue a chargeback through PayPal. It is very common and PayPal does not side with anyone selling anything Bitcoin related. At Ebay you can sell for huge premiums compared to what you could get at the forum but it is not an option for most.

yea you still get some of the best deals here

Well leave it to the media to explain that people acquired wealth by mining in the past, but they neglect to explain that current mining hardware is a dud deal.

Oh well, the noobs will support the network and subsidize it with their own greed.

How do you all think the ROI would be at some point in a few months if someone were to use these to mine in a coin-switching SHA256 multipool spread out over a dozen coins to keep the diff low in each. Seems like none now are consistently more profitable nor predictably stable or going up in value, (maybe Peercoin?) but if they received enough attention their value may consistently bring a good ROI in time. Just wondered if anyone had a best-conceived strategy on miners as it becomes less and less profitable to mine BTC.

when cointerra open orders in agoust for delivery in December for 9k$ everybody tought it was possible get positive ROI anyway bitcoin's price has grown so fast and everybody got their moneys  :). Probably mining by GPU for litecoins will be soon profitable and also NMC, it depends only from the market cap.

gpu farming difficulty hasn't risen to astronomical levels so far

Yes it has...

first of all KnC Neptune is way overpriced!

If you want to buy hardware you should check Black Arrow Prospero-X3


Prospero X-3 (2000Ghash/second) - 0.5 W/Gh/s - $$5,949.15 - http://www.blackarro...ospero-x-3.html (http://www.blackarrowsoftware.com/store/prospero-x-3.html)
 
They can be overclocked by 20%

$6000 for (supposedly) 2000Ghps from an unproved company
or $10000 for (minimum) 3000Ghps from a proven company

Sounds reasonable to me.. I'd choose KNC. In fact I actually did.

Actually, Black Arrow have shipped FPGA miners and recently Bitfury based gear. Their 28nm ASIC (aka Prospero 3) isn't due until late february and appears to be on track so far.

Some people expected the difficulty to go up 40% a month, some expected it to go up 100% a month. So, different person have a different expected revenue....

don't preorder from blackarrow!  there 3months behind schedule! read the fourm https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.1900

Don't put too much stock into the online calculators that try to forecast profit with difficulty built in. They really don't seem to work that well based on my experience (some put you at a loss in like 3 weeks). When I got my KNC Jupiter (November batch), I used various calculators and was disappointed with what the return was going to be forecasted by the calcs.  The Jupiter was pushed back from its delivery date by like 3 weeks and the difficulty was jumping up, the BTC price was going through the roof, and everyone was in a panic.  When I got mine, I joined it to BTC Guild and it paid itself off in 22 days and has been profitable since even factoring in electricity. 

Here are my suggestions:

1) Try not to get bitcoin fever and purchase mining equipment in a panic.  Do your research, do the math yourself.

2) Yes, difficulty will go up and my guess is that when the Neptune's hit in April/May, you will make your money back in time as long as you didn't pay over what they were selling for.

3) Bitcoin investing and Bitcoin mining is very high risk, so only spend what you can afford to lose if things go south. I don't recommend you go into debt or use debt to finance any investment.  Mine, save, re-invest profits, repeat.

4) There's a few people on the boards that will try to talk you out of mining, especially with multi TH/s purchases.  Remember, they invested a lot of money into GH/s equipment and fear the network hash and difficulty rise will put them at a loss.  Respect their advice, but remember they may see you as a threat.

Good luck, be wise and safe.

 

You mean you recovered the amount of bitcoins you used or that you would have gotten had you done a purchase with the fiat you used to buy it ? In 22 days?

That's correct, I paid in fiat (paypal to KNC in November) and mined enough in BTC in December, that once sold, paid me back in fiat in 22 days.  Some people on the KNC forums said they recouped in 19 days or less, but I'm guessing their pool was better, had other mining equipment, or sold when BTC was over $1k.

-Chris