Bitcoin Forum

For all the people whining about how easy it is to be an early adopter. These low valuations might be your chance to be an early adopter!
Buy now, or forever stop whining

Think this media hype is going to happen again? Haha. ;D

Also, the same price has been reached only recently in May 2011. This is not "low".

PS: The people I would refer to as "early adopters" actually mined their batches of coins with a CPU.

Looks like buyers are in their starting positions, it hasnt looked this good in a long time. We might se a rally.
http://i52.tinypic.com/24eq9dz.gif

$7/btc is *NOT* early adopter.

An early adopter is someone with an opportunity to buy a significant percentage of the outstanding pie at a low cost with a corresponding low probability of payout.  CPU mining with existing hardware in 2009 is early adopter.   Spending millions of dollars a year later to get a similar piece of the pie is early mainstream at best, and has a non-zero chance of being late adopter/bagholder at worst.

I could deal with 10c/btc as being early adopter.  $7?  Not so much.

So you only like risk in hindsight, when the outcome was good...

Major bullish sentiment while pricing declines.  You can view that as good, I'm staying on the sidelines.

Yes, the depth has always worked as a good indicator recently when it was 2:1 for the buying side, and yet Bitcoin declined from 10$.

No, I like good risk/reward ratios, and I thought it was good at 1.00-0.5, so I bought at the time, but right now it sucks imo.

expect lots of these threads and posts as some people get there buy orders filled or just buy back in and hope it doesn't decline further.

It's going down.

No, I'm saying the risk higher today, with the reward many orders of magnitude lower.  Nothing against people who made bitcoin what it is today getting a larger piece of the pie, I'm just saying it's come too far too fast.

Are you honestly going to compare mining with hardware you already own to investing hundreds of thousands/millions of dollars for the same piece of the pie?  Heck, I'd have done the first at least part time if I had heard about bitcoin in 2009, it would have been 0 risk investment for a 0 return on a lark.  I was doing distributed computing back then for no expectation of payout.  There is absolutey NO way I'm investing real funds into bitcoin at current price levels.

You can do pretty much the same thing with i0coin right now if you want. Would be pretty easy and low risk to acquire 20K plus coins. You'd only invest 10 - 15 btc, or about $0.005 per coin.

Do not expect major buying on a labor day holiday when all of the banks are closed and Dwolla is not sending money to people's accounts.

Even if it was a regular Monday, the money does not go in until 5PM EDT.

You have another day to wait for the week's trading to begin.

I have been doing just that with alternate block chains, actually, by investing GPU power.  Also, how viable would it be to mine even 10 BTC with a CPU part time?  Don't answer that, we all know.  Even iocoin is at least an order of magnitude more expensive today than bitcoin for "early adopters."

I heard about bitcoin during the summer of 2010. I mined for a few hours, got 0 coins. Got 5 cents from the faucet though :) Didn't bother to do anymore mining since it was a waste of electricity and would wear my hardware out. I'm not bitter though

I do laugh at everyone who is whining about early adopters, it's absolutely silly. Bitcoin was nothing and there was a large possibility that it would become nothing but those people got interested, mined some and then profited. Good for them.

It's quite obvious that now when a large amount of people know about Bitcoin and the value has already jumped very significantly that you can't be an early adopter anymore. The profit levels were bound to stabilize to normal levels as is the case with any venture in a market system, this exact same thing has happened with everything and Bitcoin is in this way NOT special at all.

As far as the price goes we're definitely reaching the low numbers if it goes down a little bit more. My estimate of a low price right now is around $5-$6 and I plan to buy back in before the big players have their chance because when they commit the price is going to go up and fast.

I'm not speculating on what is a good time to buy Bitcoins specifically but we're very close to the perfect time for buying Bitcoins. My estimate is that we're now close to the point when the massive $32 bubble has finally retraced enough. We need to go lower for people to start committing again but if that happens it's a true "liftoff" situation.

Of course the price won't reach $30+ or something like that unless we get increased interest for Bitcoin. I'm positive that will happen eventually as well but it's pointless to speculate when, it'll happen when it happens. But the players currently involved can easily cause an upward trend to $15+. So buying back when it's "low" might be smart, because the turning point is really close, just needs to get a bit lower for people to accept it's low and then they buy back.

It's probably going down to about 5 soon.

To me, this is not early adopters' cost. The price of the coin has to drop to sub penny in order to qualify that.

You misread my points as a whine.  I'm also about people who put effort into spreading awareness and building bitcoin infrastructure being rewarded for their effort.

The OP claims $7/btc is an opportunity to join the real early adopters (whose marginal cost was pennies/BTC).  I'm simply pointing out that's at least two orders of magnitude from being the case.

I think many of you fail to realize that there is no reason the price should be where it is now or higher. You can not change the fact that there are still many more coins being mined everyday than potential buyers of those coins. There is no reason to own or use bitcoins other than to speculate.

Really the price is super high right now for what bitcoins are.

I think it is such a gamble to think bitcoins will go higher with all the new bitcions being created everyday.

this is my opinion.

This is just as true today as it was back then. Does this mean we are all early adopters?
.

It's a reasonable gamble.  The number of bitcoins generated a day is irrelevant "long term", the only relevant part is the cost to run the network (about $1000/hour today) compared to the revenue.  The current customer base is about 18,000 people which is roundoff error when talking world population and revenue is also $0.

So the question becomes: are we increasing our customer base as well as present and expected future revenue?  If so, the whole enchilada (21M coins) increases in value.  If not, then the opposite is true.

And how the difficulty is, even if lots of people quit mining, the difficulty will adjust so we keep getting the same number of coins mined so there's no end to it until it drops below what it's profitable for miners to sell at.

Namecoin miners have shown that they're willing to mine with a negative 40% return (as opposed to mining bitcoin and buying namecoin).  Also, an FPGA miner you can buy today has a 90%+ gross margin at a BTC price of $3.   So I'm not sure your point is valid.  I believe the bottom will be determined completely by traders and not by the cost to produce BTC.

This.

Panic sell going on!

Huge problem..


People wanting to buy in most cases can't get money into mtgox and you cant find enough people willing to take other payment methods like paypal.

This is a huge problem w\ the bitcoin market.  The pricing on mtgox is based on demand.  However, that's not an actual demand figure.  There are plenty of people w\ no money in MT Gox to buy coins with even if they wanted to.  And the process of adding funds is 5-6 days or more depending.

So, that's a huge issue that needs to be worked out.  If Mt Gox were a big corporation, they'd give people credit.  But bitcoin attracts so many dirty low lifes that things like that are only a dream. 

People having been watching the price of bitcoins fall for weeks now.  If they truly believed in it they would have added funds to MtGox long ago.  The 'it's the weekend, people can't add funds' excuse pops up almost every single weekend.  Even when it's not the weekend, or public holiday.  Most of the world doesn't have a public holiday on Monday, and it's already well into Tuesday here and bitcoins are still plummeting.


People doing 'dirty' things with bitcoins (money laundering, illicit drug purchasing) are some of bitcoin's best users.

this is no panic selling (yet), but there is a likelihood that we will see the panic soon

Lot of those bid walls are fake. Historically, when a wall on GOX is hit, it evaporates.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2502k5x.png


Ok, we will read this as "Leading bitcoin analyst proclaims panic on the markets"

I think it's a good time to buy right now.  I doubt it will be this cheap again!

I'm in on this as well ;D

It's fun reading these old threads :)

Price reflects expectation, not present status. and $21 Million for all bitcoins in existence is a bargain. Some crappy companies go for Billions.

Quite some battle going on at $3. Let's see who wins.

I don't think you understand how exchanges or commodities work. 

In my naive understanding, they work differently, because the Bitcoin market is so tiny that any old dentist around the corner can mess with it while that same dentist can't influence real commodity markets in the slightest. Bitcoin is currently 20 Million - the price for an average school building. Gold is.... no idea, 4000 billion?

If I am wrong, please enlighten me.

I was referring to the fact that you can't just buy all btc for whatever the current price is, theres only so many being sold and once those are bought...the price goes up. So no, you can't just "buy them all up 21 million".   

Right you are  ;)

Seriously - I believe this number is called "market cap". And it gives a good idea about that this market is still waiting for real investors because everyone in here is just a kid playing with pocket money.

you are just way to rationale.

Agreed

Hah, bumped at $2 and then at $222, all this figuring out if 2 or 7 is the lowest it could go looks funny in retrospect. But I remember it was all very serious at the time.