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Title: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: EuSouBitcoin on September 06, 2011, 05:07:54 PM Do you prefer to buy on the way up or the way down? I prefer to buy on the way up. Since BTC has been in an intermediate down trend, I haven't been buying. If the trend can stabilize and turn back up, then I'll be a buyer.
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: EuSouBitcoin on September 06, 2011, 07:43:15 PM Buying several times on the way up give you an unrealized gain. Buying several times on the way down gives you an unrealized loss. I prefer unrealized gains to unrealized losses. That's why I buy on the way up and not on the way down.
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: wobber on September 06, 2011, 07:47:58 PM Can you please explain with more details for a n00b?
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: EuSouBitcoin on September 07, 2011, 09:39:21 PM If you buy on the way down you would have bought
100 BTC at $9 100 BTC at $8 and 100 BTC at $7 At that point the price of BTC is $7, you are long 300 BTC with an average cost basis of $8 and an unrealized loss of $1 per BTC or $300 total. If you buy on the way up, you'd buy 100 BTC at $5 100 BTC at $6 and 100 BTC at $7 At that point the price of BTC is $7, you are long 300 BTC with an average cost basis of $6 and an unrealized gain of $1 per BTC or $300 total. If you don't know where the price is going, I include myself in this category, then it's better to be a trend follower and wait for an uptrend to buy. That way you'll have the smallest position when the price is moving against you and the largest position when it has recently moved in your favor. This is basic trend following, anti-martingale strategy. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: EuSouBitcoin on October 12, 2011, 03:56:31 AM Trend is still down. Don't buy now unless you like getting run over by a freight train.
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: S3052 on October 12, 2011, 06:40:35 AM or.. you miss the train and need to pay a much higher price to catch up...
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: ama on October 12, 2011, 08:17:20 AM Do you prefer to buy on the way up or the way down? I prefer to buy on the way up. Since BTC has been in an intermediate down trend, I haven't been buying. If the trend can stabilize and turn back up, then I'll be a buyer. You should bye when the trend is up (to cash out profit later, selling when it's higher) and sell when the trend is down (to make your profit or minimize your loses), don't you? Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Cluster2k on October 12, 2011, 10:29:41 AM The trend is your friend.
Piling into bitcoins and buying on the way up to $30 was an easy way to make money. Just don't be the greatest fool holding the bag. That's the name of the game: dump your hot commodity or stock before everyone else wakes up and dumps their's. Bitcoin could well shoot up 100% within a month. But will it do so from $4 or $2? That's anyone's guess. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: ama on October 12, 2011, 11:10:07 AM Bitcoin could well shoot up 100% within a month. But will it do so from $4 or $2? That's anyone's guess. Wait and see when the signals of trend up appear. The first coin should be made by others. ;) Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: grod on October 12, 2011, 02:59:43 PM or.. you miss the train and need to pay a much higher price to catch up... The only ones with a NEED to buy are those who shorted on bitcoinica with a 5:1 margin. They deserve their loss. The rest of us can hedge our BTC sales by buying mining hardware if we choose to. It's just that I feel there are way too many bitcoin bulls for $4.20 to be anything but a resistance level. Besides, why do I care if I used to buy at $3 to sell at $3.30 and it jumps to $100 overnight? I'll just buy at $100 to sell at $110. Buy and hold is a *horrible* strategy in a bear market. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: BadBear on October 12, 2011, 03:40:45 PM or.. you miss the train and need to pay a much higher price to catch up... The only ones with a NEED to buy are those who shorted on bitcoinica with a 5:1 margin. They deserve their loss. The rest of us can hedge our BTC sales by buying mining hardware if we choose to. It's just that I feel there are way too many bitcoin bulls for $4.20 to be anything but a resistance level. Besides, why do I care if I used to buy at $3 to sell at $3.30 and it jumps to $100 overnight? I'll just buy at $100 to sell at $110. Buy and hold is a *horrible* strategy in a bear market. Exactly. Need to keep moving if you wanna keep up. Just buying and leaving them sitting there isn't a good idea at this stage. I won't be going all in until I see clear signs of a reversal (and not just another bounce). Market like this means time to play, lot of opportunity to make money still. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Crypt_Current on October 12, 2011, 04:14:28 PM The OWS movement has begun accepting donations in BTC. Just wanted to remind everyone of that / inform anyone who didn't already know.
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: grod on October 12, 2011, 04:57:47 PM Exactly. Need to keep moving if you wanna keep up. Just buying and leaving them sitting there isn't a good idea at this stage. I won't be going all in until I see clear signs of a reversal (and not just another bounce). Market like this means time to play, lot of opportunity to make money still. IMO going "all in" is another horrible strategy. TA, which you appear to practice, is simply a way of estimating probabilities of direction over timeframe. If you go all in and you're wrong you have no outs. A single fundamental event outside your control could destroy your ability to play another hand. In other words, that poker-inspired strategy is just as bad as buy-and-hold in a bear market. Of course, nothing is as bad as a 100% all-in falling knife catch, but I don't believe anyone is dumb enough to do that. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: BadBear on October 12, 2011, 05:10:36 PM Exactly. Need to keep moving if you wanna keep up. Just buying and leaving them sitting there isn't a good idea at this stage. I won't be going all in until I see clear signs of a reversal (and not just another bounce). Market like this means time to play, lot of opportunity to make money still. IMO going "all in" is another horrible strategy. TA, which you appear to practice, is simply a way of estimating probabilities of direction over timeframe. If you go all in and you're wrong you have no outs. A single fundamental event outside your control could destroy your ability to play another hand. In other words, that poker-inspired strategy is just as bad as buy-and-hold in a bear market. Of course, nothing is as bad as a 100% all-in falling knife catch, but I don't believe anyone is dumb enough to do that. You're right, the traps can be tricky. I'll have to sit down and seriously think about my breakpoints and my limits. I don't see a full reversal happening until after the holiday season so I haven't put much thought into it yet. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Crypt_Current on October 12, 2011, 05:17:26 PM What the heck is an OWS movement? http://tinyurl.com/3jbp7yl Jagged! XD I'll be using this... Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Crypt_Current on October 12, 2011, 05:38:09 PM What the heck is an OWS movement? http://tinyurl.com/3jbp7yl And what is behind that link? Oh grow up, just click on it. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Crypt_Current on October 12, 2011, 05:51:25 PM What the heck is an OWS movement? http://tinyurl.com/3jbp7yl And what is behind that link? Oh grow up, just click on it. Grow up? An anonymous user on a forum posts a link with no identifying inforamtion and no text explaining what it is, I think it is a valid time to be concerned that the link may be nefarious. It's EXTREMELY nefarious. I died from clicking on it. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: ineededausername on October 12, 2011, 06:24:30 PM What the heck is an OWS movement? http://tinyurl.com/3jbp7yl And what is behind that link? Oh grow up, just click on it. Grow up? An anonymous user on a forum posts a link with no identifying inforamtion and no text explaining what it is, I think it is a valid time to be concerned that the link may be nefarious. It's EXTREMELY nefarious. I died from clicking on it. I hate lemonparty... Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: dree12 on October 12, 2011, 08:19:45 PM What the heck is an OWS movement? http://tinyurl.com/3jbp7yl And what is behind that link? TinyURL offers a handy "preview" feature. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: OgNasty on October 12, 2011, 08:52:56 PM What the heck is an OWS movement? http://tinyurl.com/3jbp7yl And what is behind that link? An anonymous user on a forum posts a link with no identifying inforamtion and no text explaining what it is, I think it is a valid time to be concerned that the link may be nefarious. Sorry Peter. That is just a link that shows you how to Google your question. It was meant as a joke. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Mageant on October 12, 2011, 09:22:26 PM I'm buying at regular intervals using a part of my income while keeping some cash available for deep drops regardless of whether it's going up or down. This mean I get the average price over longer time period.
As long as Bitcoin is not mainstream yet, it is cheap. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: BitMagic on October 13, 2011, 02:39:54 PM I like to buy high and sell low, mostly. Because if it goes up higher or goes lower than when I last bought or sold, I can make a profit. It's a pretty good plan.
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: dree12 on October 13, 2011, 08:14:22 PM I like to buy high and sell low, mostly. ???Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: opticbit on October 13, 2011, 08:19:20 PM if it seems like a bad time to invest in btc, why not buy some and spend them.
Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Vandroiy on October 13, 2011, 09:42:57 PM I prefer speculating against trends. I actually bought some on the way down from 6 to 4, and sold some on the mini-rallies. I do go in-trend if it seems necessary, but it feels better to have someone take my order than pulling the trigger myself.
Call me strange, maybe I just like being the outsider. *shrugs* I guess to make good money, one must be flexible though. My best deal was one where I bought in-trend and sold into the continuing one. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: BitMagic on October 13, 2011, 10:48:54 PM I was just saying that it's good to buy and sell to make a profit, usually against the popular direction. Because when you're not following the masses, you can profit. Usually about 10%, or $2 if you're investing light. Call me strange, maybe I just like being the outsider. *shrugs* Yeah, I like being the outsider, too. "Buck the trend," if you will. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: dree12 on October 13, 2011, 11:05:57 PM I was just saying that it's good to buy and sell to make a profit, usually against the popular direction. Because when you're not following the masses, you can profit. Usually about 10%, or $2 if you're investing light. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: grod on October 14, 2011, 02:06:25 AM When you follow the trends the odds are in your favor. For example, if you go long in an uptrend and there is a short term reversal you have various options of extricating yourself from the position. If the long term and mid term are intact you may even choose to ride it out for a few days. The same goes for being short in a downtrend.
When you fight the trend your odds of success are correspondingly lower, and you have to be right more often. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: Mageant on October 14, 2011, 11:56:37 PM My current strategy is buy high and buy low (and never sell).
;D Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: anu on October 15, 2011, 09:15:45 AM When you follow the trends the odds are in your favor. For example, if you go long in an uptrend and there is a short term reversal How do you know all that? Tomorrow, some large business may adopt Bitcoin. Or tomorrow the USA, EU, India, China and Japan decide to kill Bitcoin by arresting core developers of anything Bitcoin plus Julian Assange for gangraping Lara Croft. Or... Seems likely that some event during the next months will render all extrapolations obsolete. My current strategy is buy high and buy low (and never sell). Me, too. With my luck any major sale of BTC will be the starting point of a rally to 10000. Title: Re: Buy on the Way Up or on the Way Down Post by: ama on October 15, 2011, 09:34:22 AM Me, too. With my luck any major sale of BTC will be the starting point of a rally to 10000. I'll buy from you when you decide to sell, then. ;D |