Bitcoin Forum

Mining factor fell to 22 cens per 1Gh at 24h, and the Bitcoin price continues to fall.
For next 7 days we will have the new mining factor -30% in the best case 15 cents per 1Gh at 24h.
(if BTC price stay at 900 USD)

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/617/0075875724.png (http://easycaptures.com/0075875724)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/0075875724)

Producers ASIC technology will massively to leave the Bitcoin mining,
when mining factor reach red line of 5 cents per Gh at 24h, and there is the beginning of the end.

OP, what are you babbling on about?

Do not look at the present, look to the future  ???

That definitely sounds fortune cookie-ish. There's no way you came up with that yourself.
 

We´re going to have a dumptastic weekend.  :)

Miners have been too profitable for too long. It's ok for them to have smaller revenues. Too many just became wealthy out of this.

Also, mining in current setup harms BTC, because they mine in pools. Let the solo mining begin (again)!

Do you think, that we are robbed,  by manufacturer ASIC hardware ?

What do you mean? I don't understand, sorry.

Do you think that we are too expensive to pay Bitcoin ?

I think that you are insane.

Wow!  This is certainly frightening confirmed bad news.  Thank you for letting us all know.  To help consolidate all the bad news into one place so that people can easily see just how bad things are, please post your news here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412280.0).

Posting your bad news there will give it the most visibility and will help the greatest number of people know how bad the market is so that they can intelligently choose to SODL all their bitcoins and SHOTR bitcoins if they don't have any.  Thank you for your service to the community.  Please continue to post more confirmed bad news as you discover it.

OP, are you delusional? Exactly how would mining costs (in terms of $ per GHs) influence Bitcoin at all?

If mining becomes cheaper, more people will mine, thus mining will become more expensive.
If mining becomes more expensive, less people will mine, thus mining will become cheaper.
Natural balance is natural.

This is the reality

This is a massive conspiracy theory, which leads to destruction

igorr this is not the reality at all, in the past people mined at tiny margin / loss and they have been well paid on the next bubble. This is not the beginning nor the end of anything

Yes. There is a saying (actually a solid business principle):

When all the people search for gold, sell hammers and pans.

There is also a saying that says:

When wobber is all in fiat, it is time to buy.

Ok, then I'll sell this card for only $ 10 usd, when difficulty comes at 1000 bilion.

http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/

Do you want to buy it ?
Does the manufacturer wants to produce a new card 600 Gh/s for the selling price of 10 USD ?

Someone gets scared easily  ::)

Absolutely.  Thank you for the confirmed analysis.  Please post it in my bad news thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412280.0), as it will get the most exposure and help the most people there.

Not problem,
Just share bro

Here, I'll do it for you.  Your analysis carries some significant weight because your signature contains Russian language characters.  Thank you again.

I know for it, but for me Russia is everything. Russia = True,

If you want, you can also add my thread and my analysis from,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400001.0

Litecoin has no new technology to make it superior to other, upcoming coins.... so basically you think bitcoin will crash but have invested in litecoin and are pumping it. Educated guess based on available information. I'd say it's more likely that if bitcoin crashes, the other coins will crash as hard, and the market cap of the whole crypto currency space will decline, a good thing that will allow new fresh investors into the scene and wipe out the net worth of all the early adopters who hopefully sell and give some of their coin to the fresh investor base.   Right now for claiming to be 'decentralized' crypto currencies are really no different than fiat currencies, profit driven with a large portion of the currency being held in very few hand.. the top 1% determined to keep their riches.

so this is it? we all gonna meet our destiny?

Check this thread, all is clear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=419207.msg4565079#msg4565079

Another useless post, I am glad you are here to keep me laugh on friday night
Now, stop posting bullshit and do something good for the humanity: don't use google translate

my ignore list keeps growing.... this recent price rise has attracted all the dumbest ppl in the world to this forum

Soon, i will only be able to communicate with handful of ppl on here. Where are all the old guys? i bet the noobs here scared them all away. If it keeps going like this, i probably wont be on here anymore.

 

No, you fool. They'll be selling their 6 Ph/s card at that stage. It's the way markets work - supply and demand.

Can anyone put the OP in layman's terms? 

Original post or original poster?

Original post: confusion and lack of understanding of the mining algorithm.

Original poster: thoroughly Proudhoned.

Admins also removed the cages from the newbie forum, so trolls with zero posts rush straight in here to spam, while before they had to get an anti-rabies vaccine first. I agree, many topics consist entirely of ignored posts now, sad. Lack of general intelligence on a btc-e trollbox level also shows. That is a downside of widespread acceptance I am afraid. Most people are idiots.

Not possible, for 6 Ph/s card should wait about 20 years, or chip technology of 0.001 nm
and difficulty of 1000 bilion we will have for next 9 month

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/605/5953518345.png (http://easycaptures.com/5953518345)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/5953518345)

How come all FUD-spreaders are still hodling .... SELL SELL SELL :P

They haven't got any Bitcoins! They are full-fiat!  :D

full-fiat is the power.

Except in Cyprus where the government steal it from you.

The window of opportunity will start closing soon.

- The US, UK and other massive economies are scrambling to make a comfortable and official place for Bitcoin in their respective countries.

- Bitcoin is a super-streamlined 21st century currency that works with digital networks in a far superior way than current banking and credit card systems. Unless we are going to pack up the Internet and regress then it is going to keep spreading very quickly.

- Bitcoin is fixed. The supply cannot be increased.

Put these three things together.

Bitcoin is going to massively outperform fiat over the next several years at least.

Now we have four large a country of where Bitcoin is severely sanctioned,
or half of the earth, in an area with about 2.8 billion people.

1. China
2. India
3. Kanada
4. Russija

Check this  ;)

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/619/1883428957.png (http://easycaptures.com/1883428957)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/1883428957)

For next 5 days -30% , and again for 11 days -30%, and again, and again, ..........

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/619/9067375278.png (http://easycaptures.com/9067375278)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/9067375278)


Difficulty in 2014 year,

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/605/5953518345.png (http://easycaptures.com/5953518345)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/5953518345)

Looks bullish to me. :)

This data convinced me that we will see new 2014 lows over the next few weeks as people realize this -30% and the mining factor going down because of ASICs and Moore's law.  This has all been confirmed, and the analysis above clearly demonstrates the problem.

What to do?:  SODL all bitcoin and SHOTR all bitcoin for maximum profit and to protect against painful losses.  Confirmed sources make this clear.

The manufacturer mining hardware for a few months, will no longer have any interest to mine bitcoin and production any ASIC hardware.

Exactly!  This will at least push the price to standard deviated trend line based on the failed exponential growth curve.  That means the price should fall to around $100 in the short medium term optimistic bear case, but will probably go lower in the fourth quarter of bitcoin's fiscal year.

By 2015, the price might, and I say "might", stabilize in the healthy zone (can't provide a chart right now), which is between $1 and $2.  This, of course, assumes a conservative bullish bear case, so we could see much worse. 

By 2016, no bitcoin anymore, and this can be seen in some of the latest confirmed bad news sources, mostly in Chinese and Russian (See Peter R's recent reporting).

All this leads to an inevitable conclusion:  EVERYONE MUST SHOTR BITCOIN at the highest margin levels. 

I think you over-evaluate the effects of negative news. Their power is not enough to push price to $1-2. But 100s is definitely a target for 2014.

What is missing on that equation as far as I can see is the fact that bitcoin is getting more and more popular and the earth population is about 7.1 billion...

I know I'm gonna regret asking this, and I really hate feeding the trolls, but where exactly are "3. Kanada, and 4. Russija? Are you just making this shit up as you go?

Russia;
http://asozd2c.duma.gov.ru/addwork/scans.nsf/ID/CF63A3649915F2B543257C61003AF56A/%24FILE/428896-6.PDF?OpenElement

If you do not understand Russian, you have translated this document here;
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412280.180

Canada;
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-not-legal-tender-canada-government-official/

Oh well, only 4.2 billion and a massive black market for all the rest then.

Never mind. Better pack up and go home I guess. Come on igorr, I'll buy you a cup of tea.  :D

Cleaning mining hardware is started, but I think it is now too late,

Check thread;

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=419632.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397876.0

I think I see more 'flex' in the situation than some of you.  

Just because a country (China, Russia, etc) may legislate against Bitcoin in the short term doesn't mean that decision is necessarily permanent.  

The same nations banned individual checking accounts and credit cards too, until it became clear that those bans put them on the losing side of economic history.  And then the bans fell.  

If they ban Bitcoin now, while it takes off in the North America, South America, Western Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Africa, it's pretty clear that the ban will be on the losing side of economic history.  I don't see those bans holding up for more than two or three years, and I don't see Bitcoin prices falling much during that time given that the uptake in other places is rapidly accelerating.

Bans will though have a horrible economic effect on the countries doing the banning, and they will realize this probably a bit too late.  They'll be keeping it banned through a long run-up in price.  That's a huge amount of wealth being distributed to other nations where Bitcoins are held and circulated.  The nations banning Bitcoin are cut out of this wealth, and further behind the economic eightball every week the bans stay up.

OMFG ... SLELL all of it . It is going to $10 !!  :o

http://www3.fodey.com/download-image/download.asp?as=newspaper&tp=2298&file=029f8770a7fe4f459340ae338b142ee1.0.jpg

I don't usually gloat, but I have to say it will be very tempting to contact Professor Williams mid-year to see if he would like to make another widely-publicized announcement, to follow up on his story.

With China and Russia it's permanent. Totalitarian regimes don't want their powers undermined by cryptos.
If they will feel a need, they'll launch their own state-controlled crypto, with some of the properties of bitcoin.

Another begging "please-drop-the-fiat-price-because-I-really-want-to-buy" story ...

Interesting and worrisome article.  Their research showed (see newspaper image above) that 47 people own 29% of all bitcoins and that 930 people own 50% of all the bitcoins.  Mark Williams is a Boston University Finance Professor so it's confirmed that he did his due diligence and we can take everything in that newspaper article as fact, especially since one of the sources is Forbes.    

But now look at this completely independent thread form Risto.  Here Risto uses advances techniques such the Pareto principle and other sophisticated deductations to also definitively conclude the exact same thing!  In fact, both of their methodologies are so precise that they both estimate exactly 47 people control 29% of the BTC.  Not 46 or 48 but 47.  These guys are that good.  


So, Risto says that 47 people control 3.5M of the 12.1M coins.  3.5M / 12.1M *100% = 29%.  These are the "47 powers" that control 29% of the BTC that Williams stated "collaborated to push up the prices to where they are today."  

Risto says that 47 + 880 = 927 people control 3.5M + 2.6M = 6.1M.  And 6.1M / 12.1M = 50%.  And the newspaper article above states that 930 people control 50% of all the coins.  Coincidence?  Obviously not.  

So, we can clearly conclude two things:

1.  Risto's deductive reasoning is literally amazing.  He was able to essentially guess the exact wealth distribution of bitcoin which has now been verified by multiple independent sources.  

2.  Prof Williams used advanced methodology from the Science of Economics, and sources including Forbes, to independently come up with precisely the same top-heavy distribution.  Using this same methodology, he was also able to show that exactly 47 people colluded to push up the price.

3.  We have confirmation that we indeed have confirmed the precise wealth distribution on an individual-by-individual basis in bitcoin. This is obviously the beginning of the end of bitcoin.  

As long as the bitcoin cartel of the largest holders keep holding, creating artificial scarcity, the current very high prices won't drop too much.
But if they decide to sell a significant proportion, for whatever reason, it's going to be single digits for a while.

same with dollars and gold and silver and any form of money that ever was.

how many US dollars does china own?

this is a ridiculous argument / conclusion.

so now we have two topics about confirmed bad news from sources? this is spreading, soon all forum will understand the true truth about things! too late to sodl and shotr already, crash is already happens.

What if those "47 Ronis" already had spread their wealth on another beta-coin ?  

You're pushing the boat out a bit there aren't you? So where is your proof of this collaborative effort? I strongly doubt such collaboration but if you have any direct evidence carry on.

I've thought about the wealth distribution. If Bitcoin were only a currency then it wouldn't make sense, agreed. But Bitcoin is not only a currency at all. It is also a payment network, which is inseparable from the currency. In some ways a Bitcoin is also a share, as if the Bitcoin network was a company (digital payments platform). It is not unusual for the founders of a company to hold many more shares than those who buy in at IPO for example. This is perfectly normal.

This way of assessing the situation is certainly more accurate than simply arguing about wealth distribution as if Bitcoin were fiat currency.

I'll re-enter normal 'Peter R' mode because we are not in the 'Confirmed Bad News Thread' (where I reserve the right to unleash my inner troll).  My post you quoted (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=420005.msg4606471#msg4606471) was just another parody on bitcoin FUD and our reliance on "experts" and pseudo "confirmation."

Someone from the MSM read Risto's original thread here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297), and published an article that implied these wealth distribution estimates were "facts."  Then more and more people started assuming they were indeed facts since it was "confirmed" by the MSM.  And now we have "professors" like Dr. Williams seemingly "reconfirming" what were essentially "guesses" by some random guy from an internet forum, and then adding things like "these 47 people colluded to push up the price."

After I embraced my inner troll (thanks to Proudhon) a couple of days ago, it's really opened my eyes to the extent of misinformation everywhere.  Even people in prestigous positions parrot the latest FUD without ever checking the original source.  

misinformation is one thing. what i have noticed is that people very much overemphasize the importance of FUD. everyone gets their panties in a bunch about it without ever considering that news/FUD are not the only determining factors on price, and may not be important at all.

I kept mining at an unprofitable ratio, back in the days when BTC were exchanged around 2 U$...
As beleving in a 10 000 + U$ ill keep mining forever :P

Welcome to the new difficulty and new mining factor  ???

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/624/2952604470.png (http://easycaptures.com/2952604470)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/2952604470)

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/624/5668068580.png (http://easycaptures.com/5668068580)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/5668068580)

And MtGox exchange loses credibility,and has the lowest trading vulume.
(btce, bitstamp and bitfinex have the larger volume than MtGox)

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/624/7448331748.jpg (http://easycaptures.com/7448331748)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/7448331748)

this is why PeerCoin or nxt can skyrocket, mining tax not there.

BTC quickly losing popularity, and now we have mining factor 14.6 cents per GH at 24h

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/637/3446942191.png (http://easycaptures.com/3446942191)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/3446942191)

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/637/7436452349.png (http://easycaptures.com/7436452349)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/7436452349)

Welcome to new dificulty 3.12 bilion and new mining factor 9 cents/Gh at 24h   ???

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/648/2935332617.png (http://easycaptures.com/2935332617)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/2935332617)


http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/648/9875425671.png (http://easycaptures.com/9875425671)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/9875425671)

This chart says all: https://blockchain.info/de/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

 :o :o :o :o :o

So is this a problem??

or just dumb FUD?

Or this chart says all;

http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/648/9935657576.png (http://easycaptures.com/9935657576)View Screen Capture (http://easycaptures.com/9935657576)

Stop spreading FUD! Of course it´s a problem!

I find it hard to believe that this hasn't been calculated before

We're going to see 1 of 2 outcomes:

1. Everyone quits except for massive mining outfits, leaving the system more centralised and less democratic.

2. Everyone quits including massive mining outfits, difficulty falls and more people start mining, making the system more democratic.

Difficulty falls but the bitcoin price also hard falls, and again mining not profitable.

Who gives a flying fuck if, even if you were right - which you cannot prove because your numbers are assumptions at best - so what? - miners arent profitable for a few days or weeks or months. Guess what? - Its a fucking business and businesses aren't profitable all the time. And its not like miners are just going to stop mining - better to make less bitcoin than none at all.

You are just a stupid troll and pretty incompetent as far as trolls go anyway.

Don´t worry about him igorr , he invested to much in Bitcoin and is now very angry cause it doesn´t work out. Please keep up the good work igorr, never mind the haters.

Please return to real technical and fundamental analysis.

stupid people always lose, are you one of them?

You wouldn't know technical and fundamental analysis if it ran up your butthole. But you might enjoy it more. 8)

Could you please just sell and cut your losses before it get´s even worse, and stop bitchin about everybody who is providin rock solid analysis just because it doesn´t fit your position.

I've made exactly 1 losing trade since I started trading bitcoin (albiet I do not trade regularly). In comparison you made 2 losing trades in the last 24 hours.

Just open sell position on your metatrader 4, and you will never lose.

Lol, as i stated i closed my shorts in the lower 600´s that have been opened@720. And opened new ones , as i stated a few hours ago between @640-660.
Please don´t embarrass yourself and look into my post history. So i´m double green. Therefore i had open shorts from 840 that have been closed in the lower 700´s. So triple green.
Everyone laughed and insulted me my since i started shorting @840, well it turned out to be a good decision.
I´m just fuckin with you cause you started it today with your, "fonzie is pissin in his pants, he´s gonna get short squeezed,i call him lemon from now on"
We can be friends from now on :-*  :D
I´m not interested in an internet dick fight, but i just returned your favor for this time.

I am not your friend.

And it is documented that you lost on your last 2 trades.

PLease show me your documentation.

One only has to play poker for a little while to discover that's absolutely not true.  The stupid player who has no idea what's going on can smash the experienced player over and over again with luck.  Sure, in the long term the stupid player will lose, but in the short term he'll take all your money and leave the table.

I'm guessing you're actually making this statement to the rest of us since there isn't much point in arguing with fonzie.

Statements like this one are basically non-statements.  One can purchase asset X, never sell asset X and claim no losses.  Personally, I'm more interested in minimizing unrealized losses, but to each their own.

...



Please look @ the time stamps and  @ the price Bitcoin has been on that time. So please stop spreading lies about me.


Edit: i didn´t open the long btw, even if it would have been profitable, but i was to afraid about the upcoming Gox stament, but shorting has been realized, cause that thing is a no brainer  ;)

very true poker is a game of imperfect/incomplete information ...  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory#Perfect_information_and_imperfect_information (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory#Perfect_information_and_imperfect_information)

Thats the reason is hard to make a proper poker bot