Bitcoin Forum

The market is sure looking like it wants to make a new recent low below the $6.00 mark and possibly lower.

EDIT: The title was changed just to have some fun lol  :-*

Lower than below 6? Holy shit, that’s low.

SELL

You don't even need to provoke people to sell, looks like they are doing it on their own.

Just hit $5.93... ::)

I don't know what you mean by "the market looking like". Market price is not determined by the shape of the curve of past prices. It is determined by external supply and demand characteristics.  The shape of past trades is not good data to inform your future purchase decisions.  It's like trying to figure out where a car is from skidmarks left the previous day.

I may agree with your conclusion, but not how you got there.  If you are trying to troll, however, good work sir.

And again.

It's called technical analysis. If you don't believe what I am predicting in this post and other posts then please hold your bitcoins. I'll buy them back when the price is at $2.00 or $1.00.

Someone just gave up on BTC big time. That was some HUGE volume going for very little and then 3 panic sells.

don't worry. early adopters do not exist. they do not have 10000+ stashes of BTC to sell when they want to get out.
just ignore it.

Who said this had anything to do with early adopters? This has everything to to with the market and the bitcoin economy and where it is headed currently. Things may turn around and the trend may change permanently but I suspect not without  a huge news blast of positive things as well as good publicity on some shows like Alex Jones or even Oprah =).

Oh well, then I'm fine, *wipes sweat off his brow*. Wait, I don't care, I don't even have bitcoin.

Likewise. I sold all of mine at $10.70 and $8.40.  ;D

I was just being sarcastic. I can picture an early adopter who mined/bought 25K of bitcoins during the days when the price was
just pennies a BTC and deciding they have had enough of watching their "retirement" shrink to nothing. That would make anyone
go crazy watching this slide and decide crap.. I better sell.

Either that or someone really wealthy, our "manipulator(s)", said time to lower the boom.

I was just commenting on someone "gave up on bitcoin".. is all.

I think watching all this is entertaining and I just bought in. RALLY!
I left enough on the exchange to play with since the hardware is basically paid off.

It appears to be one person with all those buywalls.  I am watching him this second.  He had two big ones and now they're all changing to a staircase of little buywalls.  And when it dropped under 6, he made an accidental removal of some of his buywalls before he put them back in or maybe Gox lagged.  You're being played for suckers.  The Manipulator is now scooping up cheap coins.

If I was an early adopter and was still in the game right now. I would have sold at like $8 on this down trend thinking to buy back in much lower.

So if my decisions are on target with that of a real early adopter then maybe this will happen. Negative  RALLY!

Not playing me. i've sold long ago. I'm gonna buy when the price goes much further down.

They'll "magically" disappear just like they did before. I've never seen a buywall hold in the last weeks. They just vanish right before being hit.

I believe it is a psychological tact to get people to think the market is turning around or has support.

I dont even bother looking that the depth chart since it is obvious manipulated like such.

Not all of them.  Whoever just sold 18k bitcoins in one go managed to blast through a few walls.

I mean the huge ones, like those that we see right now at 5.95 and 5.75. They have a tendency to disappear just before being hit. Like smoothie says it's likely someone trying to have it look as if there were support.

It doesn't take a sophisticated bot to maintain the illusion of buy walls.  Course, if they get taken out enough times, you won't be seeing that again until prices get much, much lower.

I think exactly this happened at 13.  The bot was trying to create an illusion of stability, trading volume and support and then got sold to hard.

TL;DR: look for the walls again once we retreat to 5-ish.

I know what you're talking about.  I agree that lots of orders are put up with the intention that they'll influence behavior and not get executed, but there's risk involved in that strategy because sometimes they do.  As I said, the recent 18k sell went through some very large orders.

Fixed for you.  ;D

Now that depends.  If you assume The Manipulator wants to buy cheap coins (and I don't) then yeah, let it freefall to $4.

I think The Manipulator wants to *SELL* coins.   That's how he or she has the capital to put up fake bid walls to try and support the price while dumping - from previous selling.  I think the walls will be back at $5, won't be waiting for $4 at all.

I guess we'll find out.

News Flash: The manipulator doesn't control the entire market.

of course it has gone down, I bought back in at $7.75. If I sell here you can expect it to go back over $8.

Whoever the large trader is in the current market is doing a brilliant job.  Price is dumped to below $6, then slowly built up to $6.42 with small orders before nice chunky sells like 1374btc are put through and the price falls again.  It's rather interesting to watch.  One thing is for sure, win or lose, MtGox comes out on top.

They don't make anything if bitcoin goes under.

This is all following the manipulator's plan.

some of you act as if you've never seen bitcoin hit $6 before. you must not have been around last month (august 6th to be exact). It only took two weeks before it was back up to $12 again.  The manipulator knows what he's doing. Never doubt the manipulator.  If you're selling low then he's playing you like a fiddle.  If youre buying low then he's your friend.

http://cdn2.iofferphoto.com/img3/item/204/647/122/manipulator-1971-rare-mickey-rooney-super-weird-59aac.jpg

There is zero risk involved if it is the exchange itself the one that is putting up those walls.

Personally I trhink they shouldn't be trading on their own exchange since they have a massive advantage over everyone else. They can see everyone's account and make profit on all trades.

It works for Wall Street banks where there are laws to put in place 'Chinese Walls' to prevent traders trading shares the bank itself is involved in.  If people can get away with that in a regulated environment, then what about bitcoin exchanges where pretty much anything goes?  It's not a risk free trade for the exchange as they could be left with a bunch of bitcoins and have to pay out a mass of orders in dollars, but as mentioned the exchange gets to see everyone's orders first and can act accordingly.

I asked tux what they did with those bitcoins that they earn.  He said they don't trade them.  He said they hold them and use them to buy things like that polish exchange. 

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=630&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&
Bitcoin, last 3 months.

Since the bubble burst in early June, Bitcoin behavior has been quite consistent - the price drops about $4 per month.  There's volatility, but the 30 day moving average is a consistent downward line.  The "crashes" and "rallies" are just noise in a thinly traded market. The overall trend is a long, slow slide, as I've been pointing out for a while now.  After each bottom there's some recovery, but each bottom is lower than the previous one.

It's interesting that the decline is linear, not logarithmic. Now that we're down to $6, we can't go on losing $4 per month much longer, or the price would hit zero in late October.

http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/6222/bitcoinysis.png

I believe we are testing a strong historical area of support. If it goes below 5.80 the market is in free fall to 3 and maybe even below that. From a technical standpoint we are clearly seeing a falling triangle formation.

I have to agree with you here. if you draw an upward trendline you will see that we just broke the trendline in the past few days.

I've felt that!  Well, at least your money is going to other crypto-techno-nerd manipulators, not wall street manipulators.

I agree but I don't think it is very likely that we'll go below 5.80. Why? Because it would mean selling at a loss for most people.

Those who bought their coins would have had to hold onto them for over 4 months now to not make a loss (back in May was the last time you could buy coins for less). That group is either very greedy (not selling at 32 ;)) or very convinced of Bitcoin's long-term success and both groups will probably not sell now either.

Those who mine their coins at current difficulty-levels and can still sell them at a profit below 5.80 are in a minority (most of the non-US world dropped out of mining quite a while ago). That leaves the speculating miners who hold on to their mined coins for over 1-2 months (back when difficulty was significantly lower).

So unless we have another panic I don't see the price just "drifting" much below 5.80.

Of course he said that. You think he'd tell the truth? Who's going to check it anyway, it's unregulated.

so in other words, you don't think it is very likely that most people would have to sell at a loss?

that happens all the time in all sorts of markets!

Not to mention that not selling @ 5.80 will mean selling at an ever GREATER loss later on.

Lick lick, nibble nibble, that $5.95 wall is being tried and sampled, taste tested and masticated.  Only a matter of time before it retreats to $5.75.  Then we begin again.

Someone just slammed 2500 coins into the 5.95 wall...

Funny enough I saw the 2500 coin trade pop up on mtgoxlive and the wall crumbling down.

However the volume never showed up on the market price. Very strange


And while I'm typing this, we're in free fall to 5.4 5.3

Someone found that wall to be bitter.  $5.40, and off we go again.

Holy crap. Thousands of coins now being dumped...

I'm just waiting for someone to post a log graph dating back to mid 2010 to show we're still in a bull market today...

:D :D :D

The volume is amazing and it's happening right now.  I'm so glad I sold when I did.  Now I have lots of room to identify the bottom.  I can see us under $5.00 in a matter of minutes as people wake up in the US and dump.

We already went from 6.00 to 5.25 in a matter of seconds.

It's the VOLUME.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vA_UfZnqBco

You know when you just in an elevator that's accelerating downward, you feel weightless for a brief second?  That's what I feel like when I see someone drop 23,000 coins all at once while I'm holding coins.  Whee!

Hold on tight or the g-forces from the fast descent will rip them out of your hands. Or they become weightless when we smack down at 0 ;)

Chill out guys.  The price is only ~6 times less than the high.

This is a beautiful game of pong being played right now.  :D

https://i.imgur.com/C9V2l.png

80% off!  All bitcoins 80% off!  It sounds like a rug sale.

Who is still hodling?

Holy necro! Smoothie was a bear and Proudhon rather bullish back then.  :o

Yeah, and look just how ignorant this guy's post turned out to be.  According to current 2014 log graphs we're still in a bull market today.

This is the reason I completely ignore bears and trolls on this sub, and will continue to do so for years into the future.

Bitcoin crashed from 7 to 2 USD between September '11 and November '11. So, technically he did not make a bad call. There's nothing wrong with being temporarily bearish on bitcoin.

Dalmar, that wasn't just a slight bearish remark about a temporary setback.  Cluster2k's comment was a condescending troll remark that was basically saying "You all are absolute fools if you think that bitcoin is still in a long term exponential bull trend from it's beginning."  It was so wrong then, and is so wrong today, that it's almost criminal.  It's the attitude that just about every bear on this board has today.

someone needs to edit thread to say $600 not $6.00

I have my moments. Looks like I was right in the short term.

Bullish now. Bearish waaaaay back then.

Done.  :D :D :D

People do not understanding the fundamentals can easily misinterpret technical analysis.

Technical analysis is about emotion of the market participants, fundamental analysis is about hard truths.
Both are needed and useful.

(fixed)

lol, i didn´t catch the "today" in your post and was kinda surprised that "hodling" was used in 2011   :D

Nah...if you just leave it alone it will be correct in a few weeks.

I love what you did there smoothie ;)

What is the time frame for the 6k price call?

Never. Maybe 1000 someday.

Hard to see it going back to 1000 when the price is at 620.

Maybe if Amazon announce they will accept bitcoin, price goes up two folds in an instance.

Look at the logarithmic charts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1)

So according to this graph, I buy $200 worth of bitcoin today and wait to the end of 2015 to get at least 30,000 in return. Nice. Why isn't everyone rushing into this?

Poor people should buy $6 worth of Bitcoin, at the end of 2015 they'll have 1,000

Below-average income people should buy $60 worth of bicoin, return of 10,000

Good-income people should buy a Bitcoin, return of 100,000 by 2015.

Carlos Slim should buy 6000 BTC, he'll have 600,000,000

Satoshi could have 1,000,000,000,000.

Because the average Joe six-pack has no knowledge of how exponential growth works.  At all, period.  All they can see is what is happening today, and maybe tomorrow.  That's it.  Hell, most didn't even pass rudimentary math in high school.

Most people that knew of bitcoin 2-3 years ago had the same lack of knowledge and vision.  They never thought that bitcoin would get beyond $10, even in 5 years.  They weren't able to extrapolate shit.  So they didn't buy any.

Tim Draper didn't buy $27M worth of bitcoin, hoping it would be worth only $28M in 5-10 years.  Or even double at $54M.  If that is all the potential that bitcoin has, it would be the absolute worst investment of his entire VC career.

Wobber, you really need to quit trying to insult the intelligence of those who have bought bitcoin and understand exponential growth.  You're just making yourself look more like a fool.

Well, it was also hard for me to see it going back to 250 from 100. But it did :)

Yeah only the first time its hard, later you will be used to see this price swings in bitcoin until it reaches a big market cap.

In reality, these swings are pretty common if you are accustomed to financial markets.

Banking shares, in Italy, went down 90%  in a couple of years.
So, if someone had shorted these shares, they would have a 10x return in just a couple of years.
But people need to know what they are doing, see what others do not see, and bet against known popular fallacies.

Man, Blitz is such a Perma-Blitz.

I really like your chart there.  Nicely done.

There never was a 6k call.

I made my 5k call to be by the end of 2014.

We will see if I am right.

The reason is the same as when people were not buying Litecoin at half a penny in 2012. The price was depressed and that drove people away.

The same is right now. When people lose money by making bad trades they are forced to find another means to make income they lost and that usually is in the form of a day job. So they leave the community to focus on their financial well-being and then return when the news sites are saying "Bitcoin just hit $5000"...then the cycle repeats.

Most people who have money to invest do not invest until the market is already going up.

My attitude is stay the course if you can afford to. But make sure you do your homework before investing and make your own decisions.

Its very interesting when markets get logarithmic :P

I would be very very happy if price gets to 3000 soon. Like in about 2 months.

Espirito Santo might well help you out a bit there. (Like, say make that "2 weeks" ? :) )

So, people expecting 10 folds increase in price because?

Because Fiat is highly levered credit money = 1 seat for 10 people
Bitcoin is unlevered base money = 10 seats for 10 people

Because why not?  It's already sitting at >100 fold over two years.  What's another 10?

Ha ha. Now in 2014 and look at the price. :)

Dat would be awesome