Bitcoin Forum

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Gee I wonder why you got those replies   ::)

anyone got a chart to post on the recent stock market crash?

excellent point, well rounded with facts and citations that clearly demonstrate a full and complete understandi

The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.

what are you +1ing? nagle is objectively correct.

i can see how someone got up to their 464 post sr. member status.  

yes, please, everyone get out so I can buy MOOOOOOOR  ;D

Why buy at $7 if you can buy at $5.25?
Why buy at $5.24 if you can buy at $4?
Why buy at $4 if you can buy at $3?
.
.
.
People are going to keep pressing their luck until someone decides it's time to buy big, and the procrastinators lose out big time.


The big dogs could bring the price up to $10 right now if they wanted to, which means double the value than $5.25 for them. Saw someone with a 17,000 btc bid at 5.25 earlier.

you back in now?  :o

Or.... everyone wants in, but at a lower price...

Like GeniuSxBoY said, there are people out there ready to buy BIG into Bitcoin. The question is where.

Don't blink.

remember - get out now!   sell low and buy high.

Seems right the right decision. We need to lose money in order to make money!!!

Question: Why buy now when I can buy all 7 million Bitcoins for $700 when it falls to $.0001?
Answer: Because everyone else is thinking the same thing.

nagle said the bubble would burst "all the way". So he's not technically correct, is he?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png
Current Mt. Gox market depth

Wow. That's new in the last few hours. It looks like people got up today, checked the prices, and panicked.

(Yes, there will probably be some rebound, but in the last three months, the rebound never entirely recovered the previous drop.)

But that assumes perfect trading which we know is not possible. Buying in at the wrong moment
just means you needed to sell at a loss to try again. Picking the spot to catch the falling knife for
just a few moments to catch a small upswing is not exactly easy.

Unless you have a strategy I am not thinking of which is very possible.

----------

And I am out. No more BTC for me. It was fun trying to trade but I sucked at it for the last week.
Nice way to lose enough money for a really fancy dinner out on a Saturday night. Probably dropped
a 100 bucks in the last week with losses. Sent the money to dwolla.

But eh.. i get free electricity at the colo due to my job and my 2.6 gh/s will create more BTC soon
enough to putz around with. Hope difficulty drops over the next month.

C'est la vie.

Right. Trying to trade noise is futile. Read "A Random Walk down Wall Street".

See, but no one wants in at $10. No one who's not in bitcoins now wants in at all.

There is no "big dog" to save you guys.

But...but...the fundamentals are sound!

Not even the manipulator can save you now.

What do you mean?  There's another fake bid wall at $4 now.

Oh wait, I found the big dogs

http://www.bigdogs.com/shared/images/products/1101-2974-100.jpg

If that was the manipulator the bid wall would be bigger.

http://i158.photobucket.com/albums/t153/melman2002/market.jpg
This resembles something...hmm...

I LOL'd.

Actually, taking into account that bitcoincharts isn't showing ANY activity <$4 I have a suspicion that it's not a wall at all, but rather the sum total of all holder who simply don't believe it will drop below $4.

*edit* wait, wait, no.  It's a wall:
$4.00    BTC:3461 (3)    $73616    

Two of those orders are 20BTC and 10BTC accordingly, leaving one giant wall of ~$73k.  So unless somebody's foolish enough to actually want to spend $73k I'd bet that wall will disappear just like all the other ones did.

How can bit walls be fake?

They must have the funds to place them and if they are got hit the transaction is done.

Let's crash that bidwall!  Come out person with 22000 coins.  Send them to me and I will crash it then buy it back lower and give you the difference (plus I'll buy back some lower too with my own funds!)

Trading bots remove them as price moves closer so that they are not executed.

SOme people gotta lose $ in order for others to win $.

Well I must be psychic because *POOF* the $4 wall has vanished.

Yes, the person putting up the wall (mtgox) has to hold enough to cover it, but since it's fake, and there's no intent to follow through, the wall disappears (gets cancelled) before any trades get close to filling the order.

https://i.imgur.com/dHqUa.png (http://imgur.com/dHqUa)

I get the disticnt feeling that we are merely in the eye of the storm...

We are... there is more downside to come...

+1 (so many losers, so few winners)

Ok. You are right. The order book is basically nonsense because you do not have to pay to put
up or take down an order.

But what else can you make judgments by? That bitcoin seems to be a ponzi scheme right now
and anyone with an ounce of common sense would sell? Well that seems like good advice/trade.

When would you buy back in? When type of trade are you trying to make? Get in and out making
a few cents per BTC?

Excellent point, I responded to the OP's "If you're not out, get out.", No, I'm gonna keep mining.


o.o, What does your reply have anything to do with the OP's thread?  I can see how someone got up to their 207 posts full member status.

Indeed, people are losing interest.  There are no billionaire investors waiting to cash in, just people desperate to get rich like the early adopters did.  Somebody's gotta lose money. 

More Bitcoins for me.

I for one believe, at the current market fundamentals, that under $5 is unsustainable in the long term. I'm already waiting for my bank transfer to MtGox to clear so I can take advantage of the low prices, but I fear everyone else is racing against me to the cheap coins.

It may dip to anomalous lows because there's too little fiat money left on the exchanges. Friday was just too wild. I can't comprehend why anyone would be desperate enough to dump such huge amounts of BTC when there's so little support for the prices.

Chances are there will be a window of opportunity for about a week or so, and it might go even lower.

By publicly announcing your intentions with 'oh no, other people are going to beat me to the bargains' I can't help but feel you've already got quite a large number of bitcoins, or have recently purchased some and are looking to pump the price higher.


So little support for them being this high, or this low?  We can use mining costs to support the price of bitcoins.  If you're in Europe or Australia then $4.75 is already below electricity costs.  American miners may stick in the game for longer.  But with over 7 million bitcoins already out there, there are more than enough for people to speculate with even if not a single extra bitcoin was created from today onwards.  Remember, at least a few million bitcoins were generated when the price was sub $1.  There is price support for bitcoins, but it's nowhere near as high as $5.

Nah, I own some bitcoins but I use them more as a long term hedging strategy against the hypothetical scenario where BTCs become a much more useful currency than they're now. In that case they would be much more valuable too. I'm not betting all my savings on that.

But that hypothetical scenario is becoming more and more likely as time passes and no fundamental technical problems are found within the bitcoin network. I'm pretty much only waiting for the scalability enhancements to be implemented, I think the scalability issues are the only hard limits on the usefulness of bitcoin at the moment.

And I am not going to invest huge amounts of money into bitcoin anyway. If it drops lower than I've expected, I'll buy more of it.

I just stated my speculative opinion about what I think of current prices.

Well, the L1 data is mostly sound.

Jeez...I had to double-check that I did not write the above prose.

I had some 'absurd low' bids in that got taken out.  Put in a few more (and the number of BTC that I pick up if those get snagged is higher due to the much lower price.)

I'd change the topic to "If you're not in, get in."

It's fairly evident to me that the bubble has deflated. I'm expecting that next week we'll finally see a change in the trends and there will actually be at least one rally of decent volume. With the current size of the Bitcoin economy, which is 7 times larger than at the beginning of 2011, I consider any price lower than $5 a low one because the Bitcoin economy at this stage should be able to fundamentally have a price of $5 at least.

That being said, I do plan on buying more coins if I can get money in before the price is still visiting the below $5 range. Will I buy at higher than $5, that'll depend on the trends and what kind of rally's we'll see in the weeks to come. This will be a very interesting month I believe.

This!

SELL SELL SELL

IMO the most hyperbolic speculators are confused.  The exchanges are modeled after forex, and forex is a very useful analogy that almost always suffices when talking and even speculating about BTCUSD or BTC-Gold or what-have-you.

But, when one's purpose is to analyze the macroeconomics of Bitcoin and develop long term real price movement expectations the "currency" analogy breaks down.

First, BTC has no intrinsic value basis.  In fact, as with fiat currency, there is arguably an intrinsic negative real value expectation since there are costs associated with printing and carrying around and so forth (although these ultimately must be weighed against the real costs of the barter system which are clearly quite significant!)

Second, expected long-term intrinsic minting costs are (arguably) much higher with respect to BTC than typical fiat currencies, by design.  So much so, I would argue, that a "backed" currency (like, say, USD in late 19th and early 20th century) is clearly a far better analogy.

Third, even this model is deficient since, although not huge, gold, being shiny, malleable, conductive and so forth, does have real intrinsic value which creates a kind of "speculative floor."  Even if somebody figures out how to effortlessly fabricate gold from dirt, it will still retain some value because there will always be a market for it so long as civilization has not utterly collapsed.  Bitcoin has no such intrinsic value.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we are modelling rational expectations, then the near-guarantee of scarcity and relative-to-aggregate supply-side minting difficulty (barring, I suppose, dramatic and unexpected advances in crypto-math) forms the sole basis for for any speculation about long-term price movements, by way of a demand function determined solely by the utility of BTC as a means of exchange and storage of wealth.

This means, I think, that our mid-to-long term expectations of real Bitcoin prices won't follow the same patterns that we are accustomed to seeing in forex or commodities markets.

Put another way, who fucking knows what will happen!?  It's fascinating to speculate about, but any sort of "return-to-mean, ldo" hypothesis, intrinsic value hypothesis or other chart-whisperer hypothesis probably has no basis here.  We need to think way, way outside of those boxes because the supply and demand functions of Bitcoin don't answer to the same fundamentals we are accustomed to seeing in other commodities.

I model it as a random jog - it's far more volatile than a random walk  ;D

I'm not selling. It gets my mind in the wrong mindset and I end up in the bear trap when the market takes off again. At the moment I am using fiat money to pay down personal debts and am trading the alternates to increase my BTC count. When I am ready I will buy a more BTC. At the moment I buy some from a miner that I know in real life as he is a good friend but he only produces 1 BTC a day and kind of wants to just pay off his rig and get out. I tell him what I make trading the BTC he sells me and he is interested but I warn him to be careful.

The cipher geeks say bitcoin is a good idea. Economists are almost always wrong anyway, so I'll stay with the smart money and bitcoin.

Please, keep making predictions

That's right. I don't know if I am getting smarter but I'm damn sure that my money is.

A lower price point at this difficulty sucks for miners, but is great for people looking to buy stuff like drugs from Silk Road.

They might be more willing to buy bitcoins at $5 a piece than 20 bucks.

Surawit, I have no excuses. I was wrong with my predictions of the daily low's. However, that data is only relevant to daytraders. In most long term charts those spikes won't even be visible. I'm personally more interested in the big picture. My predictions on the big picture haven't failed, and I still stand by them. There hasn't been a stable price below $5, not even for 24 hours. And there won't be while the Bitcoin economy is as big as it is now.

I was also predicting the first high volume rally in a long time to come this week, but it already came yesterday. The big picture looks really good right now and there is reason to believe that the 4.18 was the bottom. Now is a very good time to buy, at $5.x at least.

And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, I'm currently just waiting for the price to drop a little to buy.

If you're looking to buy drugs from Silk Road, I highly doubt a variance in Bitcoin price is really going to hinder or appeal to you. If I want pot, I'll buy bitcoins if I need them, regardless of the price of Bitcoins; everything on Silk Road is going to vary anyways depending on the Bitcoin value.

Is the transaction itself illegal because it is payment for illegal goods?

It's even more interesting if you go back further in Technomage's posts: "We'll be back to $13-14 by end of week. Know how I know?" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34227.msg430814#msg430814)  "I seriously doubt a price lower than $9 unless there is a further decrease in rate of adoption and more bad news."  --  Technomage, August 5, 2011.

Nothing wrong with my prediction there, just need to read the important part. We've had plenty of bad news and further decrease in the size of the economy. Too early to say just yet, but this month could be the one where the degrowth levels off completely. Next month at the latest. What we've seen now is nothing other than a massive bubble bursting.

This is the graph I use when talking about the size of the economy, btw: http://pi.uk.com/bitcoin/charts/n-transactions

Oh my.......that says more about you then you'll ever want to admit. But ultimately should bitcoin fail, you'll lose your outlet.

On the other hand.....should you care to engage the people here, you might get something more satisfying such as the discussion this thread has generated.

Ultimately we are all adults responsible for our actions and the risks we take. If people choose to place money in a risky investment such as bitcoin, and then add further to that risk by not actively managing their investment(holding) meaning they can't protect themselves against fall's in value.......then isn't it solely their responsibility?

At all times during my involvement with bitcoin, I have known the risk of total loss, and that risk remains. However I choose to embrace and live with that risk because as an IT professional I understand the technology and see it as worth the risk.

I am responsible.

I choose bitcoin of my own volition and there was no ponzi salesman involved.
Should I lose my money, I'll still have my health and my friends and family will not be any worse off for my choice.

I should suffer because I am willing to undertake a risk of my own choosing that you disagree with?

And everything Chodpoda said..... +1^1000

+1

lol you only want to buy cheap coins
longterm is intact!

+1^1000 = +1

Oh, and YoYa, please change your profile picture. After having seen the bitcoin-related videos of this person (example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko5lOc4nsac), I cannot take your posts seriously, even though I know you're not him. ^^

How long does a graph have to keep going down before the short term becomes long term?  Sure, bitcoins were once worth a few cents each, now they're worth $6.  Fantastic.  We're in a massive bull market.  Only problem is they were worth $30+ a few months ago.  Anyone who got bitcoins before March is probably still smiling.  The rest are rather unhappy.

It all depends on the time period you're willing to choose.  For example, Citigroup's share price is actually stable and there's nothing wrong with the stock.  The company has no problems... if you're willing to compare the share price today to what it was 20 years ago.  The stock hit $500+ in the meantime, but we shouldn't be worried by that.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:C

My long term outlook will change if BTC stays under $4 for a month. This would, in my opinion, signify that bitcoin's long term adoption rate has weakened substantially.

Still, this will not mean BTC won't be worth $100 or $1000 or more in 10 years.

And if BTC stays above $5 for the rest of the year this will not mean bitcoin will not ultimately fail.

+1

This is pretty much what I think as well. With the current fundamentals (namely the size of the economy), I find a stable price below $5 very unlikely and if that were to happen it would signify bad things in my mind. A price below $4 for a month would make me a doomsday-bear. :)

So far the market has shown very strong bullish signs at below $5 and fairly bullish at below $5.5, at $6 the interest for buying seems to have died. This is where we're at, what happens next is interesting. I speculated on what could happen in the "$/BTC Time Series Analysis" thread.

Calling a bottom again?  I'm down with that.  Please deposit more money and catch this falling knife again, I've mined another coin to replace the one I sold at $6. =)

Deepbit is not losing much hashing power at all, which means almost everyone still mining has power as cheap if not cheaper than my 4.6 cents/kwhr (or about a buck eighty in pure power to make a BTC).  We'll mine another 210,000+ coins to sell over September, never fear!  $1.80 to $5 is still profitable.  $1.80 to $4 is still profitable.   $1.80 to $2 is still profitable.  And heck, looking at namecoin, I'd say people will still mine at $1.80 to sell at $1.25.

After that, well, depends on whether difficulty drops or not.

How stoned will one have to be to post something like this? Current miners do not drive the price. The profitability of mining or the network hashing power have no effect on the BTC/USD price. The price does affect them, but not vice versa.

I'll try to explain this so that it's understood. Every month, since Bitcoin started, the network has created 210 000 new coins. This will continue to happen for a little less than a year. The profitability of mining or the network hashing power has NO EFFECT ON THIS.

So we can see that there is a constant inflation rate regardless of anything and miners will be selling coins just like they have been selling coins in the past. Regardless of the fact that they sell coins at a constant pace, the price has gone all over the place. It has gone up, down, up, down and way up and way down. The effect miners cause is pretty much constant.

I'm not done yet. To put up some numbers to clearly illustrate the whole point, I checked the 30 day volumes of the 10 biggest markets from Bitcoin Charts. And by the way, this is not even close to the whole amount of coins sold because there are other ways to obtain/sell coins. The number I came up with is 1 374 000.

So how many coins are miners selling? That is unknown, some sell none, some sell everything and some save a portion. I like to usually call 50% but let's say for kicks that it's as high as 70%, and I can't think how in the world it could be higher, we come up with 147 000 miner coins sold within a 30 day period, on average.

The result is that we come up with a percentage which is a little shy of 11%. So the effect of all the miners in total is a whopping 11%. The other 89% of price movement comes from other sources, such as speculators, traders, investors, early adopters etc.

And this was calculated with the conservative 70% coins sold estimate. You can of course change that estimate and calculate again but the result will always be that miners have the smallest effect of all the types of players trading BTC/USD. You can also argue that the price affects how miners sell coins. That is true, for example I haven't sold a single mined coin after the price hit the current range and will not be selling anything in the short term because the expectation for a rise in the next few months is significant, and I'm in no hurry.

For the people who already sell 100% I'm pretty sure there's nothing that can make them sell more.

7200 coins a day is $1,000,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month available to be sold at $5.  If you don't understand how requiring TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS a year to keep bitcoin at $5 influences prices, well, I can see why you've had 100% failure to predict major bitcoin pricing trends so far, and I have had far more success.


And yet, as bitcoin mining became insanely profitable 75% of the current mining power joined and started selling as opposed to hoarding.  Another way to look at it: before May, less than 20% of mined bitcoins were sold.  After May, that percentage spiked WAY higher as people who got into this for dollars, not bitcoins, tried to pay for their investment -- people who currently make up vastly more of the network than the early guys.


Ever hear of velocity of money?  It doesn't matter that the same coin may have been traded multiple times that month, the fact remains.  Every month several million dollars worth of bitcoins were added to the supply.  Unless there was a corresponding increase in demand (and there hasn't) predictable things happened to pricing.


I've been selling even at current prices and can now buy back lower.  Just like I've been doing ever since June.  We can agree to disagree -- you can speculate expecting higher prices in spite of technicals and fundamentals indicating the exact opposite is more likely, I'll continue speculating expecting lower prices.  Let's see who comes out ahead "long term."  Just because I have no long position now doesn't mean I can't switch to a bullish strategy when it's clear we're on an uptrend, and having MORE dollars to do that with rather than fewer seems like a good thing.

Oh, and one more thing.  I never denied that bitcoin value is 100% derived from speculation.  With absolutely zero revenue and a $1000/hour cost to run the thing by definition it can't be anything else.  The question is: what kind off factors are influencing the mindset of said speculators at the moment?  IMO the requirement for a large influx of cash from new greater fools is currently one of the biggest.  Possible instability and flakiness of mtgox is good runner up.

As far as trading volume -- consider how much volume is generated by tradebots on mtgox.

The success of our predictions is an ad hominem argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem) which is a failure in argumentation. Also your attempt at changing the coin amount again to 7200 and moving to a yearly number doesn't change any of the calculations I did in my last post. I didn't say miners' coins don't have any effect, I said they have a small effect. Although I should probably talk about current miners because all coins are originally mined.

And if you don't think the same calculation applies, then think again. The monthly transactions in dollars from the 10 biggest trading sites is over 10 million, which is over 120 MILLION DOLLARS a year, "omg". This is just now, in Bitcoin's infancy. At this time next year this issue will be even less significant because there will be only 25 BTC per block.

This is true and obvious. In a declining economy an inflation of this sort will obviously "help" a price drop, but that's not the why, it's the what. Miners are selling coins, selling coins, selling coins, all the time. They might hold and sell more coins at certain times but still, the price moves mostly because the demand drops, traders and speculators decide to exit, etc.

If Bitcoin was based on some kind of ever increasing inflation scenario, then I'd be willing to say the inflation itself is actually the cause of the price dropping.

I have no problem with this. It's a good strategy if it works for you. I've made some coins trading as well, but mostly I'm not trading. Overall I'm a little bit down counting in fiat but I'm up significantly in coins. Now I'm mostly just holding and actually investing more when I can decide the correct point to buy. My interest is in the long term situation and investing according to that. I've only traded on a couple of clear mid-term trends, I've not moved on short-term for a long time, not my thing. It's usually too stressful.

Well, there are traders behind the trading bots. It's those traders, then, that move the price. But this is somewhat true that a portion of the volume means nothing, it's just constant back and forth for a very short term profit. How much of the volume is generated by this super short term trading is a good question. I have no clue but I'd certainly like to know. :)

Got any insights or guesses about where we are on that path, and/or what the curve looks like (that you wish to share on this public forum?)

7200BTC per day is the correct estimation.  You have 50BTC per 10 minutes - that is 6 * 50BTC = 300BTC per hour and 300 * 24 = 7200 per day.

I've been saying that since June 11, 2011 (http://www.downside.com/), three days after the bubble burst and the price had dropped from $30 to $17. "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been a long, slow slide for months now. Look at the current chart at the head of this topic. As I wrote there, "Any questions?"

Well - there is a revenue model - it is the same as with any other currency - or with any other payment system, the system enables new trades each one of them generates some profit.  Of course nobody even tries to come up with numbers for this - in that sense I agree that this is a bubble.

Amen. The whole notion that $4 or $5 is cheap while $30 would be high is, quite frankly, laughable. Its not a stock you can measure against P/E ratio's, its not a national currency you can measure against gross domestic product. There really isnt any yardstick.

Or maybe there is, its the amount of trade conducted with BTC. Any sustainable demand for BTC will come from trade (not speculation). At the moment, there is almost none. You cant buy a bloody thing with it, and next to no one uses it buy goods or services. As such, even $5 for a bitcoin today is probably way too high. $4.9 of that is speculation But its anyone's guess how much real world trade will be conducted using bitcoins over the next years. You can guess that fairly well with euro's or dollars, but no one can even have a clue  about BTC trade volume in 2013 let alone 2020. And that is what you need to know to make at least an educated guess about what BTCs should be worth. Give me that number and Ill tell you if $0.05 or $50,000 is high or low.

It's based on how much someone will pay for it.

I'd personally love to buy a million coins for $30 each and if I had $31 million dollars I seriously would.  ($1 million extra for the Gox fees).

I don't have pretty much anything moneywise to buy coins or I'd be buying them back to $8.

No, that is the spot price. Speculation of future value fuels it, panic removes it. Results are endless booms and busts looking for an equilibrium thats based on its value as a transaction tool, since it has no other intrinsic value.

The hashchain  can be used to validate the existence of any digital data. Just send some satoshis to it's hash.

No, it isn't. I was talking about the actual amount miners sell, not the amount that is mined. That was evident from my previous posts. It's obvious that the amount mined is 7200.

And the amount actually sold matters less than you think.  I can estimate that at a minimum 200k coins made their way to MtGox since the last hack until the hacks which caused the spike to 7.7 Sunday.   That was enough to bring us from $17.5 to $4.5.

What is more relevant is the total number of coins has increased, and continues increasing at a fairly steady rate.  Unless there's something to cause the total market cap of the bitcoin ecosystem to increase those 210,000 coins are monthly pressure to the downside. 

People are $35,000 richer today than yesterday, even if it's on paper.  Unless more money gets deposited to keep the pyramid propped up that value came from existing buy-and-holders.

I don't have hard numbers.   I do know we had 500k coins in MtGox's account when it was last hacked.  I do know 75% of mining power is new, and those people (like me) got in for dollars.  A million coins have been mined since the $32 high, and even .2% of that amount is enough to move the price 10% today.

We can agree to disagree but this doesn't change anything. Fact is that people were holding other 6 million coins while the seventh was mined. The miner effect is undoubtedly smaller, significantly smaller, than the effect from constant back and forth trade from traders and speculators, and the unloading of large amounts by early adopters and long term / mid term investors.

In fact, I think that recently the selling of stolen coins has been almost as significant as what the miners have sold. But this can be debated. I don't think that the miner effect is irrelevant, I simply think it's significantly overrated. Now, during the decline of the economy, the effect has been larger but it'll soon be negated (by increased demand) as it has been in the past.

Actually  not. Atm I'm feeling pretty good, at least semi-bullish and am thinking of another mining rig funded by the swings of the last week or so ;D

Yeah, everyone's bullish.  Hash rate starting to climb on deepbit.  But price isn't really going where I'd like to sell at. 

Permabulls need to stop talking up the price and start depositing more money.  A lot more.  And they need to do it before thanksgiving/xmas holidays hit and we get "the usual" just like we do every long weekend.

Bulls will deposit money into bitcoins if they see value.  No value?  No extra money.  Plenty of people are doing their utmost to talk bitcoins up on this forum, but only money truly counts.

I stopped mining and trading over a month ago. I transferred my USD to my bank and my remaining bitcoins are stored in an offline USB stick. I see them as free tokens, saved in the hope that something comes of bitcoin. I made more than enough money during the bubble to cover the costs of the hardware and electricity (and more).

At the moment, bitcoin is synonymous with scammers, cheats and thieves - or worse, dominated by people who have absolutely zero business acumen. I can see why the bubble is bursting.

Bitcoin is/was a good idea, but it was screwed over by greed, crime, incompetence and general human nature.

Will bitcoin survive? Only time will tell. I'm just very glad that I have no real money tied up in it any more.

Also:

No extra money = No extra money.

What i mean is there might be bulls that desperately WANT to put money in but don't have any spare at the moment.

+1 Some of us also have stupid funding times depending on our locations :(

Decentralised systems tend to take much longer to reach a satisfactory level of quality than systems created and controlled by an agent.  The mechanic of the first is evolution whereas that of the second is intelligent design.

Human nature is human nature, there's no getting away from it.  For me, Bitcoin is not so much synonymous with scammers, cheats, and thieves as it is with freedom and bravery.

Will Bitcoin survive? only time will tell.

TO OP, yes I think they are all suffering. I warned to.

Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!

I think it's worth noting that we are so much used to centralized systems that social associations with Bitcoin decentralized systems in general affects our judgement more than it needs to. Whatever associations Bitcoin might get to carry, whatever it will be traded for, it will still be there for us that have a legitimate and practical use for it. Some of us have been thinking about and hoping for such a system to arise for a long time. For someone who has been thinking about this before it happened, it's a too brilliant and elegant idea to just be left by itself. I would lose a huge portion of my hope for humanity if Bitcoin did die.

Congrats.
Did you short on bitcoinica?

whate else.

like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin (you must know it since you shortsell it to death, don't you?)

bitcointalk seems to me increasingly like a selffullfilling prophency of the bitcoin death. no more enthusiasms but increasing zynical shortselling and making profit with killing the only real quality alternative currency having potential to change world economy. great job! hope you greed makes you happy.

as long as a majority of members inside here play daytrader and shortbetter and whatever, but on the same hand are esotherikc "the bitcoin death is neeeear"-folks, i really really don't wonder why the course of BTC is sinking rapidly.

but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

..but that is nothing near fundamental conservative trading, that is just manipulating speculation, and you know that! so stop it. just don't paint the devil onto the wall all the time, it just helps the shortseller on bitoinca, nobody else!

thanks

Yes the power of positivity will bring btc back  ::)

Everybody hold hands!  We'll have a rally circle!

Let me stand up as one of the people who's glad to see it falling.

I don't want Bitcoin to die at all.  I just want the wild-eyed speculation that's turned it into a pyramid to die.  I'm after a decentralized transactional currency and until we have some stability here or in another cryptocurrency, I'm stuck doing my business with international wire transfers and other traditional banking bothers.  The longer people are hung up on trying to pump the price the longer I have to wait for the speculators to wash out of the market.


I've been talking fundamentals for a while, and here's my formula:

A = USD-value of goods and services purchased per day in BTC
B = Number of days buyers and sellers hold the coins before and after a transaction
C = Number of coins in circulation
D = Number of coins hoarded by (speculators/early adopters/whatever)

Fundamental price = A * B / (C - D)

When we hit that floor (I estimate it's well under a buck, probably in the low-cents range), it will not matter how much people preach doom and gloom; the price WILL stop falling, guaranteed.  It'll cushion well above that level (B and D will increase), but that's the hard floor.

Attempting to hold it higher by encouraging D while we're still far above the fundamental price increases volatility and increases the amount we're subsidizing miners, and ultimately just shifts who's holding the bag.

If you want a healthy market, focus on A.  As long as A increases, Bitcoin has a future, and the price will stabilize.  Without it, all the happy posts in the world won't save anything.

If you think that bitcoin is a quality currency that has potential to change the world then you are seriously delusioned.
..just saying.

  Totally agree with your reasoning on a conceptual level, but could you explain the product A*B in a little more detail?

some one go panic sell on virwox! :O i want to make more money!

Sure.

I'm starting with the assumption that Bitcoin is used for transactions, not as a long-term value store (though the formula allows a transition to a value store - B increases).  I think that's an accurate description of people who currently want to use Bitcoin for purchases - they trade fiat in, go shopping, buy their product, and the seller trades back to fiat.  The duration of "go shopping" is B, and the sum of everyone's daily "buy their product" is A.

A * B is the total value that needs to be stored in Bitcoins for this to occur.  It's somewhat related to the market cap.

---

An example in a highly stable, steady-state market:

Let's say that someone is selling paper clips for USD$1-equivalent, and they sell 3 per day, and that's the entire BTC economy.  A = $3 .  The average buyer obtains coins, shops for two days, spends, the seller holds them for one day, sells back to fiat on an exchange.  B = 3.  There are 30 total BTC that have been mined.  C = 30.  There are 12 BTC out of active circulation: some are lost, some are hoarded, whatever; they're not in use.  D = 12.

Each day you will see:

Buyer1 buys 6BTC at USD$0.50 (total USD$3.00)
Buyer2 holds 6BTC.
Buyer3 buys 3 paper clips for 6BTC.
Seller goes from 6BTC to 12BTC, then dumps 6BTC (yesterday's paperclip revenue) on the market for USD$0.50/BTC = USD$3.00.
Hoarder holds their 12BTC, same as always.

At the end of the day you have 12BTC between Buyer1 and Buyer2; Seller has 6 BTC, having sold his other 6 to Buyer1; Hoarder has 12 BTC; total 30 BTC.  The price holds steady at $0.50/BTC, as predicted by the formula: ($3 * 3) / (30 - 12) = ($9 stored value) / (18 coins) = $0.50 per BTC.  The cycle repeats each day.

---

So what happens if the numbers start changing?  

Let's drop the price to $0.25/BTC.  Seller raises his price to 4BTC/paperclip.  Buyer3 still wants his paperclips today, and Buyer2 knows he wants some soon, so they go back to the market and bid against Buyer1 to get some more BTCs to complete their purchase.  The price gets run up until it hits equilibrium again.

Let's raise the price to $1/BTC.  Seller lowers his price to 1BTC/paperclip.  If Seller is still dumping yesterday's revenues on the market, the price drops - more BTCs available, and buyers don't need as many, so supply+demand does its thing.  If Seller instead decides to hold, B increases, and the price stabilizes higher.  If he doesn't think it's stable long-term, he gradually trades out faster than his revenues come in - IE, B gradually decreases - and the market price gradually falls (along with his gradually raising his price BTC/paperclip).

Let's say there's a run on paperclips: Buyers now want 10BTC to buy 5 paperclips each (A=$5).  The BTC are not available on the exchange, so the USD/BTC (and BTC/paperclip) runs up until the market stores enough value for the buyers.  Assuming B remains at 3, the total value store required (A * B) is USD$15.  Thus the fundamental price goes to ($5 * 3) / (30-12) = USD$0.83/BTC.

---

So what do I want?  More A; that's your economy!  And more B - with stable value people will hold their BTC longer before cycling them back to fiat, perhaps even going through several product purchases between exchanges to fiat.

D is currently large, but shrinking due to capitulation; the rate of shrink directly forces the market down.  Fortunately there's a limited supply of D, and it will gradually become less of a factor.

My argument about the very low fundamental price comes down to B.  With current volatility, buyers don't want to hold their coins very long at all.  We just want to buy paperclips and leave the currency risk to the speculators.  B is extremely short (days at best), and that's going to seriously limit the price floor.

---

Want to try some real numbers?

A = USD$10,000 per day
B = 3 days
C = 7,500,000
D = 90% (generous!) = 6,750,000

Pf = (10,000 * 3) / (7,500,000 - 6,750,000) = $0.04

Ouch.  We won't actually hit that price, but figuring for a 10x cushion, $0.40 is completely plausible.  On the other hand it'll go lower if merchants don't adopt Bitcoin and A goes down.

Work on A, people, and stop fantasizing about bouncebacks and rockets to the moon.  It's not happening until the fundamentals improve.

Yes, get out. I want to buy 6 Million @ 0.1

There's no accurate way to measure them, but I can make some educated guesses.

A - How much money is going to BiddingPond, alpaca socks, Bit-Pay, TSR, donations to WikiLeaks, etc?  The auctions we can get a good estimate on (I haven't tried other than looking at them in an unscientific way), but the others are hard.   I'm guessing $300k/month = $10k/day, but perhaps that's a little conservative.  Does anyone think that there's more than $1M of purchase volume per month?

B - 3 days is based on my own use - I want to trade in, then spend my BTC ASAP.  However inconvenience (people buying BTC for cash in person, etc) means that they tend to be held longer.  The 1% friction is negligible in a market that sees 20% intraday volatility.

C - Known.  7,482,000 and slowly rising.

D - The best metric of velocity is Bitcoin Days Destroyed (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed), and we know what Gox's volume is, but that's still an incomplete picture: we can't tell how much of that is sold from Disillusioned Hoarders and Capitulating Speculators, or how much is bought by Buyers vs New Suckers; there aren't even clean lines between these archetypes, since we all have mixed goals.  I'm guessing that 90% of BTC is held for speculation for whatever reason, rather than to be spent purchasing goods and services.

You can push these numbers around some, but it's hard to make a realistic scenario for a sky-high Pf.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 4 months. Any questions?

I'm the original poster in this topic. I called the collapse of Bitcoin on June 11, 2011. (http://www.downside.com)  I wrote "Bitcoin, the new "digital currency", looks like a Ponzi scheme. Only Ponzi schemes chart like that. When Ponzi schemes crash, they crash fast, and they crash all the way." "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been all downhill since then. The price was $17 then. It's dropped $4 per month for the last four months.  It's at $2.52 now.

Our criterion for "Dead" on Downside was when the price was off 90% from the high. Bitcoin is now dead.

We warned you. You didn't listen.

If you have substantial cash in an exchange, get it out now. We're going to find out quite soon which exchanges have all the customer's cash and which don't.

Does this mean you are done posting now?

After all, why beat a dead horse?

+1

Thanks; that was the part I was missing.

NAGLE: YOU ARE THE MAN!!  I ALSO TRIED WARNING THESE CHUMPS A FEW MONTHS AGO.  THEY DIDN'T LISTEN.

TO THE REST OF YOU DENIERS: HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

I think Bitcoin is reborn when people like Nagle simply stop posting and forget about it.

In reality it is as far from dead it has ever been.

Maybe now a larger percentage of Bitcoin users will use it instead of thinking it's a good investment vehicle.

Change of hands is good for the long term.

What is funny is that I recall when btc dropped from $20ish to around $14, there were tools on the #bitcoin irc chat room telling everyone that the price would hit $75 by the end of the year.

They've all gone a bit quiet lately......

You honestly shouldn't trust what anyone says

Well, to be fair, they could be partially right. It's entirely possible that BTC will hit $75 some day in the future, but it definitely won't be this year. The funny thing with all the laughing at losers is that the iron stomach holders could eventually be the big winners, we simply don't know. You've only lost if you sell with a loss and don't buy back.

You have to keep in mind that the Bitcoin supply is expanding at 35% per year (7200 BTC generated every day with a current BTC supply of 7.5 million). This fact pushes the prices down, but it will not be for long. By 2013, the expansion of Bitcoin money supply will be reduced to around 10%. Most importantly, you can be sure that Bitcoins will be a scarce commodity.

The Bitcoin network has been designed in the elegant way of being self-sustainable. If the BTC/US$ rate goes down, difficulty adjusts accordingly and miners will keep the system alive at a rate for which they are satisfied to mine.

The Bitcoin protocol adjusts itself to the ups and downs of the exchange rate, so I am confident that Bitcoin will prevail, and I believe it may definitely be a really sound investment in the long term.

I am with you also, just read my previous posts, you will see I have been warning people since the $30 dollar mark. Had many threads specifically about warning people. So I am enjoying the drop full heart-idly. This makes my day so happy watching the price drop to nothing. All the hate I got for simply just trying to help people and save them money, was it really warranted?

We were right about bitcoin, they were wrong.

Now we can enjoy these chumps losing all their money.

 

I wrote my bubble post back on June 3, 2011: 
http://www.campusactivism.org/blog/node/351

I'm currently up 50% on my (very small) investment in bitcoinica.

I think this formula has a feedback loop. As bitcoin value halves, A will also half - causing the fundamental value to half, and so it's like a moving floor. Am I missing anything here?

I will outbid you at 0.11  :D

No, it's not worth keeping in mind. That 0.1% daily monetary inflation is insignificant to btc price movement which has depreciated 1.5% daily since June.

Looks like volatility is dying down, we're going to be doing the flatline stagnation thing.  Whew.  Time to enjoy a few well-deserved days of no 30% drops.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.

Bitcoin also had a few 25%+ intra day upward swings on the way down too.  Just one or two of those events could have wiped out any position with Bitcoinica.

The market is too small and immature to provide a serious short selling service.  I doubt one will thrive with the current volatility.

Moreover, it was only a couple of days ago that you could fund your bitcoinica account with BTC (as opposed to money).  Until then it was too much work for me to do that, even though I too was beating the bear drum.

The other problem with shorting: the money making premise is based on the fact that something is overvalued.  When there's no rational tie between pricing and value what's to keep it from becoming vastly more overvalued before it crashes?  5:1 leverage is very much a double edged sword.  You could get a margin call and lose a fortune while still being right.  

Add to that unlimited downside with limited upside and it takes iron discipline to trade short.  A short position is not something you can leave open while not looking.

Yeah, I like the breaks between the drops.  Oh, see you at $1.80 after the next drop.

' "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable."  '

These in a mocking tone from the OP are soooooo hilarious to me now  :D :D :D

Anyone reading this:  Nagle apparently hasn't been seen around here for awhile, so I dunno how he/she/it is doing and I genuinely hope it's "not too bad" ...  But it's just awesome on a personal note that for once in my mostly miserable life, I'm able to tell everyone I know and ever knew (about any arbitrary thing) that:  "I Told You So".  In a BIG way  :D

Seriously, I hope Nagle is ok.

Man, necro-bumping is fun!   ;D

There are tons of such doomsayers threads.  It is up to the individual to buy or sell.  Do not get influence by them.

We have to admit at that time, this kind of posts caused discomfort among everybody. BTC had never proved to be able to resist what he was facing: bubble pop followed by slow and continuous decline, negative media exposure, etc... We all knew it was not a "ponzi", but still, it was not empirically proved that it could resist the stress it was under.

This is why I always say that this is no 2011. This time the doomsayers are mocked. Most of the people is sure that BTC will rise again stronger sooner or later, even if it goes to single digits for a while (which won't happen IMO). The ones who sold, are just waiting for cheaper coins to load the truck. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" has empirically proved as a false statement, nobody with half a brain could say such a thing in 2013. In 2011 it was different.

Bubbles have to burst all the way down before growth is resumed. But this time the bottom will be higher than most 2011-butthurt-bears expect.

Just want to point out for clarity's sake that this thread was very recently necrobumped from 9/2011

So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months :(

Few people in the thread were entirely right. Nagle certainly wasn't.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2011-09-11&e=2011-11-18&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

He called bitcoin "dead" $0.52 and 30 days away from the two year low from which we haven't come remotely close to having seen again.

This is the best call in the entire thread.


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=1&s=2011-09-11&e=2013-06-13&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Turn that frown upside down!  This is a happy necrobump!  ;D  :D  ;)

I don't know, people seem to focus too much on OMG LOL 5 DOLLA WAS EXPENSIVE AND NOW ITS 100!!1111 instead of the fact that people who listened, waited for two months and invested only after the long-term sideways motion began and full capitulation phase was reached (1/16) from the top made much much much more money.

Agreed (with your entire post; I just snipped it for readability)

This was shortly before that meelba incident too... or around the same time.  Bitcoinica provided a great service... in a real bear market.  Wonder how Bitfinex is doing...

Why not get out of US dollar market that depends solely on 70 percent of  American consumers. :) Anyways bitcoin was worth nothing when it started and I could read 4 year old literature which pegs bitcoin to 15 dollars. :D

Someone mentioned it recently, that the 2013 "bubble" deflate is more like the August 2012 shock than the 2011 bubble.
If so, then it could easily oscillate around $100-$120 for the rest of year, only to begin a further climb in 2014.

In that case more than a bubble deflating it would just have been a correction.

Honestly, that could be still possible, but I don't think so - the hype cycle and speculative mania in March-April was so blatant I doubt we won't see further visits to $80, possibly $50, I won't even discard going deeper than $50 for a bit (but not much deeper, and if I'd have to take a bet, I'd bet that we won't go lower than $50).

This hype cycles always work the same, a lot of new guys are attracted by the parabolic growth, fiat start flowing to exchanges like a river in the rain season, and when the price crashes that money flow just slowly drains out... It's a slow process, fiat pours out of the exchanges slowly, but it pours out because so many of the new guys entered the market just for the quick buck.

Still, there is significant % of the guys attracted by the hype that end up understanding BTC, and they fell in love with it... The core of hardcore-believers is growing, even if the fiat is slowly pouring out. So, we will probably see very cheap coins soon, but nevertheless Bitcoin is stronger than ever.

Yes. Makes sense.
I think the recent 136 is an important level. If it can top it then the bull-market is still very much on. Similarly, if the recent 88 is breached then a real bear-market is underway.

I agree.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940.466666&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=200&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=1&


shortly:
When I look at the development of Bitcoin prices for 12 months:

Last year in June, it was possible to buy Bitcoin for around $ 5
In January this year about $ 15
in April this year about $ 55
now $ 88

Even if it was half the price than it is now, it would be appreciation of 900%.
This is not a bad investment for me ;)

I think Bitcoin it's been a good investment for 99% of the members on this forum. Some noob may have bought at $200 and panic-sold at a loss after the April, 10th crash, getting burned, but IMO that would have been a terrible mistake, as they should have just holded or played with the market to lower their average entry price. Bitcoin's minimum potential is 5 figures of $ per Bitcoin, everybody with half a brain understands that, but it is not a get-rich-quick scheme. There is high volatility and high risks, but also huge potential gains.

I am not much into necrothreads, but I am 100,0% sure we find "Bitcoin is dead" threads with you as OP from 2011.

I have similar thinking. My trigger levels are farther away, though: $149 for bull and $80 for bear, based on an old analysis from early May which is still valid imo.

Where were they when bitcoins reached 200 dollars. Speculators are just out there to show the world that they are imbeciles. They cannot sense how the world perceives them because they are imbeciles.

Hello Nagle,

I just made a transaction and it perfectly works. You are wrong. I'm not suffering.

Goodbye.

$20-$30 looks reasonable to me if we discount that bubble

Echoes of the past can't be used to predict the future of Bitcoin. It is not a corporation and it doesn't move like it is a corporation.

If you are not out then stay inside. Stay out of the crowd. They think ANOVA or analysis of variance is their forte. Well they haven't even heard of it. 

Y'all really know how to hurt a guy by bringing back all these Nagle threads.

I'll say it again: Nagle is an idiot!

He didn't make a right call, what he was saying can never be defined as a "call", just saying it's going to go down doesn't make it a "call", to make a call he has to give a target a priori, which he didn't, it's all hindsight.

Well, have fun with your soon to be worthless fiat money then OP. :o

I mean in the vernacular sense.

Nagle said Bitcoin was dead, and evorhees said he and others were still building it. Evorhees was correct and Nagle was incorrect.

This statement has been true everyday since Bitcoin's conception :)

It's funny that the image in the OP is the 2013 chart, not the 2011 one.

I think somebody edited that first post.  ;)

bitcoincharts image are dynamic.  ;)

Oops, should have checked the source. I was sure it was a screenshot  ;D

Sorry for the disturbance, please continue the bear-bull fight.

If you're not out, get out.  :D

If you're not out, get out... of fiat.  :D

Low volume and general public losing interest is a worry.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232733.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232733.0)

+1

arg I almost feel bad for keeping this thread alive...
Oh well, at least I was there when it happened.

With everything collapsing against the USD, worst advice ever. :D

Crazy that just knowing interest rates have to go up sooner or later is causing the dollar to shoot up now, as much as it is

are you basing this on a graph?

anyone remember
 Smart Money has left the building… Have you? (http://this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61101.60)

The Bitcoin will never completely collapse as long as sites like the Silkroad and Atlantis are still active. These are the sites that for the most part fuel the bitcoin and will keep it growing. You want an indication of price then look at how well these sites are doing  8)

I was unaware that the USD was the only fiat currency in existence, and that a statement referring to all fiat currencies must be directed specifically at the USD....

Do I sense an AMUR'KAN in the room?  ;D ;D ;D

USD is the reserve currency of the world.

Makes sense to assume one is talking about it when using the term "fiat".

No, I am European (Euro country). But yes, the USD is obviously insignificant on a global scale. ::)

All the fiat currencies are racing to the bottom together in this "currency war".

So it makes sense to throw them all in one bucket. It's all basically the same crap, just different color paper.

The current deflationary scare and subsequent rise in fiat value compared to all asset classes is temporary. The central banks cannot taper without too much pain.

There will be some sort of currency reform, I'm pretty sure.

Nagle you can come out now.
Air is clear!  ;)

im out but ive saved 600k of BTC for price of 5000$

The OP is from 2 years ago why is this thread even active.... had you listened to this advice 2 yrs ago and sold out you would have lost a ton of cash

Only if you didn't buy back in. The point is that you have that choice during a downtrend.

Never keep your eggs in one basket. Litecoin appears to be doing just fine! lol

It does, I bought back in at a recent low.

You've made a couple of good calls about alts in the past - what do you think about DGC ?

If you're not out, get out.

YOu became the bigger bullshitter than rpietila and that's some achievement.

you are so wrong sir, but live in your dream :)

It never went to $1. It went to $1.98, and to buying back at that price was some sheer luck by someone who got his bids placed there

I did (or very close to $2 on the up-side.)  I would not call it luck exactly.  I had to keep buying as the price continued to decline in order to hit the bottom which took some balls.  I ended up with far more BTC than I ever expected to have.  I would have made one more buy if we got into the $1.50 range (and probably still would for that matter.)

I calculated and intuited that the value of the solution in a general sense was much higher than the prices I was buying at, and BTC fell to a much lower number than I would guessed they might.  I also expected that it was more likely than not that I would lose all the money I put in so I kissed the money goodbye in real-time as I speculated.

Relatedly, back when I was buying I decided to 'get whole' when I could do so for less than a 10% loss of my BTC holdings.  This I did.

I decided to take my actual winnings when we got into the 1000-X range (i.e, $2 --> $2000).  I'm still waiting and still considering it to be less likely than a near total loss.  But since I am already 'made whole', I can sell at $0.01 and be ahead.

I estimate that it is more likely that this down-leg will pay off than the 2011 one since the solution is more mature and well tested reducing that risk.  But of course it will be more difficult to obtain the kind of BTC than in 2011.

We are definitely in a capitulation cycle. It won't last long because Bitcoin is getting strong and will not be ignored. Bitcoin needs to ROAR!!!

I see either hope (meaning capitulation has already happened) or fear, I don't see real capitulation right now... what leads you to think so? I don't see many dumping their BTC any more

Indeed.  Very few people were even cautiously optimistic by the $2.00 bottom in 2011, and that here on this forum which is Bitcoin-centric.  In more mainstream-land Bitcoin was either completely forgotten about or talked about as something which was already a historical footnote.  I see nothing like that sentiment currently, and don't expect it for a while.

I flushed all of my bitcoins down the toilet.

That would be a great hiding place. If I did that I would have to make sure the honey wagon doesn't suck them up.

If you're not out, get out.

Shake shake .... some bears must still be in here.

rpietila wasn't lying like that. He really did believe his 300$/mBTC prediction and he never lied about his holding afaik.

You thought he did, which means he might have just been doing a good job at fooling you.

OP...so funny.

I am not doing good yet, I admit it. But I still think that it is possible, that bitcoin reaches the importance of gold. Most of you don't think that gold is very important, yet bitcoin does not really need to conquer fiat to reach $300, gold is enough.

I agree it's possible, likely even, but not this year, and not the next 5 years. This stuff takes time, people are reigned by habit and singularities simply don't happen.

good thing i didnt get out when i first saw this message, i would have sold low to have to buy back high. 

Looks like Bitcoin has seen its day.

Oh no do you think it's too late to get out now??

If you're not out, get out (of the United States).

+1

Detroit bankrupt 49 more to go.

49 what?

Detroit is not a state, and there are way more than 50 cities.

49 of the 50 most populous cities with at least two t's in the name.

lol  ;D get out

Poor Nagle, pockets full of fiat, feeling lonely and sad because he was left behind and missed the choo choo train...

Full of no sense....let's go back to you fiats and high-weighted Gold... See you ~~

Ahh, Nagle in 2011.

Nagle in 2013 is now xhamstering his wishes into a Lehmann collapse of MtGox.

/facepalm

Almost as bad as the guy who thought there were 52 states.

You mean the 48 contiguous states plus Alaska, Canada, Hawaii and Mexico?

 ;D

I thought it was Alaska, Hawaii, Iraq and Afghanistan...

if the price falls forever i will be the last one to get out :)

the ONLY thing that will ever cause me to sell my bitcoins ever is a substantial appreciation in price

If price falls by 99% that still like 1% profit, amirite???

BTC is going to $10,000 then $100,000. Maybe higher.

Just buy now. The higher the price, the more you can brag to your friends later that you bought when everyone said it was crazy to do so AND YOU PROVED THEM ALL WRONG.

Bragging rights = priceless.

BUY BUY BUY

 :D :D :D

Wait for tomorrow, will be cheaper.
Or maybe wait for the day after...  ;D

necrothread ftw

Wow, this guy seems to know a thing or two about investment! Did any of you listen to his advice? Or are you suffering because you didn't? ;)

I guess this guy is going to hanging his self...

Lol.  Where is this super smart guy lately?

Okay, this chart is a cross post, but what the heck, it belongs here.

It shows that buyers are stepping in whenever there is profit taking. The same thing happened at 899 and 900 pricing. Buyers overwhelmed all the sell orders posted there.

But -- at this point in the life of bitcoin (especially), you should not stop being vigilant if you have open positions or large holdings. {End Of Disclaimer}

And now for your regularly scheduled entertainment...

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/BitcoinBuyers1126.png

If you have been paying attention(which you shouldn't ;)), he is still happily trolling away like nothing had happened.

i wonder if he really cashed out.. and if he did, he'll be super pissed off and bitter about BTC, so he'll just continue badmouthing it  :D

oh man I love these necros, keep 'em coming

and to the OP

hahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAgurk cough cough HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

SELL SELL SELL

IIRC, the guy let it slip that he did his buy-in at around $2.  Timed it almost perfectly.  Before that he was talking down the market (I always felt ineffectively) and right after that, he shut up for a long long time.  He woke up again to try to talk things down briefly after the early 2013 spike, but didn't stick around long.  His best work happened from mid to end of 2011.  God only knows how much he made if he bought at the late 2011 bottom rather than a series of double-downs as I did.

Lately he's been mostly trying to get people (including yours truly) to sue Mt. Gox for some reason.

Then I guess you hadn't followed him for long enough though.

He still tried to talk down the market after the bottom, check out his posts.

But then again, I take off my hat to you guys who just want to give everyone credit and say nothing but good things after you have sealed your win.

Yep Id agree with this bear sentiment right now

Still in bear territory for sure

LOL, wonder if the OP got "out"?

Lovely thread.

Lol how wrong you were long term.

Someone keep pumping old thread for some reasons?

the reason is: to laugh learn...

He was right on the short term. From 4.2$ on the 9th September to 2$ in October.
I fixed the chart, so people better understand what he was talking about.
The lesson to learn is that even with Bitcoins' killer app (Silk Road), the bubble still had to deflate a lot.

PS. In the bearish scenario, 9th September 2011 is IMO similar to the 6th October 2014. The rebounds were even stronger back then.

Really interesting, some people say that Bitcoin is a bubble in 2011?

Relatively speaking, June 2011 marks the peak of Bitcoin's largest bubble, even if we consider the two bubbles of 2013 as one.

Nagle is still posting bearish posts even today on the forum.

It must really hurt being that wrong about something. Even if it goes to zero this very afternoon, what a squandered opportunity!

This particular quote keeps coming back, only the "early adopters" group keeps growing.. Second wave of early adopters... Third... Fourth... Still no investors, just adopters... Hmm wait that looks like something.. Can it be people's money? :)

We'll there's people like me... if BTC goes to ridiculously low prices, it would be stupid to not get in relatively big to get a good chunk just IN CASE it explodes again. There is a lot of people like me willing to get in if it goes ridiculously low, just in case.

Also you must understand that the "ridiculous amounts of cash" these guys are talking about is like $100k :) Ah the early days... When silly people didn't want in at overpriced $10 bitcoins... :)

Of course he is butthurt about it.

He could have, should have, would have made a ton of money if he bought bitcoin back then and held even until today at not an ATH.

Of course some people can't admit when they are wrong. So funny to see this! lol

This correction today was obviously needed... new high is possible if buyers can push this out tomorrow because short covering will be rampant causing a +++ day

I just got in. Still think its going lower, but wanted to lock in the profits and then go out.

That is the right thing to do and I agree. 100%