Bitcoin Forum

Hello, I am new when it comes to bitcoin.  I hear a lot of talk on hear about speculation that bitcoin will reach 2k-3k or even 10k by 2015 (or even sooner).

I know overstock and other companies accept bitcoin.  Can someone explain in detail why they believe bitcoin will double or even 10 fold within a few months to a year.  I hope it does (and have bought more coins by then)

Because that is what they are wishing.

because it rised 90fold in 2013 and bitcoin is more hyped then ever now

i highly doubt we gonna rise 90fold again but 10fold, sure

Or the bubble will burst back to $50.

Very interesting responses.  Miners are going through the roof and with it being harder and harder to get bitcoins, it looks positive for the market.

Watch this to start:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMilJzD3pL0&feature=share

If you are serious about understanding the answers to your questions you need to spend several weeks studying. But start with the video I just gave you.

Yep, and apart from the exponential up trend, an explanation would be that the market capital (10bil) is still very low compared to many markets that bitcoin represents. Bitcoin is gold, a most efficient medium of exchange, a means of financial privacy, and a unit of account (offering coloured coins for example) an escape route, a commodity etc..... These markets are each worth hundreds of billions, and trillions each. this is way a small bull scenario for bitcoin is likely to be 40 Billion at least (Winkelvii - $2000/BTC) and the capital has potential to grow to hundreds of billions ($10,000-100,000) and some would argue more. its totally possible and there is plenty of money (credit!) to go around. The network effects of money are possibly the strongest of all, so BTC is likely to lead the way, and this is why it is unlikely for the market cap to leak into the abyss of alt coins.

The reason why people believe that Bitcoin will increase by so much is primarily due to the fact that Bitcoin has limited supply, and they believe it will grow its market share - market share of currency value, that is.

Here's the theory:
Bitcoins have a fixed supply & are much easier to move than USD & have lower fees, so the theory goes that people should want them more than USD (I certainly do). Since the feds have been printing money at a breakneck speed for the longest time, some of that money eventually has to hit circulation. And when it does, the USD price will drop rapidly, getting rid of its advantage of being a supposedly stable asset. Thus, people holding dollars will have no incentive not to switch to BTC (since BTC is unstable, they aren't right now, but when the USD is similarly unstable, they will have no reason not to).

This process of switching causes more USD to go into circulation (as people spend the money from their savings on BTC, putting that saved USD into circulation) and in turn further destabilizes the USD. As such BTC will increase in market share against the US Dollar (where the market is the total value in currency assets worldwide).

And increased market share > increased demand > increased price because supply is held relatively constant.

As a currency, bitcoin price will tend to reach its fundamental value.  PQ = MV (Fisher's quantity theory of money) describes that fundamental value.  PQ is the size of the economy denominated in bitcoin.  M is the number of bitcoin floating in circulation, and V is the number of times each year a mean bitcoin is used in a transaction, the velocity of money.  If you do the math, for conservative estimates of PQ, you get numbers similar to those you mooted.  For ambitious or longer-term estimates of PQ, disaster scenarios, etc., you get much higher numbers.

Bitcoin tends to reward savers, and promises not to punish them too much.  Therefore, it may see (already does see) disproportionate reserve demand.  This tends to reduce M, above, making each unit worth more.  I suspect most estimates of value based on the size of the economy underestimate the reserve demand.

look at the long term chart

look at all the potential use cases for not just bitcoin as a money, but bitcoin the protocol

look at the hashing power of the network

look at the governments and their limpdick responses that have barely any effect

look at the current level of adoption and how much room it has to grow

look at VISA... they let you donate to the Ku Klux Klan but not Wikileaks

look at the FED and PBOC and BOJ and BOE and all them niggaz flailing about

bitcoin is a gigantic computer virus that will wipe out the entire legacy financial system, including central banks.

because to-da-moon

^  This guy knows his stuff.

Never heard it put that way!  Probably true, but not the best marketing strategy. ;) 

Bitcoin is definitely not a computer virus.

Maybe a virus ONLY when applied to banks. But still, no.

This image is outdated, but it was always one of my favorites. The pixel representing Bitcoin has certainly grown since then!

https://i.imgur.com/zUaG3kx.png

If Bitcoin proves to be the superior choice, or even a choice for one of these "markets", well...

Seems like Dogecoin has just surpassed bitcoin in volume. Crazy times huh.

I don't know if this is good or bad for bitcoin. I wish I bought those million doges for .1 bitcoins when it was first released.

bitcoin has competitive advantages over:
Gold
Credit cards, PayPal and other payment processors
Wire xfers (ACH, SWIFT, Western Union, Moneygram, etc)
checking
savings accounts
cash

Bitcoin is increasing it's market share in all these industries.

can also be used for:
micropayments
timestamps
title conveyance
escrow
voting
will/trust distributions

software is being developed and deployed for all these uses.

Valuations are derived from expected future market share in these industries as well.

Simple, growing market cap + limited supply = inevitable price rise

Litecoin constantly beats Bitcoin in volume (by a lot).

View volume in the amount of value exchanged (typically measured in dollars) and you will get a much different picture.

As assets go up in value, the volume measured in the amount of the asset exchanged typically goes down, but the volume measured in value exchanged goes up (or stays the same). In other words, 1000 bitcoins exchanged at a price of $1 each is the same value exchanged as 1 bitcoin at a price of $1000 each.

See google:

https://i.imgur.com/OU5CVze.png

As the value of the asset increases, the volume (measured in the amount of the asset exchanged) drops. We no longer need to trade thousands of Bitcoins to equal a significant amount of value exchanged.

TL;DR: There is nothing crazy about an asset with low value seeing huge volumes compared to an asset with high value, as long as you are measuring volume in the amount of the asset exchanged.

Because you can use it to pay for online porn and gamboling anonymously, duh.

I don't think it has anything to do with fiat 'value exchanged'. What it has to do with there being more large off-exchange transactions and there being more committed long term holders hoarding away large chunks of the asset for years so there is less of it available on the market for trade. In the case of bitcoin you also have the issue of coins getting lost.

I am talking about dollar value of market cap, not amounts of coins traded.

Not that coinmarketcap is fair or anything, but dogecoin is beating it out on 24h volume right now.

This kind of shows that cyrpto currencies are just a big gambling/speculation thing.

It also shows where future money will be going for the big profits, the boat has long passed for bitcoins.

All this talk about usefulness is really not that important. But I always knew that, I never cared about anything else really as USD does everything I want for a currency. However, you can't really speculate with it like bitcoins.

Wow great advice guys.  Appreciated

This is good to watch  :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

If you hadn't beat me to it, I would've posted the exact same link.

Great minds, etc.   :)

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/why-bitcoin-matters/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1&


http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-explained-five-year-old/


http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/21/bitcoin-platform/



awesome shit. have fun diving into it.

Because you can buy drugs with BTC.

That was the first Video i saw when I entered the BTC-World.
Fascinating and Sound
The only question is how high will the BTC-Price rise ?
The vertical will last only 1 year,utmost 2 years.
next step of BTC will be entering the vertical
I suppose mid 2014.or already spring 2014

gold rallied from $300 to $1900 over 11 years. pretty smooth too.

but we are in the Age of Internet.All the internet-companies rallied much,much quicker.and some failed quick.
So I guessed  the beginning of the vertical spring-mid 2014

Because if Bitcoin is to be used on a global basis by even a small fraction of people the valuation must scale up massively. You can't do a large international transaction if that eats half its entire market cap.

Right now it's still a toy and a curio. I think it's traveled most of the way it can on pure speculation and private money. Now it has to find a use in the wider world.

If it does then 10k won't be anywhere near enough. If it doesn't then it'll remain flying around between a few maniacs who'll eventually lose interest.

Re youtube video about a "vertical" phase. In my opinion we are already 10-11 mo into it (since Feb-march 2013), but it is far from over yet.
At 20K-50K per coin (~0.5-1trillion in marketcap=7-15% of gold) we will start transitioning into linear, but still growing phase with boring 10-20% a year.

if 5% of gold tries to buy bitcoin, bitcoin will jump well over 32K each.

supply and demand.

bitcoin is far better then gold

it may take some time for poeple to accept that fact, but it will happen, and way more than 5% of gold will be chasing bitcoin.

and there is a lot more going for the bitcoin then pure speculative value, its money FFS!

1,000,000$ bitcoins before 2020

I am slowly transferring part of my savings to bitcoin. I will never go as far as Andreas Antonopoulous (he has 150% in bitcoin according to LA meetup youtube video).
I was thinking up to 10% for now, but could regret smaller allocation later on, I guess.

$50,000 in 6 months in case of good news.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5ZxShJdk/