Bitcoin Forum

How should one alter expectations of the future number of BTC mined on any rig available today in the scenarios that 1) BTC price rises a lot, say 5x to $4000 in the next few months) BTC price falls a lot (say 75% back to $200), or 3) BTC price remains stable at the current price around $830. Is there a predictable impact of such price movements on the ability to mine BTC?

Thanks if you can help.

this question doesn't make sense.

I think, correct me if I'm wrong, what the OP wants to know is:

If btc price goes up, do miners attempt to mine more?

Answer is OF COURSE. Cause and effect not withstanding, there exists a relationship between btc price and mining. This can be easily seen on eBay where asic sellers are commaning premium over their asic miners and buyers are paying the premium for the hardware; why are the buyers paying premium? because they believe, due to high btc price, they can start mining and make money. These noob buyers, sadly, are not aware of "difficulty" factor in mining bitcoins.

I have seen posts in June/July 2013 where bitcointalkers were arguing whether the rise in difficulty CAUSES rise in bitcoin prices; lots of people were saying "No." The prescient ones were claiming that there was a 6-month lag between the two, that the rise in difficulty would result in rise in price six months later. They are proven to be right in this case.

Thanks for the suggested link between difficulty and price, which potentially suggests difficulty leads higher price.

What I am trying to figure is if one invests in a miner, is the reality that the higher the BTC price goes the less BTC I will eventually be able to mine? For example, higher mining margins bring increased competition and difficulty, so you just end up mining less than expected? (i.e. price leads to greater difficulty)

Whereas if the price were stable perhaps there's a better shot at mining more BTC?

Or does it not really matter what price does, difficulty will just increase at the same rate regardless.

Hope that makes more sense. Otherwise my apologies!

Does not really matter what price does in short terms - difficulty will increase - mining hardware is pre-sold in pre-orders for months to come. And ppl who bought will put that power online.

That can generate btc price increase again, that again a new frenzy of pre-ordering hardware, and new diff increase. And repeat all of this.

@Kato, Just to share the link of one mining calculator, the best i've found out there so far
http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php (http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php)

Thanks ujka

you are blabbering nonsense.
btc value rises to $1200+ because of Asia jumping in btc scene and demands for btc was sky high!!!
it has nothing to do with difficulty rise in the past six months before that!

There could be some link between difficulty and price.
With skyrocketing difficulty, people find bitcoin mining non-profitable.
So, instead of buying ASICs, they could be switching to buy bitcoin directly......

seems a lot more optimistic than other calculators I have used... I have an asic machine on the way... I hope this is right but somehow i doubt it...

No, WRONG. They were not proven to be correct because they aren't correct!

Explain to me how difficulty effects price. You can't, because it doesn't at all!

Difficulty alters the price through secondary mechanisms (like changing the number of people mining).  1/2 all BTC have been mined so the effect is decreasing.