Bitcoin Forum

Found this interesting chart today that indicates we should be around $300.00 per BTC right now. I think their may be a little of both, overvaluation and being slightly ahead of schedule. No doubt the November jump was a bubble and we're coming down off of it but I highly doubt we drop below $500.00 anytime soon.

https://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

That shows the danger of extrapolating the data in order to predict the future when you don't understand what is driving it.

Lame

3 years worth of charting data and the trend has held for the most part. Hard to argue with that.

The whole point of charting is that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy: if enough people follow them, then they become the "drive".

Up to a black swan event of course, which throws everything off the charts ;)

Or a white swan event...

Yes, if many people follow the same basic charting methods then the chart starts to dictate the prices!

There are many variables to consider.  As I see it, lately the main change has been an increasing number of large online merchants accepting Bitcoin.

Wouldn't there more likely be a S curve rather than a gradual rise, over the next few years?

The usual S-curve would only look S-shaped in a linear chart (like BTCUSD does). In a log-chart the S-curve looks mostly linear, as its steep-rise phase is determined by exponential growth.

As much as I agree that you can't take the past as a strict prediction of the future, I think it's well possible that the price ran ahead of adoption. That's what easily happens in a heated bull run like in November.

Anyway, there are many good news coming in, so the "real" (whatever this means) adoption might catch up with the price rather sooner than later. Hard to say. At the moment I don't see much upward strength though, and we're still pretty close to the correction from the all time high. Some more weeks/months before the next bull run begins and we see a new all time high would just be natural market behaviour.

it's a log scale, it's not linear.

The s-curve or logistic function is just tanh by another name (merely scaled and shifted).
Anyway, take the log of the logistic function and this is what you get:
http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y%3Dlog%281%2F%281%2Be%5E%28-x%29%29%29%2C-10%3C%3Dx%3C%3D10%2C-10%3C%3Dy%3C%3D1&x=11&y=7
Right now bitcoin is in the part of the curve on the left, where you see the sloping blue line.
Exponential growth won't last forever.  It can't, because the number of potential users and the amount of wealth in the world is finite.

It's currently ahead of schedule. That's why it's consolidating. It may break out ahead again or even lag behind for awhile, but for all intents and purposes it seems to be destined to follow that damn log chart for at least a couple more years.

Might be worth pointing out that a very slight difference in the slope of the line could mean the difference between hundreds and thousands of dollars per btc today.

Bitcoin is undervalued, in my opinion.

maybe, its coming to a funny point with some of my friends.

 "if it goes up in value again ill know its a ok time to buy and it wont come crashing back down"

while also saying:

 "its currently too high of a price, and theres no point buying a fraction of a coin, i want to say i have a full bitcoin because thats pretty cool"

so its like a catch-22 or something for people....

I remember reading months back on here that generally speaking people want to be poor and will avoid success at all costs. at the time I thought the person posting it was being a a bit of a jerk who was full of themselves. now im watching it happen.  oh sure ive gotten lots of friends on board, but i cant save them all an it sucks giving up on them and viewing them as lost to crypto. everyone of them has 20 for beer at game night, but that same 20$ cant goto bitcoin. HA! funny when I throw parties and tell them "this new years party, booze was funded with bitcoin" they like it but still cant see bitcoin is better than USD. my mind is blown every time...