Bitcoin Forum

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For the 24 hours preceding around 2pm UTC this afternoon, the Bid volume on Stamp was rather sparse, in comparison with the Ask volume in general and of course the massive 1500 BTC Ask wall at $820. This looked like a cert for a short seller. Short sell in $815 - $820 range, place stop losses at $821 with a massive 1500 worth of BTC trades required to trigger the stop loss. How could a shorter possibly lose? Well, I did fkn lose cos the lionshare of that 1500 BTC was eaten up with 2-3 massive bids that came in right out of the blue, right at that price range.

The counter-intuitive, if not downright impossible happened and the Bitcoin price punched right through a seemingly insurmountable level of selling pressure and landed some $15 dollars above before trending right back down to where it was. So could any experienced observers of the market (bulltards or perpetual bears stay at home please) tell me what to read into this recent Bid volume growth.

On the face of it, suddenly there is lots of capital chasing Bitcoins which would lead the man in the street to presume that the chase is on to acquire Bitcoins and that he should therefore go long and/or hold any Bitcoins he has in his possession....thing is, I have seen the counter intuitive strike too many times on Bitcoin already to swallow this too easily reached conclusion. I am also aware that whale-rats could stack each sides of the Ask/Bid wall with ease to give a false impression of what is on the cards, resulting in Joe Bloggs placing his bets in the wrong direction and emptying coin and/or usd right into the whale-rat koffers.

Someone wanted to sell some coins.  Someone else saw that there were coins for sale at an attractive price, so they bought those coins.

Don't trust the order book.

You aren't going to find the answer you're looking for...

The fact is that Bitcoin is supported by ideologists who believe that the dollars they trade for BTC are less valuable than the BTC they are buying. They would feel the same at any price and many of them have deep pockets... You aren't buying a company stock here.

I don't think this is a market that can be accurately predicted; especially if you're using conventional wisdom.

Day trading BTC is risky business...
 

well, nothing really would surprise me at this point. there is so much in the works.

China - say no more.

Gox - say no more

FBI selling coins. only the FBI knows when and how they will go. they may have some information. perhaps there is unexpected demand to purchase a lot of coins at auction to avoid market orders. for all we know they have already been sold.

There are so many exchanges ready to open and in the pipe works. like a nuclear bomb this thing is about to reach a critical mass. BT just needs a bit more liquidity and visa/paypal will be redundant. There is money in the shadows.

HSBC banning large withdraws. I think people are being driven into BC at this point as major banks in America and China are showing signs of default. Germanys gold is gone.

as wall street enters at this point in the stock bubble a new layer of support may be hidden.

could anybody make sense of all this?

You can't put a puzzle together when you're missing half the pieces while the other half constantly changes shape.

I know this already. I have already been kicked in the balls by Superwhale jumping in to save Bitcoin from the brink of freefall.

But I have no faith in these guys and their ideological motives. Perhaps some want Bitcoin to succeed out of ideological reasons, but these guys will have taken a backseat to the more mercenary and cut-throat amongst them quite some time ago, as it is the cut-throat players who will have moved themselves into the largest Bitcoin holdings through their misdeeds in the marketplace.

These are whale-rat cocksuckers who are interested primarily in increasing their own wealth whether that entails crashing Bitcoin, saving it from crashing, or ramping it.

I think from back at $200.00 (technically 50.00 but less so) until now and moving forward;  One could consider the perspective of the "Modern BTC miner".  This being wealthy people who have interest in the speculative aspects of BTC.   You know, the types who want 100,000 BTC or more.   I'm sure there are more who want / think they will get 100k than there are total coins to be minted.  This is just considering those at 100k;  think how many will / do want 10K, 1K.....

    These Modern BTC miners are mining a different blockchain, so to speak.  Their perspective must be different, since money can't build you a computer to mine 100k BTC.

Coin parameters:

Blockchain = BTC Holders
Total Max coins = 210 (21M BTC / 100K per person)
Difficulty = Market sentiment (overall bullish or bearish market at a given time)  (bullish = higher difficulty / bearish = lower difficulty)
Block Reward = 1/Market price (eg. 200.00 buy = .005 reward / 800.00 buy = .00125 reward etc)
Reward Halving = every 2x market price
Algorithm = Proof of Rumor / Psychological
 

It seems if you look at the "modern miners" from this perspective, the recent activity should make more sense.  This is very similar to mining the BTC directly with computers as most are used to.  The only difference here is the blockchain is now you.  You can modify max coins produced based on how many you "feel" wealthy people will want; eg- 10K = 2,100 max coins. 

As you can see from above, difficulty can be hard to control / regulate (just like with normal mining) and times of lower difficulty are good to mine (buy).  However, block reward is a key point;  from this perspective.  As both a reward reduction and halving can occur rapidly;  whereas this is not the case with traditional mining being set. 


  Essentially, someone noticed the lower difficulty (bear wall) and decided to turn on their ASIC (big wallet)....Seems they found a few blocks.  ;D

 

As much as I have tried, I am afraid I can't make any sense of what you are saying.

I apologize as, I did not intend to confuse.  I like to look at things, sometimes, from different perspectives;  as that affects reality.  Also, I'm a bit odd :P. 

The intent was to be somewhat humorous by relating a wealthy buyers perspective;  if they were to consider it "mining".  Sort of an analogy.

Say I wanted the 100k BTC.  I can't spend any amount of money to build a rig to mine that many.  So, I would have to "mine" my 100k from current holders (blockchain reference).  If I was to assume that more than 210 people in the world will also want 100k coins;  then that equals the max coins ever to be minted.  Only 209 others could get the same 100k I want (max coins) and I would have to be aware of this.  Since I can only get coins from current holders;  I can only get them easily when they want to sell.  When they think price is going up;  it  becomes harder to get (difficulty from above).  I would have to consider how much I get (block reward) vs my cost per unit of fiat ( this is where reward = 1 / price).  The algorithm was primarily humor on how BTC price is driven.  Creating a "coin parameter" layout was to be humorous, since it's how stats are generally shown for coins;  but is being applied to holders and buyers.  It's all a comparison really, but it actually is an interesting perspective to consider for a bit.

So, then applying that perspective of mining coins from people;  I made the last statement directly about difficulty and dropping an asic.  Because adding hash in BTC means miners think price is amenable or low.  Using the perspective of mining shown;  the buyer thought the market sentiment (low diff. bearish wall) was a good opportunity to buy.  E.g. low difficulty so they put on a miner on and got coins.

Sorry, again to cause confusion;  I do like to always look from different points of view I guess.  I know explaining (hopefully) kills any humor, but I'd rather not have you confused.

 

this was really funny/good. made much better by mat commenting he couldnt get it.

@mat , i took this as him talking about a way of thinking/reasoning comparing generating bitcoins near the beginning of bitcoin with people having to buy hardware or computers to mine bitcoin and contrasting that to how people with large pockets view the current btc market and the way they can protect their share of coins in the way early adopters did.


edit: dammit he came in an explained himself before i could get that post out =)

my gold is gone? source pls...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/u-s-dollar-collapse-where-is-germanys-gold/5321894

If it was the case that the wannabe Bitcoin whale is simply 'mining' current holders of Bitcoin when the difficulty decreases then his market timing is miserable. There was far more coins than that going for much less on the correction down to $767 on Stamp. If someone wanted to own 100K Bitcoin, I would presume that he had rock solid belief or knowledge in Bitcoins long term viability, and therefore his trading bot would be coded not to miss a 'decreased difficulty' opportunity such as the Huobi instigated slide on Friday morning.

I see it more as a trend altering purchase from some whale who didn't want to see Bitcoin slip back down under $800 for whatever reason.

why do you feel a person can have huge ammounts of fiat ready on all exchanges to take advantage of the best price on any of them at any given time?  is it not possible someone wired to money to whatever exchange and simply bought the total when the price was at what they felt was reasonable given there expectations?

I can have small amounts of Bitcoins and USD on all the exchanges I care to operate on.

If I was heavily loaded with BTC and USD, I could have humongous amounts of both on all the exchanges I care to operate on.

Whilst most on here don't see it this way. To an impartial observer, the Bitcoin chart looks a horrible bet right now. It is a clear bear chart. If the present trend is anything to go by, we will not see $850 Bitcoin again for some time. Saving for someone having insider knowledge that the rest of us are not privvy to, right now is a terrible time to be making multi-million dollar investments. It was either the work of a rich idiot or idiot(s), or the work of some whale(s) already up to their eyeballs in Bitcoin who are stage managing the market for some purpose.

All signs point to a slide back beneath the $800 dollar mark only for a record breaking trade on the 5 minute candle to swoop in and totally rearrange the environment.

I have seen myself tip the barrel in times of very low volume with my own trades, never more than 30 BTC these days. I have also observed how other exchanges respond to the shift in price I cause on Bitstamp. It is fun to do and in low volume conditions, even I can shift momentum in my favour for albeit, a short period of time. Now someone with massive reserves of BTC and USD, has the power to bitch slap this market any which he pleases. Perhaps the wealth he needs to appropriate to achieve this even inconsequential to him?

 

I would challenge the view of a 'clear' bear chart. The last bear run died at critical support on all exchanges. I think the best a bear could say is that it's very flat.
besides, any kind of technical analysis will be intercepted soon by brewing fundamentals. It is 50/50.
up, thats my 2 cents.

I am sorry, but every standard investment text book in the world would have the right angle formation that has formed on the Bitcoin chart since 6th Jan, as a bearish indicator.

Look it up

google it.

See for yourself from countless historical examples of right angle triangle formations that when the 'horizontal' line is formed as a price support line, a break down in price is to be expected, especially so when the right angled formation is formed from a rally from previous greater highs.

Now, I have already learned a lesson about applying text book trading rules to a market that is largely cornered by a relative few...but that is on the short term scale. On the large term scale, is Bitcoin really going to be one of those examples that breaks the classic mould of textbook examples?

Edit: Here are a couple of examples (no they are not cherry picked, but representative of the norm)

http://stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/chart_analysis/chart_patterns/desctri-conti-dd.png

http://stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/chart_analysis/chart_patterns/ascending_triangle_continuation/asctri-conti-prtl.png

The fact of the matter is that support was and is not broken.
I have read a lot of technical analysis books (in vein) and none of them draw firm conclusions at any time, thats very bad practise. The situation is ambiguous at best. we are only looking for an edge. the market does what it wants when it wants. fact. It will eat a 1500BTC wall when it wants, because thats just how a zero sum game works.
you must have heard the saying, the trend is your friend. for all my experience it's the only thing Ive come to believe about trading.
my name is chessut because I am a very good chess player. I know a good technical analysis is worthless without strategy and foresight. a bearish analysis of this chart has no value to a trader.

Then I am sure you are familiar with the two versions of right angled triangle and what happens to the price in the majority of cases when the break out occurs.

Although no 'firm' conclusions can be drawn, history teaches us that the strongest probability is that Bitcoin has formed a descending right angled triangle (bearish).

Maybe the textbooks are wrong. Maybe you are interpreting them wrong. Maybe Bitcoin is the exception that proves the rule. Maybe you are right. The price is stabilizing and not you interpret that as a bad sign while earlier you saw instability as a bad sign. Maybe you are looking too hard for bad signs because you missed the boat. I just don't think your observations/analysis carries much weight. Who the fuck are you that we should be listening to you? I heard stuff just like this when a bitcoin cost $10.

What happens next?

https://i.imgur.com/FC21mvx.png

I might have bought that, but the triangle has falsely broken up, falsely broken down, and now its heading up. I dont understand what it is doing so I will wait for a real opportunity. you dont have to trade any old setup.

MOON!

Something may be up with Bitstamp.

Via reddit....ATM halts buy option because of bitstamp problems.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1w83db/weve_shut_down_the_buy_option_at_the_bitcoin_atm/

so more buyers than sellers at the ATM. obviously bullish.

All of the buying this morning was following mtgox.

"All"?? horse shit. a big chunk was short-sellers hitting their stop-loss points.

But it originated at mtgox. Without gox it wouldn't have happened.

Maybe, but if people were just cutting their losses so they could sell on another exchange, the price would have gone DOWN on those exchanges and it didn't.

I am pretty sure most people are not just going to cut their loses by buying at over 1k and immediately sell on other exchanges. They can HOLD an wait for the price to go up.

Wrong. People can panic buy out of Gox without selling on other exchanges right away. They just hold the btc. They would rather not realize a loss, and instead wait for the next price rally or until mtgox fixes its problems.

Also, since this morning, the gap between mtgox and other exchanges has increased from $160 to $200!

ok, so if they are hodling then they believe the price will go up eventually. If enough people believe this, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The point is a bullish spin could be put on this story just as easily as your bearish spin.

So true! it's all perspective.

Good try but no cigar.

That move played out over just a few days, and because it occurred on a strong up move, could be considered a bullish wedge.

Bitcoin has been in this desceding triangle for the past 3 weeks, after a slow recovery from a brutal correction.

The majority of examples from financial history would suggest a break to the downside after this.

Because Bitcoin is controlled by a relative few cocksucking whale-rats, Bitcoin may be different. We will see. I will however be shorting Bitcoin again just as soon as it falls short of recent 836 high and starts to trend down again.

Well... I'm no whale-rat, but if I was, I would paint the charts to look like the exchange rate is about to do what a majority of examples from financial history would suggest, and then do the opposite.

Then again, maybe people would expect me to do that... in which case I would... stick with history!

Fuck day trading.