Bitcoin Forum

So, we currently are at $800. We need 9200 more dollars to reach $10,000 pe coin.

Given the current stagnation, last year's boom and overall bitcoin's performance, how much longer do you think it will take to reach 10,000? I am skeptical it will ever go to that amount. I would be very happy if we get again to 1000 and stay there for quarter.

There are some cases of people that preach 100k USD for one BTC, and even 300k. I think it's just delusional. Just think of this: Too many coins are in the hands of just a few people. A price of let's say, even 10,000 will make the 1k BTC holder worth 100 million USD.

But, a current BTC holder of 10 BTC will have what? 1 MIL USD? That's nothing. Good money of course, but much more are being made with hardworking companies. I know a small cheap jewelry store chain, (average price 20 USD, 5 stores) that's worth about that.

So, we can conclude that even if the price will be 10,000 all those 1 BTC holders will have only some money for a nice trip, 10 BTC holders can pay their debt, and those 100 (which are even rarer) can buy a home, a car, and do some diversification.

Mathematically, a price of 300,000 would pay off quite good even for the 1 BTC holder, but the market cap would be immense, almost unreachable. And those current rich guys will be even richer.

I don't see this situation any different than what we have currently with fiat money. A small number of families control and own everything. Think of it just as redistribution of wealth, the pyramid still remains.

You are assuming all those "hodlers" will never cash out any BTC somewhere along the way like many did in the past.

Although I am skeptical about the price reaching $10-100k in the near future (<12 months), in late 2012 I would never have believed that the price would attain even $100 within the next few months.

I wouldn't concentrate on the market cap too much, there are companies with a market cap 10-20-50x that of BTC, and BTC is not just "a company" but a concept to be used by many.

Also yeah, if you live in an expensive area or are used to high standards, you may need to spend 100 BTC @ $10k to buy a house and a car but you could easily spend several times less than that.

Seems like I have read this before.  Oh I know, just replace 10k with $1 and 1000 with $0.10.

The smell of cult is strong in this one.

http://figures.boundless.com/15643/full/fry6.jpeg

''Only true believers shall profit, hodl!!''

Some of you hodlers make bitcoin look like a ponzi scheme. Tone it down.

And replace 1M with 1000. And so on?

Your post suggests you are considering Bitcoin against the assumed stable and constant background of the USD economy.  Most scenarios people suggest in which a bitcoin achieves a price north of 100`000 USD drop this assumption.

Some argue that a hyper-inflationary event will bring the purchasing power of 100`000 USD down to a level where a bitcoin having that value is more believable.

Some are more bold and suggest that Bitcoin could largely replace the USD in a number of areas, reducing the size of the USD economy significantly (here, a bitcoin could attain the same purchasing power of 100`000 USD today but this would not be wealth created by a more efficient payment system as much as wealth transferred from holders of USD).

and don't forget too put on your math/calculus that many coins a lost forever every day ...

make the cult even more strong ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6z9o2-b-wk

That's only a question of Bitcoin going mainstream. And Bitcoin going mainstream is a question of easier ways to acquire it, use it and somewhat understand it for everyone. And don't say it's easy to understand.. People are not that smart in general

When you learn how the world works, you'll figure out that this is the only thing that has been constant throughout the history of mankind.

PS Oh, and your math is off by a zero here and there, but I'm lazy to point it out, you don't have any sensible argument anyway.

do people understand how fiat currency works? do people understand how the internet works? do people understand how iphones work? no. they just use it.

and it is becoming easier to acquire coins every single day.

just think about bitcoin atms and wait until they become popular: *cough* february, bitcoin atms in uk and czech republic, already existing in finland, canada,coming soon in lugano and zurigo *cough*  ;D

I'll just leave this here.

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

This is just psychological. Think of it this way. 1 BTC was arbitrarily set to equal 100,000,000 satoshis which currently is about US$ 800. What if tomorrow, a change is done to the core and the decimal point shifts 3 places so that the "new bitcoin" is 0.001 of the "old bitcoin" or US$ 0.800? So the new bitcoin would just need to reach US$ 300 per coin, instead of US$ 300,000 per coin of the old Bitcoin. Would that 1BTC = US$ 300 sound delusional to you now?

Holders of old BTC will still have a huge amount of fiat in that old BTC.

If decimals get shifted it loses its ''oh there's only 21 million'' buzz.

That's hardly a buzz, and even if it was, "oh there's only 21 billion" would also be a buzz

bitcooin itself is already valued at $100k

its just the network and infastructure that isnt there to support it

also, probably 99% of people who heard about bitcoin doesnt realize this fact

millions sounds rare and exclusive hence why it incentives people to hoard so much.. billions or trillions on the other hand start to sound more Zimbabwean.

lol dogecoin

Yeah, Doge is the Zimbabwean dollar of cryptos.

But apparently this has positive affects on trade volumes.

SO you agree that it's all psychological.

because electricity is important ... I bought a billion tesla bank note to print in it my Bitcoin Armory offline wallet bak ;)

http://houseofthemoon.com/zyugoslavia/P127poor.jpg

Yeah! Don't get excited about a technology you think might have the potential to change the world. Go sit quietly in a corner by yourself and reflect on this until you can learn to be a zombie like everyone else.

Edit: Especially on a forum dedicated to discussion of said technology!

 

I might be thick, but I don't understand this bet.

Surely the smart thing would be to just vote No and then you still get 1.5x your investment back.  If it does reach 10k then you are happy anyway cos the coins you are hodling are now worth a fortune.  Seems like a win/win scenario or I missing something?

I like your math. :)

As the price has doubled more than 16 times over its lifespan, it could easily double a few times more. So, I think the only way to judge the maximum price is by how wealthy the elites such as the Winkelvii will be allowed to get, before capital flows to alt coins such as Litecoin.
the richest men in the world are multi billionaires, 27Billion is a cool sum. There are 1500billionaires in the world. There are hundreds of thousands of millionaires.

so lets say the Winkevii's stash is worth 30Bln some day. 100,000BC= $30,000,000,000,  1BC=$30,000.

but lets not forget that there are 1500 billionaires and a hundred thousand millionaires in the world to make this puppy fly.....

So lets say, some of those billionaires must be replaced because of the fundamental shift in wealth thats going on here.

Lets say then that at least 1 trillion market cap is required before the Billionaires are just balanced out between BTC/USD.

=> $100,000 BTC

Yeah, 1000 bitcoins X 10,000 per bitcoin isn't 100 million, but 10 million.

:-)

It isnt that the tech. isnt valuable it is. It is that bitcoin is not valuable. The protocol is valuable but that is not proprietary. See banks and creditors dont need bitcoin they will just take the BTC off the front and put PP usd or visa usd they will adopt the tech and ditch the bitcoin itself. 

OPs numbers are wrong. The latest projection by the rocket fueled turbobulls is $80,000,000. Confirmed.

Come talk to me in April, then come talk to me in November. You might have a different outlook.

wat?

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/   this is just like InTrade... This business model didnt work out for Intrade the CFTC shut them down.

They are just saying that if it had widespread adoption the price per BTC would be 100k each... Pipe dream :P

Technical Analysis cultists drinking the TA Koolade?

So, is that an elliot wave?

Unfortunately I´m an late BTC adaptor (april 2013) and a member here since 2-3 months. I wonder, were this threads also like this 1-2 years ago? I mean, were people making threads with "will Bitcoin ever reach $10 or $100"?? I ask this because maybe we are awaiting too much grow from BTC at this point? I myself also cant imagine that 1BTC will be even worth $10.000.

Oh ya I have been bearish since 22 usd. and remain bearish BTC's valuation is totally unjustified its a tulip bubble.

You call 1,000,000 USD nothing?
I´ve invested almost 3,000USD so far and i´m halfway to my 10BTC so 1,000,000 USD in the future sounds dreamy awesome if you ask me  ;D

yes in early 2012 talking seriously about 100 dollar coins was laughed at like rpietelia 300k was in mid 2013.  lots of miners were saying "btc will never get above the 10.   im selling everything I mine to you forum suckers lol!"

Please tell us when you turn bullish!

The price has doubled more than 16 times, it can quite easily double a few more times.

There will be so much money flowing from the stock market soon. dumb money and smart money. it will drive BTC to the moon.

I was never involved for capital gain but social change when I realized that wasnt possible I abandoned it. Doubling isnt gonna happen. If you are getting in now you are a late comer.

I got in at 12 usd per BTC and have bought and sold over 500 BTC.

INCREDULITY CHECKPOINTS I HAVE KNOWN
by sgbett aged 37 and a half.

#1 When it broker back through the ATH of $30
#2 When it just carried on.
#3 When it broke $100. omg.
#4 When it just carried on.
#5 When it broke $200. Holy shit.

crash. and pause for breath. well that that was fun whilst it lasted. never gonna see that kind of action again...

#6 When after just a few months, it retested ATH and smashed through it
#7 $300,$400,$500. rofl this is rediculous (sic)
#8 $1000. srsly wtf.

At all times $price*2 was considered wild. Price*10 was laughed out of town.

This be the craziest BiTCh I ever did see.

my neighbour hasnt even heard of bitcoin.
none of my friends own any bitcoin.
people are still trying to get their heads around a number of fallacies regarding scarcity, intrinsic value and security.
we are early to the party!
wall street hasnt opened doors yet.

why cant it double again?
I bet you said that 16 doubles ago.

Relax. Less than 2 million users in a world of 7.25 billion means we are way, way, way early. $10 billion market cap in a $60 trillion global economy means we have a long, long, long way to go.

Jesus H, with most excellent math skillz like that, who needs $$?


By the way, one thousand coins @ 10 grand is $10 Million, NOT $100 Million.

/facepalm

It's worse than that, you guys aren't calculating for hyperinflation, you have to bear in mind that all Bitcoin is really doing like Gold/Silver is honestly reflecting just how many dollars are being pumped into the system if you hold 10 BTCs and in theory the value rises to $10,000 then it will be like Zimbabwe where you exchange 1 Bitcoin for $10,000 dollars and then it turns out to cost $1,000,000 to buy what normally would be a cheap house. Have you seen the Japanese Yen? That's the kind of hyperinflation that I'm thinking of, the only good thing about this is it tells us what's going on in the markets for real and also it lets us still have a functioning economy no matter how badly governments fuck up their paper currencies this time round.

The real question is what will people think Bitcoin is worth after the initial frenzy and collapse happens, having a circle jerks about the BTC/USD price can be fun but in the long term it's pretty meaningless.

yeah, what will it mean if governments stop printing money?
USD will deflate.
thats not good for bitcoin.
possibly the rush out of the stock market will cause demand for bitcoins.
but will the demand for bitcoins exceed the demand for USD?

well ur assuming that for BTC to reach $10,000, USD will have to hyper inflate or by the time it reaches $10,000/btc USD would have hyper inflated. But most investors are betting on Bitcoin reaching $10,000 by increased market cap without a massively hyperinflated/devalued USD. Due to Bitcoin scarcity, if the market cap significantly increases in size ($100 Billion+) then the price will go up in value along with it.

Less than one million wallets (so less than one million users), and people think the price can't double again, let alone $10,000. Please... It's so far from being even close to widely adopted that really no one has any clue really what the price will do in the future. Only thing for certain is there is plenty of room for price growth, if bitcoin continues to be adopted and used as digital money.

Don't forget the oldie, but goodie: dollar parity!!!!  "Omg, dollar parity is a bubble.  It'll be back less than a cent any second now. It is just a ponzu scheme for nerds."  ;D

It can't reach 10,000. 800 is too high, 10,000 would be insane.

1k x 10,000 = 10 million
10 x 10,000 = 100k

Yes, fail. I wrote the post for 10k holders but then modified it. Anyway, you got my point.

Never is a very long time... If just 1% of global wealth goes into bitcoin, bitcoin's market cap will rise to some astronomical number.  Bitcoin will become its own asset class. It will be a deflationary asset class. In an inflationary world, that makes an extremely valuable asset to hold on to.

+1

You guys give the average american-zombie wayy too much credit...

thank you for putting things in perspective.

like all these valuations..  even if BTC equals $100,000 someday, perhaps a gallon of gas might be $300 so you don't really gain anything with BTC but preserve your wealth..  like with gold for the most part.

so watch what you wish for  :-X

Or BTC could be $1 million and we don't use gas at all. What is the point of pointless speculation?

obviously if you don't see the point you think it is pointless..  what a world you must live in..  nothing exists unless you already understand it!!!

perhaps if you asked nicely I would of bother learning ya but these days people just slam someone and expect someone to rush to prove their point..  nah, people used to ask with some civility when there was a concept that they didn't seem to fully grasp

stay in the dark

Firstly, let me apologise for slamming you. I could've worded it differently. I work in financial services and deflation is much more a reality at this point unless yellen prints more after ben's farewell, in which case we might see very high inflation in the US. However, the political cost to the fed will be significant after QE3. So I think it is more likely deflation will hit and a recession ensue. Also, I believe that emerging technology will move us away from gas at $300 per gallon.

ok then you do know the area I am talking about. BTC's run up consists of a few variables and I was just pointing out the part where dollar destruction (which many people cling to as the reason to invest in btc) will also raise the price of anything else with value so there isn't a wealth gain with that jump.

Other areas can rise and crash the BTC price in relation to other things but those are different cases

The interesting thing with the Fed you mention is true, but they figured out that with the drop in credit creation, all that money printing pretty much just balanced the equation which is why we never really saw inflation go crazy (and yes inflation deals with more factors like velocity that is slowed from stagnation in wages)

So, if Yellen keeps tapering, we will probably see an uptick in more lending to fend off deflation..  but wages will probably need to rise as well since many folks aren't going to take real loans when tapped out. (the crazy college loans & car loans continue though)

one area is the shift to investor home ownership and tenant renters.. that will probably keep velocity really slow and prices stagnate  (American Homes 4 Rent, etc)

If yellen tapers deflation will ensue, not more lending. Money printing did not balance out the equation per se. It pushed down long term interest rates which encouraged speculative credit flows giving the illusion of wealth via asset price appreciation. Wages cannot rise in taper scenario as there is already inadequate consumption and corporations will retrench leading again to excessive labour capacity. Car and college loans cannot continue indefinitely as college loan defaults are near parabolic and car loan interest are ticking up plus the fact that car volumes are at pre GFC highs. Moreover, credit creation is not happening in the US as GDP growth of around 2% shows. Credit creation due to cheap dollars was occurring in emerging markets, especially China which created new credit equivalent to 36% of China's GDP in 2013.  Other emerging markets also did so but at lower but still dangerous levels. Fed taper ends this as USD starts to appreciate and the global reserve currency becomes more expensive. The global economy is fubar as emerging markets crumble.

Yes I know credit creation isn't here yet, I said it will have to happen if Yellen continues...  there is plenty of sideline money that will fuel lending if interest rates tick up a little and it won't be consumer at first.. it will continue to be for those investors buying up foreclosures and renting them.. how that really fixes anything is a baby step from where we were

also I am seeing a big push for cities promoting tax-free incentives for people that create startup companies (new york is pushing hard their plan of 10 year tax free right now)  how that all works is to be watched.   The puppet master hands are moving for the next act.

yes emerging markets are going to have to fend for themselves for the short term

also, the asset prices got bloated by lots of companies fueling that easy money in buybacks to insiders selling large stakes..watch out below 

Yellen will almost certainly print. She was vetted to be a reliable printer. If she wasn't, she wouldn't have been confirmed. Yes, without QEternity, deflation is inevitable, but it won't happen because when your only tool is a printing press, every problem looks like a liquidity problem. We are not dealing with Paul Volker here. When the government starts screaming for more counterfeit fiat, they will get it and we will be screwed, unless we are holding bitcoin, that is. 

The Government is insolvent. The Banks are insolvent. The citizens are insolvent. The only two possible outcomes are deflationary systemic collapse soon or hyperinflationary systemic collapse later. Politicians and Fed Chairmen rarely see or care beyond the next election cycle, so they will kick the can. It's as close to a certainty as you can get.

It won't IMHO. I have been a naysayer for a long time though. When I got out I told my friends and family that it would blow into a huge bubble and then crash waaayyy down. Not to nothing but to something believable, like beanie babies and tulip bulbs. My brother in law basically says that it hasn't been blown as big as it is gonna get and that financial institutions are going to get in and give it a good pump, its possible but I dont see it happening.   

You're like the guy in the street proclaiming the end of the world. You're no longer just wrong. You're becoming a joke. Bitcoin price periodically goes through manias, but the four year log trend is remarkably clear. This is a technology with utility and it's being adopted at an exponential growth rate. This will continue (and the price will reflect that) until a superior technology is developed and deployed or until adoption approaches saturation level.

The media are still pushing for ponzi scheme.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/bitcoin-ponzi-scheme-worry-sparks-estonia-central-bank-caution.html
we are far from the top and it aint gonna come back.

Ok. Lets say Yellen prints but China's economy corrects, then what? Without credit creation we are still facing deflation, no?

LOL. Central bankers warning of ponzi schemes. Reminds me of the pickpocket in the movie Casablanca warning of "vultures, vultures everywhere!"

Money printing IS credit creation. When the Fed expands its balance sheet, dollars are loaned into existence. Further credit creation occurs when private banks re-lend, and the Fed has tools to encourage that, one being to stop paying interest for bank deposits held at the Fed. Private banks aren't going to sit on that money. They are going to lend it out. Yellen could also INCREASE QE rather than continue or taper. I think this is likely because most of the inflationary effects will be offset by lower import prices as the dollar strengthens relative to other national currencies. The government can and likely will encourage more consumer debt also, in the form of student loans, tax breaks like mortgage deductions, etc. And of course the government itself will likely increase it's borrowing. This isn't mere speculation. There are numerous historical precedents.

Yellen will be forced to print because every other central bank has an even greater incentive than she does to print. They will then she will. If she doesn't go along, exports will plunge, imports will explode and current accounts deficits will bring the whole damn thing to a grinding halt. China most likely will correct. They may try to print their way out of it, in which case the above scenario plays out. If they are uncharacteristically smart, they'll have massive deflation, bank runs, bankruptcies en masse and then get into a war to distract everybody and prevent the civil unrest from reaching critical mass. Wars are never deflationary.

no, it isn't directly..  credit creation creates more debt money that gets cancelled out when debt paid, money printing is an absolute increase

 

the money that is printed is for lending......
lending = debt
debt=credit

I don't believe money printing is debt creation because we have seen a commensurate rise in bank reserves.

we have also seen a rise in debt.... huge debt.

the banks own the credit.....
people own the debt....

Yes, government debt is up. Corporate debt is up. Housing debt is down. Student debt is up. Car debt is up. Overall, slightly up but not for much longer. The US has not hit escape velocity nor will it.

you need to review the fed balance sheet to see how this works.. the fed can take junk assets and hand out money with ZIRP but then they don't have control of that money..  you won't see that balance sheet money really come into lending until interest rates rise so it is worth it for lending to occur.. (besides the ultra safe loans)

but this is one of those long 80 year cycles instead of the normal recession cycles..  this usually leads to depressions and wars as many have said since there is no real way out except these are strange times with the massive amount of handouts and globalization.

bankruptcy doesn't seem to exist anymore except for targeted things (cities and companies use it to flush out unions/pensions) but fundamentals aren't really driving when it happens or it would be widespread already

Sure it will hit $10K+ one day. Even if it hits that mark in 2-3 years that is one steller ROI.  Probably the best you can get.

By the time all 21m coins are mined there will be 10 billion plus people crawling around this planet. Most will have smartphones and will be connected.  Ecommerce will be the dominate form of shopping.  With arial logistics we'll get our stuff faster too.  Not to mention all the unforeseen economic and political turmoil the world will go through. There is tremendous room for growth but expect it gradually.

The boost you got so excited about in November was because of China. He second biggest economy working it's way to that number one spot. A country with a smartphone userbase twice the entire US population. With growth that outpaces anyone. And a culture generally geekier than the US.

Also I'm not sure what the hell your talk about but 100BTC can buy you a descent small house somewhere.  Anyway like maletovon said, your not accounting for all those people that will sell their precious coin for some of their shitty fiat when it hits $2k. Oh and then they'll try to do more of that. Like a gambling addict.

Unless we are just arguing semantics, you have made a conceptual error. We're not talking literal money printing which is done by the dept. of Treasury and accounts for a small fraction of the money supply. We're discussing the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet which can only occur when the fed conjures money out of thin air to lend it to someone, usually the government, but increasingly other markets like mortgage-backed securities. This money doesn't exist before it's lent. It's just an entry onto the Fed's ledger.

of course all loans must be repaid WITH INTEREST, and since all new money is created by debt, there isn't enough money in the world to repay all the debts plus interest. More money is created to pay the interest payments. But that's a little off topic.

More money is created when new Fed money is deposited in private banks and re-lent. This is called the money multiplier and it's usually estimated to be around 10X as much as the original Fed expansion, but it can vary greatly depending on how much is kept at the deposit bank as a reserve. Since 2008, banks have held an uncharacteristically high amount in reserve, partly because the fed pays them interest for reserved they keep on overnight deposit at the Fed itself. This is why we haven't (yet) seen as much inflation as many have predicted.

The "absolute increase" in money you mention is canceled out when the fed sells the bonds or whatever it put on it's balance sheet when the money was created. So it's no more absolute than any other kind of credit. They are effectively the same thing.

Multiplier is 2.2 to 1.7 over one year.

Buying debt is the same as lending. Adding a negative number is the same as subtracting a positive number. The Fed increases the money supply by buying debt. Private banks further increase the money supply by making loans. Making loans is money creation. Buying debt is money creation, money "printing". Credit expansion happens when more loans are made. Credit expansion IS money printing. It doesn't matter who's borrowing. If they deposit the borrowed funds in a bank, the bank lends it out. If they spend it, the people who sell whatever was bought put it in a bank and it gets lent out again. Banks are holding historically high (but not high enough IMHO) reserves. There are various ways the Fed and the Government can encourage/force banks to lower those reserves. They are very very likely to do that (again) if the economy slows down.

Politicians and bureaucrats do not keep their jobs by making wise but unpopular policy. They are not experts on economics. They are experts at getting and keeping their jobs. They will print because their constituents will demand they print.  as they have time after time. The addict needs just one more fix, and this time could you make it a strong one?

the point you are missing is that it isn't as hand-in-hand as you say it is..  capital goes where it is best used.  And if someone buys your bad debt you don't HAVE to make loans after the 'mulligan'..  that was the plan but it didn't really happen since interest rates stayed near zero. Risk appetite took over instead of old custodian actions of years by gone...  And even if some did go towards loans, many didn't stay in the USA.  A lot of the FED actions are more global affecting than domestic with all these super corporations and banks

In a functioning credit market, capital goes where it is best used, but decades of artificially low interest rates and years of ZIRP have distorted the market to the point where it is basically unfixable without triggering the Mother Of All Corrections. So they won't fix it. They'll keep printing. Yellen basically admitted as much in confirmation hearings. Anyone could have predicted what happened when the banks were bailed out. It's called "moral hazard". Save someone from the consequence of their foolish actions and they are MORE (not less) likely to repeat them. There are still house-flipping shows on cable TV. Nobody learned anything so we're all gonna repeat it, bigger and better than ever. They will kick the can. There is no other politically viable option.

I am now asking myself, is it even politically viable for the Fed to continue with QE?  I'm starting to question that.

I am also asking, if QE continues, will emerging markets and China continues with credit creation?  I'm also starting to question that.  See India's central bank response to Fed's QE taper and China's forecasted slowdown in 2014. 

More QE could simply end with stagflation. 

I agree that's likely, but stagflation is better from the policy-maker's perspective than the alternative. That's the dilemma they are in.

Stagflation = high unemployment, low GDP growth, high inflation. 

This will end up with a Volcker type Fed = high interest rates.

Yellen could be a one term Chairperson.

Yellen is no Tall Paul. If interest rates got even close to Volker's 18%, almost nobody could service their debt at that level, certainly not USG. The housing market would crash again and this time take out the entire banking system.
And that's the GOOD scenario.   Not gonna happen. I'm betting my life savings on it.

+1 Thanks for putting this in perspective.

Interesting, but did we ever get an answer as to whether some of these large holder addresses belong to exchanges or similar bodies? That would significantly skew results.

Can you explain the bet? Sounds interesting.

To be honest I don't want to be super rich, I don't hodl enough coins for that. But some money to buy a decent apartment where I live will really help me and my family allot.
I will leave the jets for big whales  ;)

Not complicated. My portfolio is over 90% bitcoin. If The Fed stops printing, the fractional reserve money multiplier will turn negative due to credit contraction and we'll get fiat deflation, bankruptcies, failed banks, etc.  This is what needs to happen to fix the messed up capital structure of the economy, but the central planners won't let it happen.

I agree with billyjoeallen. But I remain concerned about the capacity of central planners to keep printing, as political forces are kicking back from enrichment of the 1%. I see that in the US, Europe and China. I don't doubt yellen is an instinctive printer, I just don't know how much political space she has to follow ben's path.

What billyjoeallen said.  Pretty much same believes here.

After looking at our current monetary system since I started to get really into bitcoin 1.5 years ago, I have come to the same conclusions.  We should have had more larger, severe market corrections to fix many of the markets over the last few decades. But these were not allowed. There is no escape I see now but a collapse.  I hate how pessimistic that sounds but I really don't see any other way it is going to work out. There is WAY too much funny money out there. It is like our global monetary policy stopped reflecting reality and is now almost a complete fabrication. At the best, it is a house of cards.

This year I am going to put 1/3rd to half of my day job income into bitcoin and bitcoin investments.  It is not that I see bitcoin raising so fast in the future, it is more that I see the print-storms of fiat currency losing value against bitcoin, which is a limited something with a growing demand.

If anyone wants to talk bubbles and crashes I think USD should be on the top of the list. You can only kick a can so many times down the road before it falls into a ditch.

considering BTC has gone from 0.001 cent to 1000K or something like that, this is 10^6 ~ 10^5 growth.

to go to 100k a coin is only 10^2.

the hard part has already been done. the proof that you can go to a $10 Billion market cap is no longer theoretical. It is a historical fact.

Go back to before 2009 and try and convince any one this was ever possible, and be laughed at by well, every one, if not ignored.

It so great to see the "economists" and other luminaries be proven so wrong about BTC, time after time after time. They have pronounced it dead a few times now only to see it come back orders of magnitude stronger. Nothing in their learning, or understanding has every done this.

Plus the other benefits of btc, and the shear amount of fiat sloshing around, makes frankly a btc of 1 million a coin not seem that much, its only 10^3 away.

It's just that 99.9999999% of people have no idea of the amount of money sloshing around, where is all resides, and who has it, how much printing + waste is going on.

Most are just in a zombifies state of consumer crap plastic state off purchasing.

A flat good size flat screen tv cost less  than a square meter of dirt in many capital cities. Let that sink in.

The fact that a book or theory like afluenza can get any traction shows how misguided people are, that now twe can buy crap, stuff, food, health care, etc etc we are affluent. Go and try and buy a house anywhere you'd want to live.

$1 million is [now] just a bundle of 1's and zeros on some state back computer system that has ceased any indication of value. See your purchasing power of FIAT, yes its going down isn't it, have you ever seen it go up in the long term?

I'm not sure most even in here have actually comprehend where this is going. The Cryto Currency space as a whole is going to leave reshape the entire landscape and cut out many many trillions in waste and poor decision making.

The magnitude of bad decision making at the public expense by govt's is in the 100's of trillions, a year.

The current Banking system costs, wages, realesate, IT alone which BTC tech replaces would be about 1/2 the banks total costs, per site.

There would be at least 1 million banks in the world, that cost at least an average of 500K to run p.a.. There's $250 Billion a year in savings just from BTC tech. That just a drop in the bucket for what sets a floor on BTC tech value.

middle class people within 15 years will be lucky to ever earn a BTC in their whole working life, within 25 years a single BTC will sufficient for be dynastic wealth.

The one caveat is it may not be BTC is could be some other coin, or bundle of coins, so you have to diversify. However it won't be a gov coin, or a closed source coin, those models are incompatible with BTC tech.

Yeah, but it reaches a point where the market cap begins to have some massive effect on the global economy. we are not on the radar yet, but it will be difficult to pass 500 Billion. yeah it's not improbable though...  at this point in time I would say it is unlikely to pass 2 trillion market cap. the implications are too severe.

chessnut, please elaborate on "implications too severe."  Thanks.  :)

There are only a few hundred trillion dollars in the world... many other large markets take share of this market cap and it's is very competitive.
also, there can only be so many millionaires made by bitcoin before it loses it's meaning.
-So maybe you got me there, but what I mean is that the market cannot remain denominated in USD while bitcoin has a market cap of several trillion. The implications of a larger market cap are very severe, but by then you couldn't measure it in dollars.

and by severe I mean new world order.

Okay.  I think I get your point.  You are saying that Bitcoin cannot be a perpetual millionaire minting factory as the global economy is a fixed size?  As Bitcoin's economy expands, the USD and other currencies will lose market share of the global economy.  That makes sense.  Thanks for explaining.

I think it will happen anyway, bitcoin or some other crypto.  I don't think the global economy will shrink due to Bitcoin.  It's possible for the Bitcoin economy to increase the size of the global economy via efficiency gains, productivity, job creation etc...

However, in dollar terms, I can definitely see economic contraction.  I know many here are betting on inflation but I suspect deflation will hit first. Inflation might follow later as a consequence of central bank responses.  However, the next money printing adventure might just end in stagflation and political turmoil.

Overall, I expect Bitcoin's economic growth rate to overcome the USD's deflationary forces caused by QE taper.

yeah thats what I mean, if theoretically the max market cap is the global market cap, it becomes exponentially unrealistic for BTC to approach that number. If we consider commodities and stocks to be in fact equivalent to USD, we cannot expect BTC to replace these in market cap. If bitcoin market cap were to exceed more than a few trillion (thats a guess) it would imply a new world order. the USD out and probably many other currencies.
I just dont want to sit on my computer as a speculator and plot a new world order..... so Ill say the best market cap that BTC is likely to achieve is several hundred billion.

several hundred billion is still good!  :D

 ;D
indeed
we would be virtually rolling it in.

Apple had a near $1 trillion market cap, it can disappear tomorrow without much on an effect on the market. The houses and roads will still be there, your rent or mortgage to pay, transport costs, buy food to eat etc etc

1 trillion is not much these days.

I estimate 300 mill americans alone spend about $100 a day on average, cost of living, power, rent, food etc, etc , thats 30 Billon a day, of non discretionary spending by only the consumer population.

forex markets do over 2T a day



Even I have managed multi billon dollar projects, and I'm nothing special out of the ordinary.

really?
apple 1trln?
maybe I make another guess then.

sorry max was $618.9 billion so 1/2 trillion,

still the point stands,

the real money is not even in private corps, but public money.

from wiki

"Some state-owned companies are far larger than even the largest public corporation. For example Saudi Aramco's value has been estimated at $10 trillion, which is twenty times the size of Apple, the largest public company at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012. [1][2][3]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Aramco (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Aramco) yes you read right it pulls in $300 Billion a year in just revenue, thats like 1/2 of apples entire market cap a year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization)

the real money is in public money!!! and Forex.

here's a list of how may Soe's are in china alone
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_State-owned_enterprises_in_China....

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users

It's like electric cars, the other day I noticed a recharge station at a Ranch and Farming retail store, It was very strange
as no electric car are even sold in that town.
I think a little education of wallets do and don't, and it will increase. Like Solar panels are almost child's play now.
The average person with a lot of free time can do it with ease. You can even now buy solar with BTC! And I'm not talking about 20 watt
panels but 250 watts by the crate.

The price must increase as mining will become much harder and demand increases?