Bitcoin Forum

Hello i just wanted to ask, did you follow advices of any "economist" (or anybody somehow connected with economy, financial world, business etc.) in your life for a longer period (several years) and in multiple fields (stocks, gold prices, emerging markets, anything) and it payed off, that means that according to public "advices" made by this man or woman, you made more money than you lost (following his advices)?

Is there anyone? I find for example Jim Rogers quite good, he makes sense to me, but i really dont know if following his oppinions of the market brought anybody any money (i have known about him for just a short period of time so i really cant tell).

like lots of early adopters, I follow the Austrian school or economics lead by Ludwig vonMises, Hayek and Murray Rothbard. I have done very well with bitcoin, but there is some controversy as to whether bitcoin follows the regression theorem. Some claim that money has to originate from a commodity that becomes the most marketable or liquid commodity, and then is traded as a proxy to solve the problem of double coincidence of wants.

I however argue that bitcoin is a commodity and not a money yet due to its high volatility. It has the greatest potential of becoming money for the same reasons gold became money, namely it is recognizable, divisible, portable, fungible and scarce. More-so than even gold. 

Jeffery Tucker is an economist in the Austrian vein and he agrees.

I follow a guy called Satoshi Nakamoto - he's made a lot of people money for the last 3 years :)

I follow the advice of "know what you are investing in" and don't blindly trust brokers to "advise" you.

Suze Orman/Dave Ramsey are decent free places to begin to learn about money (they are very conservative, it's doubtful either of them will ever say "invest in bitcoin") .

Most of the Economists that I respect and follow don't understand bitcoin.
It's going to be awhile before we get  those perfectly blended specialists.

Hayek.

Suze Orman is a lesbian. How conservative can she be?

Dave Ramsey is conservative, but I remember him advising people to use a mneymarket account rather than a checking account. This burned a few people in 2008 when Lheman Brothers failed. It would have burned a heluva lot more if not for the bail-outs. The guy also has gone nakrupt in the past and advises people to pay off all debt, starting with the smallest, regardless of the interest rate. Debt free makes no sense when bitcoin goes up about 10000%/ year, inflation is running three percent and my mortgage interest rate is 4.5%. If I had followed his advice, I would have sold all my bitcoin to pay off loans and I'd have a net worth of about 20 grand instead of....much much more than that.

Do you think that all of the bitcoin rich know the fundamentals of managing their money?

To be fair I should disclose to being insolvent (since the humor in my picture/text line may not be apparent to everyone). As a r.e. broker during "that" time I was highly invested. My home, my career, investment properties any other investments went poof. If you are "all in bitcoin", good on ya but that is not the way to go for everyone. Would I risk everything again? I've got nothing to lose right now.

Yeah, I was joking about Suze. The word "conservative" has so many meanings that it can be misleading. She is a dyke though, not that there's anything wrong with that.

Soooo, back to you being broke. I was too, but I maxed out my creditcards, and used dwolla to send the money to some magic trading card website in japan aaaand pooof! the market tanked ad I spent eighteen months looking like a dipshit before everyone realized how visionary and prescient I was to buy a krypt-o-currency. Sometimes it doesn't pay to be too far ahead of your time, but if you're right and you believe in yourself, you fucking hodl until you can tell em all to piss up a rope.

Look, the economy is going to tank again. None of the problems from "that time" have been fixed, only papered over. When the rot starts to show through again, the assholes in Washington are going to try to give the dying addict another shot of heroine (liquidity, whatever) and pray everything holds together until after the next election. Bitcoin is a credit default swap on the whole fucking ponziconomy. You may recall CDS investors were the only ones who did well in 2008 before the bail-out. it's a hedge, but if gold is a hedge horse, bitcoin is a hedge Lamborghini.

Orman and Ramsey are not economists. They are financial advisers, and mostly competent, but don't expect them to understand macroeconomics. It's not their field.

Just watched this  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWZXAypjt1o
Thank You! I'll start trying to read him too.

Billyjoeallen,

It was eye opening to see the things going on from the ground floor and I agree...this ain't over. Money as it is; isn't working. The bailouts, too big to fail? That was some messed up shtuff and if you think people get panicky here? You should have seen Zillow and Patrick.net 2007-8. Doomers and Cheerleaders.

There is a certain freedom in having nothing to lose, now if I can only get it UP to "nothing to lose" ;-). I consider this loss as tuition for the "lessons".
 When it comes to bitcoin the tech and the currency it would be nice to see it move forward...freely and for people to prosper.

Having lived amongst many newly wealthy (silicon valley) it becomes apparent that the general public, is not always money savvy.
Smart people, putting decades of accumulated stock options on the margin. One of them lost the stock to the margin call AND then owed taxes on the "gain".

So many things will change as bitcoin changes, so this is a learning time for everyone. Economist who are dismissing this now, are doing a disservice to their field.

Maybe this will put your mind at rest http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2013/10/why-misesians-need-to-tread-cautiously-when-disparaging-bitcoin.html

Also you have to remember Bitcoin is so much more than a currency, it's a form of technology that redistributes control of money back to the people

LOL. My mind was already at rest. I would sooner reject or more likely modify my belief in the regression theorem than my belief in bitcoin, but if that interpretation is correct, all bitcoin value is derived from pizza!  If that's not the coolest currency ever, then you're just not looking at it right.

I don't follow anyone; I use my own initiative. A lot of so called economists are just making predictions based on speculation anyway. If you wait and follow somebody elses word you're likely to lose a lot of money.

Omg hayek is dead as far as i know, i meant someone like Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Peter Schiff.... Nobody mentioned them here... thats weird.

[/quote]LOL. My mind was already at rest. I would sooner reject or more likely modify my belief in the regression theorem than my belief in bitcoin, but if that interpretation is correct, all bitcoin value is derived from pizza!  If that's not the coolest currency ever, then you're just not looking at it right.
[/quote]

Yep.




In my real estate years I followed and studied most of The National Association of REALTORS economists and [mis]took them for truth.
Case/Shiller and Schiff were pointing out some "impossible" but retrospectively clear issues regarding real estate. Shiller and Schiff have my respect based on that direct experience. Neither of them are fans of bitcoin at the moment so any reference to either on this forum isn't always received well.

As stated: I respect them but their lack of understanding in the underlying technology of bitcoin is something that each addresses openly.

Can't wait until a geeky econ mind grasps this and can translate into something my average mind can understand.

I am not exactly "following" ... but Mr. Noah Silverman http://btcmath.com/about-us/ did makes me think about bitcoin beyond the mining field.

Firstly I do like to listen people who share the same enthusiasm because there is no idea, no ideology, product, company, etc that can go ahead without these kind of people. But it doesn't means to have your head above the clouds either. ;D Anyways I do like to listen opinions from regular people in the crowd before makes any investment  ... Actually some studies suggest that tracking 7 nodes is enough to predict the direction of the whole crowd. ( think something like to each bird or fish keeping a fixed distance to the nearest bird or fish.)

I thought being a lesbian was conservative these days, in any event what has one sexual preference got to do with conservatism in economics?

I started studying economics when I was 14, and have continued ever since (over a decade of immersive study).  So far my forecasts have saved my parents retirement money from the crash in 2008, paid for college by shorting financials starting in 2007.  Paid for all life's expenses, and lots of partying by buying the dip in gold caused by the crash.  Earned a modest living, and built up some savings by trading currencies during and after college.  Now, my favorite economist plans to exploit the biggest, most revolutionary, and lucrative opportunity he has seen yet to build a career and a life. (I studied every school o thought on economics I could find, and still do).   It has been my passion for over a decade, and will be until the day I die. 

I don't see how anyone can follow others advice.  At least if I'm wrong about something I learn something, and become a better economist.  Own your trades/investments people.  Sorry if this sounds like bragging.. it is a little, but my main point is  never to follow economists, take their different theories, into account, along with your own, and make your own choices.

The Mogambo Guru made me see the light in 2007.

Ludwig von Mises

Never followed one person and talked to many.  I think making the right investments is also about each persons situation so you could get a little different correct answers to that questions.  Being in real estate and investing in trades has opened my eyes & ears to all sorts of new channels of information.

I'm not making money yet but I'm certainly close now, I don't necessarily follow Austrian economics but I certainly believe in what they Austrian economists say, people like Ron Paul are usually the most level headed and rational out there but the main thing to do is research all theories and look at everything and personally I find that the only thing you can trust when it comes to an economy in particular is mathematics, a lot of economists tend to follow ideology rather than what is actually possible and what isn't, particularly the neo-keynesians who are all in charge of our economies at the moment.

(Thank you for the remind)
Don't know how Hayek escaped me, he was influential to Von Nothaus: The man behind the U.S. Liberty Dollar who is still facing fed charges.

I suppose if you wanted a good example of sound financial investments Warren Buffet has done well consistently: buy expensive stock in his company BRK-A (Six figures) or less pricey BRK-B (about 100). If he ever got bullish on bitcoin? The financial industry wouldn't even know what to think ;-)



Not everyone has an intuitive sense about markets, you are lucky that it happens to be your passion. I hope it works well for you and will be interested to read your posts on how you think bitcoin will fit into the scheme of things.

Yeah¨... the problem with this prominent figures like buffet or others might be that they might be saying something (sell gold! for example) and doing the other thing (buying gold). I think this happened with Sorros... Is there a way how to really tell where the money of these characters is? For example Buffets company, the Berkshire or something, can i publibly view somewhere in which companies does it invest? Because i think that majority of the Buffets money is in this company, so where it invests, buffet invets... Right?

Not everyone has an intuitive sense about markets, you are lucky that it happens to be your passion. I hope it works well for you and will be interested to read your posts on how you think bitcoin will fit into the scheme of things.

Sure Mikcik,
you can read the reports put out by a company. How much of the truth is in them and how much can be understood are very different things.
It is not difficult to view the history of a company these days. (Graphs...oh how I love charts and graphs ;-). It's easy to pull up an old interview on youtube to observe what a person said in order to compare it to what they did.
When I was investing it would most often be companies whose products I used, then I would pour through quarterly/annual reports maybe understanding some of them fractionally by the end.
When you are talking about anyone who does anything well, one thing typically comes through clearly...a passion for it,
often to complete distraction.
Buffet reads financials and enjoys it like the latest/greatest comic book.
Tesla like many other driven scientists, eat, think and breathe science.
Programers read and change code in their sleep.
Writers, artists, explorers....some politicians (before they become "professionals").

You could have followed Bill Gates and his interest in licensing computer software to "make money".

So far economists have been wrong.
Even the ones with the best ideologies have a huge problem when it comes to implementation...humans are in that equation.

And do someone remember some particular case when a subject (a company or even an individual) praised one thing but in reality acting in different direction? (i think for example that i read somewhere that at some time :-) (20010-2013?) George Soros was trashing gold and silver (in media) but still his company was buying it at that time). But i didnt check this info for authenticity... Did anybody of you experienced something similiar?

Who is it?? Who!??

Ha ha, don't give us such a cliffhanger!

Sounds like you have been very successful. What's your opinion on BTC and the economy as a whole?

Do you have a prediction for the BTC-price?

Myself :)

Al Capone's best advice would likely be..."pay your taxes"

BTC is hard to predict in terms of a "final" price as in where it will be once it stabilizes and trades with similar volatility as other "standard" currencies do to day.  By this I mean what price we will be at at the top of the "S" curve pattern that I believe prices will follow.  I feel very safe, betting on something like $2000, simply because the final price will be huge, $10,000 -some people are saying $40,000, $100,000.  With the limited number of bitcoins, if it succeeds, which I believe it will, wall street money will come in, global money, and the price will have no choice, but to go that high.  There's nothing wrong with big numbers, currency prices are simply ratios BTC:USD.

Another thing that I've noticed has been the hatchet job that main stream establishment wall st. press, like bloomberg has been doing to btc.  This has given me great confidence.  The reported on what happened with mt. gox, very inaccurately when any google search would have explained what happened correctly and in detail.  In any form of trading or investing, when bad news comes out, and a stock/currency/whatever, stays strong, that is usually an evidence of strength, as has been reported many times by bloomberg when bad news hits a stock, and it recovers strong.  But with btc, it crashes, then rebounds almost immediately, bloomberg says "ohh it must be delusional miners who are holding on irrationally" The establishment is scared.  They don't scare easy.  This is very good for btc.

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