Bitcoin Forum

So every time we get a down period people hype up a bull run coming next month in order to restore faith, I'm not trying to do that at all here I'm just pointing out an observation I've seen in each dip.

So every time we dip I monitor volume, see how many are selling vs those buying, one thing I've noticed is with each dip the sell volume decreases in comparison to the last, I view this as the amount of weak hands in the market reducing with each dip.

This current dip is interesting compared to those prior, this one stands out in terms of volume more than we've seen all year, we've had BTC hit an almost 10 month low in volume going from 6 billion at 6500 down to 3 billion while still holding a price at 6500, the same pattern has been seen with altcoins hitting seriously low volume levels compared to every other dip and the prices bottoming out from a lack of "I'm selling" rather than buy support.

This is looking more like a period where we are nearly out of weak hands and the lack of people selling low is holding things up rather than buy support doing it which we've seen in every other dip.

To me this is a very good sign in terms of things turning bullish, when you hear about the multiple market cycles involved in a bear cycle, for example the picture put up recently explaining how 7 down cycles seems to be the number before markets turn, it's not voodoo or a magical number but rather the average it takes to flush out all of the weak hands.

If you observe now it appears the weak hands are pretty well done, once the buy volume recovers we should have very good hopes of a bull run.

What do others think of this observation?

this doesn't make any sense to me!
first of all exchanges don't report volume separately for sells and buys so that you can "monitor" that. there is only one variable called "volume" and do you know why that is? it is because for every sell there is a buy. this is a market not a shop you  go to to sell and buy from the owner. you sell and buy from others. so you can't say there are more/less sellers than buyers.

this "volume" is lower because the drop has slowed down drastically. whenever market movements are slower the volume is also lower. this only proves that investors are not sure what to do. they are all waiting for the next move to decide what they are going to do.
if there is another drop then they will sell and if there is a rise then they will FOMO buy. in any case volume will pick up as soon as there is a movement bigger than 10%

People adding buy orders vs people putting sell orders if that makes more sense, what you say is true volume is the general movement either way, but I'm seeing less sell orders moving things down compared to past times with such low volume, even in cases where people are not buying or putting buy orders, the sell walls are not moving down or dumping on lower orders, they're staying stable with the low buy orders.

less people are just dumping to put it simple.

I don't think bull run is near but the decrease is about to end, there should be a great interest and hype in the market for a bull run but it seems there is not for now.

What do you mean you see less sell orders vs buy?

I agree that we might be looking at a u-turn as I'm hearing some of the good news that might help the market. Only if these newspapers could go a day without reporting some nuisance to harm the image of bitcoin, that could really help but I believe they can only go for so long before tide is turned.

Like I said above, even with buy orders completely drying up against the sell wall, people are not dumping on the lower buy orders, less fearful weak hands compared to before.

We might start with the bull run soon as six month almost about to end and next half of the year starts where the btc rise would be happening for the year. So those people who want to make some quick gains should be buying now when price is lower and can get you quick profits during the rise.

Don't let anyone deceive you, we might be in this run for more than we can anticipated for, the picture you are painting is very wrong, people are still selling their coins, is just that the value of most of these coins have gone down significantly, remember than hard would a day pass that a new coin won't enter then market but they are just selling at low price

i agree with you on some point man. weak hands are more likely to sell when they see a first sign of a market drop. and would likely rebuy or reinvest at the first signof recovery. may this be traders or noobs in crypto i still contributes to the whole market movement. But people nowadays gets educated easier and information are all over the web. As we go through this dip we raise up stronger in every bull run.

bull can happen based on new policies and positive news. which means its difficult
bears on the other hand can be caused by a hacking of one out of thousands of exchanges. which is very possible.

Crypto is a gamble. nothing more.

Nobody really knows. For the most part its just speculation. I for one dont think we will see a bull run this year. Maybe in 2 years..

I think so, bear market is about to end and people will come again after this dump. We will start to see green days again in the next months, we might have a hard time to hit the peak again but cryptocurreny will arrive on it soon.

Friends, I do not agree with your point of view. I think the market may drop immediately, Ethereum will drop to $400, Bitcoin will drop to $5,000. Since the market decline is not obvious, it can only continue to fall because only the decline will bring about an increase.

Agree with your valid points. Every time we're on a bear run, definitely there would be a bull run coming on the way. Bitcoin has the same trend always followed and there is a good price expected very soon. I don't think the price will rise immediately but may be within this month end we can see a decent price of $10k for Bitcoin.

Very low volumes of trading, looks very is no hype) But lots of interesting positive new and everything is falling ???. Looks like manipulation.

Its either the weak hands are done or those weak hands learned their lesson about selling in times like these. They would rather hold and get anchance to double up their investment then take profits once they reach that amount or they really ran out of coins to sell. I would rather plan out a long term investment scheme than selling them when the market is crazy down.

We might see a shift from bearish to bullish over the next few months, especially after regulations hit the market, institutional money will definitely enter the cryptocurrency market which could trigger massive buying pressure and, if momentum is right, FOMO will kick in which could trigger a massive surge in the price towards the end of the year. But I don't think we're going to see a bull run like the one we had last year, there's simply not enough hype/excitement around cryptocurrencies from the public anymore...maybe in the long-term we'll experience something like that again.

Volume is an important indicator and the trend setter in a chart. It means that more people are starting to invest and get attracted to a coin or there is a major selloff ongoing when volume spikes. It is usually the indicator to confirm a trend reversal. During this consolidation stage in the market, it could be the whales that are discreetly selling their holdings to institutional buyers at an agreeable price. When Q4 arrives, I think that will be the time trading volume will spike.

It's a good observation, if manipulation is occurring you would think that 6k might be broken very briefly to let the last of the weak hands sell out as their stop losses etc trigger.

Yes we can't expect a crazy run again in this year because which was just hyped by the media but now many people are cautious so chance of jumping into the field is quite less now but still the prices will increase in the coming weeks and slow growth maybe better than the carzy rise because it can convinve the people to invest on it.

We are at the bottom level of consolidation, that is, on the five-month support of 6300. There are no volumes at this level. This means that there are not many sellers and buyers. Guided by the diagram and what is written on the forum, we can make an exit: many are waiting for the new events.

i agree with you, i was also watching a market cycle psychology chart according to that we are just very near now for the beginning of a new cycle so the next wave is going to be intensely up before any serious correction, so bull trend is coming up soon friends.

Market is touching bottom again and again. This shows that sellers are exhausted at $6000 levels. Market is going forward for a trend reversal soon. This year has far been a bear one. I expect second half to be bullish.
I am still pretty optimistic about the miraculous growth about these coins just like last year. The only person who can make profit here is the one who has got patience and optimism.

That looks like an interesting observation, as the price is not falling down along with trading volume. This means people are getting less susceptible to panic and truly believe in the current price of bitcoin being true no matter what kind of FUD is thrown in by the media. However, I don't understand why this is a sign the market can go for a bull run. If it turns out people think the current price is what bitcoin is really worth, more people joining the market will not make a difference for the price, just like it didn't with the reversed situation.

why are you so worried about this? i think that a bull season is just around the corner and we all are going to be happy in less than a few months from now

I hope it's true. But small investors are very hard to bear. Since we fell to the hope, the upcoming will begin.

I am hoping that soon there can be a sizable bull run so that we can entice back the people who lost the value of what they are holding to get back into the cryptocurrency market. Many people are expecting this to happen the next week then if not then the next month...or maybe at least before the year ends. Well, there is nothing wrong with hoping as hope can be the oasis of things to come. I have been hoping that things will go up before the year 2018 will end and if it is not possible then within the first quarter of 2019. We are learning that cryptocurrency is a different market and can move in different ways compared to stocks and Forex which are deemed more valuable and less volatile. Maybe the big reason why we are seeing less SELL in the latest dip is because holders are sold to the idea that a big bull run is just around the corner and they don't want to miss being a part of that bandwagon...it is again the fear of missing out.

Bulls began to win like they need more help from investors and their trust in order to increase the capitalization and the total prices of all coins. So it remains not long to wait.

Yes, let's wait and see because till now we have seen a completely downward trend from the beginning of this year. We are seeing some positive trend today because of the sudden increase in the price makes people get relief and expecting bullish in the second quarter.

my predict is when bitcoin under 8000$ or correction price is above 7700$ its easily can hit 10000$ again,, and if this happen in a short week may be big bull run is coming

Obviously, Bull run is near in Crypto market but Current scenario is really hard to predict the future hype so as soon as possible all the coins are moving to forward. I think next month we would expect the gradual raise because most of peoples are little confused in Crypto investment but again everyone slowly turn to invest in Crypto so next month it will reach more than 10k USD in Crypto market.

Yeah dude i totally agree to you that the bull run is already near, we all are at the last days of the second quarter of the year, and i think the bullish season will happen in the middle of third till the last days of fourth quarter of the year.

everyone hopes the bull run is about to happen in the near future, but I doubt it. if achieved then the bull run is only temporary and the market will fall back by bad market sentiment and other fundamental disorders.

I agree that a bull run is likely to be coming soon but need to see bitcoin and other top coins break out above their downtrends to be sure. Hope to see it happen before end of July.

Crypto market is still not matured and can be to an extent manipulated. However, I believe that the dump will slow down now and good fundamentals to take over.
It is good that weaker hands are off gradually.

to be hones,...
for long term hold i think its a good moment to buy a bit!!

i think the normal hype buyer is not coming back!!! forget it,... there are many average people loosing a lot of money.
they will not turn back to game!
for them bitcoin and crypto is now a "scam" and they will never invest money again. (around 1995 there had been many normal people investing on stocks,... then it crashed a little bit,... and they were out and never came back)

the next thing is,...
there are that less things which are working currently.
i was just watching for a working sportsbetting platform on blockchain,...
to bet a little on blockchain.
but honestly - i have read about at least 20 icos,... but there is nothing out working now!!
(there are websits accepting crypto - but nothing based on blockhain technology)

there is so much inpriced at the moment,... which is not real.
but this is often in tec environment,... that there is a lot of speculation because time is running super fast in tec branche.

so in my opinion,... its a good idea to buy some stuff now.
but be patient.
it could take longer than you think.

why should big money come in at the moment,...? there is nothing really working ;)

As I wrote already now we are so close to time to get results. And when much people want bull run then it not happen. I think it will be bearish sometime yet. "Scam" and "hidden scam" ICO's must die. And it will be good for all cryptocurrencies as whole

its a little bit funny for me sometimes to read,... yeah regulation is coming ;)
crypto was built not to be regulated,... or am i wrong?
that was not the intention about ;)

Yes, Many people are buying the Bitcoin at this level that's why the price of Bitcoin price is not going down. Holders don't want to sell the Bitcoin at this price that's why the price of Bitcoin is not decreasing and this makes more consolidate at this point.

bulls will always be there. be it next week, next month, or next year.

every year the improvement in our technology can make a run for many bull

The market has been falling for several months and people are putting forward a lot of theory on this matter. Some believe that soon the growth will begin. Some believe that Bitcoin will be restored in several years. But it seems to me that the crypto market depends entirely on the will of the whales.

I think you are right. The market is too bad because of the v numerous hacks on exchanges but slowly the real world adoption is starting  . We will definitely see it before the end of the year