Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: stsbrad on September 21, 2011, 11:28:11 PM



Title: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: stsbrad on September 21, 2011, 11:28:11 PM
What do you think would happen to bitcoin say a year from now if it was more widely adopted and being used as say a paypal alternative but bitcoins were at a fixed price? Lets just say $8.00/btc

thoughts?


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: MelMan2002 on September 21, 2011, 11:37:24 PM
How would a code change fix the price??


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: Richard Rahl on September 21, 2011, 11:39:57 PM
How would a code change fix the price??

http://www.funbumperstickers.com/images/Mickey_Mouse_Fantasia.gif
Magic


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: payb.tc on September 21, 2011, 11:43:30 PM
price fixing doesn't work.

unless you punish people (jail time, death penalty?) for trading at a different price, there will always be market pressure to do so.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: johnj on September 21, 2011, 11:49:44 PM
It's been a while since I coded anything, let me take a whack

Code:
10 Print HELLO
20 Print How much are Bitcoins?
30 Input 8-8
40 Print Bitcoins are $Input

It may need a few tweaks.


It's hard to answer your question though (as what would happen) because I'm not even sure -how- that would happen, which would alter things, on top of getting enough clients to switch over to the fiat-pinned version.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: stsbrad on September 21, 2011, 11:58:18 PM
price fixing doesn't work.

unless you punish people (jail time, death penalty?) for trading at a different price, there will always be market pressure to do so.


ty


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: stsbrad on September 22, 2011, 12:42:52 AM

I was speaking about exchanges etc. thanks for your useful post though


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: rezin777 on September 22, 2011, 01:02:00 AM
Do you really want an exchange that is strong enough to fix a price to Bitcoins? Think about it for a while. How would it even be possible? What happens when another exchange allows Bitcoins to be traded for a different price? What happens when I decide to trade Bitcoins for a different price? I think the creator of Bitcoin was going for decentralization for a reason.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: rezin777 on September 22, 2011, 01:06:39 AM
It's funny. In one thread (several actually) we have a bunch of people that are extremely concerned over a possible trader having enough clout to manipulate the exchange rate in his favor and in another thread we have someone who wants someone or some group to have the power to lock the rate in at one price!  ;D


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: PatrickHarnett on September 22, 2011, 01:06:55 AM
Many currencies were "fixed" in the past, and more recently more are floating.  Some still are fixed or controlled, and that's helps the forex world operate.

p.s. I liked the code snipet. Could have just been something like:
10 print "Bitcoins are eight dollars"
20 goto 10


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: payb.tc on September 22, 2011, 01:08:19 AM
Many currencies were "fixed" in the past, and more recently more are floating.  Some still are fixed or controlled, and that's helps the forex world operate.

give me an example of a fixed currency, and i'll give you an example of punishment metered out to those who would try to trade it at a different price.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: Richard Rahl on September 22, 2011, 01:14:02 AM
How would a code change fix the price??

http://www.funbumperstickers.com/images/Mickey_Mouse_Fantasia.gif (http://www.funbumperstickers.com/images/Mickey_Mouse_Fantasia.gif)
Magic

I was speaking about exchanges etc. thanks for your useful post though

You're welcome.

Magic will work though, if you just believe!
Unfortunate for you, it's the only way for your idea to work.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: PatrickHarnett on September 22, 2011, 01:23:17 AM
Many currencies were "fixed" in the past, and more recently more are floating.  Some still are fixed or controlled, and that's helps the forex world operate.

give me an example of a fixed currency, and i'll give you an example of punishment metered out to those who would try to trade it at a different price.


I was thinking about my local currency up until the mid 1980's, but China still had theirs controlled until 2005.  I'll try to find a nice/current example.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Fixed_exchange_rate  Hong Kong dollar isn't too obscure.  UAE might be a little less common.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: payb.tc on September 22, 2011, 01:32:27 AM
Many currencies were "fixed" in the past, and more recently more are floating.  Some still are fixed or controlled, and that's helps the forex world operate.

give me an example of a fixed currency, and i'll give you an example of punishment metered out to those who would try to trade it at a different price.


I was thinking about my local currency up until the mid 1980's, but China still had theirs controlled until 2005.  I'll try to find a nice/current example.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Fixed_exchange_rate  Hong Kong dollar isn't too obscure.  UAE might be a little less common.

well, i read this today out of interest:

Quote
Typically, a government wanting to maintain a fixed exchange rate does so by either buying or selling its own currency on the open market. This is one reason governments maintain reserves of foreign currencies. If the exchange rate drifts too far below the desired rate, the government buys its own currency in the market using its reserves. This places greater demand on the market and pushes up the price of the currency. If the exchange rate drifts too far above the desired rate, the government sells its own currency, thus increasing its foreign reserves.

Another, less used means of maintaining a fixed exchange rate is by simply making it illegal to trade currency at any other rate. This is difficult to enforce and often leads to a black market in foreign currency. Nonetheless, some countries are highly successful at using this method due to government monopolies over all money conversion. This was the method employed by the Chinese government to maintain a currency peg or tightly banded float against the US dollar. Throughout the 1990s, China was highly successful at maintaining a currency peg using a government monopoly over all currency conversion between the yuan and other currencies.

i wouldn't call the first method 'fixed' because clearly it could float between $7.95 and $8.05 for example even if the government was trying to 'fix' it at $8 by buying and selling in the market.

in the second example, china made it totally illegal to trade at a different rate, and i for one wouldn't want to get caught doing anything illegal in china.



Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: stsbrad on September 22, 2011, 01:42:34 AM
It's funny. In one thread (several actually) we have a bunch of people that are extremely concerned over a possible trader having enough clout to manipulate the exchange rate in his favor and in another thread we have someone who wants someone or some group to have the power to lock the rate in at one price!  ;D

I never said I wanted it. I wanted to talk it out is all.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: stsbrad on September 22, 2011, 01:44:13 AM
How would a code change fix the price??

http://www.funbumperstickers.com/images/Mickey_Mouse_Fantasia.gif (http://www.funbumperstickers.com/images/Mickey_Mouse_Fantasia.gif)
Magic

I was speaking about exchanges etc. thanks for your useful post though

You're welcome.

Magic will work though, if you just believe!
Unfortunate for you, it's the only way for your idea to work.


my idea? I just wanted to know what would happen if.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: stsbrad on September 22, 2011, 01:53:59 AM
my main thoughts were would it survive and thrive? or die out because the speculation market is gone.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: cbeast on September 22, 2011, 02:05:56 AM
It's hard to say what will become of bitcoin. It's kinda like Linux. If you ask average Joe what Linux does, they would have no idea that it runs the internet and even Wall Street. The reason that Linux isn't the most popular OS isn't that it's the best idea, but that ideas must be marketable for greedy people. Bitcoin can certainly not be marketed as a brand, for there is no profitability in doing so. But it may well market itself with the power of greed.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: payb.tc on September 22, 2011, 02:11:57 AM
Bitcoin can certainly not be marketed as a brand, for there is no profitability in doing so.

but bitcoin.com can be, along with many other bitcoin-related brands that will surely turn a profit.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: rezin777 on September 22, 2011, 03:53:36 AM
my main thoughts were would it survive and thrive? or die out because the speculation market is gone.


Some of us are here to get away from the control that comes with fiat. I would go so far as to assume that some of the more hardcore Bitcoin proponents feel this way. If someone managed to control Bitcoin (which I see as unlikely at this point), many of those hardcore proponents would be gone the next day.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: BitMagic on September 22, 2011, 04:44:09 AM
my main thoughts were would it survive and thrive? or die out because the speculation market is gone.


Some of us are here to get away from the control that comes with fiat. I would go so far as to assume that some of the more hardcore Bitcoin proponents feel this way. If someone managed to control Bitcoin (which I see as unlikely at this point), many of those hardcore proponents would be gone the next day.

You do realize that the "control scheme" you're so worried about is actually completely automated in Bitcoin, and the very reason why gold is no longer used as a currency: unmanaged money supply will never be stable, and instability makes for unusable currency.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: dsp on September 22, 2011, 05:38:08 AM
It's been a while since I coded anything, let me take a whack

Code:
Load "*",8,1
5 Let a = 0
6 a=a+1
10 Print HELLO
20 Print How much are Bitcoins?
Rem 30 Input 8-8
40 Print Bitcoins are a$ 4,4
50 Goto 6

It may need a few tweaks.


It's hard to answer your question though (as what would happen) because I'm not even sure -how- that would happen, which would alter things, on top of getting enough clients to switch over to the fiat-pinned version.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: cbeast on September 22, 2011, 06:09:52 AM
Bitcoin can certainly not be marketed as a brand, for there is no profitability in doing so.

but bitcoin.com can be, along with many other bitcoin-related brands that will surely turn a profit.


Possibly. I am optimistic about bitcoin, but I'm not sure that the public will wake up and start using the smart idea anytime soon. We're still using fossil fuel, Windows, and trickle-down economics. Bitcoin has a place as a global niche currency for sure, but it's going to be as hard to sell to Americans as the Metric System.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: payb.tc on September 22, 2011, 06:11:15 AM
it's going to be as hard to sell to Americans as the Metric System.

funny you word it like that, given Americans make up the bulk of the current bitcoin community.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on September 22, 2011, 07:18:59 AM
Quote
in the second example, china made it totally illegal to trade at a different rate, and i for one wouldn't want to get caught doing anything illegal in china.

I live here and even have bankers refer me to black market brokers who actually operate within the bank ;D In China things are only illegal of you get caught when someone is having a bad day ;D


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: Minsc on September 22, 2011, 07:44:17 AM
In China things are only illegal of you get caught when someone is having a bad day ;D

http://www.christusrex.org/www1/sdc/tank-1.jpg


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: Jixtreme on September 22, 2011, 01:50:27 PM
but it's going to be as hard to sell to Americans as the Metric System.

LOL.

Two types of Americans will cling to USD: 1) political/government types who will equate Bitcoin to domestic terrorism. 2) Idiots who fall for the crap that political/government types say.

Unfortunately, that makes up about 80% of our populace or more.

I prefer the metic system, BTW, but I'm a Physics grad, so I suppose that's not too much of a stretch.


Title: Re: what would happen to bitcoin if...
Post by: Vandroiy on September 22, 2011, 02:33:35 PM
Some of us are here to get away from the control that comes with fiat. I would go so far as to assume that some of the more hardcore Bitcoin proponents feel this way. If someone managed to control Bitcoin (which I see as unlikely at this point), many of those hardcore proponents would be gone the next day.

This. Bitcoin controlled by US money supply, directly linked to the Dollar? We already have that, it's called name your bank / Dwolla / PayPal / asdf.

That is not Bitcoin. It functions only through banks, needs no p2p network whatsoever, where's the point?