Bitcoin Forum

Post Elliott wave counts and predictions for the short, medium or long term.
Please include charts and short description.

Please, NO Elliott Wave bashing. Leave that for another thread.

Here is my thoughts:

Long Term.
Gox (sorry I was using Gox when I made this) Shown in Log Scale. The targets are not meant to be accurate, but just to show a count for "the big picture".
https://i.imgur.com/PMPxiTw.png

Medium Term.
Gox. Again, the target is not to be completely accurate, just to demonstrate that we are on wave C. Although, the target in this picture is a 100% copy of the length of wave A, which is a common target for C waves.
https://i.imgur.com/GL25tdu.png

Short Term.
Bitstamp. Here are my targets for the current wave we are on in wave C. These targets are based on common ratios for wave 5's. I also anticipate an extended wave 5, as its common when emotions get high with Bitcoin, and I feel like that will happen.
https://i.imgur.com/RWJFI95.png

Some of these targets also match previous support levels:
https://i.imgur.com/eLF2pHw.png

Here are links to the trading view chart above to follow LIVE
Stamp: https://www.tradingview.com/v/vYcIu4uA/
Gox: https://www.tradingview.com/v/Yy9UKJdV/

Edit: Spelling :)

Good work. Thanks
I´m going to use some of these for my mid-term short stops.

we have a triangle for wave four there. it is not necessary to fit this into a five wave pattern as it is apart of a correction. if the triangle is in the form of B wave, then there may be a third wave following that could take us down to 520.
see what happened in december 16-20. we may see that again.

THER IS NO CRASH

http://www.bitbitbit93.com/no-crash.gif

go away. who said it was a crash.

Interesting charts.

Gox Charts...

FAIL!!!!

Here is a stamp chart
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1391920506311.png

With the lack of new lows in the last push, I think either the iv of 1 is yet incomplete, or the 1 of C is complete and we are in the 2. Either way, there are divergences and a few oversold conditions that need to be neutralized before we can continue down, so a pullback is expected.

An A=C situation puts the target near 800. This is more of the case where a full impulse is complete.
If we are in a 4, expect lower targets than stated above. As we head into the 5th creating more divergences, we will get the more dramatic pullback.

nice one.
but 800 is a bit hopeful dont you think? that would be a complete retracement of the latest wave.
I think this will play out tomorrow this at time to new lows.
However, so far we have had five down days in a row. thats a record. maybe today will close up.

not to mention, look at btce, wave B has already passed the extreme. I think a broken wedge situation is more likely in that case. perhaps it will continue trending towards 600 for now.

The 800 target is only if the C=A. C only needs to be 61.8% of A to be considered valid, so that makes for a lower target too. In the case that a full 5 waves down is complete (making a wave-1 of C), wave-2 can retrace up to 100% of wave-1 (typically 61.8%).


I did not look at BTC-e, but I have been told that it has a similar formation to Gox in that the B makes a new LL (Lower Low). Gox has a potential running flat correction going on, and looks more like a 4 which leads me to believe that Stamp would also be in a 4th. Again, I simply used an A=C for the possible target.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1391922503236.png

I'm going to sound crazy attempting to explain my thoughts on this...

I have only one issue with BTC predictions and charts like these...

The size of the Bitcoin marketplace is so small and the wealth so concentrated that it can be manipulated relatively easily. I don't think the majority of the market has shifted from Bullish to Bearish even when the trend indicates that it has. I think even though the trend is down it's more accurately an indicator of the mentality of a much smaller group of people who are simply taking profits from the last period of rapid growth at a faster rate than people are able to buy. The marketplace is growing extremely quickly but it seems like every downward price movement has been started by a small series of large sell orders. The good news outweighs the bad news by orders of magnitude and the price still slides.

I think it's simply a redistribution of wealth but the bullish mentality is still strongly supported by a much greater number of people who simply didn't have the opportunity to buy at a lower price. More institutional money is needed to increase the liquidity of the marketplace so these sell-offs have less of an impact...

well the sentiment is hard to measure any day, but think of all the good news we've had for months now that hasnt budged the market upwards. That is the ultimate test of sentiment. The speculators have pumped the price too high for the commercial buyers, and there are not any speculators left to buy, not at this price. This slipping of prices is characteristic of a C wave, and I think we will all soon sober up to a new fair price of 400-500. (but not for long!)

I can agree with some of this.
Manipulation or not, if you see a price tick across the screen, do you not feel emotion about it? That is what is being gauged here. Elliot Wave theory is all about market psychology, and how the masses react to a price movement.

The last few weeks have had the lowest volumes in a year or longer. I don't think that the sells are pushing faster than the buyers can buy. The interest has plateaued for this rise, and the correction is upon us. This is a natural cycle for markets.

News, and how it affects price is subjective in how it is perceived. Good news in a declining market only slows the fall. Same with bad news in a Bull market. It only slows the ascent. Obviously, terrible news or very good news will have a bigger impact than typical news. But it still boils down to; Bad news looks worse when hope is fading and good news appears better when the mood is elated.

Great comments all around here. Its good to see us elliotticians (spelling?) at least have a similar mindset and target. Ill never post in fucking reddit again.

I think there are plenty of speculators left to buy who are sitting on the sidelines watching and it's much less a factor of price than it is of risk; both financial risk and potentially even criminal risk for large investors. The financial world today is completely dependent on rules. They're crippled with existing regulations to the point that they can't even invest in Bitcoin until the rules are written and explained for them. This is what happens when a nation gives so much power to a central authority to regulate trade. It's autonomous and unnatural not to mention anti-capitalistic...

It seems like the sentiment of the major Bitcoin holders is driving this marketplace. I'd rather look at the number of non-zero wallets created daily than the price points because in my opinion it's a better indicator as to the health of the marketplace as a whole and not just the sentiment/greed of a few who have thousands of coins to sell at random.

It just seems like the Bitcoin marketplace is too small to directly relate movement predictions using the same tools and indicators that can be accurately used in a larger market. Maybe I'm wrong, but it just seems like Bitcoin price trends will change on the whims of a few major players.

I agree, plenty of speculators left to buy, but not at this price.
Speculators are very nervous about this kind of asset. they dont want to catch a falling knife, and they don't want to buy high.
when they say a bitcoin is only worth what the next guy will pay for it, they are 100% right. Thats why a down swing could really scare off investors. Yet even if it fell to 300, I dare say that bitcoin is not worth that at this stage. The support is that much.

Nice thread and some interesting posts.

Not the biggest EW fan I must admit and I do think Pungopete makes some good points with regard to the size, investor 'spread' and age of the BTC market - points which could be levelled at applying any TA to BTC at this relatively early stage.

No doubts this year is a critical one for BTC because there needs to be a sensitive balance struck between regulation and the laissez faire environment from which BTC sprung.

The only regulation you need is the only one that's just and valid -- enforcement of the rule of law. Bitcoin's made it this far without regulatory hogwash, and it can exist forever without it.

Nathanael, the fourth wave following a third wave should bottom within the price range of the fourth wave of one lower fractal.
Do you think Wave C can reach $250??
I hope so..... cheeeeep

But whose 'rule of law'?

I'm not suggesting regulation by a single government but I do think the BTCFoundation should set up some sort of regulatory framework for exchanges etc to provide newcomers with a level of assurance.  That is, we (the people who support and cherish crypto) should do it ourselves before others impose it.

Anyway, i don't want to hijack chessnuts thread with reg talk...just my 2cents.

thats ok, it's notmy thread =P

Im pretty sure bitcoin simply cannot be regulated, people using bitcoin may be regulated by government, but by the bitcoin foundation? they would be laughed at and probably unpopular with their followers.

Elliott, please.

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!! oops :o

http://bastiat.org/en/the_law.html

Nice forecase yesterday Nathanael
 ;)
hit 750 on Bitstamp.

define medium and short please.
It is bit unfortunate to predict any TA ("conventional" or EW) in "goxed" situations like now . Because the impact and the dynamic of bitcoin in those situations  is to múch for propper "following " any lines

I would have to say Hours to days, up to a week would be short term. Medium term would be weeks to months, and long term would be years.
You can also have intermediate time frames and say short-mid term for weeks to a couple of months, or very short term would be the next few sub-waves.

Thanks,
but I wanted the Definition of OP.Just for relating them to his charts
short term up to a week :aggreed
medium term >1 week up to 6 months
longterm > 6 months
These are my definitions

Here are my Bitstamp targets

LIVE chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/AQUcTw6S/

https://i.imgur.com/qDrOruO.png

Im guessing C wave will be at LEAST 61% of wave A (which would take us down to 343 zone) That area also acted as support in the past. All these fib zones are realistic targets, including the 45 (a 100% retracement of A)

Something to keep in mind, the higher fib we bounce from, the harder and faster the bull run will be after.

Not really concerned, just want to see some EW ideas for any timeframe really

And "do what thy will shall be the whole of the law"

Unfortunately, philosophy doesn't cut it in the courts.