Bitcoin Forum

A nice way to visualize how you would have done with dollar cost averaging.

https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/HuTCsoQ.png

There's also this one to visualize crashes:

https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/HuTCZN9.jpg

Looking at the -87% crash of the MtGox peak all the way down to $152, and considering we've crashed -70% already.. I don't really see a logical reason for the price to keep going lower. There hasn't happened anything as disastrous as MtGox for it to be justified, so any further dipping would be someone with an interest to trigger FUD so they can buy in lower after you panic sell. You should be dollar cost averaging heavily by now and considering any lower prices as a gift.

Interesting that we had not seen 5 negative months on a roll from 2011. Will we ever see that again?  Is is possible this year? July already might fail and being positive. But we are only half way though.  If we have negative July , August and September we would defiantly hit bottom on September.

Very interesting chart.However,I wouldn`t compare a price crash with a bearish market.A price crash happens very fast(usually 1-2 days),while a steady price decrease,A.K.A a bearish market continues for about 4-5 months.By the way,at Jan 2012 bitcoin price was around $4.That was the month,when I heard about bitcoin for the first tiime. ;D

It is not necessarily what happened in the past repeated, but I agree with you that the Bitcoin is now stronger than $ 5,000. "This has already been proven when the price rebounds as soon as it reaches $ 5,000."
On the other hand, it does not take a real disaster for the collapse to occur, because the primary incentive for this price is to convince people that you can make gains from Bitcoin. When this mask ends, we will return to lower levels.
Looking at the charts above, it seems like the last four months are positive, and January is negative so let's enjoy a little.

That doesn't change the outcome one single bit. The only thing that matters is top to bottom decrease in this case, and they are pretty brutal.

I remember trading Litecoin back in 2013 when suddenly the price tanked with 40% in a matter of minutes after I went all in, lol. That was my first hardcore lesson to never ever go all in again. I wanted to buy so badly, but there was no fiat left to buy with, and you can't wire fiat in an instant to an exchange to benefit from that flash crash.

People complain about corrections and whatnot, but these events turn you into a mentally far stronger trader/investor/holder. In some cases it may be an expensive lesson, but you'll make that money back x10 or x100 later on. See it as in investment in yourself. You can't lose by investing in yourself. ;)

since one of my iconic goals is the "1 in a million" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1790863.0) thing the main conclusion that I can make from this is that back in 2011 I could be 1 in a million with less than 90 bucks but now it costs more than $150k to become 1 in a million 8)


exactly.
the 70% drop is HUGE. some people don't realize this and just focus on the FUD and repetition of certain low numbers like $3k, 2k,... over and over again as if repeating it can make it true!
I have been saying this for a long time that the circumstances of 2014-2015 bear market is very different from now. the market is gigantic compared to then. right now there are a lot of investors dying to come in or come back in since they sold at some point with profit and want to re-invest. with all the adoption that has been happening we can not have a long bear market like last time.

I don't think we are going to see a 5 month red streak after yesterday's big pump, we may be going for a $10k test as we speak. I don't think we will ever see such a long bear market without any rests again, the market had no liquidity back then, nowadays there are more fluctuations.




It is only a matter of time now that 21 bitcoin costs you more than $1,000,000. There are note enough millionaires if they wanted to own 1, let alone 21, it's simple math. This will happen in the near future, a couple of years max.

With adoption continuing to grow, and hence demand, along with bitcoin's limited supply and slow, disinflationary emission curve, it's really not a surprise that prices have continued to go up in the long term despite some rough patches here and there.

Dollar cost averaging in my opinion is definitely the best strategy for managing your investments right now.

This is just another bear market which presents a great buying opportunity as in my opinion, we are still extremely early as adopters. With prices this low, you can't really time your buys at the absolute bottom, which is why dollar cost averaging is such a great strategy. Prices are unlikely to fall much lower anyways, even though I don't think that $6k will be the absolute bottom.

It would really happen soon mate, we need to wait for the perfect time. That probably less than a year or a year after, and hopefully those big whales will again play a big role here. Because we can't do this all alone, that traders who had few amounts of dollars invested couldn't accommodate their particular with the growing demand of bitcoin. If that will make bitcoin cost around $1m, maybe the expensive value will be a good opportunity for the sellers who want to grab their profitable earnings instantly.

Seems like Bitcoin tends to be in green at the end of the year and red at the beginning of the year. Maybe just a coincidence, maybe something seasonal?


Yeah, the price won't go below 5k, or maybe even below 6k, but it also shouldn't be going up now, half a year from ATH is way too early for the new bull run. Even end of this year is too optimistic for a new bull run, unless we'll have some really good news. The next year also makes more sense because people will start preparing for the halvening which will happen in 2020.

Wow very informative chart, so that's why there are people comparing this year to 2014 charts because of what happened with that entire year.

I can't wait to see what will be the percentage of gain for this year.

This year it was 4 months red and while last year it's only 3 but it wasn't that high, still close enough if we'll compare the months of struggling not with the percentage.  :)

Wooow this is a fantastic chart! it shows us that bitcoin is still alive and will make some surprise for all.
Still not bad then 2011 and its a good signal for me.
2011 is the worst year i had in crypto and i sold all of my rypto that year what a mistake!

this helps to give us a positive idea of bitcoins going green at the end of the year so the price down 70% is already low so better do DCA just to be safe and sell at end of year..

Nice Chart! so hope we get all green by end of the year just like in 2014 with the ups and downs now. Lets invest wisely and wait for the good returns this year.

It is simple dollar cost averaging (DCA) don't work in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies, this types of investments cannot be maximize just by buying it at any price and sitting on it as it is volatile meaning there are many good entry points when buying it. This chart where they show that we buy at the first day of the month and sell and turn out on a loss in the last day of the month shows us that there are many good window of opportunity by waiting at the best price possible during those months. If you really value your money waiting for the right time to buy is your best option. Some even consider shorting all their holdings if they want to have more at a cheaper price.

Sure, if you are able to mine tops and bottoms, you make a lot of money (minus taxes) the problem is, timming these is extremely difficult and you may get stuck in a bad position. By studying the data, it shows that you would have had good profits by simple monthly dollar cost averaging the market and holding all the BTC. You also save from the stress of having to constantly monitor the market which is very time consuming and most people can't afford doing that.

I think dollar cost average makes sense for most of the population which most likely are stuck in wage-slaving jobs which consume most of their time, not allowing them to take sound decisions which would require a clear head and free time, and I can understand they would rather rest than do that.

I dont think this month will be negative. We are having last pump before capitulation in September.


About $1 million Bitcoin. I read highest price ever yesterday. Someone predicted $100 million Bitcoin in 2030.   He calculated if all currencies gets abandoned and only Bitcoin is used. Of course if USD have zero inflation in 12 years. That is impossible right now but considering it will get replaced USD should have hyperinflation.

As it seems July will be positive month after two negative. I do not believe August will be a positive one. But lets just hope it will be.

Your analysis and stats show that hodl is the right strategy and the long term hodlers have earned biggest gains, while the newbies and deseperate investors that want to get rich over night were complaining everyday in the last downtrend, im sure the last part of this year will again give us huge gains.

That goes up even for stocks, but people fail to understand that. If after decades of history people still don't understand how markets function, they never will and for that reason remain ignorant for ever. DCA is the best way for even the worst noobs to build up value throughout the years. It requires no technical analysis, no understanding of how markets function, nothing. You just buy Bitcoin with a fixed amount of fiat once a month and you are good to go. I still do it because I know there is nothing else I can do with my fiat with interest rates being historically low. Currently the best interest rate my bank can offer me is 0.12% lol. Years and years ago it was close to 5%.

Well wasn't the ETF decision delayed to September? If nothing strange happens, the bull run will continue through the entirety of august up to September until the SEC says whatever they want to say (which will most likely be a no, because I still don't see how a Bitcoin ETF is possible, since the SEC only does ETF for things they can control and manipulate)

They will most likely pull another short, smoke all the noobs that still think government decisions can kill Bitcoin, and just like the ETF denial we had a couple days ago, we'll see some red candles, another "Bitcoin is dead" period, then the bull run continues, so it may be time to pick cheap coins again.

ETF was declined, but they keep applying this was like 10th decline. It is talk of ETF from time I joined crypto in 2014 and was old news back then. It just keep popping up.

But who would buy on the first day and sell on the last day of the month? What a silly way of picturing it. I'm sure somewhere, some journalist is painting a dreary picture about the doom of bitcoin with that data. That's not a reasonable investment strategy.

The images of the crashes are interesting though because it shows how quickly bitcoin moves when it decides to correct. You can even see these kinds of movements on the smaller timeframes too. They are just sudden violent jerks in one direction, oftentimes followed by a quick retrace as everyone rushes in to buy the dip.