Bitcoin Forum

I have created this page to discuss buy order placement strategies for those holding fiat looking to buy BTC at favoured prices in this bear market.

My idea is to place equally sized buy orders (1xBTC) at $20 intervals starting at 407 and lower to 227. I know these numbers are a bit greedy, but the point that I can sleep well at night with these orders on, because Im not making any large bets in any given trade. It means I can benefit from flash crashes.

What are your strategies?

We all look back at that drop to $100 and wish we had bought at that price.

The thing is, if we all had orders at those low prices it would not have dropped to $100.

You missed the flash crash. Move on. Look to the current market cycle. We will likely stay i

Perhaps equally as important as the limit price is the venue.  BTC-E crashed to 102 but many people with orders in that range did not get filled.  Likewise BFX.  Stamp did not crash but to 530, yet at least they filled orders.

that flash crash was probably a mistake. just because it has happened doesn't mean prices should not enter the territory of 300 - 500 again, Im sure there are many people who expect this other than myself.

having said that, Im darn sure it wont get past 102 again though.

The fact that there are so many reports of people not getting their orders filled on the two dodgy bastard USD exchanges, suggest to me that it was rather more 'theft' than a 'mistake'. Theft on whose part remains a mystery. Any exchange that has a flash spike to $10K USD, resulting in some people losing money, or flash crashes to $100 USD, resulting in lots of people losing money and lots more not getting orders filled, are exchanges that should be avoided.

I think your buy-in orders sounds like a pretty good plan. Never mind placing only small amounts, throw the fkn sink at orders in that range. Bitcoin looks certain to go below $540 support at some point, and the next real obvious price whiplashing point below that is $380......and who knows, it might get down there in one rapid classic Bitcoin mega-crash. Not like we haven't seen it 20 times before.

My strategy is roughly the same, just remember, you want to catch *crashes* on both sides, so that when the price spikes up to say..... $1200 you get a piece of that action as well.

What I've learned so far is: Definitely keep some crazy low bids open, and always keep a nice supply of dry powder for when you see the reversal...

Good luck out there!

BFX operators have publicly stated they will roll back flash crashes to protect their lenders.

I guess I'm going to have to move off of bfx because that's where I have all my bids set up for flash crashes. That sucks.

Is catching crashes worth the risk of having money on an exchange for long periods of time? Take a look at the historical Bitcoin exchange failure rate. The current batch is probably stronger than what we had before, but I'd be very surprised if we didn't see at least one major exchange fold and leave their users hanging within the next few years.

Usually you see the signs of a failing exchange for many months before they actually fail. Example, Mt.Gox was predictable for quite some time.

I also use a range but with a triangular shaped distribution (weighted in fiat) as opposed to your rectangular one weighted in BTC.
How that works: I guess a value that has the highest likeliness of being hit within the range. Then I distribute my bids at fixed price levels: the height of the bid is proportional to the relative height of a triangle whose base is the chosen range, and whose max height coincides with my highest bid at my best guess value. The two legs of the triangle need not be symmetric so I can have some bids even in the low 200s.

Sorry if it sounds confused - English is not my first language.

OTOH I do have a feeling that this one bubble won't play like 2013 just because everyone else here expects it to do so, thus effectively slowing down the collapse. This makes me nervous because at worst we could see the 100's in a killing slow decline (2011-style) and I'm not psychologically prepared for such a slow struggle.

Snap!

2011 was a 90% crash when all was said was done. April 2013 was around ~ 60%. so I am guessing a lot of people are expecting this one to be even less in some kind of inverse exponential manner. I think a lot of people believe the bear trend will reverse here just as soon as MtGox sorts their shit out.

I agree. Slow grind down, probably $100-$150 because thats where people will really feel they are doomed.

It feels bad now. It will feel worse then. Buying all the way down again, never spending what I can't afford to lose... same old... (sick feeling)

Although I'd love to see coins that cheap so I could buy a boatload, I just don't see that happening.  Why?  Because anyone who has studied the Trendline theory and believes in it will see that a dip to the $150-100 level and stay there for a long time (without 2+ million bitcoiners and many whales scooping them up instantly) would be almost catastrophic to the overall trend.  Might as well get out of the game completely if that happens.  Which is why I'm pretty convinced it'll stay ~$500's, with perhaps a flash crash to a bit lower.

90% of the price during the 2011 bubble was WELL above the trendline support level for the number of users at the time.  That's why it took so long for the price to recover to that ATH.

The price is just now just at the trendline support level, and the trendline average price is growing every day that passes.  And I'm not just talking about the support bids you see on the exchanges.  I'm talking about the 2+ million bitcoiners (+ 10,000 per day that are new to bitcoin) waiting off exchange with fiat in their banks, ready to come out of the blue and pounce the minute they see the support price drop below the expected "trendline" support price (that's in their head, of course).

Do you *want* it to stay $500's though?... I do.

I think that's the best indicator as to why it will not. Everyone kept talking about wall st getting into the market, well here it is... not as rosy as everyone thought though...

I hate the idea that it might go as low as $100. Its terrifying. I expect everyone else feels the same. Until we reach those levels, then despair truly has not set in.

(Just in case anyone thinks I have turned bear, I haven't. Still HODLing! Still Buying...)

Hehe, yeah I understand how you feel.  On the one hand I don't want it to go below $500, for multiple reasons.  Because for one thing I bought a few coins at $1000, ugh (newb mistake).  I sold a bunch at $850 to buy back lower.  So I'm trying to even the odds with a new position.  Also, because if it ever reverted to pre-bubble levels I would seriously start to question if bitcoin's growth is truly exponential.

But that being said, my only goal right now is to grow the number of coins I hold.  I've got about $20K waiting in the wings to buy more.  Looking at an entry point of around $550-500 or so, I'd be happy with that, even if it flash crashed a little lower.

And honestly if it went to $150 I'd probably still buy like crazy, with whatever money I had, even though the trendline growth would be severly broken.

I'm a short term bear, but truly a long term perma-bull.  I believe in bitcoin for at least the next several years, and I think a lot of other people do too (just look at the user growth).

Love your posts, sgbett. You always seem to be a clear mind (with the history to back it up) amidst the storm that is this forum sub-section.

Do you think that these plateaus at $800 and now $600-$650ish make first-time bitcoin purchases attractive to newcomers who see the November ATH in the rear view mirror but want to be a part of bitcoin? It certainly seems feasible that if Gox truly fixes withdrawal issues (which is a statement that will undoubtedly receive ridicule below) that it could extend this current level out further and garner brand new buy support.

I'd love to think it was going back to $100, but
1) that's below the trendline, back to prices way before bitcoin got so much press
2) who here WOULDN'T buy a fat bunch of coins at $300, $250, $200?!

Selling now is insane, just misplaced greed trying to chase a few bucks, everybody has heard the horribly bad news and it could have been much worse, but Im sure its basically over.

Might take a while to rebound but I think any further decline would be small. Im for buying right now all the way up to $900-1000

FTFY