Bitcoin Forum

Will saying that bitcoin's fair value is above $10,000 be a more realistic statement on the price of bitcoin? I reckon it is. But wouldn't it then make Tom Lee's price prediction of $25,000 on December of 2018 more of a surety than a slight possibility? That is only a 2.5x gain for bitcoin, which it can easily make.

http://thecryptorex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/1_fmxZjTEnkkohwq9DwyzRGg.png

Over the weekend, Bitcoin prices remained pretty stable with buyers jumping at $7,100 rejecting depreciation below $7,000. In any case, what we have is a nice bullish engulfing candlestick bouncing off a key support line at $6,000 following last week’s rapid gains. Even though our Bitcoin (BTC) longs are active in line with our trade plan, adding more with stops at $7,000 and first bull targets at $10,000 will be a nice trading plan.

From the news, Institutional involvement is and shall continue to be the lifeline of tradable assets irrespective of the exchange’s location or size.

Read in full https://www.banklesstimes.com/2018/07/22/bitcoin-btc-technical-analysis-with-institutional-involvement-btc-fair-value-above-10000/amp/

i actually believe that $10k was the real bottom and after the bubble burst and correction price should have stayed at $10k or at the very least in $9k range. and i consider that particular drop that broke the $10k support a pure manipulation.

but that still doesn't make Lee's prediction possible. it doesn't matter what we consider "fair value", the current price is important and it is $7k+ and it takes a lot of money for it to go from here to $25k. even at $10k that is still 2.5x gain which is HUGE not "easy"! for 5 months.

What is the definition of fair value? The fair value can be decided by just 2 things, the price people willing to trade, and the mining cost of one Bitcoin.

The current value of the bitcoin is fair value for me, ;D

To be honest I never expect the $10K or $7K even when the two  years back so we need to be satisfied with the price.But when comparing the mining cost $7000 looks okay but $25K will be much profitable so which is fair?

It is a complex concept and it is even more complex in the case of bitcoin. When people try to establish the fair value of a company’s shares, they take into account their total assets, total debt, cash flow, past recent and projected growth etc.

In the case of bitcoin, you don’t have any future expected cash flow from it, nor debt or assets. Guessing a fair value consists in guessing adoption and mining costs, as you say.

Talking about the fair value of some shares has more sense than talking about the fair value of bitcoin, although in both cases it consist in guessing but in the case of shares it is backed by more numbers.

I'm so weak, fell for it and I've clicked the the link.

Anyways, the article focuses more on charts and the rumor about CoinBase's hidden actions. (no spoilers)
I've seen a lot of related rumors around here in the speculations board and there aren't much of a difference except of the enthralling format.

Probably this was just posted here to gain more traffic, but who am I to judge, there's nothing wrong with it.

I don't know about you guys but I struggle to come up with an objective range for what's "fair value". I mean, say it however you want, but the market price right now is always going to be the real price. How do you measure fair value? According to the side of the coin you're on, it's anything from $0 to $1million. But what people are willing to pay for it in the here and now? That's the value we've got to deal with in dollars.


You and me both. And I learnt nothing new, except my brain's right side is flickering a little.

The value of the bitcoin will never be fair unless it changes all the other currencies of the world. The fact is that bitcoin is an awesome technology and the coins should be valued at much higher price than it is right now.

So many variables dictate what ‘a fair price for bitcoin is’.

All I know is that anybody buying now at current prices is 100% (yes I’m that sure) to make very good profit in the medium to long term future.

Bitcoin's fair value is the latest exchange rate, period.

If people thought Bitcoin's fair value was above current levels, they would have started buying the market up till the point where fair becomes expensive.

Even if you strongly believe that Bitcoin will be worth $1 million at some later point, which I am sure al lot people believe in that scenario, you won't buy my coins for $10,000 a pop if I offered them to you for that price. Why? Because it's expensive in relation to the latest exchange rate. Why would you buy my coins for $10,000 if enough people are selling them for $7700? It's very simple logic, but still very difficult to understand for people.

i think "fair value" is a wrong term to use here. it seems to me that the term that should have been used is "Intrinsic Value". in which case you can say that intrinsic value of bitcoin is above $10k and i can see how it can be true. it is basically a price that you come up with after fundamental analysis which is why it is also referred to "Fundamental Value".

you basically analyse the asset and say it has to be worth this much and if it is above that price then it is considered a bubble and if it is below that price it is considered under priced.

I am far too emotional at this stuff.

When Bitcoin went below 6k I would not invest another Cent.

Now are are looking more bullish are are at 7,7k I think of investing another 1-2k FIAT :D

I think a diamond solid bottom should be $100k, because of the simple fundamentals of how a single man's wealth (the CEO of Amazon) is worth more than the entire Bitcoin marketcap, as well as the dotcom bubble peak, as seen here:

https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/HvOte1l.png
https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/HvOte1l.png

People often draw these analogies with the dotcom bubble and they don't realize we haven't even started lifting up yet by dotcom bubble terms. The entire cryptomarket needs to be worth several trillions before it crashes, people realize most altcoins are nonsense, then Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 10 years later , similar to what Amazon did.

I don't think the possibility of $25,000 is very high, but if the price of BTC can exceed $12,000, then the market may rise again.

Just think of the price at the same time period last year, almost similar growth pattern can be seen on the growth chart. So, things can change and grow massive anytime. By now too it could reach above $25000, only thing required is a massive adoption from few countries. Probably $10000 seems to be a standard value beyond which it could reach much high anytime, which is unknown.

The current price of bitcoin is satisfied one for many people,who had brought at the price of 7000-7400$.Because for a long ,the price of bitcoin is fluctuates in between this values.I had strongly believe that the price of bitcoin will increase above the decired mark of 10,000$ in a month.

In the end it doesn't matter what you call it or what level of fundamental analysis you apply; the only thing that matters is what price can you buy/sell it for right now.

What's it worth to others that you believe Bitcoin is worth x amount if the latest exchange rate isn't reflecting that? We're dealing with a market based on supply and demand where sellers and buyers level out the market to set a price that they are somewhat okay with. If buyers think the market is oversold, they'll buy it up. If sellers think the market is overbought, they sell it down. If the price is somewhat neutral, not much happens and we'll enjoy some level of stability.

There is no such thing as fair value. Something is worth as much as investors are willing to pay for it.

Lee's prediction is very possible.

Actually, we are posed to reach $86k in December, if bitcoin follow the same pattern of gold, and have the ETF approved.

I'm happy with anything above $6000 because we shouldn't forget where we started last year. Not many people look at the charts of last year, but we briefly dipped below the $800 level. From the lowest point (-$800) last year to the lowest point (~$5800) this year is a pretty solid increase. Other than that, Bitcoin's value is something we won't ever agree on completely, and it's all good since we have our own opinions. I'm happy actually to see the different opinions because it allows you to learn where needed, where if we all would believe in the same thing, we would only be echoing what others are saying because we just assume people are right.

At the moment i agree that $10k is fair value but this is btc and crypto my friend and we should know that btc and crypto market can become unstoppable once the fomo begins, so i think $30k is realistic target for btc by year end.

I disagree. Yes, the article itself might be rubbish but you can still learn by reading the comments of the people and determine their mood towards the market.

In any case, I learned that if I showed that article 2 weeks ago we would see the same group of people comment more negatively and would not be as open to the thought that there is hope hehehe.

$7,000 for me is already enough or even $6,000 as long as we're not staying under $6,000.
Most of them are only looking at December 2017 to first week of January 2018.

I think trying to talk about a fair market value or intrinsic value is absurd. The quoted guy is right, the fair market value is the latest exchange rate, or in other words, fair market value means nothing more than just "whats the current price". Intrinsic value doesn't mean anything either. Intrinsic value is entirely based on the context of the current global situation. If the internet were somehow wiped out tomorrow Bitcoin's value would be zero. If the US government tomorrow said they recognize Bitcoin as legal money and all major ecommerce sites started accepting it then it would very quickly be worth tens of thousands of dollars, and eventually hundreds of thousands of dollars. The one thing that bitcoin haters get right is that it has no intrinsic value, but the point is that is not the correct question.

Few economic products have intrinsic value. The only things that truly have intrinsic value are those things you need to survive (food, shelter, water, medicine, etc). No stock has intrinsic value as a company can fall apart and be worth nothing very quickly, and any company can be replaced. If humans decided they no longer liked shiny things gold wouldn't have much value. Things only have value if there is a market for them (or their value is forced by authority like fiat), and they have more value when they are rare. Intrinsic value means nothing outside of a handful of necessities for survival. Usefulness, or perceived usefulness, and rarity are everything. And in the digital age Bitcoin will increasingly become more and more useful in the years to come (assuming its tech keeps advancing) and it is very rare.

So the current fair value is the current price of ~$7700. In a few years it will probably be 20 times that. Right now anybody would be very stupid to pay $10k for bitcoin, in two years saying the fair value is over $10k will be as absurd as saying right now the fair value is over $500. There is no fair value, there is only what the market decides the current worth is. Of course if you are talking about what the potential value of Bitcoin is then $10k is a microscopic number, but if you are talking about what people should be paying now anyone buying at $10k would be getting ripped off by $2300 per Bitcoin.