Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin Bull Run of Over 500% Might Occur if Bitcoin ETF Gets Approved, According To Research


The recent surge in price of Bitcoin that saw it reached a two month high has been attributed to the fact that many institutional investors believe that Bitcoin ETF could be approved before the end of this year and especially by next month.

An independent research,carried out by a Bitcoin enthusiast , Tom Alford who is an independent cryptocurrency trader and investor had shown that Bitcoin ETF has unique similarities to gold ETF. Since, Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin had likened Bitcoin to gold recently, his findings could be true.

Tom Alford said that after gold ETF came into existence in 2003, that by 2011 which is an 8 years gap, its price had increased to about 500% yearly after it was traded previously for 30 years.

Just this week, the Winklevoss twins application for Bitcoin ETF was rejected by SEC, in a vote of 3:1, citing reasons of protecting investors, manipulation and fraud for factors behind the unsuccessful application.

However, many believe that the proposal sent in to SEC by CBOE Global Market that will be decided by August 16, 2018 will be successful.

Read More: https://zycrypto.com/bitcoin-bull-run-of-over-500-might-occur-if-bitcoin-etf-gets-approved-according-to-research/

That is, IF it gets approved. So its still up and no one can say for certain if SEC will give us a nod. Its all speculation and we need to wait on Aug. 10 or Aug 16 (in your post). We don't need any research because its pretty obvious that the decision will be the needed  break that we all have been waiting for. So don't be too excited about or not to carried away by the news. Because that 500% prediction that they are talking will be nothing if SEC decided against the VanEck SolidX application. We even might see the price going bottom again so just prepare for the worst.

Its suppose to be decided this August but why do they have to move the date again? Was is because they need to buy more BTC for themselves or it is because they have the parameters and regulations being arranged before the approval of ETF?  I'm seeing this could happen in few months and when al lthings are going to be clearer, those who haven't bought BTC right now might be regretting the entire days of their life.

So when would it be again?do you have some link budz to share ?because all we know is this will be happening in August this year and about the date of adjustment i have no idea.

Maybe this is the reason why bitcoin price drops again,because of this date adjustment?hope this will happen soon as i am waiting about the reaction of the community and market for ETF

The bitcoin bull run won`t be only 500%.It will be above 1000% and it will not depend on any SEC approvals.
OP,you make two mistakes.First mistake,like many other people,you compare bitcoin to gold.
Second mistake,the ETF won`t be approved,so don`t spread false optimism.The newbies will gonna be very frustrated after August 16.

That's an interesting perspective that I haven't heard before. Maybe it will trigger something similar to gold, but we'll have to see. History never repeats itself but it does follow patterns.

Bitcoin is much different than gold, but it has similar attributes on the market. Namely, it's being treated as a safehaven asset in times of trade wars and other uncertainties. It's being seen as another way to transport money. It's a store of value that only gains over time.

But will it run that high if (and only if) the ETF gets approved? Are retail investors really that keen to jump on it? Hedge funds? It's not a definite cause and effect here that we can state. Just comparing it to gold has no guarantee of success.

Am I the only one getting tired of all this bull run nonsense?

There will be NO bull run as long as the majority of you guys haven't sold your coins.

# Bull runs don't happen when people have stacked up Bitcoin already.
# Bull runs don't happen when there are plenty of bagholders looking for an increase to dump.
# Bull runs don't follow each other up with so little time in-between.

The more people expect a bull run to happen the longer you have to wait to actually see one get initiated. Institutions aren't stupid, they won't allow you to dump on them.

bitcoin bull run of over 500% will occur even if bitcoin ETF doesn't get approved!

so far bitcoin has increased to an unimaginable % from nearly 0 to $20000 and it didn't need things like ETF for getting there and this is not about to change in the future either.
every extra thing such as ETF is just going to be an additional push to make that rise a little bit faster but they don't cause the rise in first place.

Well TPTB are in a fucked up situation. In times of the internet where everyone can get the information he is looking for regarding Bitcoin and crypto, the effects of spreading FUD are becoming weaker and weaker. So it doesn't matter who holds coins. As soon as he knows what Bitcoin is about and has decided not to sell he has become a hardcore hodler.
Otherwise I could say the same about you. As long as you haven't sold your coins, Bitcoin will not move up. And that is totally bull shit! You know this.

I think price will be still around 6000-6500$ if there is not ETF speculations, it is all over the media as next big thing for BTC and it must have big impact on price these days. We see how market reacted on Winklevoss ETF rejections, just because some people think that ETF chance is gone.

Since CBOE (VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust) ETF application is still under consideration and final date is in February 2019 there will be quite enough time we can easy seen new ATH this year.

In your opinion what is causing an increase in prices, just simply the law of supply and demand? People always need some reason to invest, and if there is no good reason to invest in BTC who will invest money in it? I would like to see ordinary people invest money in BTC and make benefits from that, it is good if we can live and make progress in slower adoption - but only big money can make difference in price in a short time, and in short time I am thinking for the period of 5-10 years.

yeah LOL.
Bitcoin will get pumped so hard because of it and because of it too the price will be drowned into our face.
(people will complain about it when it goes down so fast,just like before)
but personally i do not think it will get approved by them,because they're still accumulating it at this moment and it's still far from the point that they can manipulate it completely.
at least it requires a few years time to accomplish such a thing.

Anyone notice how the pullback below $8k didn't even last a full 24 hours? That's how meagre the impact of bad news on ETF can be. I think people want the things to happen. I personally don't think it's worth the hype, but all the stakeholders involved know the psychology that is behind someone like the SEC actually approving this thing.

Not sure all the public pressure will help the case, though. And this August/September deadline? Be prepared to have it delayed til 2019.

Price-wise, no nett effect. Even if ETFs are rejected, they can always be reapplied for, fixing all the points that give grounds for SEC rejection (let's see how creative the applicants get with regulated market requirements!).

If Bitcoin ETF gets rejected you can be ready to see a big slap on the crypto market and the mainstream media will be happy to spread the news using clickbait titles. People have more positive feelings than previously but to be honest there is not more reason to accept compared to before.

The major problem is that the approval of ETF on 16th Aug is subject to speculation. Many experts are mentioning that it might get postponed if not disapproved. I think there would be a mix sentiment if the ETF gets postponed. There won't be a steep decline in prices, rather a small correction and BTC will start moving up again until the next date. In 2014 also we saw ETF speculations which was done primarily as a pump/dump scheme.

There are so many people here that are so negative about the value of bitcoin., to the people out there who are seeing bitcoin will just go down. All of you will regret if the bull run will happen again and for the people who always positive for sure they will benefit it all.

Learn how markets work.

The point is that people don't get what they want because they want it. Why? Because they have entered the market already, and thus will only sell in case the price goes up, where on top of that we're in a situation where there are loads and loads of bagholders holding $10,000-$18,000 coins. In other words, selling pressure on top of more selling pressure.

These people need to sell as many of their coins as possible in order to satisfy market movers to put their capital to work. If you think they will let you dump on them you are delusional. As long as the number of floating coins isn't decreasing, there will be no bull run. It could potentially mean that there won't be a bull run for another 2 years.

What will make the price rally up if ETF doesn't get approved?

Most of the big transaction in the crypto market happens OTC. Do you see any new money coming in cryptos? Look at the marketcap, how much is it struggling to pass $300 billion. Market is saturated and highly manipulated which makes Bitcoin artificially pumped. Thus, a dump is more than expected. What you think this rally of Bitcoin to $8000 is organic? No, not at all. It is all happening because of expected ETF approval. If it gets disapproved, huge fall is incoming.

Etf approval would certainly help price to soar to new highs, but wtf or not i expect it to go to 40 or 50000 dollars in the next four years.
It is inevitable in my opinion, and even at that price it would be nothing in the grand scheme of things

I hope that they can approve bitcoin ETF this coming August and the bitcoin price after few weeks increase from $6k level because of bitcoin ETF so it means there are many investors believe in Bitcoin ETF that can push the value of every cryptocurrency and bitcoin.

However, bitcoin can turn into a bearish market and panic selling if bitcoin ETF will not approve by sec this coming August but if it's successful we will see a large bull run coming after the SEC decide to approve the proposal.

That would be good i think even if etf gets rejected we will see short term correction or panic selling but then btc will recover quickly and will continue the up trend, my personal view is that btc has already entered the bull phase and it will reach new highs in the last months of this year.

I wouldn't be surprised the day bitcoin ETF gets approved by SEC(it may take some time) the financial sectors money will be going towards the ETF which also affects the price in a longer way than directly buying it but at that point we have no going back, the price needs to soar so that the ETF holders gets their money as well.

We are talking about trillions of dollars and bitcoin going into that level of commodity levels in the eyes of the public. It may take some time but one day we will see it happen, cat is out of the bag. Still, 500% of growth in quicker times must be not a healthy one for long term bitcoin markets as slow and steady growth alone keeps persisting. If that 500% of price application will be happening in one year of time then that would launch bitcoin to move forward toward one million dollar levels too.

When considering the money inflow which will be possible after etf gets approved from the USA people, I am calculating even 1000% of bull run also will be possible. But, practical things always will be different from what are the factors we do take theoretically for calculations.

Yeah exactly, there's too much pressure on the upper end and it's going nowhere fast. People who got in late last year during that bull run are stubbornly waiting for the price to get back to breakeven so they can escape without a loss. And they are probably the ones who are calling for prices to be 20, 50, 100k by the end of the year because they are hoping to entice more buyers to jump on while they sit and wait.

What's making bitcoin consolidate now is basically stubbornness of early investors. There could be much more liquidity and price action but it's just bumping up and down because they don't want to get out. I think any new market follows a similar pattern with it's virgin bull run. That shock leaves people reeling for at least a year afterwards.

i say the reason is the same as before. why did price rise from $900 to $20k from Jan 2017 till January 2018? or why did price went up from $6k to $9k twice before in the past 6 months?

it is the same thing now too. we have reached the bottom price which bitcoin could go and it reversed up.

Nothing looks like the OP knew the ETF approval or perhaps review has been shifted till September. This is not the first presentation that had been turn down. I am not a pessimist but I wont expect this strong believe of approval outcome. The disapproval didnt affect the price hike last year. I like to know how many Americans are holding bitcoin to expect a large turn on ETF approval. I read an article of 2% American holding the coin but not sure of how true it is

So you think 6k$ is definitely the bottom and there is no way to go lower? But what is this have with 900$ back in January 2017, at that time almost no one could not imagine so big price pump - it has happened because of speculation with BTC futures and incredible media campaigns who made the biggest FOMO in crypto history. They are doing it again, ETF is become main reason why price is go up these days and next big thing which may push price 4-5 times up from today's values.

I would like to see what will happen if SEC does not accept the application, do you think price will continue to go up just because we touch bottom few times?

In the short term, it seems impossible. BTC is still in a declining state, and the current market is only in a rebound state, so don't be too optimistic.

practically yes. but there is always a small chance of going lower. i have not forgotten that i am talking about bitcoin and it has certain unpredictability about it.
thinking back to $900 time, the situation was very similar to now. there were some people who kept posting 2013 charts + that famous bubble chart where it shows stages and kept saying $1000-$1200 is the end of the "bull run" that we had so far to that point and price will go down back to $200. then there were others who were posting that logarithmic chart showing the rise and the prediction about $10k by the end of 2017.
the Futures FOMO came in December and when price was nearly $9000 and pushed the price to $20k with its FOMO.

and i am not saying ETF is not going to do anything. i am saying even without it price will rise and even without its hype we would have been nearly where we are now. maybe not $8k but certainly not $6k either.
we had the same rise in April but it failed to break $10k so it came back down. there was no ETF news then.

if ETF is rejected we will see a drop but price will pick up again and go back up. not just because we touched bottom but because bitcoin's survival and growth doesn't rely on ETF...

yeah ETF is nice for FOMO and bull run and.... but long term BTC gonna go up anyway if it go's up now or in a few months or next year.... can't matter to much because it is gonna go UP  ;D

Seconded. Unlike stock markets, the crypto market is where TPTB will have to go down from their thrones and mix themselves up with what they call "the plebs". You dont know anymore who is holding crypto. The guy sitting next to you in a bus, he could be a hodler, and you will never know.

Anyway, the previous bullrun left a subtle residue that is running under the current bear market. It can explode again at any minute. So no, nobody needs to sell anything, we just need new buyers.

unfortunately it seems like people have forgotten that we are talking about bitcoin. a decentralized thing that was created so that we don't need banks, government, SEC, ETF, and all their centralization. it is funny that now we are getting excited about centralized entities entering bitcoin market and discuss whether bitcoin goes down if they decide not to enter!

It is funny how short can people memory be, and how fast they can change their mind and start panic. I think bitcoin is still the same as year or two ago, and it will definitely rise back up, when short term investors stop panicking or will decide to leave the market. If you look at this project from perspective, it has changed financial world and still is the best alternative comparing to old banking system.

It is true that the idea was at the beginning just like you say, but it is obvious that BTC can hardly progress if it is not regulated at the level of governments, states and the whole world. Let's say that nothing has been done in terms of regulation, what would be at this point with BTC? Maybe exchanges would not exist neither crypto ATMs or any store would accept it as a means of payment.

Can we succeed with idea of decentralized cryptocurrency in such a way that we somehow circumvent all existing laws, to not pay tax and to remain anonymous? Probably it is possible, but in that case BTC would probably be limited to dark web or as payment between individuals who want to trade some goods beyond the existing financial system.

ETF is just simplified way for investing in BTC intended especially to people who have money, but they do not want or do not know how to handle with buying/selling/storing of BTC.

Maybe this is just caused by the fact that the composition of the Bitcoin community
has changed over the years. Originally the community consisted of cyberpunks, developers
and many people with rather libertarian views.

Nowadays, we also got a lot of people, who are just interested in crypto for the money
(speculators, scammers...). Just take a look at the whole ICO craze during the last year.
Most early adopters of Bitcoin would have never taken part in any of this and yet this has become
a billion $ industry.

even if SEC approves ETF in August we still need time to have a 500% rise and it won't happen in a short time. we still may end this year below the previous ATH.
lets not forget that bitcoin market is still pretty much the same strong and stand alone market even though there are manipulations going on in it. and never needed ETF to rise.